POLICY MEMO



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STRENGTHENING DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS PROJECT

July 24, 2000, No. 2

Russia’s New Foreign Policy Concept

Earlier this month, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov presented Russia’s new foreign policy blueprint, bearing President Putin’s stamp of approval. This document contains important clues about the direction of Russian foreign policy under Putin and deserves a careful reading. In this second Policy Memo our Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project highlights it most noteworthy points and places it in the context of Putin’s latest actions.

-Graham Allison, Director, SDI Project

Russia's new Foreign Policy Concept calls for pragmatism in pursuing national interests and identifies as its main priorities the improvement of Russia’s domestic economic situation, the fight against international terrorism, and the quest for a multi-polar world.

Seven years have passed since President Yeltsin approved Russia’s first post-Communist foreign policy doctrine. Under the leadership of then-foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev, who was responsible for the first concept, Russia adopted a pro-Western stance, declared acceptance of “great power,” not superpower, status (except where nuclear issues were concerned), and renounced its imperialist aims or claims. While the new document contains no serious reversals, it nevertheless has changed in response to major developments since 1993: increasing globalization; the information revolution; the 1999 NATO-led bombing of Yugoslavia in reaction to the humanitarian disaster in Kosovo; the increasing power and influence of the United States; and the armed conflicts in Chechnya from 1994-96 and 1999 to the present. In response to these developments, the new document declares that economic, technological, and information factors have become greater priorities than military power; opposes the concept of “humanitarian intervention”; reiterates support for the UN Security Council; strives for a multi-polar system of international relations; upholds the concept of state sovereignty; and declares that Russia’s chief foreign policy task is to combat international terrorism.

Since his inauguration on May 7th, President Putin’s schedule of official visits has been unrelenting: 9 countries in 10 weeks. In the last week alone, Putin hammered out a joint Russian-Chinese pledge opposing the US National Missile Defense system and stimulated North Korean leader Kim Jong Il to propose an end to his country’s national missile program. Of the countries he has visited, three are in the CIS (Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan), three are in Europe (Italy, Spain, Germany) and three are in East Asia (China, North Korea, and Japan). If these visits are any indication, Russian foreign policy under Putin should be both active and focussed on building relationships with Russia’s CIS neighbors and important partners in Asia and the West. Often on these trips, as in Germany and China, statements of “new strategic partnerships” emerged. This is in part because Putin has skillfully highlighted similarities (over opposition to international intervention in domestic affairs, for example, while in China) while hiding differences (on trade, for example). However, the changes that have occurred in Russia’s foreign relations so far under Putin exist chiefly on a rhetorical level. Building allegiances is important, but turning them into powerful alliances takes time and skill, and at this stage it is difficult evaluate follow-through.

It is too early to tell whether policies and politics will line up: this document could become the guiding force behind Russia’s foreign policy over the next 4 years, or, alternatively, could remain nothing more than a piece of paper. Will Russia and China effectively join voices on the UN Security Council? Will Russia stand firm in its rejection of amendments to the ABM treaty? Will Russia succeed in its efforts to impose its will on pipeline politics in the Caspian? And will Prime Minister Kasyanov succeed in securing a debt restructuring agreement from the Paris Club? These are some of the outcomes that the foreign policy concept seeks to attain. We at SDI will be watching and evaluating events closely in the coming weeks and months.

–Emily Van Buskirk

New Foreign Policy Concept

KEY QUOTES

On the 1972 ABM Treaty

• “Russia shall seek preservation and observance of the 1972 Treaty on the Limitation of Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems—the cornerstone of strategic stability. The implementation of plans of the United States to create a national missile defense system will inevitably compel the Russian Federation to adopt adequate measures for maintaining its national security at a proper level.”

On the dangers of unilateral actions and the pretext of humanitarian intervention

• “The strategy of unilateral actions can destabilize the international situation, provoke tensions and the arms race, aggravate interstate contradictions, national and religious strife.”

• “Attempts to introduce into the international parlance such concepts as “humanitarian intervention” and “limited sovereignty” in order to justify unilateral power actions bypassing the U.N. Security Council are not acceptable.”

On state sovereignty

• “Attempts to belittle the role of a sovereign state as the fundamental element of international relations generate a threat of arbitrary interference in internal affairs.”

On Russia’s weakness

• “The threats related to these tendencies are aggravated by the limited resource support for the foreign policy of the Russian Federation, making it difficult to uphold its foreign economic interests and narrowing down the framework of its informational and cultural influence abroad.”

On shaping public opinion abroad

• “An important area in the foreign policy activities of the Russian Federation is communicating to the broad sectors of the world public objective and accurate information about its positions on the main international problems, foreign policy initiatives and actions by the Russian Federation… Emerging as a pressing task is the rapid development in the Russian Federation of its own effective means of informational influence on public opinion abroad.” Key quotes continued on page 4.

Key quotes from the Foreign Policy Doctrine, continued.

On relations with the US, NATO

• “The intensity of cooperation with NATO will depend on its compliance with key clauses of [the Founding Act], primarily those concerning non-use or threat of force, and non-deployment of conventional armed forces groupings, nuclear weapons and their delivery vehicles in the territories of the new members.”

• “The Russian Federation is prepared to overcome considerable latter-day difficulties in relations with the US, and to preserve the infrastructure of Russian-American cooperation, which has been created over almost 10 years.”

On relations with Asia

• “Asia enjoys a steadily growing importance in the context of the entire foreign policy of the Russian Federation, something which is due to Russia’s direct affinity with this dynamically developing region and the need for an economic upturn in Siberia and the Far East… One of the crucial directions in the Russian foreign policy in Asia is developing friendly relations with the leading Asian states, primarily with China and India.”

On relations with Belarus, countries of the Caspian Basin

• “A priority task is to strengthen the Union of Belarus and Russia as the highest, at this state, form of integration of two sovereign states.

• “Viewing the Greater Mediterranean as a hub of such regions as the Middle East, the Black Sea region, the Caucasus, and the Caspian Sea basin, Russia intends to steer a purposeful course for turning it into a zone of peace, stability, and good neighborliness, something that will help advance Russian economic interests, including in the matter of the choice of routes for important energy flows.”

The Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project works to catalyze support for three great transformations underway in Russia and other countries of the former Soviet Union: to sustainable democracies, free market economies, and cooperative international relations. The Project seeks to understand Western stakes in these transformations, identify strategies for advancing Western interests, and encourage initiatives that increase the likelihood of success. It provides targeted intellectual and technical assistance to governments, international agencies, private institutions, and individuals seeking to facilitate these three great transformations.

SDI PROJECT, BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS

JFK SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT, HARVARD UNIVERSITY

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Phone: (617) 496-1565 Fax: (617) 496-8779

Web site:

Email: SDIJFK@harvard.edu

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See inside:

• Summary, p. 1-2

• Russia’s top objectives, p. 1

• Improving the economy, p. 2

• Key quotes, p. 3-4

• In focus: CIS, Terrorism p. 2

• Expert opinions, p. 3

• In Ivanov’s words, p. 3

New Foreign Policy Concept

Russia’s Top Objectives:

• Safeguard national security.

• Preserve and strengthen state sovereignty and territorial integrity

• Achieve firm and prestigious positions in the world community, in line with Russia’s position as a “great power.

• Influence world processes to help bring about a stable, democratic world order, based on norms of international law and upholding the principles of the UN Charter.

• Create favorable external conditions for Russia’s economic, democratic, and legal transitions.

• Form a “good-neighbor belt” along Russia’s borders, preventing or eliminating tension or conflict in neighboring countries.

• Seek agreement with foreign countries and interstate associations on issues that involve Russia’s national interests, work on building partnerships.

• Uphold the rights of ethnic Russians and Russian citizens living abroad.

• Promote a positive perception of the Russian Federation in the world.

For the full text of the Foreign Policy Concept in English, see:

Policies to improve the economy

Russia’s foreign policy aims to promote the development of a national economy “which, in conditions of globalization, is unthinkable without broad integration of Russia in the system of world economic ties.” Planned steps include:

• Ensure favorable external conditions for forming a market economy in Russia.

• Reduce the risks of integration into the world economy.

• Promote a fair international trade system.

• Assist domestic export and oppose discrimination of domestic manufacturers and exporters.

• Attract foreign investments.

• Service Russia’s foreign debt in accordance with Russia’s abilities.

• Form a comprehensive system of legislation and international treaties.

Igor Ivanov, Russian Foreign Minister: “What is most innovative about the 2000 foreign policy doctrine is its realism. Our foreign policy priorities are now more closely linked than before to the long-term tasks of internal development and are more in keeping with Russia’s real possibilities and resources.”

What the experts are saying about the new foreign policy doctrine

Vyacheslav Nikonov, President of the Polity Foundation: “It is designed to point to the existence of several poles in the world, rather than one superpower…The trouble is that Russia is losing its importance as one of such poles.” (Segodnya, July 11, 2000)

Sergei Karaganov, Chairman of the Council of Foreign and Defense Policy: “The former concept, although it was more traditionalist, had never been published, as far as I know. The new concept is largely designed to ensure support for the Russian economy, Russian business, private investments into the economy, and the like. It is more economically directed.” (Segodnya, July 11, 2000)

Michael McFaul, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Assistant Professor of Political Science, Stanford University: “The document stresses the need to use foreign policy to help solve Russia's domestic problems, including first and foremost Russia's economic woes. On closer look, however, the policy is less revealing than it seems… In particular, Mr. Putin does not seem to grasp the intimate relationship between domestic politics and foreign policy.” (Wall Street Journal, July 17, 2000)

The Foreign Policy Concept: Issues in Focus

Comments by Brenda Shaffer, Caspian Studies Program

Russia and the CIS

In the Foreign Policy Concept, Russia reveals an intent to conduct an assertive policy toward its FSU neighbors. Specifically, the document contains statements regarding Russia’s goal to protect ethnic Russians and Russian citizens outside its borders, and on Moscow’s intent to exert its influence on how the resources of the Caspian should be utilized. These declarations concur with many of Putin’s actions toward the CIS states since his ascent to power, which include attempts to bring these back under the Russian security umbrella and revitalize CIS institutions in the security field.

Is combating terrorism a top priority for Russia?

In the course of Russia’s war in Chechnya, Russian politicians have declared that battle against international terrorism is a top foreign policy priority. On the other hand, earlier this year Russia signed agreements and declarations with Iran stating mutual opposition to world terror. Signing statements of this type with one of the top world sponsors of terror raises serious questions about Russian intentions. Skeptics say Russia’s true underlying objective is to utilize the anti-terror concept to fight separatist movements within its borders.

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