North Dakota Finance Facts

2019

North Dakota Finance Facts

Legislator's Pocket Guide to North Dakota Budget,

Performance, and Statistics

Alley Art

North Dakota Legislative Council 600 East Boulevard Avenue Bismarck, ND 58505

701.328.2916 legis.

September 2019

Published by the North Dakota Legislative Council

2019 North Dakota Finance Facts

Legislator's Pocket Guide to North Dakota Budget, Performance, and Statistics

This report contains key indicators and trends relating to North Dakota's economy, state budget, and the performance of its agencies and departments.

The information in the report is categorized by the following major topic areas:

Topic Area

Section Color

Pages

1. Economic Statistics.................. Red......................... 1-8 2. State Budget............................ Orange...................9-16 3. K-12 Education........................ Green...................17-22 4. Higher Education..................... Blue......................23-26 5. Human Services...................... Purple..................27-30 6. Corrections............................... Brown...................31-32 7. Economic Development.......... Gray.....................33-34 8. Transportation.......................... Black....................35-38

The table of contents on the following pages provides more detailed references to specific data included in the report.

North Dakota Legislative Council 600 East Boulevard Avenue Bismarck, ND 58505-0360

701.328.2916 legis. September 2019

2019 NORTH DAKOTA FINANCE FACTS

Table of Contents

ECONOMIC STATISTICS Total Population Estimates ....................................................... 1 Per Capita Personal Income .................................................... 1 Percentage of ND Population (Children Aged 0-17)

in Poverty Compared to the United States........................... 2 Percentage of ND Population (All Ages) in

Poverty Compared to the United States............................... 2 Gross State Product ................................................................. 3 Total State Foreign Exports ...................................................... 4 Average Daily Oil Production and Average Price

Per Barrel of Oil..................................................................... 4 ND Agriculture and Livestock Marketing Year Average Price.. 5 ND Agriculture and Livestock Value of Production .................. 5 Employment and Unemployment............................................. 6 Average Home Sale Prices by City .......................................... 6 Major Sources of State/Local Revenue..................................... 7 Property Taxes by Taxing Districts............................................ 7

STATE BUDGET 2019-21 General Fund Budget Summary................................ 9 2019-21 General Fund Revenues - Beginning Balance,

Ongoing Revenues, and Transfers ...................................... 9 2019-21 Estimated General Fund Revenues ........................ 10 General Fund Revenues - Major Ongoing Revenue Types ...11 Current Tax Rates ....................................................................11 2019-21 Biennium General Fund Appropriations .................. 12 History of General Fund Appropriations................................. 12 2019-21 Biennium All Funds Appropriations.......................... 13 History of Total Appropriations................................................ 13 Number of State Employees .................................................. 14 Funding Increases for State Employee Salary Adjustments .. 14 Cost of State Employee Health Insurance Premiums History .. 14 Assistance to Political Subdivisions ....................................... 15 State Debt ............................................................................... 15 Legacy Fund ........................................................................... 16

K-12 EDUCATION State School Aid Appropriations - History .............................. 17 State School Aid Appropriations - Detail ................................ 18 State School Aid Formula - Integrated Formula Payments ... 18 Common Schools Trust Fund................................................. 19 Student Enrollment and Number of Teachers........................ 20 ACT Aspire Program Scores .................................................. 20 National Assessment of Educational Progress ...................... 21

HIGHER EDUCATION General Fund Appropriations and Tuition

and Fee Revenue ............................................................... 23

ND University System Fall FTE Student Enrollment ............. 23 FTE Student Enrollment by Institution.................................... 23 Higher Education Tuition Rates.............................................. 24 Higher Education Performance Measures............................. 25 ND University System Research Expenditures ..................... 26

HUMAN SERVICES Department of Human Services Legislative Appropriations ... 27 Major Medicaid Costs ............................................................. 27 Medical Assistance - Average Annual Medicaid

Eligibles and Recipients...................................................... 28 Children's Health Insurance Program - Average

Annual Recipients............................................................... 28 Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program &DVHVDQG%HQH?WV............................................................. 29 Temporary Assistance for Needy Families &DVHVDQG%HQH?WV............................................................. 29 Child Support - Percentage of Current Child

Support Collected ............................................................... 30 Children and Family Services -

Number of Children in Foster Care .................................... 30 State Hospital and Life Skills and Transition Center

(LSTC) - Average Daily Census ......................................... 30

CORRECTIONS Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation

FTE Positions, Inmates, and General Fund Appropriations..................................................................... 31 Parole and Probation.............................................................. 31 Recidivism Rates .................................................................... 32

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Department of Commerce General Fund Appropriations...... 33 Total Appropriations for Unmanned Aircraft

Systems Program ............................................................... 33 Private Sector Businesses...................................................... 34 Industrial Jobs......................................................................... 34

TRANSPORTATION State Highways - Funding History.......................................... 35 2019-21 Estimated Highway Tax Distribution

Fund Allocations.................................................................. 35 Estimated Federal Highway Funding ..................................... 36 Motor Fuels Taxes................................................................... 36 History of Consumption and Miles Traveled in ND ................ 36 Miles of Roadways in ND - 2018............................................ 36 Estimated Highway Construction Costs Per Mile .................. 37 ND Bridge System Condition.................................................. 37 ND Interstate System Ride Trends......................................... 37

Economic Statistics

ECONOMIC STATISTICS

TOTAL POPULATION ESTIMATES (Based on 2010 Census Data and Estimates)

800,000

775,000 750,000

754,022 737,382

754,353

755,176

760,077

725,000

700,000

675,000

650,000

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Year

Population1

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

737,382 754,022 754,353 755,176 760,077

1Based on July 1 population estimates

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Annual Percentage

Change

2.13% 2.26% 0.04% 0.11% 0.65%

PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME

$65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000

$56,101 $53,619 $47,060 $48,985

2014

2015

United States

$52,716 $52,284 $54,306 $49,883 $51,731 $53,712

2016

2017

2018

North Dakota

For 2018 North Dakota ranked 18th of the 50 states and North Dakota's cumulative decrease from 2014 through 2018 was 3.2 percent.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

1

Economic Statistics

PERCENTAGE OF NORTH DAKOTA POPULATION (CHILDREN AGED 0-17) IN POVERTY COMPARED TO THE UNITED STATES

30% 25% 20% 15% 10%

5% 0%

21.6%

21.9%

21.7%

14.1% 14.5% 13.6%

2013

2014

2015

North Dakota

21.2% 20.3%

13.0% 12.4%

2016

2017

United States

The poverty thresholds in 2017 were $12,488 for one person and $24,858 for a family of four.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

PERCENTAGE OF NORTH DAKOTA POPULATION (ALL AGES) IN POVERTY COMPARED TO THE UNITED STATES

25%

20% 15%

15.4% 15.6%

15.5%

15.1%

14.6%

10% 5%

11.9%

11.9%

11.5%

11.2%

11.0%

0% 2013

2014

2015

North Dakota

2016

2017

United States

The poverty thresholds in 2017 were $12,488 for one person and $24,858 for a family of four.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

2

$60,000 $50,000

GROSS STATE PRODUCT Total Gross State Product

(Amounts Shown in Millions)

$58,547 $54,938 $50,772 $51,612

$54,714

$40,000

$30,000 $20,000

6.2% decrease

7.6% decrease

1.7% increase

6.0% increase

$10,000

$0

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2018 Gross State Product by Major Industry

Other 21.0%

Ag/forestry/ fishing/hunting

4.4%

Mining (including oil extraction)

11.6%

Government 11.2%

Construction 5.8%

Manufacturing 7.4%

Health care and social assistance

7.9%

Real estate, rental, and

leasing 11.8%

Wholesale trade 8.9%

Finance and insurance 4.6%

Retail trade 5.4%

Gross State Product (Amounts Shown in Millions)

Major Industry

2014 2015 2016 2017

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting

$3,009 $2,669 $2,833 $2,447

Mining

10,409 6,214 4,021 4,912

Construction

4,068 4,042 3,750 3,185

Manufacturing

3,662 3,801 3,460 3,701

Wholesale trade

5,155 5,119 4,571 4,546

Retail trade

3,163 3,221 2,999 2,947

Finance and insurance

2,336 2,509 2,377 2,424

Real estate, rental, and leasing

5,952 6,168 6,041 6,138

Health care and social assistance

3,593 3,847 4,059 4,214

Government

5,319 5,808 5,896 6,096

Other

11,881 11,540 10,765 11,002

Total

$58,547 $54,938 $50,772 $51,612

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2018 $2,418

6,322 3,174 4,042 4,894 2,971 2,518 6,437

4,314

6,122 11,502 $54,714

3

Economic Statistics

Economic Statistics

TOTAL STATE FOREIGN EXPORTS (Amounts Shown in Millions)

$10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0

$4,027 2015

$5,294 2016

$5,846 2017

$7,894 2018

Major State Foreign Exports (Amounts Shown in Millions)

2015 2016 2017 2018

Crude oil Biodiesel Front-end shovel loaders Tractors Corn (other than seed corn) Liquefied butanes Wheat Ethyl alcohol Seeders, planters, and transplanters Soybeans Other

$1,352 291 249 96 82 62 170 70 56 45

1,554

$2,869 270 175 104 89 44 104 109 63 25

1,442

$2,285 1,204 203 221 69 68 98 116 73 54 1,455

$2,855 2,440 255 248 134 129 121 91 72 63 1,486

Total

$4,027 $5,294 $5,846 $7,894

Source: U.S. Census Bureau - Foreign Trade Statistics

AVERAGE DAILY OIL PRODUCTION AND AVERAGE PRICE PER BARREL OF OIL

1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000

800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000

0 Barrels

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

$140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Price

Average daily production (in barrels) Average of WTI and Flint Hills prices (per barrel)

Fiscal Year

2014 2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Barrels 941,491 1,171,342 1,142,973 1,013,629 1,152,358 1,353,216 Price $92.76 $64.89 $36.89 $43.42 $51.73 $55.35

Sources: Department of Mineral Resources, Flint Hills Resources, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration

4

NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK MARKETING YEAR AVERAGE PRICE

Crops and Cattle Marketing Year Average Price (Per Bushel or Head)

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18

All wheat1 Spring wheat

$6.62 $6.50

$5.74 $5.42

$4.80 $4.59

$4.68 $4.57

$5.74 $5.72

Durum wheat

$7.16

$8.99

$6.62

$5.66

$6.00

Winter wheat Barley Oats

$6.43 $6.09 $3.14

$4.47 $5.30 $2.42

$3.69 $4.88 $2.00

$3.41 $4.47 $2.25

$4.14 $4.31 $2.55

Sunflower

$23.20 $22.60 $20.70 $17.70 $17.70

Canola

$20.60 $16.90 $15.50 $16.80 $17.60

Soybeans

$12.40

$9.49

$8.49

$8.97

$8.88

Flaxseed

$13.80 $11.80

$8.95

$8.00

$9.53

Corn Dry edible beans

$3.91 $35.30

$3.34 $28.20

$3.28 $24.00

$3.01 $27.90

$3.04 $24.10

Dry edible peas Lentils Potatoes Sugarbeets

$14.80 $17.90 $10.30 $44.90

$12.20 $23.50

$9.40 $44.20

$13.50 $28.90

$9.25 $48.30

$11.20 $29.40 $10.30 $36.60

$12.00 $23.50

$9.13 $44.20

Hay Cattle

$103.00 $81.50 $78.00 $77.50 $99.50 $1,640.00 $2,060.00 $1,650.00 $1,330.00 $1,450.00

1All wheat crop is a weighted average of spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter wheat, based on volume.

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

$2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000

$500 $0

NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK

VALUE OF PRODUCTION (Amounts Shown in Millions)

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16

All wheat Corn

Canola Hay

2016-17 2017-18 Soybeans Cattle

All wheat Canola Soybeans Corn Hay Cattle

Crops and Cattle Value of Production

(Amounts Shown in Millions)

2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

$1,796 $1,956

$1,777 $1,578

$343

$362

$389

$448

$1,751 $1,922

$1,578 $2,230

$1,584 $1,048

$1,075 $1,555

$481

$410

$359

$312

$857 $1,058

$1,046

$903

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

2017-18

$1,362 $439

$2,160 $1,365

$316 $963

5

Economic Statistics

Economic Statistics

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000

50,000 0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Employment Unemployment

2018

Year

End

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Job

Force

408,710 416,590 412,141 412,465 407,538 402,945

Unemployment

Employment Unemployment

Rate

397,430

11,280

2.8%

405,551

11,039

2.6%

399,703

12,438

3.0%

400,688

11,777

2.9%

396,506

11,032

2.7%

392,650

10,295

2.6%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

AVERAGE HOME SALE PRICES BY CITY (Amounts Shown in Thousands)

Bismarck Dickinson

Fargo Grand Forks

Jamestown Minot

Wahpeton Williston

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: North Dakota Association of Realtors

6

MAJOR SOURCES OF STATE/LOCAL REVENUE (Amounts Shown in Millions)

$1,450 $1,250 $1,050

$850 $650 $450 $250

$50

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

State Sales and Use Tax

Individual Income Tax

Property Tax

Local Sales and Use Tax

Fiscal State Sales Individual Year and Use Tax Income Tax

Property Tax1

Local Sales and Use Tax2

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$1,139.8 $1,267.0 $1,320.2 $1,389.0 $1,017.4

$872.4 $912.5

$432.2 $617.9 $516.1 $537.6 $355.5 $314.2 $366.3

$853.8 $918.7 $900.1 $1,005.1 $1,096.1 $1,177.9 $1,198.7

$191.8 $206.2 $228.8 $258.1 $248.9 $236.7 $239.6

1Property taxes include the 12 percent state-paid credit for 2014 ($94.3 million), 2015 ($105.4 million), and 2016 ($116.3 million).

2Local sales tax amounts do not include city occupancy or city restaurant and lodging taxes.

PROPERTY TAXES BY TAXING DISTRICTS

(Amounts Shown in Millions)

$500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100

$50 $0

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Schools

Cities

Counties

Misc.

Year Payable

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Schools Cities Counties Misc.

$315 261 272 52

$361 300 295 49

$404 324 311 57

$438 354 328 57

$465 377 296 61

Total1

$900 $1,005 $1,096 $1,177 $1,1992

1Property taxes include the 12 percent state-paid credit for 2014 ($94.3 million), 2015 ($105.4 million), and 2016 ($116.3 million).

2The increase for 2018 is primarily due to continuing growth in taxable valuations and new construction.

Based on property taxes levied in 2018, payable in 2019, one mill generated approximately $4.76 million statewide.

Source: North Dakota Tax Department

7

Economic Statistics

NOTES

8

STATE BUDGET

2019-21 GENERAL FUND BUDGET SUMMARY (As Approved by the Legislative Assembly) (Amounts Shown in Millions)

Estimated general fund balance - July 1, 2019

$65.01

Add estimated 2019-21 general fund revenues and transfers 4,823.0

Total resources available Less 2019-21 general fund appropriations

$4,888.0 4,843.6

Estimated general fund balance - June 30, 2021

$44.42

1This amount reflects $115.6 million of 2017-19 supplemental and deficiency appropriations and $54.1 million of estimated 2017-19 unspent general fund appropriation authority.

2In addition, the budget stabilization fund is projected to have a June 30, 2021, balance of $483.9 million.

GENERAL FUND REVENUES BEGINNING BALANCE, TAX AND FEE

REVENUES, AND TRANSFERS

(Amounts Shown in Millions)

$8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000

$895 $4,907

$1,512 $3,438

$940 $3,724

$2,000 $1,396

$1,000

$0 2013-15 Biennium

$730

2015-17 Biennium

$65

2017-19 Biennium (Estimated)

Beginning balance Tax and fee revenues

$1,041

$3,782

$65 2019-21 Biennium (Estimated) Transfers

(Amounts Shown in Millions)

Beginning Tax and Fee

Biennium

Balance Revenues Transfers Total

2013-15 2015-17 2017-19 (Estimated) 2019-21 (Estimated)

$1,396.1 $729.5 $65.0 $65.0

$4,906.8 $3,437.6 $3,723.8 $3,781.7

$895.01 $7,197.9 $1,511.6 $5,678.7

$940.0 $4,728.8 $1,041.2 $4,887.9

1This amount includes $11.1 million transferred by the Office of Management and Budget from the budget stabilization fund to the general fund at the end of the biennium.

9

State Budget

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