New York State

New York State

Mid-Year Financial Plan Update 2007-08 through 2010-11

Eliot Spitzer, Governor

Paul E. Francis, Director of the Budget and Senior Advisor to the Governor

October 30, 2007

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................1

Upcoming Events ......................................................................................................... 1 State Spending Metrics ................................................................................................ 2

OVERVIEW....................................................................................................................... 4 Financial Plan At-a-Glance........................................................................................... 4 Overview of Financial Plan Revisions .......................................................................... 5 Summary of 2007-08 General Fund Financial Plan Revisions..................................... 5 Summary of Multi-Year General Fund Financial Plan Revisions ................................. 7

UPDATED 2007-08 SPENDING ESTIMATES ................................................................. 8 2007-08 Spending Levels............................................................................................. 8 Summary of 2007-08 Other Funds Financial Plan Revisions....................................... 9 2007-08 Closing Balances ......................................................................................... 12

MULTI-YEAR FINANCIAL PLAN PROJECTIONS ........................................................ 15 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 15 General Fund Revisions Since the First Quarterly Update ........................................ 16 Current Services 2008-09 Budget Gap ...................................................................... 22 General Fund Multi-Year Financial Plan Projections.................................................. 23 Economic Forecast..................................................................................................... 24 Multi-Year Receipts Forecast ..................................................................................... 45 General Fund Multi-Year Disbursements Projections ................................................ 64 State Operating Funds Disbursements Projections ................................................... 74

YEAR-TO-DATE OPERATING RESULTS..................................................................... 76 General Fund ............................................................................................................. 76 State Operating Funds ............................................................................................... 80 Capital Projects Funds ............................................................................................... 82 Federal Operating Funds ........................................................................................... 83 All Funds Summary .................................................................................................... 84

MONTHLY CASH FLOW PROJECTIONS..................................................................... 85

UPDATE ON RISKS TO THE FINANCIAL PLAN ......................................................... 86

UPDATED HCRA FINANCIAL PLAN ............................................................................ 88

GAAP-BASIS FINANCIAL PLANS................................................................................ 90 Summary .................................................................................................................... 90 GASB 45 Overview .................................................................................................... 90

DEBT/CAPITAL UPDATE.............................................................................................. 92 Capital and Debt Summary ........................................................................................ 92 Debt Affordability ........................................................................................................ 94 Debt Outstanding ....................................................................................................... 96 Debt Service............................................................................................................... 96 Debt Reform Limitations and Calculations ................................................................. 97

FINANCIAL PLAN TABLES

GENERAL FUND -- TOTAL BUDGET Update of 2007-2008 (Change from First Quarterly Update) ................................... 103 Update of 2008-2009 (Change from First Quarterly Update) ................................... 104 Update of 2009-2010 (Change from First Quarterly Update) ................................... 105 Update of 2010-2011 (Change from First Quarterly Update) ................................... 106 Financial Plan, Annual Change from 2006-2007 to 2007-2008 ............................... 107 Financial Plan Projections 2007-2008 through 2010-2011 ...................................... 108

GENERAL FUND -- REVENUE DETAIL (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS) Financial Plan Projections 2007-2008 through 2010-2011 ...................................... 109 Personal Income Tax Components, 2007-2008 through 2010-2011 ....................... 110 Annual Change from 2006-2007 to 2007-2008 ........................................................ 111 Personal Income Tax Components, Annual Change from 2006-2007 to 2007-2008 ............................................................................................................ 112

STATE OPERATING FUNDS BUDGET 2007-2008 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 113 2008-2009 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 114 2009-2010 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 115 2010-2011 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 116 Annual Change from 2006-2007 to 2007-08 ............................................................ 117

CAPITAL BUDGET 2007-2008 State and Federal Funds........................................................................ 118 2008-2009 State and Federal Funds........................................................................ 119 2009-2010 State and Federal Funds........................................................................ 120 2010-2011 State and Federal Funds........................................................................ 121 Annual Change from 2006-2007 to 2007-08 ............................................................ 122 Revenue Detail, 2007-2008 through 2010-2011 ...................................................... 123 Revenue Detail, Annual Change from 2006-2007 to 2007-2008 ............................. 124 Off-Budget Capital Spending, 2006-2007 through 2010-2011 ................................. 125

ALL GOVERNMENTAL FUNDS -- TOTAL BUDGET 2007-2008 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 126 2008-2009 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 127 2009-2010 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 128 2010-2011 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 129 Annual Change from 2006-2007 to 2007-08 ............................................................ 130

ALL GOVERNMENTAL FUNDS -- REVENUE DETAIL 2007-2008 All Governmental Funds Receipts.......................................................... 131 2008-2009 All Governmental Funds Receipts.......................................................... 132 2009-2010 All Governmental Funds Receipts.......................................................... 133 2010-2011 All Governmental Funds Receipts.......................................................... 134 Annual Change from 2006-2007 to 2007-08 ............................................................ 135

SPECIAL REVENUE FUNDS 2007-2008 State and Federal Funds........................................................................ 136 2008-2009 State and Federal Funds........................................................................ 137 2009-2010 State and Federal Funds........................................................................ 138 2010-2011 State and Federal Funds........................................................................ 139 Annual Change from 2006-2007 to 2007-08 ............................................................ 140 Revenue Detail, 2007-2008 through 2010-2011 ...................................................... 141 Revenue Detail, Annual Change from 2006-2007 to 2007-2008 ............................. 142

DEBT SERVICE FUNDS -- REVENUE DETAIL Projections 2007-2008 through 2010-2011 .............................................................. 143 Annual Change from 2006-2007 to 2007-2008 ........................................................ 144

STATE FUNDS -- TOTAL BUDGET 2007-2008 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 145 2008-2009 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 146 2009-2010 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 147 2010-2011 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 148 Annual Change from 2006-2007 to 2007-08 ............................................................ 149

CASH FLOW -- UPDATE OF 2007-2008 MONTHLY PROJECTIONS General Fund ........................................................................................................... 150 State Operating Funds ............................................................................................. 151 Capital Projects Funds -- Total................................................................................. 152 Capital Projects Funds -- State ................................................................................ 153 Capital Projects Funds -- Federal............................................................................. 154 Special Revenue Funds -- Total............................................................................... 155 Special Revenue Funds -- State .............................................................................. 156 Special Revenue Funds -- Federal........................................................................... 157 Debt Service Funds -- Federal ................................................................................. 158 All Governmental Funds........................................................................................... 159

HEALTH CARE REFORM ACT RESOURCES FUND Projections 2007-2008 through 2010-2011 .............................................................. 160 Update of 2007-2008 (Change from First Quarterly Update) ................................... 161 Annual Change from 2006-2007 to 2007-2008 ........................................................ 162 2007-2008 Monthly Cash Flow Projections.............................................................. 163

PROPRIETARY AND FIDUCIARY FUNDS 2007-2008 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 164 2008-2009 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 165 2009-2010 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 166 2010-2011 Financial Plan ........................................................................................ 167

WORKFORCE SUMMARY REPORT (2006-2007 THROUGH 2008-2009) All Funds .................................................................................................................. 168 General Funds ......................................................................................................... 170 Special Revenue Funds -- State .............................................................................. 172

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