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Politics Early 2020 Profiler$Billions to Boost Candidates and Attract VotersTotal political ad spending for the 2018 mid-term election cycle was approximately $4 billion, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that Kantar Media projected (during mid-2019) presidential campaigns will spend a total of $6 billion for the 2020 election. Although TV will still receive the largest share of the political ad pie, many analysts think 2020 will be the first “digital video” election, with some sources forecasting $1.6 billion will be spent in this channel.The spending had already started in interest during the first 9 months of the year, as presidential candidates and US House/Senate and gubernatorial campaigns spent $148 million, which doesn’t include ad expenditures on local elections.Two Sources’ 2020 US Federal Election Ad Spending Forecasts, 2019KantarAmountTru OptikAmountBroadcast TV$3.2 BLinear TV$4.4 BCable TV$1.2 BDigital media$2.9 BDigital$1.2 BRadio, print, telemarketing, out-of-home, direct mail$1.9 BRadio$400 MOTT/CTV$720 MStreaming audio$90 BKantar Media, 2019Spending by ContestAdvertising Analytics and Cross Screen Media have also forecast $6 billion in political media spending for the 2020 elections, with $2.7 billion allocated to the presidential election: $1.8 billion for the general election and $900 during the Democratic primary.The races for US House seats will spend $1.08 billion and the US Senate contests are forecast to spend $789 million, 14% less than 2016. At the state level, gubernatorial elections will spend $252 million.BIA Advisory Services expects $6.55 billion to be spent for 2020 local political advertising, with the largest amount/share, or $3.08 billion/47%, for over-the-air TV. Digital will receive 21%/$1.38 billion and radio and cable, 19%/$1.24 billion. Top 5 States’ Ad Spending Forecasts for 2019–2020 US Presidential, US Senate and Gubernatorial Election Cycle, 2019PresidentialAmountUS SenateAmountGubernatorialAmountFlorida$339 MArizona$108 MNorth Carolina$56 MPennsylvania$288 MColorado$107 MKentucky*$44 MArizona$141 MNorth Carolina$74 MLouisiana*$37 MNevada$130 MKentucky$58 MMississippi*$18 MNorth Carolina$122 MMaine$55 MMissouri/New Hampshire$17 MAdvertising Analytics/Cross Screen Media, September 2019*2019 electionsTV Is the Influential Giant for VotersTVB’s study of the influence of media in the 2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election revealed some types of media influenced 94% of voters and 40% stated TV was the “most important” influence during the first, or awareness, stage of the voter was also the most influential during the other 4 stages of the voter funnel: Interest, Obtain More Information, Consider Voting and Voting, and more than 3 times the next media channel, which just so happened to be local TV stations’ Website/app.The survey of more than 1,000 registered voters found they trusted local broadcast TV news the most and 76% said TV commercials influenced their online search for political content/information and, significantly, for 86% of adults 18–34.Media Channels’ Influence on Motivating Voters to Vote in the November 2019 Kentucky Gubernatorial ElectionMediaPercentMediaPercent#1: TV67%#6: National newspapers12%#2: Social media34%#7: Volunteers12%#3: Local newspapers33%#8: Out-of-home11%#4: Radio30%#9: Local TV station Website/app10%#5: Direct mail ad18%#10: Phone calls10%TVB, November 20192018 Political TV Advertising Reveals a Winning PathAlthough Comcast Spotlight’s report is about the use of cable TV during the 2018 mid-term election, many of the findings are applicable to local broadcast TV, such as 37% of candidates who advertised during the general election won versus 11% who didn’t. Candidates who lost their elections started their cable TV advertising 9 weeks prior to the election while those who started advertising 2 weeks earlier (July or earlier) had a win rate of 55%, compared to a 47% win rate for those who started TV during August.It’s also crucial to retain enough budget to maintain a presence until election day. In national and local elections, 31% of voters decide a month or more in advance while 45% for national elections and 39% for local elections decide within the last 3 days.Campaign Results for 2018 Mid-Term Federal Candidates Using Comcast Spotlight, 2019MetricLosersWinnersDifferenceCampaign start8/2/187/14/18+22%Campaign duration9 weeks11 weeks+22%Ad frequency1,279/week1,711/week+34%Total air times11,51118,821+64%Comcast Spotlight, September 2019Legal Technicalities of TV Political AdvertisingIt’s likely someone at your station is well-versed in the FCC rules about political advertising on TV, but as the primary season starts in earnest, it’s important to remember the lowest unit rate policy becomes effective 45 days before the primaries.Candidates must also receive reasonable access to respond to each other, so there must be inventory available to those with smaller budgets to buy time late in the cycle; therefore, a station can’t sell all that time to well-funded candidates.Stations are also faced with the FCC’s clarifications about disclosure obligations issued during October 2019. The most difficult and very time-consuming part of the clarifications is station’s assessment and recording of political ads’ contents.Is Cannabis Legalization the Issue Hiding in the Weeds?As more states legalize cannabis, more voters who support national legalization will consider it a primary issue on which to judge candidates. Since the Trump administration is doing very little, this issue could be an opportunity for Democrats.As of December 2019, all the major Democratic candidates supported either decriminalization (Joe Biden) or legalization (Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg).Many pundits think the cannabis issue could boost voter count among young adults. Data from The Media Audit’s 2019 surveys finds 26.8% of adults 18–34 used or bought cannabis during the last month, and 36.2% said their party affiliation was Democrat.Adults 18–34 Used or Bought Cannabis During the Past Month, by Political Party Affiliation and Past Voting Record, 2019Political Affiliation/Voting RecordAdults 18–34Adults 35–49Adults 50+Target population: 26.8%Target population: 19.3%Target population: 10.5%PercentIndexPercentIndexPercentIndexParty Affiliation: Democrat36.2%11038.9%11739.8%118Party Affiliation: Republican11.0%8216.8%7924.7%76Party Affiliation: Independent18.5%10619.7%10120.8%109Political Affiliation: Liberal34.0%10734.1%12733.2%141Political Affiliation: Conservative17.3%9521.8%8525.5%74Political Affiliation: Independent48.7%10544.1%10241.3%109Voted Past Year: Democrat7.5%10711.2%9419.6%106Voted Past Year: Republican2.0%664.9%6212.0%69Voted Past Year: Independent2.9%1005.2%928.8%96Voted past year in local, state and national elections15.7%9924.9%8443.4%89Based on The Media Audit’s September 2019 Aggregate Survey (57 markets and more than 143 million adults)Additional AnalysisA prime challenge for every TV station and their sales teams is the effect on “regular” advertisers’ typical buys during the political advertising period, approximately late July to Election Day, when candidates, PACs and other political groups buy so much time. In its report, Political Advertising Trends: What to Expect in 2020, Kantar Media addresses this issue by evaluating data from the 2016 election cycle. Its analysis revealed that political advertising had a 32% share of local ad time during the last three weeks of the election (October 2016) in the battleground markets specifically pulled from the data. All other advertisers’ share declined from 77% to 51%.The strategy of many “regular” advertisers is to reduce their spot total or wait until the election cycle has ended. Kantar’s analysis found the local automotive category had the largest share decline during the 16-week period studied. During weeks 30–33 (late July/ early August), local auto advertisers had a 14% share of all ad time, but by weeks 42–45 (late October), it had decreased to 9%.Unsurprisingly, local TV news was the program with the largest share of political advertising during the 2016 election cycle in the 15 DMAs analyzed. Shares of 2016 Political Advertising in 15 DMAs Analyzed, by Local TV Programming Type, 2019WeeksNewsAll Other30–45 (entire cycle)57%43%30–3358%42%34–3755%45%38–4159%41%42–4557%43%Kantar Media, 2019Please read the complementary Profiler, Politics 2020: Power to the People, for more information.Sources: Hubspot (Kantar Media)Website, 12/19; Ad Age Website, 12/19; MediaPost Website, 12/19; Multichannel News Website, 12/19; Politico (Advertising Analytics/Cross Screen Media) Website, 12/19; BIA Advisory Services Website, 12/19; TVB Website, 12/19; Comcast Spotlight Website, 12/19; Broadcast Law Blog Website, 12/19; Inside Radio Website, 12/19;e Cannabis Business Times Website, 12/19; The Media Audit Website, 12/19.Updated: December 2019? 2020 Media Group Online, Inc. All rights reserved.For Your Local and Station Information ................
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