By PAUL STONE
College 2005 Season Wins
Paul Stone
Vegas Sports Authority
Many sports investors think only in the present,
longing to achieve some sort of "seat-of-their-pants,"
short-term thrill which might even put a little extra
money in their wallet.
Obviously, most of us do not have tons of extra cash
laying around to "tie up" for long periods of time.
However, it is imperative that sports investors have
an adequate bankroll to have a legitimate chance at
winning over the long haul.
In my opinion, serious bettors should commit a portion
of their bankroll and their college football
handicapping efforts to season win totals.
We feel the discerning player with knowledge of the
teams who understands, not only returning talent and
how it may perform, but also other factors such as strength
of schedule and quality of conference, can do well in
this arena.
Last year in this column space, we released five
plays, winning four of those on Utah OVER 8 1/2 (Looks
obvious now, huh?!); Texas OVER 9; Oklahoma OVER 9
1/2: and Nebraska UNDER 8.
Our lone loser was on Kansas State OVER 8. I guess we
overestimated Bill Snyder's ability to make
individuals better than the sum of their parts, but
we'll take four out of five any day of the week.
Enough about the past, let's move on to what really
matters: the present and the future.
Without further ado, here are my recommendations for
season win wagers in college football for 2005:
(1) Virginia UNDER 8 (minus $1.38) - The Cavaliers had
seven players selected in last spring's NFL Draft and
there were still 12 rookies out of UVA on NFL rosters
as of Aug. 26. That should tell you something about
the kind of talent that the Wahoos will be missing in
2005. UVA could start as many as four sophomores in
its defensive front seven, replacing such stalwarts as
DT Andrew Hoffman, DE Chris Canty and LB Darryl
Blackstock, all NFL draftees in April. The ACC is
arguably the nation's toughest conference this year
and certainly among the top three. The Cavs will be
lucky to find seven wins, much less eight.
(2) Missouri UNDER 7 1/2 (minus $1.30) - We certainly
realize that Tiger head coach Gary Pinkel and his
assistants are coaching for their jobs this season.
However, we do not believe Pinkel and company are
going to be able to do enough to maintain residency in
Columbia. Sure, multi-talented QB Brad Smith will
likely rebound from a sub-par junior season, but the
Tigers lost the middle of their talented defense to
the NFL as tackles Atiyyah Ellison and CJ Mosley were
both drafted. That Tiger tackling tandem combined for
27 losses behind the line of scrimmage last year.
Those are difficult numbers to replace, and Mizzou
only has one of its top six tacklers returning from
one season ago.
(3) Pittsburgh OVER 7 1/2 (minus $1.05) - The
Panthers have a new coach, the man with the missing
moustache, Dave Wannstedt. However, they do welcome
back a lot of the same faces who helped lead them to a
BCS bowl game last year. Pittsburgh might not be a top
25 team (in terms of power ratings) when all is said
and done, but its schedule and Big East affiliation
should be enough to translate into at least eight wins
this season. Offensively, the Panthers return QB Tyler
Palko, in addition to their top five rushers and top
six receivers from last year. Besides Louisville, all
other games are certainly winnable.
(4) Louisville OVER 9 1/2 (minus $1.69) - Speaking of
the Cardinals, here's another team out of the Big East
that we believe will go over their assigned win total
during 2005. It would not appear especially astute to
play two teams out of the same conference who play one
another to go OVER their season wins total. However, we
did it last year with Oklahoma and Texas and cashed
both tickets. One of the main reasons is the lack of
quality teams in the reshaped Big East. Outside of
Louisville and Pittsburgh, the next highest ranked
team in our power ratings is Syracuse which checks in
below the mid-line at No. 66.
(5) UNLV UNDER 4 1/2 (minus $1.25) - The Rebels lost
their top running back, Dominique Dorsey, and wide
receiver Earvin Johnson, from a pedestrian offense
which found the end zone last year about as frequently
as Napoleon Dynamite finds a date. On top of that,
UNLV's top three defensive players in linebackers Ryan
Claridge and Adam Seward and strong safety Jamaal
Brimmer are gone from a stop unit which, at best,
could be described as "porous." With a new coach, Mike
Sanford, comes new systems, philosophies and
terminology and we just cannot see the Rebels
exceeding four victories in '05 despite a
non-conference slate which would cause even a 98-pound
weakling to puff his chest out a bit.
Paul Stone is a handicapper at Jim Kruger’s Vegas Sports Authority. For free picks, more articles, and premium picks, visit or phone Jim at 702-630-8400
................
................
In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.
To fulfill the demand for quickly locating and searching documents.
It is intelligent file search solution for home and business.