Health Care Workforce Trends in Oregon
[Pages:16]Health Care Workforce Trends in Oregon
Oregon Health Care Workforce Committee September 2022
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1
Rapid Reversal of Pandemic Recession Job Losses
Indexed Total Nonfarm Employment in Oregon
105
Pandemic Recession (February 2020 = 100)
Great Recession (December 2007 = 100)
100
95
Two years after Oregon hit its recessionary bottom, Oregon had regained nine out of 10 jobs lost in spring 2020.
90
85
80 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 Months Since Onset of Recession
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Current Employment Statistics
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By comparison, it took Oregon more than six years to recover the jobs lost in the Great Recession.
2
Employment Trends Varied Within Health Care
Private Health Care Employment Trends by Subsector Not Seasonally Adjusted
Ambulatory Care
Hospitals
Nursing and Residential Care
105
Indexed Employment, February 2020 = 100
100
95
90
85
80
75
70 Feb-20
Jul-20
Dec-20
May-21
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Current Employment Statistics
Oct-21
Mar-22
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3
Rapid Recovery Brings Unemployment Near Record Lows Again
Unemployed Share of Labor Force
Oregon's Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted
NBER Recessions in Gray
15.0%
13.5%
12.0%
10.5%
Oregon's unemployment rate hit a record high of 13.3% in April 2020. Oregon's unemployment rate is now near a record low again.
9.0%
There have only been three
7.5%
periods in the past 46 years when
6.0%
Oregon's unemployment rate was
4.5%
at or below 4.5%. They included a
3.0%
few months in the mid-1990s, the
1.5%
two years immediately preceding
0.0% Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22
the pandemic recession, and now.
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Local Area Unemployment Statistics
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4
Many Unemployment Claimants Returned to Their Employer
Re-employment Patterns of Pandemic Recession Unemployment Claimants in Oregon by Winter 2022
Recalled by same employer Changed employer but in same sector Changed employer in different sector Not in Payroll Records
?
?
Total
Claimants 418,312
36%
12%
23%
29%
?
?
0%
50%
100%
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Unemployment Insurance Wage Records
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36% returned to and still worked for the same employer by winter 2022.
12% worked for a different employer in the same sector of the economy.
One out of four (23%) changed broad sectors of employment by winter 2022.
Three out of 10 regular unemployment claimants were no longer found in Oregon's payroll records.
5
Re-Employment Patterns Varied Within Health Care
Re-employment Patterns of Health Care Workers with Pandemic Unemployment Claims in Oregon by Winter 2022
Recalled by same employer Different employer but same sector Employed in different sector Not in Payroll Records
Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 12% 13%
40%
35%
Hospitals
49%
5%
24%
22%
Ambulatory Health Care Services
43%
17%
16%
24%
0%
50%
100%
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Unemployment Insurance Records
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6
Record-High Job Openings Amid Low Unemployment
120,000
Job Openings with Private Employers in Oregon, 2013-2022
100,000
80,000
Employers are looking to fill about twice as many job openings now as the last time unemployment was this low.
60,000
That contributes to record difficulty
filling vacancies. Seven out of 10
40,000
job openings were reported as
hard to fill over the past year.
20,000
0 Winter 2013
Fall Summer Spring Winter 2013 2014 2015 2016
Fall Summer Spring Winter 2016 2017 2018 2019
Fall Summer Spring Winter 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Quarterly Job Vacancy Survey
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7
Difficulty Filling Health Care Vacancies
Major Indicators from Oregon Health Care Job Vacancies
By Vacancy Type, Spring 2022
All Health
Not
Care Difficult-to-Difficult-to-
Vacancies
Fill
Fill
Vacancies
9,846 2,089 7,757
Average Hourly Wage
$24.62 $25.88 $24.48
Full-time Positions
76%
92%
72%
Permanent Positions
99%
94% 100%
Requiring Education
Beyond High School
60%
92%
53%
Requiring Previous
Experience
38%
34%
39%
Difficult to Fill
79%
0% 100%
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Job Vacancy Survey
? Health care occupations in the health care and social assistance industry represented nearly 10% of job vacancies in Oregon
? Hard-to-fill vacancies are far more likely to require previous experience and less likely to be full-time positions.
? Personal care aides, nursing assistants, and registered nurses accounted for majority (63%) of difficult-to-fill vacancies.
? Many employers simply mentioned "shortage" as the reason positions were difficult to fill.
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