Health Care Workforce Trends in Oregon

[Pages:16]Health Care Workforce Trends in Oregon

Oregon Health Care Workforce Committee September 2022

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Rapid Reversal of Pandemic Recession Job Losses

Indexed Total Nonfarm Employment in Oregon

105

Pandemic Recession (February 2020 = 100)

Great Recession (December 2007 = 100)

100

95

Two years after Oregon hit its recessionary bottom, Oregon had regained nine out of 10 jobs lost in spring 2020.

90

85

80 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 Months Since Onset of Recession

Source: Oregon Employment Department, Current Employment Statistics

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By comparison, it took Oregon more than six years to recover the jobs lost in the Great Recession.

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Employment Trends Varied Within Health Care

Private Health Care Employment Trends by Subsector Not Seasonally Adjusted

Ambulatory Care

Hospitals

Nursing and Residential Care

105

Indexed Employment, February 2020 = 100

100

95

90

85

80

75

70 Feb-20

Jul-20

Dec-20

May-21

Source: Oregon Employment Department, Current Employment Statistics

Oct-21

Mar-22

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Rapid Recovery Brings Unemployment Near Record Lows Again

Unemployed Share of Labor Force

Oregon's Unemployment Rate, Seasonally Adjusted

NBER Recessions in Gray

15.0%

13.5%

12.0%

10.5%

Oregon's unemployment rate hit a record high of 13.3% in April 2020. Oregon's unemployment rate is now near a record low again.

9.0%

There have only been three

7.5%

periods in the past 46 years when

6.0%

Oregon's unemployment rate was

4.5%

at or below 4.5%. They included a

3.0%

few months in the mid-1990s, the

1.5%

two years immediately preceding

0.0% Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-22

the pandemic recession, and now.

Source: Oregon Employment Department, Local Area Unemployment Statistics

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Many Unemployment Claimants Returned to Their Employer

Re-employment Patterns of Pandemic Recession Unemployment Claimants in Oregon by Winter 2022

Recalled by same employer Changed employer but in same sector Changed employer in different sector Not in Payroll Records

?

?

Total

Claimants 418,312

36%

12%

23%

29%

?

?

0%

50%

100%

Source: Oregon Employment Department, Unemployment Insurance Wage Records

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36% returned to and still worked for the same employer by winter 2022.

12% worked for a different employer in the same sector of the economy.

One out of four (23%) changed broad sectors of employment by winter 2022.

Three out of 10 regular unemployment claimants were no longer found in Oregon's payroll records.

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Re-Employment Patterns Varied Within Health Care

Re-employment Patterns of Health Care Workers with Pandemic Unemployment Claims in Oregon by Winter 2022

Recalled by same employer Different employer but same sector Employed in different sector Not in Payroll Records

Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 12% 13%

40%

35%

Hospitals

49%

5%

24%

22%

Ambulatory Health Care Services

43%

17%

16%

24%

0%

50%

100%

Source: Oregon Employment Department, Unemployment Insurance Records

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Record-High Job Openings Amid Low Unemployment

120,000

Job Openings with Private Employers in Oregon, 2013-2022

100,000

80,000

Employers are looking to fill about twice as many job openings now as the last time unemployment was this low.

60,000

That contributes to record difficulty

filling vacancies. Seven out of 10

40,000

job openings were reported as

hard to fill over the past year.

20,000

0 Winter 2013

Fall Summer Spring Winter 2013 2014 2015 2016

Fall Summer Spring Winter 2016 2017 2018 2019

Fall Summer Spring Winter 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: Oregon Employment Department, Quarterly Job Vacancy Survey

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Difficulty Filling Health Care Vacancies

Major Indicators from Oregon Health Care Job Vacancies

By Vacancy Type, Spring 2022

All Health

Not

Care Difficult-to-Difficult-to-

Vacancies

Fill

Fill

Vacancies

9,846 2,089 7,757

Average Hourly Wage

$24.62 $25.88 $24.48

Full-time Positions

76%

92%

72%

Permanent Positions

99%

94% 100%

Requiring Education

Beyond High School

60%

92%

53%

Requiring Previous

Experience

38%

34%

39%

Difficult to Fill

79%

0% 100%

Source: Oregon Employment Department, Oregon Job Vacancy Survey

? Health care occupations in the health care and social assistance industry represented nearly 10% of job vacancies in Oregon

? Hard-to-fill vacancies are far more likely to require previous experience and less likely to be full-time positions.

? Personal care aides, nursing assistants, and registered nurses accounted for majority (63%) of difficult-to-fill vacancies.

? Many employers simply mentioned "shortage" as the reason positions were difficult to fill.

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