ESMP 2020 - Brookdale CC



Demographics

Overview

This chapter will present data from within and outside the college that seems useful in predicting ways that Educational Services should plan for the next decade.  The writers are well aware that demographic data is always a useful but not absolute way of predicting the future.  Economic trends can change rapidly, as we all have learned recently, and wild cards like the Fort Monmouth closing make all forecasting tentative. Technological fads change so quickly, it is never safe to invest too quickly in new devices. Nevertheless, many sets of data are clearly useful to foresee trends that will affect higher education.  For example, the rising number of Latino households will undoubtedly change the composition of our student body and the growth in the Western part of Monmouth County will affect the Western Monmouth Branch Campus.  As this chapter envisions possible complex futures for the College, we will always have simple questions in mind:  "What can Brookdale do for this cohort?  What will they need from us?"

 This chapter is divided into three sections which attempt to cast a wide net of demographic information and predictions.  Section One will focus on Monmouth County and its individual communities. It will consider data from the state, the nation, and the world, but at the center will be the county we serve.  It will try to dig deeply into information for what is hidden in the details and it will try to capture information that isn't as obvious as household income or Department of Labor job trends and it will make tentative recommendations on how Brookdale might adapt to specific trends. Section Two will focus on the college itself, looking at demographic trends within our own research. Section Three will consider additional areas, like technology, textbook trends, financial aid, etc. that may affect future planning. Sometimes alternate recommendations may be necessary; sometimes the data will be there just to give Educational Services food for thought.

Demographics are an essential component of achieving the college Mission. We need to understand our changing population to “provide a comprehensive array of quality, affordable, educational choices. We need to know who will most need our services in “post-associate learning, career training, lifelong learning and community development.” Some of the additional areas covered in Section Three should reveal the best ways to deliver our services.

Section I

This section will concentrate on the U.S. Census Bureau’s report on Monmouth County, Population and Housing Narrative Profile: 2008. (As soon as the 2010 Census data is available {} that data should be folded into the ESMP with updated recommendations. Federal data should be available in December 2010. Local data will be somewhat later.) This section will search for additional data on issues like the closing of Fort Monmouth to ensure that we have the best data available to make recommendations and to provide information for the three other chapters of the ESMP. This section will help Brookdale satisfy its mission of being a “future-oriented institution” that gives “quality, affordable educational choices” to Monmouth County residents.

Population

|Population |Implications for Brookdale |Recommendations |

|Overall growth in Monmouth County has slowed from the last|The evolution of the Western Monmouth | Move aggressively to add courses, |

|decade of the century 11.2% to 6.1% from 2000 to 2008, a |Branch Campus to serve residents in the|faculty, staff, and support services to |

|growth from 605,265 to 642,448 in 2008. That growth is |western region of the county. |Western Monmouth. |

|chiefly in the Western[1] part of the county. | | |

|Source: Monmouth County Planning Board (2009). | | |

|Monmouth’s Western region is home to an estimated | | |

|one-quarter of County residents (25.9%). The region’s | | |

|residents are very similar to Monmouth county in terms sex| | |

|and age. | | |

|Two differences, albeit small: | | |

|8% of residents in the Western identified themselves as | | |

|Asian compared to 5% in the County; | | |

|5% of residents in the Western region identified | | |

|themselves as “Hispanic” compared to 9% in Monmouth | | |

|County. | | |

|Source: American Community Survey 3-year estimates | | |

|(2006-08). | | |

|Monmouth County’s population will continue to increase, |Growth in students and revenue will be |Integrated targeted marketing |

|reaching approximately 703,784 residents in 2025 (2004 |primarily from market share gains and |communications program promoting |

|Cross Acceptance Report) versus a January 1, 2009 estimate|new target markets, not organic growth |Brookdale as their local learning |

|of 662,987. However, these population projections indicate|from traditional markets |resource/gateway to opportunity if they: |

|that growth over the next 16 years will continue to slow, | |a) Need new or better job skills |

|averaging approximately .37% per year. Source: Monmouth | |b) Want to begin or finish a degree |

|County Planning Board (August 2009). | |c) Are thinking about certification or |

| | |graduate work |

| | |d) Want to earn a high school diploma or |

| | |learn basic skills |

| | |d) Need English as a Second language |

|Age - | | |

|Based on NJ School Report Card data, Monmouth County will |Approximately one-third of graduating |While the number of traditional age |

|likely experience a spike in enrollment with the Class of |seniors enroll at some point at |students is projected to slow, it is |

|2012 with a total of 8,143 students. By 2019, the number |Brookdale Community College. Thus, |still likely to be a substantial |

|of students in the Class of 2019 is estimated to be 7,501.|this cohort will make up a large |component of Brookdale’s enrollment. |

|This is 1% higher than enrollment for the Class of 2009 - |proportion of Brookdale's traditional | |

|very slight increase over 10 years. Source: NJ Department|aged cohort in 2013, mid-ESMP 2020 | |

|of Education |cycle. | |

|Monmouth county has also gotten older, the median age |Aging of baby boomers will result in |Expansion and revision of career training|

|rising from 38.1 in 2000 to 40.3 in 2008. Source: |higher demand for workers in healthcare|programs in various fields to meet |

|American Community Survey (2008) |and specialized services, as well as |changing needs of boomers. |

| |retraining for encore careers. | |

|American Community Survey estimates for 2000 to 2005-2007 |Anticipated growth in retirement |Comprehensive programs for retraining and|

|indicated the following: |communities may translate into |encore careers based on job market |

|a) Approximately 24.1% growth in 45 to 65 year age cohort |increased demand for lifelong learning |opportunities. |

|which will soon begin to enter the “senior” demographic. | |Onsite lifelong learning programs at |

|b) Gradual leveling off of school-age population. | |retirement communities offering |

|c) Proportion of residents aged 65 and over has remained | |convenience and intellectual stimulation |

|relatively constant. | |to residents. |

|More baby boomers are becoming entrepreneurs. The decline|Opportunity to provide resources for |Implementation and expansion of an |

|of “lifetime” employment, experience and knowledge of age |entrepreneurs from training programs on|Entrepreneurship Center. |

|group, longer lifespan and effect of current recession are|business start-up and expansion, | |

|contributing to the increase in entrepreneurial activity. |networking, mentoring, etc. | |

|In every single year from 1996 – 2007, Americans between | | |

|the ages of 55 and 64 had a higher rate of entrepreneurial| | |

|activity than those aged 20 to 34, averaging a rate of | | |

|entrepreneurial activity approximately one-third larger | | |

|than their youngest counterparts. Source: Ewing Marion | | |

|Kauffman Foundation 2009 | | |

|2008 MetLife Foundation/Civic Ventures survey found that |Opportunities for short term and longer|Fee-based, comprehensive career |

|between 5.3 and 8.4 million Americans have embarked on |term retraining in encore career |counseling program available to |

|encore careers. Among workers between ages 44 and 70, |fields, as well as career counseling. |non-trads/community members to help in |

|half are interested in going in that direction. | |planning an encore career. |

|Motivation is to “give something back”. Encore careers | |Expanded short and longer term career |

|include jobs in healthcare, education, green industries, | |training program in encore career fields.|

|government, social entrepreneurship and the nonprofit | | |

|sector. Source: Tahmincioglu (2010) | | |

|Fastest growth rate (38.2%) in persons over 65. |Opportunity to offer programs at |Expansion of on-site lifelong learning |

|Source: Monmouth County Selected Trends (Internal |Brookdale and on-site at retirement |programs and locations with emphasis on |

|Document) |communities. |multi-session programs. |

|Primary market for lifelong learning programs with time |Most loyal Continuing Education |Development of customer loyalty programs |

|for recreational and leisure activities. High level of |customer segment with higher |to generate additional registrations for |

|interest in programs and activities to keep mind active |courses/events per customer ratio. |both continuing education programs and |

|and foster social connections. | |Credit classes. |

|Race/Ethnicity - | | |

|A majority of county residents reported they were ‘one |Monmouth County’s population is |Continue supporting programs that |

|race’ (98%). Of these, 85% White, 8% Black or African |racially and ethnically diverse. |maintain an environment that is “open, |

|American, and 5% Asian. | |diverse, and inclusive, both |

|A total of 9% of all County residents self-identified as | |intellectually and organizationally” |

|Hispanic; 78% identified as White, Non-Hispanic. Source: | |(Brookdale Diversity committee). |

|American Community Survey (2008) | | |

|The ethnic/racial components of County residents from 2000|Growth in Hispanic population will |Ensure the College’s ESL offerings, both |

|to 2008 show a slight drop in both White and Black cohorts|result in increased need for English |credit and non-credit, reflect |

|while Hispanic or Latino has gone up nearly 50% to 56,507,|language courses offered at the |continuity, geographic populations, and |

|9% of the county population. Source: American Community |College. This may also create a need |use of appropriate campuses. |

|Survey (2008) |for cultural awareness training for |Hire more faculty and administrators with|

| |college employees as well as for the |Hispanic backgrounds. |

| |community members (e.g., local | |

| |employers). | |

|A total of 43% of those speaking a foreign language at |The direction of ESL and its structure |How can the college best serve the needs |

|home reported they “did not speak English ‘very well’” |within Educational Services. |of this cohort? |

|Source: American Community Survey (2008) | | |

|The percentage of Limited English Proficient (LEP) high |Monmouth County high school students |Review, establish as needed and maintain |

|school students ranged from 0.2 (Middletown South) to 8.4 |are a substantial component of |existing connections between Monmouth |

|(Asbury Park High School). |Brookdale’s enrollment. |County secondary school LEP student |

|Asbury Park, Red Bank, and Long Branch seemed to be areas | |population and the college. |

|with a concentration of students likely to be English | | |

|language learners. Source: NJ Department of Education | | |

|Among individuals at least five years old, 17% spoke a |a) Needs of the 41% Spanish speaking |Further probe into this cohort to |

|language other than English at home. 41% spoke Spanish, |community. |identify needs. Based on findings, |

|59% some other language. Source: American Community Survey|b) Potential growth of Hispanic or |encourage and facilitate the inclusion |

|(2008) |other language communities. |and participation of this cohort into the|

| |c) Location, number, and languages of |College by offering programs of cultural |

| |the 59% other language category. |awareness and sensitivity to all of the |

| | |College campuses. |

Education

A majority of the College students are younger than 22 years of age (i.e., traditional age college student). Approximately one-third of Monmouth County high school graduates attend Brookdale. As such, it is important to monitor the college preparedness, or basic skills, of this cohort. High School Proficiency Assessment (HSPA) data are presented to understand the educational level of the county’s high school cohort. Because the high schools use High School Proficiency Assessment (HSPA) to track student skill attainment while Brookdale uses Accuplacer to place students, Brookdale needs to look at both to see how we can help improve the “preparation gap.” This issue is also addressed in the Basic Skills section of this chapter.

Monmouth County residents over age 24 years (i.e., non-traditional age students) report a variety of educational levels as reported in the American Community Survey (2008). More than half of county residents in this cohort have not earned a college degree. Many residents can benefit from the various educational opportunities at Brookdale.

|Education |Implications for Brookdale |Recommendations |

|The average of Monmouth County 11th grade students who |This data suggest students from these |Review the needs of incoming high school |

|received a "partially proficient" (i.e., did not pass) |regions may need additional |graduates. |

|score on the Language Arts Literacy section of the HSPA |instructional support to meet the state|Maintain existing and establish as needed|

|was 11.5% (2002-08). A notably higher average percentage |standards in Language. It is possible |program and services targeted to incoming|

|of students in the Coastal (17.7%) and Bayshore (16.7%) |BCC Higher Education Center's will see |high school students by region. |

|regions scored "partially proficient" than the county |a higher proportion of students needing| |

|average. |support services for English. | |

|Source: NJ Department of Education | | |

|The Grade Eight Proficiency Assessment (GEPA) data were | | |

|more striking than the HSPA. Overall, 18.1% scored a | | |

|“partially proficient” (i.e., did not pass) on the | | |

|Language Arts Literacy portion (2002-07). The Coastal | | |

|(28.2%) and Bayshore (24.5%) were notably higher than that| | |

|suggesting the preparation is rooter in earlier schooling | | |

|than high school. | | |

|Source: NJ Department of Education | | |

|A majority of county residents (92%) of individuals at |The data suggest markets likely to |a) Use targeted demographic information |

|least 25 years old graduated high school; 8% have not. |benefit from Brookdale’s programs and |to identify and provide services as |

| |services. |needed. |

|Approximately one-fifth of Monmouth County residents age | |b) Work with public schools to identify |

|25 years and over have some college but no degree (17.5%).|Namely, |and reach out to drop outs. |

| |a) Residents who have not completed |c) Use continuum of BCC services to |

| |high school and the high school |attract higher education graduates back |

|Approximately one-quarter of Monmouth County residents |graduates without a college degree. |for training. |

|over age 24 years reported their highest level of |b) lifelong learning opportunities for |d) Promote flexibility offered by |

|education was a high school degree (including equivalency;|Monmouth County residents who have a |Brookdale including convenient locations |

|27.7%). |college degree. |of branch campus and HECs, and online |

| | |courses, open access, remedial/refresher |

|Over one-third (39%) had a B.A. or higher. |Continue to collect targeted |courses as needed, broad range of |

| |demographic information on educational |subjects, articulation agreements and |

|Source: American Community Survey (2008) |attainment by county region or |opportunity to obtain both a bachelor’s |

| |municipality. |and graduate degree at Brookdale through |

| | |Communiversity. |

Employment

Brookdale must always be mindful of the workplace, especially in an era where unemployment is rampant and job categories change quickly. Studies in the workforce indicate that educational institutions must not only create programs which lead to jobs but foster skills that will be useful as the job market evolves. Of the top Real Time Jobs in Demand (July 2009) all identified current workers as holding a B.A. or some college or, in some cases, post-secondary training.

|Employment |Implications for Brookdale |Recommendations |

|In Monmouth County, 21% of residents are employed in the|Identify continuing |Continue to emphasize programs and options|

|“education, health care, or social assistance” industry.|education/professional development |in these areas. |

|Source: American Community Survey (2008) |learning opportunities. | |

|NJ’s “green jobs” are concentrated in three areas: |How is the college positioned to respond|Continue monitoring industry and |

|Professional technical services, Business/finance, |to the expected increase in this area? |occupational demand for “green” training. |

|Community Service. An estimated 300-400 green job | | |

|openings are posted every month. | | |

|A majority (73%) of Monmouth County workers drove to |Provides an idea of the mobility of |Use combination of shuttles and hybrid/on |

|work, 11% carpooled, 8% use public transportation, 4 % |Monmouth County residents. |line classes for residents without “on |

|other, and 4% working from home. Source: American | |demand” access to a vehicle. |

|Community Survey (2008) | | |

|In Monmouth County, 6% of people were in poverty, 16% of|Component of the County population in |Identify and find ways to serve citizens |

|families with a female householder and no husband |need of education and employment. |under the poverty line such as a “benefits|

|present. Source: American Community Survey (2008) | |bank” concept. |

Fort Monmouth

Fort Monmouth Economic Revitalization Planning Authority (FMERPA) created to draft a plan for transition of land from government owned (Army) to non-government (private) ownership. The Army has submitted the plan to Housing and Urban Development (HUD).  As of 1.10.10, HUD has not reported receipt of the plan.  FMERPA will be out of business 60 days from HUD reporting receipt of the plan. A new commission will be created after FMERPA ceases to exist.  This commission is appointed by the Governor of New Jersey and called FMERPA II. Brookdale is slated to receive Armstrong Hall via Community Benefit.  The college needs a plan to utilize this facility in the most effective way.

In July 2011, the military will leave Fort Monmouth. The Department of Veterans Affairs has employed a number of Fort Monmouth employees. Brookdale has been involved with the closing - specifically OBCD (Janet Speko - Bio Bootcamps, Linda Milstein); the Office of Government of Development, Governmental & Community Relations (Webster Trammell), and the Grants office. Brookdale needs to decide which connections should be maintained and how they relate to planning.

The implications of the closure of Fort Monmouth are the loss of major employers, especially in high technology. Buildings and land in Eatontown/Ocean area are potentially available for Brookdale

Long-term solutions as government and local industry move toward decisions. Overall, it is recommended Brookdale monitor Fort Monmouth commissions and be a potential partner as well as explore ways to use existing classroom building Armstrong Hall for credit or OBCD.

|Fort Monmouth |Implications for Brookdale |Recommendations |

|Fort Monmouth Economic Revitalization Planning Authority |Opportunity to develop short term training |Short term career training |

|adopted the final draft reuse plan in September 2008. |programs to retrain highly skilled workforce |programs and longer term |

|According to the plan, the fort will eventually host multiple |who remain in Monmouth County area for |(degree) programs in |

|employment centers focused on four specific industries: |comparable jobs in other, locally based |Alternative and Renewable |

|1) Alternative and Renewable Energy |industries |Energy, Biotechnology, |

|2) Biotechnology |Development of longer term degree programs in |Nanotechnology, and |

|3) Nanotechnology |specific industries to be housed at Fort |Information and |

|4) Information and Communications |Monmouth site |Communications |

|Source: Monmouth County Planning Board 2009 Profile | | |

Other

There are several other issues that Brookdale might consider in its long term education planning.

|Other |Implications for Brookdale |Recommendations |

|Limited access for Monmouth County residents |How does Brookdale meet educational needs of |Assess, develop, and promote programs and |

|to public four-year baccalaureate education. |it’s’ residents? |services to meet the educational needs of the |

| | |community. |

|Success gap |What is Brookdale’s success gap? |Identify and penetrate areas of the county where|

| | |the success gap is worst and give greater |

| | |support for retention. |

|A total of 6% of the county population (18-64 |How does the College meet the educational |Assess the college’s outreach measures to |

|years) reported a disability (24,717). |needs of this cohort? |residents with a disability. |

|Source: American Community Survey (2008) | |Ensure Brookdale programs and services are |

| | |meeting educational needs of residents who have |

| | |a disability. |

|The American Community Survey estimates report|Is Brookdale prepared to provide service to |Identify, recruit, and support returning |

|range of veterans in Monmouth County’s |veterans, especially with the new G.I. Bill? |veterans. |

|population is 8.1% to 10.9%. | | |

|Source: American Community Survey (2008) | | |

Section II

This section will concentrate on data collected by the Brookdale’s Office of Planning, Assessment & Research as well as data available from other college sources (e.g., Human Resources). It will look at our students, faculty, administration and staff to see who we are and what groups are represented. It will examine our resources to find trends that will help the college plan for the future. It will especially look at important cohorts of students, such as under-prepared students, students who succeed or do not succeed, students in particular ethnic or religious cohorts, non-traditional students and students from particular geographic areas. It will help Brookdale identify its current clientele and extrapolate on the needs of our future students and community clients so that we can fulfill our mission to “provide a comprehensive array” of educational services that fit the needs of the county. Fall enrollment data are used.

|Brookdale student enrollment |Implications for Brookdale |Recommendations |

|Fall 2009 (with Fall 10) had a 16,123 unduplicated head count. |Growth in headcount and SCH per student |Branch Campus and Higher |

|This was a 6.8% growth in students and 8.2% in SCH, so students|alerts college to increase offerings and |Education Center’s will need to|

|are taking more credits per student. Source: Planning, |options. |accept increasing enrollments. |

|Assessment & Research (November 2009) | | |

|Fall 10 (in Fall 2009) increased from 27.2 FTE in Fall 2008 to |Students are enrolling in alternative |Continue to offer – and expand |

|182.2 FTE; 51.8% of students enrolled in Fall 10 were |options such as the Fall 10 terms. |as needed – alternatives to |

|simultaneously enrolled in Fall 15. Source: Planning, | |traditional 15-week semesters. |

|Assessment & Research (November 2009) | | |

|Fall 2009 had a 9.8 % rise in Full Time Degree Seeking |Full-time, degree seeking students are a |Maintain transfer agreements |

|Students. 66.1% of all Degree Seeking students are transfer |substantive component of Brookdale |and create new ones as needed |

|oriented. Source: Planning, Assessment & Research (November |enrollment. |by Brookdale students. |

|2009) | | |

|66.1% of BCC students are 21 or younger, the fastest growing |Younger student body raises maturity |Faculty and Staff will need |

|student population in numbers. Source: Planning, Assessment & |concerns. |more training in student and |

|Research (November 2009) |Younger student body indicates greater |classroom management, esp. |

| |familiarity with some types of technology, |adjuncts. Social networks and |

| |specifically social networks and gaming. |phones as browsers will need to|

| |Inevitable increase in number and percentage|be considered as possible aids |

| |of adjunct faculty. |to learning. |

|Minorities comprise 24.5% of our students. Enrollment of all |Increasingly diverse student populations. |Continue supporting and |

|minorities went up except Hispanic, which had an 11 student | |developing programs that foster|

|drop. Note – the drop is likely due to a change in data | |an environment that is “open, |

|collection. Source: Planning, Assessment & Research (November| |diverse, and inclusive, both |

|2009) | |intellectually and |

| | |organizationally” (Brookdale |

| | |Diversity committee). |

|Online enrollment increased 31.6% from Fall 08. More than |Increasing number and percentage of online |Online courses need to be |

|1,440 students took at least one on line course. 70 % of on |enrollment. |studied for completion rates, |

|line registrants are female compared to 54.1 % of traditional | |rigor, and entry level skills |

|classes and the average age of an online student is 27 compared| |of registrants. |

|to 24 for traditional. (See completion rate for online below).| | |

|Source: Planning, Assessment & Research (November 2009) | | |

|Five of six divisions had increases in majors. Science and |Science and Health will likely continue to |Expansion and revision of |

|Health had the largest increase of 17.5% while English and |have increases in majors given the current |academic programs to meet both |

|Reading had the only drop, 5.4%, chiefly because of 119 less |job market. |student and labor market |

|majors in Liberal Education, which may be a positive sign that | |demands. |

|students are choosing more specific academic paths. Source: | | |

|Planning, Assessment & Research (November 2009) | | |

|Females made up 54.1% of the student body. However, males made|Increasingly diverse student enrollment in |Are there gender differences in|

|up 52.2 % of the full-time enrolled student body while females |terms of gender. |student enrollment, retention, |

|made up 63% of the part time student body. Data for the past 10| |and completion? If so, how |

|years shows a slight rise in the percentage of males. Source: | |should they be addressed? |

|Planning, Assessment & Research (November 2009) | | |

|Whites made up 72.2% of enrollment, Blacks 11%, Hispanic 9.1%, |Increasingly diverse student enrollment in |Are there differences in |

|and Asian 4.3%. Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics show a small |terms of race/ethnicity. |student enrollment, retention, |

|rise in percentage from Fall 2007. Asians showed a minor | |and completion? If so, how can|

|decline as well as “alien” and “other.” Source: Planning, | |the College best address them? |

|Assessment & Research (November 2009) | | |

5-year trends – Brookdale students from 2005 to 2009

|Brookdale students: 2005-2009 |Implications for Brookdale |Recommendations |

|The number of students who have matriculated increased 20.5% from |Increase in students who have |The new counseling/advising |

|2005 to 2009. Source: Planning, Assessment & Research (November |matriculated. |system needs to help students |

|2009) | |develop graduation/transfer and|

| | |certificate plans. |

|Enrollment has increased 28.2% among students who are “21 or less”|Students who are “21 or less” make up |Given the expected decline in |

|from 2005 to 2009. It increased 20.5% among students who are “22 |over half of total enrollment. |the population of high school |

|to 30” years of age during the same time frame. Source: Planning,| |graduates, the college needs to|

|Assessment & Research (November 2009) | |retain and graduate an |

| | |increasing number of these |

| | |students. |

|Enrollment of students who are Hispanic increased 28.2% from 2005 |Increasingly diverse student enrollment |More data needed to determine |

|to 2009. Source: Planning, Assessment & Research (November 2009) |in terms of ethnicity. |1st, 2nd, and 3rd generation |

| | |Hispanic student needs. |

Completion, graduation, and retention (CGR) at Brookdale

Higher educational institutions are judged on how their students succeed in acquiring certificates and degrees. For that reason, Brookdale has always focused closely on Completion and Retention, and our Planning and Research Office has reports and statistics to study from the past two decades and longer. On the positive side, Brookdale has the largest number of graduates in the state, year after year. In 2007, the last year cited in the NJCC Fact Book, Brookdale had 308 more graduates than our closest competitor. On the negative side, using the federal standards of graduating in three years, Brookdale, as in the total community college sector graduates fewer than half of its entering class of Freshman. In the area of the “achievement gap,” Brookdale needs to find a way to move a higher percentage of its underprepared students along the educational pipeline. Here is some data as well as issues to consider on completion and graduation

|CGR |Implications for Brookdale |Recommendations |

|Fall 2007 to Spring 2009 (4 semesters) the return rate for first |Increasing the return rate is critical in|Major initiatives on the |

|time, full degree seeking students is 61.3 %. |the context of reduced high school |success gap are needed. |

| |graduating classes. | |

|Online vs. All College completion: in Spring 2009 - The college |Online completion rates need to increase |The virtual college initiative |

|completion rate was 74% vs. 66% for online sections. These |as the percentage and number of classes |needs to suggest steps to |

|percentages are relatively consistent over the past five years. |are offered in a virtual environment. |improve completion rates for on|

|Source: Planning, Assessment & Research (2009) | |line. |

| | |Hybrid courses need to be |

| | |studied as the possible best |

| | |case completion scenario. |

|The 2005 Entering Cohort of Freshman had a combined graduation and|Increasing graduation/transfer rates need|Major initiatives on preparing |

|transfer rate after three years (six semesters) of 40.4%, 3.2% |to be cultivated for long-term enrollment|entering Freshman need to be |

|higher than the best of the past nine years, which is a positive |growth. |developed. |

|sign. With a longer base, the data might show a more realistic | | |

|snapshot of a community college cohort, at least 40% of who need | | |

|remediation. Source: Planning, Assessment & Research (2009). | | |

Basic skills

Brookdale rate of placement evaluation for the 2008 entering cohort has risen to 83.4%, 94% for new full-time students. More than three out of every four new students (76.9%) require some developmental coursework. A total of 46% required Reading, 32% required Writing, and 70.2% required Math. Almost one-third (32%) needed remediation in all three content areas. Earlier intervention with Basic Skills students needed, especially in Math.

Brookdale’s Office of Planning, Assessment & Research (August 2009) Basic Skills Profile reports students requiring three areas of developmental are the least likely to return for additional semesters compared to students taking less than 3 areas. Similar data shows that these students graduate at lower rates. Greater success with Basic Skills students needing three disciplines should increase overall college retention rate.

The high percentage of entering students needing remediation needs to be a target focus for all Educational Services employees. Basic Skills needs to be the responsibility of all faculty and learning assistants, not just developmental courses and labs. All college programs can work to improve Basic Skills education. In 2009, the College began working with the State Initiative on Basic Skills and BCC Basic Skills Committee to improve the gap and increase retention. Greater in-depth data on Basic Skills students including gateway courses, geographical areas is needed.

|Basic skills |Implications for Brookdale |Recommendations |

|Ethnicity: In Fall 2008, 23.4% of the total student body was minority |Racial/ethnic differences in Basic |Initiatives to correct the |

|compared to 23.9% who needed some developmental coursework. However, |Skills. |success gap need to take |

|33.7% of the students who needed all three developmental areas were | |the 33.5% figure into |

|minorities. | |consideration. |

|Gender: Males comprised 44% of the student body in 2008 but accounted for|Gender differences in Basic Skills. |None |

|50.9% of those requiring remediation in all three content areas. | | |

|Age: 91.6% of new students who require at least one Basic Skills course |Younger cohort of students may |Proactive measures to help |

|were under 22 years of age. |increase developmental needs. |underprepared students need|

| | |to be a college-wide |

| | |priority. |

|Almost 60% of developmental students successfully complete remedial |Improve completion rates in Basic |None |

|courses, more than 10% lower than the College-wide completion rates. |Skills. | |

|Traditionally, developmental course completion rates for English and | |The Basic Skills |

|Reading are higher than those for Math. However, in the last five years,| |Coordinators need to |

|Math completion rates have been better than English and Reading. | |analyze why Math has |

| | |improved and see if it can |

| | |be a model. |

|Basic Skills Assessment |High School Testing is not in synch |This discrepancy needs to |

| |with Accuplacer scores. |be studied on a state-wide |

| | |basis. |

|Generational differences |At this time, Brookdale has no |Brookdale should consider |

| |mechanism to identify students who are|adding a question on this |

| |the first in their family to attend |status to our application |

| |college. EOF has a survey that does |process. |

| |identify this trait for its students. | |

Brookdale faculty

|Brookdale faculty |Implications for Brookdale |Recommendations |

|Age - | | |

|Brookdale faculty are remarkably mature: 49.3% (124|This data has implications for retirement, |A generous buy-out plan could easily make |

|individuals) are over 55 and 71.6% are over 45 |for a cultural divide as our students grow |major changes in the faculty. The college |

|(180). |younger, and a question of familiarity with|needs succession planning in any case so |

| |the technology most commonly used by |that institutional memory and curriculum |

| |students such as social networks and mobile|continuity can be maintained. Educational |

| |browsers. |services should engage in vigorous |

| | |recruitment of recent college graduates. A |

| | |balance of younger faculty could help the |

| | |college culture with current trends. |

|Race/Ethnicity - | | |

|A majority of Brookdale faculty are “white” (88%). |Compared to Monmouth County percentages, |Educational services needs to continue a |

|The remaining 12% are Black (6%), Asian/Pacific |Brookdale is underrepresented in both Black|vigorous recruitment process for all faculty|

|Islander (4%), and Hispanic (2%). |and Hispanic faculty, especially Hispanic |positions to attract African American and |

| |faculty at 2% (6) compared to a rising |Hispanic faculty. The recruitment process |

| |Hispanic population in the county (9%). |should be paired with a process that |

| | |educates faculty and staff on cultures and |

| | |diversity. |

|Gender - | | |

|Brookdale faculty are predominately female (57%). |A total of 10% of faculty are male and over|Education services should monitor the gender|

|Data are presented below by age (Total = 251). |the age of 64. The gender ration may |ratio. |

|Age |further lean towards females when this | |

|Females |cohort decides to retire. | |

|Males | | |

| | | |

|25 to 34 | | |

|6.8 | | |

|4.4 | | |

| | | |

|35 to 44 | | |

|9.2 | | |

|8.0 | | |

| | | |

|45 to 54 | | |

|13.9 | | |

|8.4 | | |

| | | |

|55 to 59 | | |

|13.9 | | |

|5.2 | | |

| | | |

|60 to 64 | | |

|10.4 | | |

|5.6 | | |

| | | |

|65 to 74 | | |

|2.8 | | |

|10.4 | | |

| | | |

|75 to 84 | | |

|0.0 | | |

|1.2 | | |

| | | |

Section III

This section will examine alternate data that might help the College satisfy its mission to provide many types and levels of credit, continuing education, and certificate educational programs. It will look at areas like “Non-Trads,” i.e. underserved populations that might benefit by degrees or training. It will examine the aging, but vigorous “boomer” population and will try to speculate on future trends in funding, technology, health care, or student financial aid. By its nature, this section is the most speculative section and the chapter task force will take special care to make sure that we put sensible limits on the recommendations. Areas like funding and technology are especially hard to predict, but it is certainly worthwhile to be informed on what is possible to guess from today’s environment.

Technology

This area is certainly the most controversial with members of the Demographics Chapter task force in disagreement about student and faculty levels of ability, the role of technology in education, even whether or not technology is re-programming children’s ways of learning. Surveys show that these issues are national issues, but Brookdale needs to make decisions on the best data available, always remembering that the environment of educational technology can change quickly and Educational Services needs to be ready to adapt.

Technology changes so quickly that the college must be flexible, wary, and ready to distinguish trends from fads.

Surveys show widespread disagreement on the implications of technology; these disagreements exist with the Demographic Chapter group and the larger faculty and administration at Brookdale.

Establish procedures which include all stakeholders and encourage buy-in with all technology decisions.

Technological issues:

• Helping students learn to filter the content of massive technological information to extract meaningful information

• Re-thinking ad re-imagining the role of educators and institutions in an age of technology

• Web 2.0 cloud based applications and storage will marginalize traditional desktop computers, laptops, and applications to smaller form factor devices

• The diminishing distinction between a book, a Kindle or other devices, and digital texts

• Widget for foreign languages on the website.

• Include information technology as part of all HUDV classes and developmental classes.

|Technology |Implications for Brookdale |Recommendations |

|Forecast that by 2013, the phone will be the most common web |There will most likely an increase in |How significant is this increase?|

|browsing device. |the number of Brookdale students using |In what ways can mobile phones be|

|36% of children 10-11 own a mobile phone. |mobile phones. |used for educational services |

| | |and/or programs? |

|65 % of households use gaming devices. The average gamer is 32 |There will likely be an increase in the|How significant is this increase |

|years old. |number of Brookdale students using |and if significant, how does it |

| |gaming devices. |relate to Brookdale programs and |

| | |services? |

|In a 2009 study of what they said was important for a college to |Wireless technology, computer labs, and|BCC has the first two but is weak|

|offer, college students rated Course management systems 53%, |course management systems are likely |on the third, which indicates our|

|computer labs 66% and Wireless networks 76%. |important to Brookdale students. |plans to go fully wireless are |

| | |important. |

|Students rank faculty lack of technology knowledge as the biggest |It is possible this obstacle exists at |Experiment with alternate devices|

|obstacle to classroom technology integration. |Brookdale. |for textbooks such as digital |

| | |texts, Kindles, etc. |

|Students and faculty disagree on what constitutes the top |How do Brookdale faculty adapt |Ensure that students’ use of |

|technology tools for education: for example, 52% of students cite|pedagogy to student practices? |social networking does not become|

|social networking sites but only 14% of faculty; 31 % of students | |a barrier to serious use of |

|cite iPod/MP3 player but only 12% of the faculty. | |technology in scholarship. |

|32% of students “strongly agree” that their college is preparing |It is possible this attitude exists at |Do Brookdale students share these|

|them to use technology as a professional tool; only 22% of faculty|Brookdale. |attitudes? |

|“strongly agree” that their institution is preparing students to | |If so, what can the faculty do to|

|use technology as a professional tool; Liberal art students feel | |bridge this gap? |

|even less confident at 21%. | | |

|Carnegie Mellon hybrid and free on line courses; MIT 1900 free on | |Monitor free on line credit and |

|line courses. | |continuing education courses and |

| | |discuss their implications for |

| | |our students. |

|1/3 of American homes do not have Internet access. |How do national data compare to |Get data on county homes without |

| |Brookdale and the community it serves? |Internet access and find ways to |

| | |make sure there is not a “usage |

| | |gap” with lower socio-economic |

| | |cohorts of students. |

|English web surfers worldwide represent less than 28% of the |What is the demography of the Internet |Add widgets for foreign languages|

|Internet population |population of Brookdale and the |on website, especially Spanish |

| |community it serves? |and Portuguese. |

Textbooks

|Textbooks |Implications for Brookdale |Recommendations |

|College stores account for 70% of text book sales; 3% |a) communication between teaching faculty and |Establish better communications|

|of sales are digital textbooks. |college store to take advantage of new technologies |with the College Store to |

| |in textbooks and equipment |consider new technologies and |

| | |equipment. Make this |

| | |information available to the |

| | |campus. |

|$702 – average annual spending on course materials; $57|b) Cost and availability of textbooks and equipment |Investigate better ways to help|

|average cost of new textbook; $40 – average cost of |for financial aid students and students from lower |all students to get textbooks |

|used textbook. |socio-economic groupings. |(rental, etc.) |

|7,500 of the most popular textbook titles now available| | |

|through online subscription –cost approximately half of| | |

|printed texts. | | |

|Book rental programs at ½ NJ colleges. Internet book | | |

|swaps available at some schools. | | |

Funding

|Data |Implications for Brookdale |Recommendations |

|FY11 tuition and fees account for 52.3% of budget |Student tuition pays an increasing amount of the|Consider new, quasi-public status |

|28% of FY11 tuition from county; 11% from the State |college budget. |for Brookdale. |

| |Governmental support and taxpayers revolts | |

| |threaten public support for higher education. | |

Employment trends

Occupational employment in Monmouth County grew by 8.6% from 319,839 in 2002 to 347,452 in 2009. It is projected to grow 10.3% to 383,408 by 2019, which is the low end of the average range (9 – 17%; EMSI data). A total of 15 occupations with the largest employment growth will generate 2,850 net new jobs and a total projected employment increase of 18,600. By 2016, the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development estimates that Monmouth County will have 9,010 annual job openings. Monmouth County is part of the Edison MSA. Edison MSA data were reviewed and are included.

Source: Monmouth County Planning Board 2009 Profile

Please note: Given the current economic environment, we expect these projections to be revised.

|Employment |Implications for Brookdale |Recommendations |

|Employment opportunities through 2020 are projected to slow |Slow jobs growth results in a highly |Expansion of continuing education |

|notably. |competitive market with employees and job|programs and certifications to |

| |seekers needing additional training and |provide individuals with skills to |

| |education. |become and remain competitive. |

|Growth in permatemps. Recession has accelerated trend |Opportunity to provide career training |Short term career training in |

|including offshoring, automation, decline of labor unions’ |programs to meet job market demands |required skills such as computer |

|influence, new management techniques and regulatory changes | |training, customer service, |

|that had already been eroding workers’ economic standing. |Professionals working on short-term |bookkeeping, etc |

|Recession has prompted more companies to create just-in-time |assignments become “free agents” or | |

|labor forces to reduce fixed costs and gain greater |entrepreneurs. Opportunity to provide |Comprehensive training in |

|efficiency. |training in entrepreneurship |entrepreneurship and small business |

|Source: Coy, Conlin, & Herbst (2010) | |development |

| | | |

| | |Provide resources for entrepreneurs |

| | |for networking, information sharing, |

| | |support, etc. (The Entrepreneurship |

| | |Center) |

|Edison MSA (Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, and Somerset |Connectivity between Brookdale programs |a) Evaluation and enhancement of |

|counties): |and the labor market. |current programs to meet job market |

|By 2019, the ten largest occupations in the Edison area are | |demand. |

|projected to include: | |b) Learning/career tracks from short |

|Retail salespersons | |term to longer term programs in |

|Real estate sales agents | |specific fields (non-credit to credit|

|Real estate brokers | |programs) |

|Cashiers, except gaming | | |

|Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand | | |

|Registered nurses | | |

|Office clerks, general | | |

|Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive | | |

|Customer service representatives | | |

|Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks | | |

|Source: Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. (EMSI) | | |

|Edison MSA (Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, and Somerset |Opportunity to help meet demand for |Creation of new programs (e.g., |

|counties): |skilled workers in fastest growing |Healthcare technician) in response to|

|Occupational growth from 2009 to 2019: * Range of growth |occupations. |evolving industry demands and needs. |

|(from 1,757 to 8,553) | |Monitor local area industry and |

|Real estate sales agents | |occupational projections and develop |

|Real estate brokers | |new programs in emerging fields such |

|Property, real estate, and community association managers | |as green jobs and nanotechnology. |

|Personal financial advisors | | |

|Computer software engineers, applications | | |

|Retail salespersons | | |

|Securities, commodities, and financial services sales agents | | |

|Child care workers | | |

|Registered nurses | | |

|Customer service representatives | | |

|continued | | |

|Managers, all other | | |

|Landscaping and grounds keeping workers | | |

|Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants | | |

|Management analysts | | |

|Chief executives | | |

|Financial analysts | | |

|Computer systems analysts | | |

|Sales representatives, services, all other | | |

|Appraisers and assessors of real estate | | |

|Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast| | |

|food | | |

|Source: EMSI | | |

|Monmouth County: By 2019, the ten largest occupations in |Connectivity between Brookdale programs |a) Evaluation and enhancement of |

|Monmouth County are projected to make up 18.8% of all |and the labor market. |current programs to meet job market |

|occupational employment. These occupations are: | |demand. |

|Retail salespersons | |b) Learning/career tracks from short |

|Real estate sales agents | |term to longer term programs in |

|Real estate brokers | |specific fields (non-credit to credit|

|Cashiers, except gaming | |programs) |

|Registered nurses | | |

|Waiters and waitresses | | |

|Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast| | |

|food | | |

|Property, real estate, and community association managers | | |

|Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive | | |

|Personal financial advisors | | |

|Source: EMSI | | |

|Please note: Given the current economic environment, we | | |

|expect these projections to be revised. | | |

References and works cited

Anderson, J. (2010, February 19). Future of Internet IV. Retrieved from Pew Internet & American Life Project:

Coy, P., Conlin, M., & Herbst, M. (2010, January 10). The rise of the permanent temporary workforce. Retrieved from :

Dugan, M. (November 2009). Edison Labor Area Review of 2009 and Outlook for 2010. Trenton, NJ: Bureau of Labor Market Information.

Duggan, M., & Ferdetta, F. (February 2010). Central Region Community Fact Book: Monmouth County Edition. Trenton, NJ: Bureau of Labor Market Information.

Economic Modeling Specialists, Inc. (2009). Occupation report. Moscow, ID.

Marshall, J. (2010, March 2). Two Thirds of U.S. Users Have Broadband. Retrieved from ClickZ:

Monmouth County Planning Board. (December 2009). 2009 Demographic & Economic Statistics. Freehold, NJ: Monmouth County Planning Board.

Monmouth County Planning Board. (August 2009). 2009 Profile. Freehold, NJ.

NJ Department of Education. (n.d.). New Jersey School Report Card. Retrieved December 2009, from NJ Department of Education:

Pew Research Center. (2010, February 24). Millenials: Confident. Connected. Open to change. Retrieved from Social and Demographic Trends: Pew Research Center:

Planning, Assessment & Research. (August 2009). Basic Skills Annual Profiles. Lincroft, NJ: Brookdale Community College.

Planning, Assessment & Research. (2009). Distribution of Spring Grades 2006-2009. Lincroft, NJ: Brookdale Community College.

Planning, Assessment & Research. (November 2009). Fall 2009 Enrollment Report. Lincroft, NJ: Brookdale Community College.

Planning, Assessment & Research. (2009). Graduation and Transfer Rates. Lincroft, NJ: Brookdale Community College.

Rod Paige on Closing the Achievement Gap. (2010, February 24). Thomas B. Fordham Institute, New York, NY.

Stangler, D. (2009). The Coming Entrepreneurship Boom. Kansas City: Ewing Marion Foundation.

Stetler, B., & Wortham, J. (2010, February 22). F.C.C. Takes a Close Look at the Unwired. Retrieved from The New York Times:

Tahmincioglu, E. (2010, January 25). Workers finding fulfillment in encore careers. Retrieved from :

US Census Bureau. (2010, March 11). American Community Survey (ACS). Retrieved December 2009, from US Census Bureau:

Executive Summary

The Demographics Chapter covers basic population data from Monmouth County, the extensive PAR data collected by the College, and selected data from areas which impinge on the educational process. Demographics is always an inexact science, and the current insecure economic climate along with the uncertain future of the Fort Monmouth property makes it especially so in 2010. Moreover, as this chapter is written, census questionnaires are distributed for the 2010 census that could significantly alter the recommendations in this chapter.

The major conclusion from the population section is that the county is growing more slowly, an estimated growth of .37% per year over the next 16 years, radically slower growth than in past decades. The county will also get older and the high school graduation rates will flatten or decrease. Only the Western part of the county will experience real growth and only the Hispanic population is expected to rise appreciably.

The PAR data section clearly shows that Brookdale’s current growth is from retaining more students. The HEC’s and Branch Campus are sites of major growth. The entering cohort of students shows a consistent percentage of underprepared students, and data of student progress shows a parallel between under prepared students and the students who underachieve at Brookdale. The student body is getting progressively younger, especially among full time students. On line enrollment is growing while the on line completion rates are about 10% lower than face to face.

The final section of this chapter deals with areas that can affect the educational process, like technology, or reveal other areas of interest, like non-traditional students (Non-Trads). Technology inspired the greatest debates in this chapter with some colleagues feeling that students were becoming cognitively different while others felt technology had negative effects on entering students. Everyone agreed that technology evolves so quickly that the College needs to be wary about how it commits major resources to this area. National surveys showed that students find faculty in general underprepared for technology and some surveys suggest a “users gap” between affluent and non-affluent students. While textbooks have only partially adapted to new technologies, it seemed likely that major changes are in store in this area.

Rapidly changing economic factors and an aging population base indicate that the College needs to continue developing short term workforce programs and certificates. The credit and non-credit areas need to work as a continuum to react to job market demands and customer needs. Encore careers will become more popular and entrepreneurship will be common. Brookdale should be a clearing house for training the county workforce as well as providing transfer opportunities.

MAJOR RECOMMENDATIONS:

1. The Demographics Chapter task force should remain a working group to examine the 2010 census as the results become public beginning in December 2010.

2. Brookdale must seek growth in revenue and students from new target markets not organic growth from traditional markets.

3. Brookdale must develop a unified strategy for ESL.

4. In reaction to an aging population, Brookdale must continue expanding programs, options and certificates in medical fields.

5. Brookdale must be proactive in developing programs for the rising senior population.

6. The Western Monmouth Branch Campus needs to grow to accept the rising population in Western Monmouth County.

7. The College must make a major commitment to increasing completion rates in on line and hybrid teaching.

8. The College must make a major commitment to increasing completion and retention rates for underprepared students.

9. The College must be aggressive in training faculty to adapt to new technologies.

10. The College must develop an ethos where education is a continuum of services including credit, non-credit, and mixed opportunities.

-----------------------

[1] Western Monmouth is one of five regions of Monmouth County. It consists of Marlboro, Manalapan, Englishtown, Freehold Boro, Freehold, Howell, and Farmingdale.

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