Topic:



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|Topic: Chapter 11 |Name: ________________________________ Date: _______________________ |

| |Objective: |

|Questions/Main Ideas: |I can |

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| |[pic] |

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| |a random selection – |

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| |truly random values are surprisingly hard to get. |

| |pick a number |

|Random Numbers |1 2 3 4 |

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| |almost 75% of people pick the 3 |

| |about 20% pick either the 2 or the 4 |

| |only about 5% choose the 1 |

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| |we’ve got to find a better way to choose things at random |

| |computer software / Internet (ActivStats CD) |

| |5:RandInt on calculator (TI Tips) |

| |Random Number Table (page A-117) |

|Ways to choose things at random| |

| |randInt(1,6) produces a random integer from 1 to 6, a good way to simulate rolling a dice |

| |_______________ simulates a coin toss |

| |_________________________simulates tossing 5 coins |

|Example of calculator | |

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| |_____________________ – a sequence of random outcomes that model a situation |

| |_______________________________ – the basic events of the simulation |

| |_______________________________ – possible ways that the component will end |

|Important Vocabulary |_______________________________ – sequence of events we want to investigate |

| |_______________________________ – what actually happened during the trial |

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| |identify the _________________________________ to be repeated |

| |explain how you will _______________________________________________ |

| |explain how you will _______________________________________________ |

|Steps for Making a Simulation |state clearly what the __________________________________________will be |

| |run “several” _____________________________ |

| |analyze the ________________________________ |

| |state your conclusion IN CONTEXT of the problem |

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| |don’t overstate your case…it’s ONLY a simulation, not the real thing. it WILL be wrong from time to time. it only suggests what MIGHT happen. |

| |model the outcome chances accurately |

|What can go wrong: |run enough trials. later, a precise number will be given. for now, try to shoot for about 20. |

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| |Suppose a basketball player has an 80% free throw success rate. How can we use random numbers to simulate whether or not she makes a foul shot? |

| |How many shots might she be able to make in a row without missing? Describe the waiting time simulation of having her shoot free throws until she|

| |misses, counting the number of successes. |

|What are some other examples of| |

|simulations? |Component: |

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| |Trial: |

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| |Response Variable: |

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| |Statistic: |

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| |Discuss how to handle related by different situations. |

| |How would our simulation procedure change if her success rate was only 72%? |

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| |Component: |

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| |Trial: |

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| |Response Variable: |

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| |Statistic: |

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| |How would a trial and our response variable change if we wanted to know how many shot she would make out of 5 chance she gets at a crucial point |

| |in the game? |

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|Summary: | |

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