Topic:
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|Topic: Chapter 11 |Name: ________________________________ Date: _______________________ |
| |Objective: |
|Questions/Main Ideas: |I can |
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| |[pic] |
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| |a random selection – |
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| |truly random values are surprisingly hard to get. |
| |pick a number |
|Random Numbers |1 2 3 4 |
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| |almost 75% of people pick the 3 |
| |about 20% pick either the 2 or the 4 |
| |only about 5% choose the 1 |
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| |we’ve got to find a better way to choose things at random |
| |computer software / Internet (ActivStats CD) |
| |5:RandInt on calculator (TI Tips) |
| |Random Number Table (page A-117) |
|Ways to choose things at random| |
| |randInt(1,6) produces a random integer from 1 to 6, a good way to simulate rolling a dice |
| |_______________ simulates a coin toss |
| |_________________________simulates tossing 5 coins |
|Example of calculator | |
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| |_____________________ – a sequence of random outcomes that model a situation |
| |_______________________________ – the basic events of the simulation |
| |_______________________________ – possible ways that the component will end |
|Important Vocabulary |_______________________________ – sequence of events we want to investigate |
| |_______________________________ – what actually happened during the trial |
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| | |
| |identify the _________________________________ to be repeated |
| |explain how you will _______________________________________________ |
| |explain how you will _______________________________________________ |
|Steps for Making a Simulation |state clearly what the __________________________________________will be |
| |run “several” _____________________________ |
| |analyze the ________________________________ |
| |state your conclusion IN CONTEXT of the problem |
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| |don’t overstate your case…it’s ONLY a simulation, not the real thing. it WILL be wrong from time to time. it only suggests what MIGHT happen. |
| |model the outcome chances accurately |
|What can go wrong: |run enough trials. later, a precise number will be given. for now, try to shoot for about 20. |
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| |Suppose a basketball player has an 80% free throw success rate. How can we use random numbers to simulate whether or not she makes a foul shot? |
| |How many shots might she be able to make in a row without missing? Describe the waiting time simulation of having her shoot free throws until she|
| |misses, counting the number of successes. |
|What are some other examples of| |
|simulations? |Component: |
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| |Trial: |
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| |Response Variable: |
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| |Statistic: |
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| |Discuss how to handle related by different situations. |
| |How would our simulation procedure change if her success rate was only 72%? |
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| |Component: |
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| |Trial: |
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| |Response Variable: |
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| |Statistic: |
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| |How would a trial and our response variable change if we wanted to know how many shot she would make out of 5 chance she gets at a crucial point |
| |in the game? |
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|Summary: | |
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