U.S. Population Projections: 2012 to 2060
U.S. Population Projections: 2012 to 2060
Jennifer M. Ortman Population Division
Presentation for the FFC/GW Brown Bag Seminar Series on Forecasting
Washington, DC February 7, 2013
U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
2012 National Projections
? First series based on the 2010 Census ? Projections of the U.S. population by age,
sex, race, and Hispanic origin ? Covers the period from 2012 to 2060
U.S. Department of Commerce
Economics and Statistics Administration
2
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
Overview
? Methodology and assumptions
? Mortality ? Fertility ? Net International Migration
? Highlights from the results
U.S. Department of Commerce
Economics and Statistics Administration
3
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
Making Population Projections
Starting
Births and
Population Immigrants
Deaths and
Emigrants
Future Population
U.S. Department of Commerce
Economics and Statistics Administration
4
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
Mortality Projections
? One series of mortality projections
? Three race and Hispanic origin groups
? Non-Hispanic White and Asian or Pacific Islander (API)
? Non-Hispanic Black and American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN)
? Hispanic
U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
Note: The superseded Asian and Pacific Islander combined category is used due to the lack of historical data for the current categories of: (1) Asian and (2) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander.
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