How do you do probability in excel

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How do you do probability in excel

Probability is defined as the likelihood for which an event is probable, or likely to happen. It is measured through the ratio of favorable events to the total number of possible cases. Excel has a built-in formula to calculate probability through the PROB function. Figure 1. Final result: Calculate Probability Syntax of PROB =PROB(range, prob_range, [lower_limit], [upper_limit]) range ? the range of numeric values containing our data prob_range ? the range of probabilities for each corresponding value in our range lower_limit ? optional; the lower limit of the values for which we want to calculate the probability upper_limit ? optional; the upper limit of the values for which we want to calculate the probability How to calculate probability? In order to obtain reliable probability results, we should be able to prepare the data prior to calculation. Prepare our data Below table contains a list of Product Sales and their corresponding probabilities. The sum of all probabilities should be equal to 100. Otherwise, the PROB function returns the #NUM! error. Figure 2. Sample data to calculate probability We want to calculate the probability that a product sales is between 50 and 80. Calculating probability To perform the calculation, we enter this formula in cell C11 =PROB(B4:B7,C4:C7,C9,C10) Where B4:B7 is the range containing the values for product sales, C4:C7 contains the probabilities for each sales quantity, C9 is the lower limit of 50 while C10 is the upper limit of 80. Figure 3. Entering the probability formula As a result, the probability in cell C11 is 0.68 or 68%, which is the probability that product sales is between 50 and 80. Calculate the probability without upper limit If there is no upper limit, the PROB function returns the probability of being equal to the lower limit only. Example: If we omitted the upper limit in our formula, the result in cell C11 is 0.50 or 50%, which is also the probability of product sales being equal to 50. Figure 4. Probability formula without upper limit Instant Connection to an Excel Expert Most of the time, the problem you will need to solve will be more complex than a simple application of a formula or function. If you want to save hours of research and frustration, try our live Excelchat service! Our Excel Experts are available 24/7 to answer any Excel question you may have. We guarantee a connection within 30 seconds and a customized solution within 20 minutes. Very often, when working in Excel, it is necessary to use calculations of the probability of occurrence of a certain event. For this, the statistical function PROB is used. It is worth noting that Excel and other statistical functions are used frequently, for example: VAR; HYPGEOM.DIST; FORECAST and others. PROB function calculates the probability that the values from the interval are within the specified limits. If the upper limit is not specified, then the probability that the value of the argument Range_x will be equal to the value of the argument called lower_limit will be returned. Example 1. A table of the range of numerical values is given, as well as the probabilities that correspond to them: When using this statistical function, it is necessary to calculate the probability of an event that the value from the specified interval falls within the range [1,4]. To do this, we introduce PROB function with the following arguments: here: X_range is the initial data (0, ..., 4); Prob_range is the set of probabilities for the initial data (0.15; 0.1; 0.15; 0.2; 0.4); Lower_limit is 1; [Upper_limit] is 4. As a result of the calculations we get: Example 2. In the condition of the previous example, it is necessary to calculate the probability of the event " value of x is 4". Enter in cell C3, we introduce PROB function with the following arguments: here: X_range - initial parameters (0,...,4); Prob_range - set of probabilities for parameters (0.1,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.4); Lower_limit is 4; In this example, the upper limit is not specified, since a specific probability value is needed, namely for the value 4. We get: PROB function under multiple interval conditions Example 3. In the condition of example 1, it is necessary to calculate the probability that the values of the range [0,4] will be located within the intervals [0,1] and [3,4]. We introduce the formula: Description of formulas similar to the previous examples. As a result of the calculations we get: Download examples PROB function to calculate probability in Excel Thus, making a formula, you can use this function to calculate the percentage of probability under several conditions. Probability describes the likelihood that some event occurs. We can calculate probabilities in Excel by using the PROB function, which uses the following syntax: PROB(x_range, prob_range, lower_limit, [upper_limit]) where: x_range: The range of numeric x values. prob_range: The range of probabilities associated with each x value. lower_limit: The lower limit on the value for which you want a probability. upper_limit: The upper limit on the value for which you want a probability. Optional. This tutorial provides several examples of how to use this function in practice. Example 1: Dice Probabilities The following image shows the probability of a dice landing on a certain value on a given roll: Since the dice is equally likely to land on each value, the probability is the same for each value. The following image shows how to find the probability that the dice lands on a number between 3 and 6: The probability turns out to be 0.5. Note that the upper limit argument is optional. So, we could use the following syntax to find the probability that the dice lands on just 4: The probability turns out to be 0.166667. Example 2: Sales Probabilities The following image shows the probability of a company selling a certain number of products in the upcoming quarter: The following image shows how to find the probability that the company makes either 3 or 4 sales: The probability turns out to be 0.7. Additional Resources How to Calculate Relative Frequency in Excel How to Calculate Cumulative Frequency in Excel How to Create a Frequency Distribution in Excel You probably want to know how to calculate probability with Excel. You will after you take a look at this easy tutorial.PROB function in ExcelYou can use the PROB function to calculate the probability in Excel.PROB function syntax:PROB (range_x, sample_range, lower_limit, [upper_limit]) x_range: range of x values. prob_range: range of x cells. lower_limit: the lower limit of the probability value upper_limit: The upper limit of the probability value is set here. This argument is optional. Here are some examples of how to use the PROB function in Excel to calculate probability.Simple probability example1. Enter data in Excel sheet.2. To calculate probability, use the PROB function.The formula here is =PROB(A2:A10,B2:B10,B13,B14) where A2:A10 is range of marks in this example B2:B10 is a chance of getting the grade from A column B13 is lower range B14 stand for upper range The probability here is 45%.2 dice probability calculatorLet's check what the probability is for rolling two dice.I prepared data.First, I need to calculate the chance of rolling the die.It is possible to roll from 2 to 12 with two dice. The roll chance formula is: =COUNTIF($C$4:$H$9,K4)I used absolute reference in the formula.There are: only one chance to roll 2 and 12 two chances to roll 3 and 11 three chances to roll 4 and 10 four chances to roll 5 and 9 five chances to roll 6 and 8 six chances to roll 7 To calculate the probability of 2 dice, you need to divide the number of chances by the sum of chances.The probability formula for two dice is=$K4/SUM($K$4:$K$14)Two dice probabilities are from 2.78% to 16.67%.Based on the above calculations, you can easily calculate what the probability of rolling doubles is.There are only six chances to do that, so the probability of rolling doubles is 6/36 = 16.67%. The interesting thing is that the probability of rolling doubles is exactly the same as rolling 7.The probability of a coin flipIt is 50% to flip the head and 50% to flip the tail. Have you ever wondered what the probability is of flipping the head (or tail) 11 times in a row? Let's calculate it in Excel.First, let's calculate the probability of flipping a head once. It is easy. 50%. head or flip.By translating it to the Excel language, we can create an Excel formula: =POWER(0.5,1)Further, the probability is equal to =POWER(0.5, number_of_tries).The probability of flipping a head (or tail) 11 times in a row equals 0.04883%, which is less than 0.05%!Flipping a head 10 times is 0.09766% probable.Flipping your head (or tail) 20 times in a row is 0.000095% probable.We can also look for the possibility of flipping heads (or tails) several times in a row. It's easy because each time is 2 times less probable.It's 1: 2048 odds of flipping a head (or tail) 11 times in a row. It means that every 2048 times you flip a coin, 11 times you flip 11 heads (or tails).Poker probabilityIt will be fun to analyze the poker probabilities.First, use the Excel function to check the number of poker combinations. There are 52 cards, from which you get only 5. From a mathematical point of view, it is a simple combination to be used. There is an Excel function COMBIN, for that. Functions take just two arguments as a combination. Simply use the Excel formula =COMBIN(52,5)It turns out there are 2,598,960 combinations in poker.To calculate the probability of getting a pair or two pairs, you need to calculate the number of combinations of getting them. And then just divide the two numbers.The probability is: To get a pair 42.26% To get two pair 4.75 For a three of a kind 2.11% Straight 0.39% Full house 0.2% Four of a kind 0.14% Four of a kind 0.02% Straight flush 0.0014% Royal flush 0.000038% (1:649,736 odds) You can download the spreadsheet in here.Page 2 Details The z-score, also known as the standard score, is a measurement used in statistics. It is the measurement of the number of standard deviations that a specific number is above or below a mean. The formula to calculating the z-score is: z = (x - ) / where: z is the z-score, x is the value to be standardized, is the mean of the given set of data, is the standard deviation of the given set of data. Suppose you are a student and there are a total of 10 students in your class, including you. After the final exam result is published, you will want to know how well you performed compared to the average student's mean score. You can find this easily using z-score.Calculate z-scoreOpen Excel and save your file as zscore.xlsx. Type "Name" in A1, "Marks" in B1, "z-score" in C1, "Mean" in F1 and "Standard Deviation" in F2. You should not enter the double quotes when you type in the data. You can format these cells and make them bold. In cells A2 to A11, type ten different names, and in cells B2 to B11, type ten different marks. Now your screen will look like this, though the entries are different.Click on cell G1 and go to Formulas (main menu) --> More Functions (in the Function Library group) --> Statistical and select the AVERAGE function.You will get a screen like this:In the text box Number1, enter B2:B11 and click OK.Click on cell G2 and go to Formulas (main menu) --> More Functions (in the Function Library group) --> Statistical and select the STDEVPA function.You will get a screen like this:In the text box Value1, enter B2:B11 and click OK.Now your screen will look like this:Click on cell C2 and go to Formulas (main menu) --> More Functions (in the Function Library group) --> Statistical and select the STANDARDIZE function.You will get a window like this:Enter "B2" in the X text box, enter "$G$1" in the Mean text box, and "$G$2" in the Standard_dev text box. Click OK and you will get a value in the cell C2. Copy the formula in cell C2 and paste it into cells C3?C11. Now your screen will look like this. Of course, the values would be different based on your entries.Instead of using the STANDARDIZE function, you can directly enter the formula in the address bar like this:In this case, we are using the formula to calculate the z-score directly instead of using the built-in STANDARDIZE function.If you analyze the data, you will find that the highest z-score value is 1.600279 which is the z-score of Paul Lopez, who scored the highest marks of 592. Sarah Chris has got the lowest z-score and, obviously, the lowest score in the exam.You can find both positive and negative z-scores. Students who got scores higher than the mean (value in cell G1) get positive z-scores and those who scored less than the mean get negative z-scores. If the z-score of a student is zero, it means that his or her score is the same as the mean value. We can test this easily. Adjust the scores in such a way that one of the students' scores is the same as the average. Make changes to the scores as shown in the following image:Here, you could find that the z-score of Sarah Chris is 0 because her score is the same as the average score. Students who scored more than 500 have a positive z-score and those who scored less than 500 have a negative z-score.Further reading: How to calculate the real interest rate? How to Calculate Efficiency? Page 3 Details In this lesson, you will learn how to calculate ROI in Excel.What is ROI?ROI stands for return on investment. Return on investment is one of the most basic measures in business. A ROI is a profitability indicator that is used to measure the efficiency of a company, regardless of the structure of its assets or extraordinary factors. Return on investment is also helpful for project managers because it helps them calculate the efficiency of the project.Let's build the return on investment calculator in Excel. To calculate ROI in Excel, first you need some data. You require a net profit and the cost of the investment.How to calculate?Copy and paste this ROI formula into cell B4: =B2/B3This formula will calculate the ROI for the investment data you place in cells B2 and C2 and is based on the ROI equation formula:ROI = Net Profit / Investment CostIn other words, the ROI is simply the return on the amount invested, so the equation can be written alternatively like this:ROI = (Present Value - Starting Value) / Starting ValueRemember to format the ROI as a percentage. Click on the B4 cell > CTRL + 1 keyboard shortcut > Percentage with 2 decimal places.The result is greater than 0, so this is the profit from an investment, which is 7.34%.When the result is below zero, it is a loss.Things to rememberRemember that the return on investment result does not take into account a few important aspects that you should be aware of.Typically, the return on investment is calculated as the market value of the investment divided by its initial value. Market value does not mean that it is the amount of cash that you are currently getting. In fact, you may find that the cash you are able to get is lower.You should also consider the time it takes to cash in your investment, which can be long.Return on investment is the ratio of the present value to the initial value without accounting for inflation, taxes, costs of obtaining capital or risk. The low value of the return on investment may not compensate for the risk premium or may be lower than inflation.It is recommended to calculate the annual return on investment and compound annual growth rate as well, which can give you more information about the true success of your investment.Download a free sample spreadsheet here.Further reading: How to calculate ROE? How to calculate ROA? How to calculate ROCE? How to calculate ROIC? Page 4 Details In this lesson, you will learn how to calculate CAGR in Excel.What is CAGR?CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is the year-over-year average growth rate over a period of time. By calculating CAGR, you can check how much you earn annually with your investments.There are several ways to calculate CAGR in Excel.Methods of CAGR calculationsMethod 1. Dedicated formulaTo calculate CAGR, you can use that formula:= ((FV/PV)^(1/n)) - 1 FV stands for Future Value PV stands for Present Value n stands for count of investment years The picture shows an example of the formula. I think everything is clear.Method 2. RRI functionThe other way is to use the RRI Excel function.RRI function takes 3 arguments: nper (the same as n in the previous example) PV FV In such a situation, the function in the given example will be: =RRI(C6,C5,C4) The results are the same, so it proves that both of the methods are working the same way.Method 3. Power functionCalculating CAGR is possible with the Power functionThe other way to calculate a Compound Annual Growth Rate is possible with a Power Excel function.The formula would be like this: =POWER(I4/I5,1/COUNT(C6:I6))-1 which is in fact =POWER(FV/PV,1/NPER)-1Power function usage might be surprising to you, but the explanation is simple. To calculate a CAGR, you just need to calculate the rate of future value divided by present value. At this rate, you should power by the number of periods, which is 7 in our example. Of course, the result needs to be decreased by 1 to get the percentage value.Method 4. GEOMEAN functionAnother example to calculate cagr is to use the cagr function.The first step is to calculate the growth factor. It is simply the ratio of future value to present value. Growth factor is greater than zero when the future value is greater than the present value, and less than zero when the present value is greater.Then, using the geomean function, we calculate the geometric mean of the growth factor. The CAGR is the geometric mean minus one.The full geomean formula is: =GEOMEAN(C6:I6)-1You can download that spreadsheet here for free.Page 5 Details Something tricky today. Let's create some backwards VLOOKUP formula. It's quite easy, but not obvious. Here's an example.Sample dataset for VlookupThe sample data table shows the products and prices. You try to find the price.Backwards Vlookup formulaIndex match functions combination would be useful for you here.The formula of reverse VLOOKUP is: =INDEX($C$3:$C$10,MATCH($F$3,$B$3:$B$10,0)) Explanation:C column - prices - array where you have your values whose you are looking for.B column - products - names of all products which prices you know.F3 - name of the product, which price you are looking for.Now you know that you can also do a reverse vlookup.Further reading: How to create many to many lookup? Case Sensitive VLOOKUP Page 6 Details Doing vlookup for a range of values is also possible. Here you have an example which shows you how to deal with vlookup for a range in Excel.Vlookup formula with range of valuesYour company set the new targets of sales. If employee reached the target, he will get a bonus. The higher target is the higher bonus. Let's calculate the bonus using vlookup function.Your formula looks like below:=IFNA(VLOOKUP($C2,$A$2:$B$6,2,1),0)How it works?C2 - here is the lookup valueA2:B6 - this is a whole range of data (table_array)2 - number of column in the range1 - stands for approximate matchIFNA - this function checks if there is some bonus. If not it writes $0.Page 7 Details In this lesson you will learn how to zoom in your graph. It will help you improving visibility of values in your graph.The most important in charting is visibility. In this lesson you will learn how to zoom in your graph.Zooming SheetThe easiest way is to zoom in the Sheet. To do it go to right corner of screen and click + buttonIt makes whole Sheet bigger. Chart will be bigger too.Changing scale of axisOther method is to change scale of axis. Excel automatcally fits scale of axis.If your chart looks that:You can change it to that look:You can easy improve wrong scale yourselves. Right click axis and select Format Axis.Change Min and Max values to fit them to your values.Notice that scale of proper axis starts from $40,25. You don't need to starts from $0.Using logarithmic scaleThe other way is using logarithmic scale. Use logarithmic scale when there is huge difference between values at your graph.Right click axis and next Format Axis. Tick Logarithmic scale check box.Now graph looks much better. Every 3 lines are visible well.

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