Statistics and risk modelling using Python

Statistics and risk modelling using Python

Eric Marsden

Statistics is the science of learning from experience, particularly experience that arrives a little bit at a time. -- B. Efron, Stanford

Learning objectives

Using Python/SciPy tools: 1 Analyze data using descriptive statistics and graphical tools 2 Fit a probability distribution to data (estimate distribution parameters) 3 Express various risk measures as statistical tests 4 Determine quantile measures of various risk metrics 5 Build flexible models to allow estimation of quantities of interest and

associated uncertainty measures 6 Select appropriate distributions of random variables/vectors for stochastic

phenomena

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Where does this fit into risk engineering?

curve

fitting

data

probabilistic model

consequence model

event probabilities

event consequences

risks

3 / 87

Where does this fit into risk engineering?

curve

fitting

data

probabilistic model

consequence model

event probabilities

event consequences

risks

costs

criteria

decision-making

3 / 87

Where does this fit into risk engineering?

curve

fitting

data

probabilistic model

consequence model

These slides

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event probabilities

event consequences

risks

costs

criteria

decision-making

Angle of attack: computational approach to statistics

Emphasize practical results rather than formul? and proofs Include new statistical tools which have become practical thanks to

power of modern computers ? "resampling" methods, "Monte Carlo" methods Our target: "Analyze risk-related data using computers" If talking to a recruiter, use the term data science ? very sought-after skill in 2019!

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A sought-after skill

Source: jobtrends 6 / 87

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