OTexts



Test BankForecastingWhich simple forecasting method says the forecast is equal to the mean of the historical data?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodWhich simple forecasting method says the forecast is equal to the last observed value?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodWhich simple forecasting method says the forecast is equal to the last value from the same season?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodWhich simple forecasting method says the forecast is equal to the last value plus the average change?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodWhich simple forecasting method is a consequence of the efficient market hypothesis?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodWhich simple forecasting method is equivalent to extrapolating a line draw between the first and lost observations?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodWhich simple forecasting method uses the formula yT+hT=y?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodWhich simple forecasting method uses the formula yT+hT=yT?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodWhich simple forecasting method uses the formula yT+hT=yT+h-km?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodWhich simple forecasting method uses the formula yT+hT=hT-1(yT-y1)?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodWhich simple forecasting method uses the command meanf(x)?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodWhich simple forecasting method uses the command naive(x)?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodWhich simple forecasting method uses the command snaive(x)?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodWhich simple forecasting method uses the command rwf(x, drift=TRUE)?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodWhich of the following is an assumption made about forecasting residuals?Residuals are normally distributedResiduals are uncorrelatedResiduals have constant varianceNone of the aboveWhich of the following is an assumption made about forecasting residuals?Residuals have mean zeroResiduals are normally distributedResiduals have constant varianceNone of the aboveWhich of the following is useful property of forecasting residuals?Residuals have mean zeroResiduals are uncorrelatedResiduals have constant varianceNone of the aboveWhich of the following is useful property of forecasting residuals?Residuals are normally distributedResiduals are uncorrelatedResiduals have mean zeroNone of the aboveWhat is the consequence of forecasting residuals that are not uncorrelated?Prediction intervals are difficult to calculateInformation is left in the residuals that should be usedForecasts are biasedNone of the aboveWhat is the consequence of forecasting residuals that don’t have mean zero?Prediction intervals are difficult to calculateInformation is left in the residuals that should be usedForecasts are biasedNone of the aboveWhich measure of forecast accuracy has the formula T-1t=1Tyt-ytt-1?MAEMSERMSEMAPEWhich measure of forecast accuracy has the formula T-1t=1Tyt-ytt-12MAEMSERMSEMAPEWhich measure of forecast accuracy has the formula T-1t=1Tyt-ytt-12?MAEMSERMSEMAPEWhich measure of forecast accuracy has the formula 100T-1t=1Tyt-ytt-1yt?MAEMSERMSEMAPEWhich measure of forecast accuracy is scale independent?MAEMSERMSEMAPEThe training set should make up approximately what percent of the data?20%50%60%80%The test set should make up approximately what percent of the data?20%50%60%80%Which of the following is the command for making a time plot?plot(x)seasonplot(x)monthplot(x)Acf(x)Calculation of forecasts is based on what?Test setTraining setBothNeitherForecast accuracy is based on what?Test setTraining setBothNeeitherWhich of the following is the command for making a seasonal plot?plot(x)seasonplot(x)monthplot(x)Acf(x)Which of the following is the command for making a seasonal subseries plot?plot(x)seasonplot(x)monthplot(x)Acf(x)Which of the following is the command for making a ACF plot?plot(x)seasonplot(x)monthplot(x)Acf(x)Which of the following allows you to see departures from the seasonal pattern?Time plotSeasonal plotSeasonal subseries plotACF plotWhich of the following allows you to see changes in seasonality over time?Time plotSeasonal plotSeasonal subseries plotACF plotA long term increase or decrease in the data is known as what?TrendSeasonalCyclicalWhite NoiseA series that is influenced by seasonal factors is known as what?TrendSeasonalCyclicalWhite NoiseData that exhibits rises and falls that are not of a fixed period is known as what?TrendSeasonalCyclicalWhite Noise39. Data that is uncorrelated over time is known as what?TrendSeasonalCyclicalWhite NoiseWhich of the following is not a component of time series decomposition?SeasonalTrend-CycleAutocorrelationRemainderWhich of the following time series decomposition models is appropriate when the magnitude of the seasonal fluctuations are not proportional to the level?AdditiveMultiplicativeBothNeitherWhich of the following time series decomposition models is appropriate when the magnitude of the seasonal fluctuations are proportional to the level?AdditiveMultiplicativeBothNeitherWhich of the following time series decomposition models is more prevalent with economic series?AdditiveMultiplicativeBothNeitherWhat is the R command for doing classical decomposition?classical(x)decompose(x)stl(x)method(x)What is the R command for doing STL decomposition?classical(x)decompose(x)stl(x)method(x)Exhibit 1lefttopLine ALine B (Straight Line)Line C (Not Straight)Refer to Exhibit 1. Line A is which simple forecasting method?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodRefer to Exhibit 1. Line B is which simple forecasting method?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodRefer to Exhibit 1. Line C is which simple forecasting method?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodFigure 2lefttopLine ALine BLine CRefer to Exhibit 2. Line A is which simple forecasting method?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodRefer to Exhibit 2. Line B is which simple forecasting method?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodRefer to Exhibit 2. Line C is which simple forecasting method?Average MethodNa?ve MethodSeasonal Na?ve MethodDrift MethodFigure 3Refer to Exhibit 3. The peaks are in which quarter?Quarter 1Quarter 2Quarter 3Quarter 4Refer to Exhibit 3. The trough are in which quarter?Quarter 1Quarter 2Quarter 3Quarter 4Figure 4Refer to Exhibit 4. The peaks are in which quarter?Quarter 1Quarter 2Quarter 3Quarter 4Refer to Exhibit 4. The trough are in which quarter?Quarter 1Quarter 2Quarter 3Quarter 4Refer to Exhibit 4. In which quarter is there a decline in the seasonal affect?Quarter 1Quarter 2Quarter 3Quarter 4Figure 5Year 1Year 2Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4106812117913Refer to Figure 5. Using the average method, what is the forecast of Quarter 2 of Year 3? (Don’t use a calculator.)79.513.8513Refer to Figure 5. Using the na?ve method, what is the forecast of Quarter 2 of Year 3? (Don’t use a calculator.)79.513.8513Refer to Figure 5. Using the seasonal na?ve method, what is the forecast of Quarter 2 of Year 3? (Don’t use a calculator.)79.513.8513Refer to Figure 5. Using the drift method, what is the forecast of Quarter 2 of Year 3? (Don’t use a calculator.)79.513.8513 ................
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