Oregonlive



Introduction & Methodology

On behalf of KGW TV, The Oregonian, and OregonLive, Riley Research Associates conducted a statewide telephone survey among 608 registered voters who indicated they were either very likely or certain to vote in the upcoming November election.

In past polls only those with a record of having voted in at least two of the last four elections were included. In this race, because many new voters have registered in the past year, we allowed new and less likely voters to participate, provided they indicated they are either “certain” or “extremely likely” to vote in the November 8th election.

A sample of 608 is considered accurate to within +/-3.97 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. The scientific telephone poll took place between October 4th and October 14th, 2016.

The sample demographics were closely monitored to ensure they match those of Oregon’s likely voters, including accurate representation for gender, age, political party, and region. Both landlines and cell phones were included in the sample. Candidate names were read in rotating order to respondents in order to eliminate any sense of preference. Candidates’ names were associated with the political parties they represent.

Regions are composed of the following counties:

|Portland Metro |Willamette Valley |Central |Eastern |Coast |South |

|Clackamas |Benton |Crook |Baker |Morrow |Coos |Douglas |

|Columbia |Lane |Deschutes |Gilliam |Sherman |Clatsop |Jackson |

|Multnomah |Linn |Hood River |Grant |Umatilla |Curry |Josephine |

|Washington |Marion |Jefferson |Harney |Union |Lincoln | |

| |Polk |Wasco |Klamath |Wallowa |Tillamook | |

| |Yamhill | |Lake |Wheeler | | |

| | | |Malheur | | | |

Executive Overview

State of Oregon

[pic] Half of Oregonians believe Oregon is on the right track (50%), while two-fifths feel it is on the wrong track (41%), and 9% are unsure. However, feelings are stronger among those who say Oregon is going in the wrong direction, with 23% saying they strongly feel that way, compared to just 12% who strongly feel it is on the right track.

Presidential Race

[pic] Hillary Clinton is poised to win Oregon this November, with 46% of likely voters planning on casting their vote for Clinton, compared to 36% who plan to vote for Donald Trump. Voters feel strongly about their respective candidates, with very few saying they are only somewhat likely to vote for their candidate, and very few are undecided (4%).

Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein each received 5% of the vote, while 4% have plans to write-in a different candidate.

[pic] Those who plan to vote for Hillary Clinton tend to support her as a candidate (55%). Nearly one-third cited experience and qualifications as the main reasons they are voting for Clinton (30%). Most of the remaining 43% of Clinton supporters are voting for Clinton because she is “the lesser of two evils” (25%).

While fewer will vote for Trump, those who do support Trump appear to support him more strongly than those who plan to vote for Hillary Clinton. Some 62% say they are voting for Trump rather than voting against Clinton. The top reasons Oregonians are voting for Trump include his status as a political outsider (14%), his business expertise (13%), and his conservative values (12%); 14% are voting for Trump because he is “the lesser of two evils,” while 8% say Clinton is “corrupt” and 7% say Clinton is not trustworthy.

Gary Johnson supporters tend to feel he is better than the other candidates and is trustworthy. Jill Stein’s supporters feel she is better than the other candidates, is trustworthy, and has business expertise.

Executive Overview (Continued)

Oregon Governor

[pic] Nearly half of Oregonians plan on casting their vote for Democrat and Working Families candidate Kate Brown (48%), with Bud Pierce trailing by 14%, with 34% of the likely vote. A majority of voters feel strongly about their candidate, with most saying they are very likely to vote for their respective candidate.

Other candidates in the running are only tracking at 1% to 2% each, and 13% remain undecided as to which candidate they will vote for in November.

Ballot Measure 97

[pic] Support and opposition for Ballot Measure 97 is at a virtual tie, with 47% indicating they will likely vote to oppose the measure, and 46% saying they will vote to support it. Those who plan to oppose the measure tend to feel a bit stronger about their opposition than those who are supporting the measure. Some remain undecided about the measure (7%).

Results

Q1. First of all, in terms of the way things are going here in Oregon, would you say things are on the right track, or going in the wrong direction? (Strongly or somewhat?)

| |Total |GENDER |AGE |REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY |REGION |VOTING PROPENSITY |MOTOR VOTER |

| | |MALE |FE |18-34 |35-44 |45-54 |55-64 |

| | | |MALE | | | | |

| |Total |WILL VOTE FOR |PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE |INTERVIEW DATE |

| | |CLIN |TRUMP |CLIN |

| | |TON | |TON |

Q2. In this year's presidential election, the candidates on the ballot will include: (Aided)

Which of these four presidential candidates are most likely to get your vote?

| |Total |GENDER |AGE |REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY |REGION |VOTING PROPENSITY |MOTOR VOTER |

| | |MALE |FE |18-34 |35-44 |45-54 |55-64 |

| | | |MALE | | | | |

Q2. In this year's presidential election, the candidates on the ballot will include: (Aided)

Which of these four presidential candidates are most likely to get your vote? (Continued)

| |Total |WILL VOTE FOR |PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE |INTERVIEW DATE |

| | |CLIN |TRUMP |CLIN |

| | |TON | |TON |

Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Democrat Hillary Clinton?

| |Total |GENDER |AGE |REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY |REGION |VOTING PROPENSITY |MOTOR VOTER |

| | |MALE |FE |18-34 |35-44 |45-54 |55-64 |

| | | |MALE | | | | |

| | |MALE |FE |18-34 |35-44 |45-54 |55-64 |

| | | |MALE | | | | |

Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Democrat Hillary Clinton? (Continued)

| |Total |WILL VOTE FOR |PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE |INTERVIEW DATE |

| | |CLIN |TRUMP |CLIN |

| | |TON | |TON |

Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Republican Donald Trump?

| |Total |GENDER |AGE |REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY |REGION |VOTING PROPENSITY |MOTOR VOTER |

| | |MALE |FE |18-34 |35-44 |45-54 |55-64 |

| | | |MALE | | | | |

| | |MALE |FE |18-34 |35-44 |45-54 |55-64 |

| | | |MALE | | | | |

Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Republican Donald Trump? (Continued)

| |Total |WILL VOTE FOR |PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE |INTERVIEW DATE |

| | |CLIN |TRUMP |CLIN |

| | |TON | |TON |

Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Libertarian Gary Johnson?

| |Total |GENDER |AGE |REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY |REGION |VOTING PROPENSITY |MOTOR VOTER |

| | |MALE |FE |18-34 |35-44 |45-54 |55-64 |

| | | |MALE | | | | |

Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Libertarian Gary Johnson? (Continued)

| |Total |WILL VOTE FOR |PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE |INTERVIEW DATE |

| | |CLIN |TRUMP |CLIN |

| | |TON | |TON |

Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Green Party candidate Jill Stein?

| |Total |GENDER |AGE |REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY |REGION |VOTING PROPENSITY |MOTOR VOTER |

| | |MALE |FE |18-34 |35-44 |45-54 |55-64 |

| | | |MALE | | | | |

Q3. Which one issue is leading you to support Green Party candidate Jill Stein? (Continued)

| |Total |WILL VOTE FOR |PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE |INTERVIEW DATE |

| | |CLIN |TRUMP |CLIN |

| | |TON | |TON |

Q4. Which presidential candidate did you vote for back in the May primary election?

| |Total |GENDER |AGE |REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY |REGION |VOTING PROPENSITY |MOTOR VOTER |

| | |MALE |FE |18-34 |35-44 |45-54 |55-64 |

| | | |MALE | | | | |

Q4. Which presidential candidate did you vote for back in the May primary election? (Continued)

| |Total |WILL VOTE FOR |PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE |INTERVIEW DATE |

| | |CLIN |TRUMP |CLIN |

| | |TON | |TON |

Q5. Switching to the Oregon's governor's race, the candidates on the upcoming ballot will include: (Aided)

Which of these gubernatorial candidates will most likely get your vote?

| |Total |GENDER |AGE |REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY |REGION |VOTING PROPENSITY |MOTOR VOTER |

| | |MALE |FE |18-34 |35-44 |45-54 |55-64 |

| | | |MALE | | | | |

Q5. Switching to the Oregon's governor's race, the candidates on the upcoming ballot will include: (Aided)

Which of these gubernatorial candidates will most likely get your vote? (Continued)

| |Total |WILL VOTE FOR |PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE |INTERVIEW DATE |

| | |CLIN |TRUMP |CLIN |

| | |TON | |TON |

Q6. Our last question is about Ballot Measure 97, previously known as IP 28. If approved by voters, this measure would raise corporate taxes on businesses with annual sales that exceed 25 million dollars. If you were filling out your ballot today, would you vote yes to support this new tax, or would you vote no to oppose it? (Is that strongly or somewhat?)

| |Total |GENDER |AGE |REGISTERED POLITICAL PARTY |REGION |VOTING PROPENSITY |MOTOR VOTER |

| | |MALE |FE |18-34 |35-44 |45-54 |55-64 |

| | | |MALE | | | | |

| |Total |WILL VOTE FOR |PRIMARY ELECTION VOTE |INTERVIEW DATE |

| | |CLIN |TRUMP |CLIN |

| | |TON | |TON |

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Oregon Statewide

Likely Voter Survey

Summary & Cross Tabulations

October 18, 2016

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In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

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