Influence diag and decision trees - George Mason University
Decision & Risk Analysis
Influence Diagrams, Decision Trees
Reference: Clemen & Reilly. Making Hard Decisions, 2nd ed. Chapter 3. Duxbury, 2001 NOTE: Some materials for this presentation courtesy of Dr. Dan Maxwell
Decision & Risk Analysis
The Elements of a Decision
? Objectives and means ? Alternatives to choose between ? Uncertainty in Events and Outcomes ? Consequences of the Decision
How do we structure the problem?
Common ways of structuring the decision problem: ? Influence Diagrams ? Decision Trees
Decision & Risk Analysis
Influence Diagrams
Influence
Chance (outcome)
Three Levels of Specification
Decision
Information Arc
Chance (Outcome)
Probabilistic Relevance
DeCtehrmaninciestic
Functional Relevance
Courtesy of Dr. Dan Maxwell
Value
Decision & Risk Analysis
A Simple Influence Diagram
Figure 3.5
Decision & Risk Analysis
Showing Influence with Arrows
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