The Global Risks Report 2018 13th Edition
[Pages:80]Insight Report
The Global Risks Report 2018 13th Edition
The Global Risks Report 2018, 13th Edition, is published by the World Economic Forum.
The information in this report, or on which this report is based, has been obtained from sources that the authors believe to be reliable and accurate. However, it has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy or completeness of any information obtained from third parties. In addition, the statements in this report may provide current expectations of future events based on certain assumptions and include any statement that does not directly relate to a historical fact or a current fact. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are not exhaustive. The companies contributing to this report operate in a continually changing environment and new risks emerge continually. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these statements. The companies contributing to this report undertake no obligation to publicly revise or update any statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise and they shall in no event be liable for any loss or damage arising in connection with the use of the information in this report.
World Economic Forum Geneva
World Economic Forum?
? 2018 ? All rights reserved.
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, or otherwise without the prior permission of the World Economic Forum.
ISBN: 978-1-944835-15-6
REF: 09012018
The report and an interactive data platform are available at
World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland
Tel.: +41 (0) 22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0) 22 786 2744
contact@
Global Risks Landscape
Figure I: The Global Risks Landscape 2018
4.0 Weapons of mass destruction
Extreme weather events
Natural disasters
3.5
3.40 average
Water crises
Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation
Food crises
Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
Cyberattacks
Spread of infectious diseases
Critical information infrastructure breakdown
Fiscal crises
Failure of regional or global governance
Failure of critical infrastructure
Large-scale involuntary migration
Interstate conflict
Man-made environmental
disasters
Profound social instability
Failure of national
governance
Terrorist attacks
Unemployment or underemployment
Asset bubbles in a major economy State collapse or crisis
Data fraud or theft
Energy price shock
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
Impact
Adverse consequences of technological advances
Failure of urban planning
3.0
Unmanageable inflation
Deflation
Illicit trade
2.5
3.0
Likelihood
3.48 average
4.0
5.0
4.5
plotted area
Top 10 risks in terms of
Likelihood
1 Extreme weather events 2 Natural disasters 3 Cyberattacks 4 Data fraud or theft 5 Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation 6 Large-scale involuntary migration 7 Man-made environmental disasters 8 Terrorist attacks 9 Illicit trade 10 Asset bubbles in a major economy
Top 10 risks in terms of
Impact
1 Weapons of mass destruction 2 Extreme weather events 3 Natural disasters 4 Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation 5 Water crises 6 Cyberattacks 7 Food crises 8 Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse 9 Large-scale involuntary migration 10 Spread of infectious diseases
1.0
5.0
Categories
Economic
Environmental
Geopolitical
Societal
Technological
Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2017?2018. Note: Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, 1 representing a risk that is very unlikely to happen and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur. They also assess the impact on each global risk on a scale of 1 to 5 (1: minimal impact, 2: minor impact, 3: moderate impact, 4: severe impact and 5: catastrophic impact). See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description.
Figure II: The Risks-Trends Interconnections Map 2018
Trend Interconnection Map
CChhaannggininggcclimlimaatete
Rising chronic diseases
Increasing national sentiment
Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
Changing landscape of international governance
Degrading environment
Man-made environmental disasters
Food crises
Natural disasters
Extreme weather events
Energy price shock
Failure of urban planning
Water crises Large-scale
involuntary migration
State collapse or crisis
Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation
Spread of infectious diseases
Interstate conflict
Failure of regional or global governance
Weapons of mass destruction
Shifting power
Rising urbanization
Failure of critical infrastructure
Profound social instability
Terrorist attacks
Critical information infrastructure breakdown
Adverse consequences of technological advances
Cyberattacks
Illicit trade
Failure of national governance
Unemployment or underemployment
Fiscal crises
Unmanageable inflation
Deflation
Increasing polarization of ssoocciieettiieess
Growing middle class in emerging economies
Data fraud or theft
Rising geographic mobility Rising geographic mobility
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
Asset bubbles in a major economy
Rising income and wealth disparity
Rising cyber dependency Rising cyber dependency
Economic Risks
Environmental Risks
Geopolitical Risks
Societal Risks
Technological Risks
Ageing population Risks
Trends
Number and strength of connections ("weighted degree")
Number and strength of connections ("weighted degree")
Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2017?2018. Note: Survey respondents were asked to select the three trends that are the most important in shaping global development in the next 10 years. For each of the three trends identified, respondents were asked to select the risks that are most strongly driven by those trends. See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description.
FRigiusrekIIII:nThteeGrcloboanl RniskescIntteiroconnnMectiaonps Map 2018
Man-made environmental
disasters
Food crises
Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
Natural disasters
Extreme weather events
Energy price shock
Water crises
Large-scale involuntary migration
Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation
Interstate conflict
Spread of infectious diseases
Failure of urban planning
Weapons of mass destruction
State collapse or crisis
Failure of critical infrastructure
Terrorist attacks
Profound social instability
Failure of regional or global governance
Failure of national governance
Adverse consequences of technological advances
Unemployment or underemployment
Unmanageable inflation
Critical information infrastructure breakdown
Cyberattacks
Illicit trade
Fiscal crises
Deflation
Data fraud or theft
Failure of financial mechanism or institution
Asset bubbles in a major economy
Economic Risks
Environmental Risks
Geopolitical Risks
Societal Risks
Technological Risks
Number and strength of connections ("weighted degree")
Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2017?2018. Note: Survey respondents were asked to identify between three and six pairs of global risks they believe to be most interconnected. See Appendix B for more details. To ensure legibility, the names of the global risks are abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description.
Figure IV: The Evolving Risks Landscapes, 2008?2018
Top 5 Global Risks in Terms of Likelihood
2008
2009
2010
Asset price 1st collapse
Asset price collapse
Asset price collapse
Middle East 2nd instability
Breakdown of critical information infrastructure
Slowing Chinese
Slowing Chinese
economy ( ................
................
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