Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends

Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends

Yardeni Research, Inc.

November 3, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Debbie Johnson

480-664-1333 djohnson@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

S&P 500 Earnings & Revenue Growth

1

Revenues & Earnings

2

S&P 500 Revenues

3

S&P 500 Operating Earnings

4-6

S&P 500 Dividend Yield

7

S&P 500 Dividends

8

S&P 500 Write-Offs

9

November 3, 2021 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends

Yardeni Research, Inc.



S&P 500 Earnings & Revenue Growth

Figure 1.

120

S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE GROWTH* 100 (yearly percent change)

120 Latest data thru 11/1/2021

100

80

80

Actual

60

y/y growth

60

Estimated

40

y/y growth**

40

20

20

Q4

0

0

-20

-20

-40

-40

-60

-60

-80

-80

-100

-100



-120

-120

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Yearly growth rates capped at +100% and -100% due to extreme values. ** Industry analysts' consensus expected earnings growth.

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Figure 2.

30

S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE

25

(yearly percent change)

20

30 Latest (21.8)

25

Q2 20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-15

-20

-20



-25

-25

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 1 / November 3, 2021 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Revenues & Earnings

Figure 3.

1800

1800

S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL

(dollars)

1600

10/21

1600

1400

Q2 1400

1200

1200

Revenues Per Share

Forward Revenues*

Revenues**

1000

(4Q sum)

1000



800

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. ** Actual 4Q sum from Standard & Poor's.

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor's.

Figure 4.

1600

S&P 500 EARNINGS & REVENUES

Revenues

1400

(trailing 4-quarter sum)

Earnings*

1200

(trailing 4-quarter sum)

190 QQ23

170 150 130

110 1000

90

800

70

50 600

30



400

10

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Operating earnings. Source: Standard & Poor's.

Page 2 / November 3, 2021 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 5.

400

S&P 500 REVENUES (dollars per share)

375

S&P 500 Revenues

400

Q2 375

350

350

325

325

300

300

275

275

250

250

225

225

200

200

175

175



150

150

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Source: Census Bureau and Standard & Poor's.

Figure 6.

25

S&P 500 REVENUES* (yearly percent change)

20

25

Q2 20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

-10

-10

-15

-15

-20

-20



-25

-25

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Using dollars per share. Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

Page 3 / November 3, 2021 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends

Yardeni Research, Inc.



S&P 500 Operating Earnings

Figure 7.

55

S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS 50 (dollars per share)

55 Q2

50

45

45

40

40

35

Total (52.8)

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5



0

0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 8.

60

S&P 500 OPERATING EPS (yearly percent change)

40 Total (50.0)

20

Capped at 50

60 Q2

40

20

0

0

-20

-20

-40

-40

-60

-60



-80

-80

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 4 / November 3, 2021 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends

Yardeni Research, Inc.



S&P 500 Operating Earnings

Figure 9.

500

S&P 500 AGGREGATE NET INCOME (billion dollars)

400

500

Q2 400

300

300

200

200

100

100

0

0

Operating (440.0)

-100

Reported (409.0)

-100

-200

-200



-300

-300

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation.

Figure 10.

55

S&P 500 OPERATING EPS: THOMSON REUTERS vs. S&P MEASURES 50 (dollars per share)

55 Q2

50

45

45

40

Thomson (52.76)

40

35

S&P (52.05)

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0



-5

-5

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 5 / November 3, 2021 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends

Yardeni Research, Inc.



S&P 500 Operating Earnings

Figure 11.

200

S&P 500 TRAILING 4-QUARTER OPERATING EPS I/B/E/S VS. S&P

180

160 I/B/E/S (183.18)

140

S&P (175.54)

200

Q2

180

Q2

160

140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40



20

20

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poor's and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 12.

30

30

S&P 500 TRAILING 4-QUARTER OPERATING EPS I/B/E/S VS S&P

25

25

20

Dollar Difference in 4-Quarter Operating EPS

20

15

I/B/E/S less S&P

15

10

10

Q2

5

5

0

0

-5

-5

40

40

35

35

30

30

Percent Difference in 4-Quarter Operating EPS

25

I/B/E/S divided by S&P

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

Q2

5

0

0

-5

-5



-10

-10

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: Standard & Poors and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 6 / November 3, 2021 / Market Briefing: S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Dividends

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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