Bajaj Auto Ltd - Moneycontrol.com

[Pages:7]Bajaj Auto Ltd

RESULT UPDATE

18th October 2017

India Equity Institutional Research II

Result Update ? Q2FY18 II 18th October, 2017

Bajaj Auto Ltd

CMP

Target

INR 3 ,241.1 INR 3481.3

Potential Upside 7%

Market Cap (INR Mn) 944,417

Revival in exports to sustain

Recommendation Accumulate

Sector AUTO

Page 2

Result highlights

?Company's Gross sales stood at INR 65,664 Mn which was up by 2.1% y-o-y and 12.2% q-o-q. Gross sales of the company came in line with our estimates of INR 65,453 Mn. Growth in Gross sales was driven by increase in volumes of motorcycles by 2% Y-o-Y, the company reported highest ever sales of Pulsar (112,075 units) in September 2017 on account of festive season. Also, Commercial vehicles segment of the company grew by 14% Y-o-Y (Domestic by 14% Y-o-Y and Exports 13% Y-o-Y).

?EBIDTA stood at INR 12,975 Mn which was up in line with Q2FY17 EBIDTA of INR 12,945 Mn but increased by 38.3% Q-o-Q. Company's COGS as a percentage of sales grew from 63% in Q2FY17 to 69% in Q2FY18 (i.e. 600bps Y-o-Y). EBIDTA margin came in at 19.8% against our estimate of 16.8%. EBIDTA margins increased by 373 bps Q-o-Q but declined by 37 bps Y-o-Y.

?Adj.PAT was at INR 12,391 Mn which was up by 3.2% y-o-y and showed a robust increase of 48% q-o-q. PAT Margin stood at 16.9% against our expectations of 15.4%. Share in domestic market for motorcycle segment improved from 25% in Q1FY18 to 32% in Q2FY18. And overall share in domestic market (motorcycles and commercial vehicles) improved to 17% in Q2FY18.

MARKET DATA Shares outs (Mn) EquityCap (INR Mn) Mkt Cap (INR Mn) 52 Wk H/L (INR) Volume Avg (3m K) Face Value (INR) Bloomberg Code

289 2894 944417 3310/2510 305.2

10 BJAUT IN

KEY FINANCIALS

Particulars (INR Mn) Net Sales EBITDA PAT OPM (%) NPM (%) EPS PE (x)

2016 226876 47787 37840 21.06% 16.68% 130.8

18.4

Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

2017 217667 44194 40795 20.30% 18.74% 141.0

20.0

2018 246822 48077 43503 19.48% 17.63% 150.3

21.7

2019 283532 53916 48472 19.02% 17.10% 167.5

19.4

2020 321865 59832 53468 18.59% 16.61% 184.8

17.6

Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17

SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE 140 120 100 80

Sensex MARKET INFO SENSEX NIFTY

Bajaj Auto

32609 10234

Pickup in executive class bikes and refreshments in existing product portfolio along with revival in export market to drive growth ahead:

BAL's domestic volume in Q2 FY18 grew by 3.8% Y-o-Y and 20.6% Q-o-Q majorly on the back of on going festive season and pickup in rural markets. However, The motorcycle sales of BAL grew marginally by 1% Y-o-Y in domestic markets and 5% Y-o-Y in exports. BAL's CT and Platina reported sales of 281,000 units which grew by 12% as compared to Q2FY17. Pulsar, Avenger and Dominar reported cumulative sales of 237,000 units in Q2FY18. Overall share in domestic market improved to 17% in Q2FY18. However market share of BAL in September 2017 stood at ~19.5%.

Going forward we expect BAL to report strong domestic numbers on back refreshed Pulsar segment . Company's other segment like V-15 and V-12 is gaining traction, which is also likely to aid growth going forward. Company's star product is "Dominar" is steadily improving its volumes. We expect company's star to improve its numbers from ~4,000/month bikes to ~7000/month bikes in coming months. Company's commercial vehicles volumes grew by 14% Yo-Y in domestic markets and 13% Y-o-Y in exports. Hence, we expect company's overall domestic volume growth of 9.2% CAGR between FY17 to FY20E.

On the export front the company is seeing signs of revival in demand from international arena mainly in nations like Nigeria. We believe revival in major markets of Africa will contribute to exponential growth in exports for the company. The company also plans to explore new markets in Australia and Thailand. The new Nascent market contribute about 16% of total volumes as compared to 10% in FY17. Hence, we have estimated export volume growth of 17.3% CAGR between FY17 to FY20E. We expect company's overall volume growth at 11.1% CAGR between FY17 to FY20E. We also believe company's shift in premium bikes is likely to aid realization, leading to revenue growth of 13.9% CAGR (INR 217,667 Mn in FY17 to INR 321,865 Mn by FY20E) growth for the same period.

SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)

Particulars Promoters FIIs DIIs Others Total

Sep 17

49.30 16.95 9.09 24.66

100

Jun 17

49.30 17.48 8.33 24.89

100

Mar 17

49.30 17.44 7.67 25.59 100

13.9%

9.4%

Revenue CAGR between FY 17 PAT CAGR between FY 17 and

and FY 19E

FY 19E

ANALYST

Ankit Merchant, ankit.merchant@, +91-22-6696 5533 Udit Gajiwala, udit.gajiwala@, +91-22-6696 5567

KRChoksey Research

is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ

+91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576



India Equity Institutional Research II

Bajaj Auto Ltd

Result Update ? Q2FY18 II 18th October, 2017

Page 3

Rising in-put cost to keep EBITDA margins under pressure : We expect BAL to report EBIDTA growth of ~10.6% CAGR between FY17 to FY20E. EBIDTA margins are likely to remain under pressure as the company expects rise in input cost on account of increase in cost of steel and aluminum. Also on back of up-turn in commodity cycle margins will continue to be under pressure. We believe BAL's plans to launch new variants of Avenger and "V" may lead to increase in selling and advertisement cost of the company. While BAL's bikes are more premium focused, increasing competition (TVS Akula, Suzuki Gixxer and Honda CBR) in the space is likely to keep price hikes in check. Hence we have assumed EBITDA margins to decline from 20% in FY17 to fall to 17.60% by FY20E., impacting the overall profitability. We maintain our view that EBITDA margins is likely to incur expenses on implementation of Combi- Brake System (CBS), Anti-lock Braking System (ABS) and preparation for BS-6 norms. We believe, CBS (INR ~2,000/unit), ABS (INR ~5,000 to ~INR 7,000/unit) as an additional cost is likely to be difficult for the company to pass-on as price hike may result in loss of market share.

Valuations & Views: We expect BAL to post healthy top-line growth of 13.9% CAGR between FY17 to FY20E, mainly driven by 11.1% CAGR volume growth. However, going forward we expect the EBITDA margins to remain under-pressure on account increase in commodity prices on back of rise in cost of steel and aluminum coupled with implementation of regulatory norms. BAL's portfolio of higher-end bikes are likely to register healthy growth. While company faces stiff competition in domestic market, we believe exports to revive gradually especially after stability being witnessed in Nigeria and other regional markets. While we expect the company to post a top-line growth of 13.9% CAGR, company's profit growth (~9.4% CAGR between FY17 to FY20E) are un-likely to improve anytime soon. Hence, we have assigned a multiple of 19x on FY20E EPS of INR 185 and we have valued the stock on (PE+DCF) basis by allocating a 50-50 weight. Our DCF value stands at INR 3,452/share and PE target stands at INR 3,511/ share to arrive at a target price of INR 3481.3/share, indicating 7% upside from CMP of INR 3,241.

50,00,000 45,00,000 40,00,000 35,00,000 30,00,000 25,00,000 20,00,000 15,00,000 10,00,000

5,00,000 -

Bajaj Auto 2-W Volumes

16,91,001 14,42,363 15,21,306 14,59,295 12,18,541

18,98,957 20,01,391 22,03,714 24,05,917 26,06,268

FY16

FY17

Exports

FY18E FY19E Domestic

FY20E

Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

57,157

Realization (INR/ Unit)

58,328

59,688

61,251

63,029

FY16

FY17

FY18E

FY19E

FY20E

30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00

21.06 16.68 FY16

Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

20.30 18.74

19.48 17.63

19.02 17.10

FY17

FY18E

FY19E

EBITDA Margin (%)

PAT Margin (%)

18.59 16.61

FY20E

ANALYST

Ankit Merchant, ankit.merchant@, +91-22-6696 5533 Udit Gajiwala, udit.gajiwala@, +91-22-6696 5567

KRChoksey Research

is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ

+91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576



India Equity Institutional Research II

Bajaj Auto Ltd

Result Update ? Q2FY18 II 18th October, 2017

Page 4

Q2FY18 Result Snapshot

Exhibit 1: Consolidated Result Update (INR Mn)

Particulars (Mn)

Q2FY18

Q1FY18

Q2FY17

Q-o-Q

Y-o-Y

No. Of. Vehicles Sold

1071510

888434

1031945

20.6%

3.8%

Gross Realization Gross Sales

60301

59976.4

57651.5

0.5%

4.6%

64613

57403

63271

12.6%

2.1%

Other operating income

1051

1139

1052

-7.7%

-0.1%

Gross Sales & Other Operating Income

65664

58542

64323

12.2%

2.1%

Total Expenditure (Increase) / Decrease In Stocks

52690 1065

49160 544

51379 -340

7.2% 95.8%

2.6% -413.5%

Purchase of Finished Goods

3260

3319

3406

-1.8%

-4.3%

Cost of Raw Materials

41167

34229

37505

20.3%

9.8%

Operating & Manufacturing Expenses Employee Cost

4723

4268

4493

10.7%

5.1%

2650

2727

2593

-2.8%

2.2%

Excise duty paid on sales

-135

4118

3778

-103.3%

-103.6%

Expenses Capitalized

-41

-46

-56

-11.2%

-27.9%

PBIDT (Excl OI) EBITDA Margins (%)

12975 19.8%

9382 16.0%

12945 20.1%

38.3% 373bps

0.2% -37bps

Depreciation

770

753

769.5

2.3%

0.0%

EBIT & Exceptional Item

12205

8630

12175

41.4%

0.2%

Exceptional Items Other Income

-

-150.5

-

-100.0%

-

2972

3235

3427.1

-8.1%

-13.3%

EBIT

15177

12015

15602

26.32%

-2.73%

Interest

5

2

6.8

95.8%

-30.9%

EBT

15172

12013

15595

26.3%

-2.7%

Tax

4055

3642

4378

11.3%

-7.4%

Net Profit from ordinary activity after tax

11117

8371

11218

32.8%

-0.9%

Share of profit after tax of associate

819

-

789.5

-

3.7%

Other Comprehensive Income (net of tax)

455

-

-

-

-

PAT SPouArcTe:MCoamrpgainny,(K%R)Choksey Research

12391 16.9%

8371 14.3%

12007 17.4%

48.0% 263bps

3.2% -51bps

EPS

41.20

28.90

41.50

42.6%

-0.7%

Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

Con-call Highlights: ?BAL witnessed strong growth in this festive season, since commencement of Navratri the retail volumes of the company increased by 46% as compared to the festive season last year. Growth was majorly on back of increase in demand for CT ES and Platina in (100CC to 150CC segment). Also exceptional performance of Pulsar NS which alone reported sales of about 40,000 units in Q2FY18 helped the company to gain 45% market share in sports segment.

?The company plans to launch new variant of Avenger by end of FY18 and introduce another brand in its mid-commuter segment. Currently BAL's Dominar is doing 2,000 to 2,500 units per month in domestic market which the company plans to expand upto 6,000 unit per month. In exports the company expects Dominar to achieve 7,000 to 7,500 units per month.

?In H1FY18 the motorcycle industry grew by 7.5% Y-o-Y and in H2 it is expected to grow by 8.5%. BAL's management is confident of out performing industry growth on back of increase in demand for Avenger, Pulsar NS, and KTM.

?In exports, Nigeria market has witnessed strong revival and the company plans to export 25,000 vehicles to Nigeria which had dropped down to 7,000 units. BAL looks to sell its products in new markets of Australia and Thailand, these new markets will contribute about 14% to 15% of company's total exports. BAL aims to export total 1.7 million units by FY18.

?The company has seen increase in demand in its 3-wheeler segment on back of permits given by Maharashtra and Karnataka Government. In this segment the company plans to do run rate of 30,000 vehicles per month by end of FY18. BAL plans to achieve growth of 11% Y-o-Y in its Commercial vehicle segment.

?The company plans to maintain its EBIDTA margins in double digit at ~20.5% to ~21%. Company plans to pass on the increase input costs resulting out of hike in prices of aluminum and steel.

ANALYST

Ankit Merchant, ankit.merchant@, +91-22-6696 5533 Udit Gajiwala, udit.gajiwala@, +91-22-6696 5567

KRChoksey Research

is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ

+91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576



India Equity Institutional Research II

Bajaj Auto Ltd

Exhibit 2: Income Statement INR Mn Total Sales Total Raw Materials COGS EBITDA Depreciation Interest & Finance charges Other Income Extraordinary items EBT (as reported) Tax PAT Min. Int. Share in gain/loss of assoc. RPAT APAT

Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

Exhibit 3 : Balance Sheet

INR Mn Equity Share Capital Reserves Net worth Total loans Deferred tax liability (Net) Capital Employed Gross Block Depreciation Net block CWIP Goodwill Investments Inventories Sundry debtors Cash and bank Loans and advances Other Current Assets Total Current assets Total Current liabilities Net Current assets Capital Deployed

Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

Result Update ? Q2FY18 II 18th October, 2017

FY16 226876 150569 150569 47,787

3072 5

8243 0

52953 17328 35625

0 2214 37840 37840

FY17A 217667 146242 146242 44,194 3073

14 12222

0 53329 15081 38248

0 2546 40795 40795

FY18E 246822 167494 167494 48,077

3239 25

13424 0

58238 17035 41203

0 2300 43503 43503

FY16 2894 127561 130454 2398 1883 134735 43903 23646 20257 269 5956 84449 7191 7179 8670 8716 2320 46259 29531 16728 134735

FY17A 2894 175672 178566 2546 3136 184248 46737 26719 20018 106

0 94270 7284 9533 3014

758 13597 94685 32128 62557 184248

FY18E 2894 192095 194988 3294 3652 201934 50864 29957 20906 155

0 102377 8378 10946 13915 1020 14493 114939 37353 77585 201934

FY19E 283532 193578 193578 53,916 3563

28 14911

0 65236 19064 46172

0 2300 48472 48472

FY19E 2894 209527 212421 4244 4289 220955 57836 33520 24316 221

0 112413 9785 12731 13800 1357 15586 126513 43813 82700 220955

Page 5

FY20E 321865 220966 220966 59,832 3869

32 16335

0 72266 21098 51168

0 2300 53468 53468

FY20E 2894 227997 230890 5344 4974 241209 64996 37389 27607 299

0 121718 11287 14629 16396 1750 16488 140555 50745 89810 241209

ANALYST

Ankit Merchant, ankit.merchant@, +91-22-6696 5533 Udit Gajiwala, udit.gajiwala@, +91-22-6696 5567

KRChoksey Research

is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ

+91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576



India Equity Institutional Research II

Result Update ? Q2FY18

Bajaj AutoLtd

Exhibit 4: Cash flow statement

INR Mn PAT Depriciation & Amortization Incr/(Decr) in Deferred Tax Liability (Incr)/Decr in Working Capital Cash Flow from Operating

FY16 32648 1809 467 36914 74816

II 18th October, 2017

FY17A 28119 3073 1254 -51485 -8911

FY18E 35625 3239

515 -4127 40829

FY19E 38248 3563

637 -5229 45143

Page 6

FY20E 41203 3869 685 -4514 51208

(Incr)/ Decr in Gross PP&E (Incr)/Decr In Work in Progress (Incr)/Decr In Investments (Incr)/Decr in Other Non-Current Assets Cash Flow from Investing

-2893 748 -52603 -1081 -55829

-2834 163 -9820 5735 -6757

-4127 -49 -8108 6387 -5897

-6973 -66 -10035 -395 -17469

-7160 -78 -9305 -471 -17013

(Decr)/Incr in Debt (Decr)/Inc in Other reserves Dividend Cash Flow from Financing

-120 3038 -19162 -16244

147 32984 -23121 10011

748 2300 -27080 -24032

950 2300 -31039 -27789

1100 2300 -34998 -31599

Incr/(Decr) in Balance Sheet Cash Cash at the Start of the Year Cash at the End of the Year

Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

Exhibit 5: Ratio Analysis

INR Mn Growth (%) Total Sales EBITDA APAT Profitability (%) EBITDA Margin Adj. Net Profit Margin ROIC ROE Per Share Data (Rs.) AEPS Reported CEPS BVPS Valuations (x) PER (x) PEG (x) P/BV (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/Net Sales (x) Dividend Yield (%) Turnover days Debtor Days Payable Days Gearing Ratio D/E

Source: Company, KRChoksey Research

ANALYST

Ankit Merchant, ankit.merchant@, +91-22-6696 5533 Udit Gajiwala, udit.gajiwala@, +91-22-6696 5567

2743 5927 8670

-5657 8670 3014

10901 3014 13915

-115 13915 13800

2596 13800 16396

FY16

FY17A

FY18E

FY19E

FY20E

5.0

-4.1

13.4

14.9

13.5

16.2

-7.5

8.8

12.1

11.0

25.1

7.8

6.6

11.4

10.3

21.1

20.3

19.5

19.0

18.6

16.7

18.7

17.6

17.1

16.6

24.4

18.8

16.7

17.2

17.5

31.3

26.4

23.3

23.8

24.1

130.8 135.3 450.8

141.0 142.8 617.1

150.3 155.6 673.8

167.5 174.1 734.1

184.8 192.7 797.9

18.4

20.0

21.7

19.4

17.6

0.7

2.6

3.3

1.7

1.7

5.3

4.6

4.8

4.4

4.1

14.5

18.5

19.7

17.5

15.8

3.1

3.8

3.9

3.4

3.0

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.7

3.1

11.8

14.3

15.4

15.5

15.7

90.1

76.9

75.7

76.5

78.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

KRChoksey Research

is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ

+91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576



India Equity Institutional Research II

Bajaj AutoLtd

Bajaj Auto Ltd Date

18-Oct-2017 24-July-2017 22-May-2017 1-Feb-2017 1-Nov-2016 17-Aug-2016

CMP (INR) 3241 2813 2959 2868 2841 2932

Result Update ? Q2FY18 II 18th October, 2017

TP (INR) 3481.3 3120 3262 3029 3185 3331

Recommendation Accumulate Accumulate Accumulate Accumulate Accumulate Accumulate

Our Rating Buy Accumulate Hold Reduce Sell

Page 7

Rating Legend Upside More than 15% 5% ? 15% 0 ? 5% -5% ? 0 Less than ? 5%

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We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KRCSSPL and its associates (Group Companies) by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

KRCSSPL prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analyst covers. The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by KRCSSPL and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of KRCSSPL. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, KRCSSPL is not under any obligation to update the information. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent KRCSSPL from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or KRCSSPL policies, in circumstances where KRCSSPL might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

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It is confirmed that, Ankit Merchant ( , BMS), research analyst and Udit Gaijiwala (), research associate, of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific brokerage service transactions.

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ANALYST

Ankit Merchant, ankit.merchant@, +91-22-6696 5533 Udit Gajiwala, udit.gajiwala@, +91-22-6696 5567

KRChoksey Research

is also available on Bloomberg KRCS Thomson Reuters, Factset and Capital IQ

+91-22-6696 5555 / +91-22-6691 9576



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