Socio-Economic Profile_iLembe_profile_2009



Ilembe District Socio-economic Profile2009Economic Analysis UnitKwaZulu-Natal Provincial Treasury1. IntroductionILembe district lies on the east coast of KwaZulu-Natal between the eThekwini Metro in the south and the Tugela River mouth in the north. At 3 260 km2, this is the smallest of the 10 provincial district municipalities. It consists of four local municipalities, namely, Mandeni, kwaDukuza, Ndwedwe and Maphumulo. Whilst iLembe is bordered by economic powerhouses to the north and south, the area is characterised by high levels of unemployment and poverty. Income levels are generally low with 27 percent of all households earning no income.The current global economic downturn also presents new economic and administrative challenges over and above the historical challenges municipalities are facing. It is against this background that the consideration of socio-economic factors by policy makers is even more essential for fully understanding most resource management issues and for making sound resource management decisions. Well designed socio-economic profile can provide vital information that policy makers need to allocate funds and improve the delivery of services. Service delivery has considerable influence on the quality of life. Hence the main purpose of this report is to provide an analysis of the recent socio-economic outlook of the iLembe district municipality. Apart from providing basis for rational decision making, this report can also assist the policy makers in effective and efficient budget allocation.2. Demographic ProfilesThe KwaZulu-Natal Province has both, a growing and maturing population, presenting opportunities and challenges to the province. According to Statistics South Africa mid-year estimates (2008), the KwaZulu Natal population was estimated at an average size of 10, 1 million people. Out of which 51.5 percent were female. The iLembe District municipality contributed 6 percent to the provincial population with a total estimated on average at 588,897 living in 149,456 households. The females accounted for 52.1 percent of the district total population and 5.6 percent to the KZN female population (Figure 2.1). Interestingly, on average there were more females in ages between 35 and 75 years (Figure 2.2). This means that females live longer than males.Figure 2.1: Total Population by DMs, average 2002-2008Source: Global Insight, 2009Figure 2.2 shows the distribution of the population in iLembe by gender and age. The largest proportion of the population in iLembe was the age group 15-64 years (59.5 percent) followed by age group 0-14 years (36,2 percent). The elderly population made the smallest portion of the total population. The dependency ratio of iLembe district was estimated on average at 71.7 percent, above provincial average (64.2 percent). This means that more people in iLembe are dependent on the people of working age (15-64)This poses immense developmental challenges in relation to future education, health, recreation and other social issues, particularly if the impact of HIV/AIDS is added to the equation. According to Global Insight (2009), 70, 946 of the total population were infected by HIV/AIDS in 2008 in iLembe district. This means that out of 149,456 households, 47.5 percent were affected by HIV/AIDS. Figure 2.2: ILembe population by gender and age, average 2002-2008Source: Global Insight, 20093. Grant Beneficiaries in KZN and iLembe District Municipality, 2008 & 2009The total number of grant beneficiaries in KZN increased by 7.9 percent from 4, 4 million in August 2008 to 4, 7 million in August 2009. Similarly, the total grants beneficiaries in iLembe increased by 7.0 percent from 270,189 in august 2008 to 289,111 in august 2009 (Figure 3.1).Figure 3.1: Grant Beneficiaries in KZN and iLembe district between 2008 & 2009Source: KZN SASSAThe largest beneficiaries come from child support grant and old age grant. This is indicative of a society that is highly dependent on taxes from the working age population. Figure 3.2 shows the beneficiaries growth per grant type year on year. It reveals that the fastest growth grant was the grant in aid ( GIA) in all the pay points in iLembe except, Mandini where care dependency grant was the fastest.Figure 3.2: ILembe Beneficiaries growth per grant type y-o-y (Aug 08 to Aug 09)Source: KZN SASSA4. Economic Outlook4.1Gross domestic product per municipality (GDP-M)Between 2002 and 2008, the GDPR for KwaZulu-Natal was estimated at an annual average of R184,8bn. There was significant growth of 29.9 percent from R162bn in 2002 to R210,4bn in 2007. Ilembe was the fifth largest contributor to the provincial GDPR at an annual average of 3.36 percent, after eThekwini (64.85 percent), Uthungulu (9.25 percent), uMgungundlovu(8.43), Ugu (3.69 percent) and Amajuba(3.52 percent. The least contributor was Umzinyathi at 0.78 percent (Figure 4.1). Figure 4.1: Districts contribution to KwaZulu-Natal GDPR, average 2002-2008Source: Global Insight, 2009Figure 4.2 shows iLembe’s GDP-M by economic sector between 2002 and 2008. During this period the economy of the district grew by an annual average of 5.8 percent. Manufacturing, Agriculture and Community Services sectors were the main economic drivers in this district. These three sectors contributed respective annual averages of 35.5 percent, 16.8 percent and 16.5 percent to the district’s GDPM between 2002 and 2008. However, construction was the fastest growing sector at an annual average of 9.7 percent. Mining was the least growing sector at –0.8 percent. Figure 4.2: ILembe GDP-M by sectors: 2002-2008Source: Global Insight, 20095. Unemployment 5.1 Unemployment by districtThroughout the period, formal employment played the most significant role in the province, ranging between 60 percent and 80 percent of districts’ total employment (Figure 5.1). ILembe’s contribution in this regard was among the relatively lower levels at 68.2 percent, lower even than the provincial average.The employment in the district was dominated by the Agriculture, Manufacturing and Community Services sectors (Figure 5.4). Figure 5.1: Total employment by district, average 2002-2008Source: Global Insight, 2009Average unemployment rate (official definition) of women between 2002 and 2007 was 27.5% while the province’s average unemployment rate of women during the same period was 28.2%.Figure 5.2: Women unemployment rate for both iLembe and KZN, between 2002 and 2007Source: Global Insight, 20095.2 Employment by economic sector Employment opportunities available in Ilembe varied from sector to sector. Agriculture (22 percent), Manufacturing (22 percent), and Trade (19 percent) had the highest number of employees. Mining and Electricity sectors employed the least number of people (0 percent) (Figure 5.4).Figure 5.4: ILembe total employment by economic sector (%), average 2002-2008Source: Global Insight, 20096 Development Figure 6.1 shows that the proportion of people living in poverty in this district is significantly high, but has been slowly decreasing since 2005. Ndwedwe and Maphumulo local municipalities had the highest poverty rates in the district at 99.1 percent and 96.7 percent respectively on average between 2002 and 2008. Mandeni and KwaDukuza had lower poverty rates of 53.3 percent and 30.4 percent respectively.Figure 6.1: Urbanisation rate, poverty rate, HDI and Gini coefficient in iLembe, 2002-2008Source: Global Insight, 2009The high prevalence of poverty in this district has undoubtedly contributed to the stagnant HDI in the district. This indicator has barely improved from 0.46 in 2006 to 0.45 in 2007 and 2008.The Gini coefficient, which measures the income gap between households, has been fairly stable at an average of 0.59 showing very little variance over the 7 year period under review. As salt in a wound, the increasing year-on-year Gini coefficient says that the gap has actually been growing wider.The Ilembe district is still predominantly rural, with an average urbanization rate of only 25 percent between 2002 and 2008. Looking at the above-mentioned indicators one could conclude that this district is in dire need of government initiatives to attempt to pull it out of its poverty-stricken state.Figure 6.2: HIV prevalence rates for iLembe and KZN, 2002-2008Source: Global Insight, 2009The HIV prevalence rates in the Ilembe district are more or less on par with those of KwaZulu-Natal (Figure 6.2). It is comforting to see that the prevalence rates in Ilembe are now below the provincial average, whereas they were higher than the provincial average in 2002. This indicates that the government initiatives particularly by the Department of Health are succeeding in encouraging safe sex practices among the people of this district.Figure 6.3 is an illustration of the levels of schooling of the Ilembe population. When considering the segment of the population which is15 year of age and above, the largest segment (23.7 percent) has schooling up to grade 5-7. Figure 6.3: Levels of literacy in iLembe and KZN, 2002-2008Source: Global Insight, 2009The second largest segment (19.6 percent) has no schooling whatsoever, 16.2 percent has completed metric, and only 0.3 percent has completed a postgraduate degree.7. Income and ExpenditureThe average disposable income of the district between 2002 and 2008 is 4.4% of the province. The income categories where people of the district were mostly falling in, was the category between R 6000 to R54 000 per annum of which most of the people earn between R18 000 - R30 000 per annum. The average rate of increase in income between 2002 and 2008 was estimated at 1.1%. Income increase was below the average inflation rate of the province which was 6.8% during the same period (2002 – 2008). Majority of iLembe district people earn between R1 500 - R2 500 per month. Figure 7.1 shows the relationship between the household income and household consumption expenditure between 2002 and 2008. It reveals that household income for the district declined faster than the provincial household income. This was followed by a drastically decline in consumption expenditure. Figure 7.1: Household income and Household expenditure, 2002-2008Source: Global Insight, 2009Income distribution within the municipality was more skewed than the district average (Figure 7.2).Figure 7.2: Income distribution, average 2002-2008Source: Global Insight, 20098. Land cover and useIn 2006, KwaZulu-Natal’s land size was estimated at 93,378 km2; approximately 8.0 percent of the South African land. iLembe’s share of the KwaZulu-Natal soil was only about 4.0 percent. However, good news is that the district had a satisfactorily large portion of its land used for permanent or temporary cultivation (nearly 50.0 percent), with the permanently cultivated area actually leading the other uses (Figure 8.1). This is encouraging and agriculture in this district should be continuously supported. Figure 8.1: iLembe land use, 2008Source: Global Insight, 2009 ................
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