World Bank Document

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SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS

DISCUSSION PAPER

No. 1930 | MAY 2019

Social Protection in an Era of

Increasing Uncertainty and Disruption: Social Risk Management 2.0

Steen Lau Jorgensen and Paul B. Siegel

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Project 54906

Abstract

This paper updates the Social Risk Management (SRM) conceptual framework; the foundation of the World Bank's first Social Protection Sector Strategy. SRM 2.0 addresses the increasingly risky and uncertain world; with opportunities and outcomes driven by possible disruptions from technology, markets, climate change, etc. SRM 2.0 is a spatial assets and livelihoods approach to household well-being featuring a risk chain covering all households across the lifecycle and for both positive and negative events. Key findings: Location and context are critical for household choices; assets are key to sustainable resilience to poverty, new assets and livelihoods need to be considered for the 21st century, and resilience and vulnerability to poverty are two sides of the same coin. Operationally, SRM 2.0 points to the need for a greater focus on asset and livelihood building programs in addition to traditional poverty alleviation and risk sharing programs, better integration between rights-based and risk-based approaches, more inclusive targeting, and consideration of global social protection.

JEL Codes:

I3 Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty, J03 Labor Economics Policies, K38 Human Rights Law Gender Law, O15 Human Resources Human Development Income Distribution Migration

Keywords:

Disruption, social risk management, social protection, social contract, social guarantee, assetbased approach, risk chain, no-regrets approach, livelihoods framework, resilience framework, vulnerability to poverty, resilience to poverty, human vulnerability, development resilience, risk sharing, planned coping, safety nets, Graduation Model, productive economic inclusion, adaptive social protection, productive safety nets, cash and caring, human rights, social justice, global risk pool, global finance and insurance, global risk management, global social contract, global social justice.

by

Steen Lau Jorgensen

Director, Social Protection and Jobs (SP&J) Global Practice, World Bank

sjorgensen@

steen.lau.jorgensen@

and

Paul B. Siegel

Consultant, Social Protection and Jobs (SP&J) Global Practice, World Bank

psiegel@ pbs99pbs@

Contents

FOREWORD .............................................................................................................................. V ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................ VIII ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................ IX EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................... XI CHAPTER I: A CHANGING WORLD .......................................................................................... 1

I.A Global Trends in Poverty ...................................................................................................................1 I.C The Future of Work ...........................................................................................................................6 I.D Rediscovering the Social Contract.....................................................................................................7

CHAPTER II: SOCIAL PROTECTION IS CHANGING.................................................................. 10

II.A Growth of SP Interventions ............................................................................................................10 II.B Increasingly Diverse SP Programs ..................................................................................................12 II.C Global Initiatives for SP ..................................................................................................................19 II.D Definition of SP ..............................................................................................................................21 II.E Social Policy and SP ........................................................................................................................25

CHAPTER III: INTRODUCTION TO SRM ................................................................................. 27

III.A Background and Definitions..........................................................................................................27 III.B SRM Instruments and HH Decision Making ..................................................................................29 III.C Critiques of SRM and Definition of SRM 2.0..................................................................................30 III.D Basic Definitions: Poverty, Vulnerability and Resilience to Poverty..............................................32 III.E Typology of 4 Household Groups and Income/Asset Poverty........................................................33 III.F Vulnerability and Resilience to Poverty .........................................................................................36

CHAPTER IV: SRM CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK SPATIAL ASSETS & LIVELIHOODS APPROACH TO HH WELL-BEING, AND THE RISK CHAIN ........................................................................................... 41

IV.A INTRODUCTION: SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS, ASSET-BASED, AND RESILIENCE APPROACHES ..................................41 IV.B SPATIAL ASSETS & LIVELIHOODS APPROACH TO HH WELL-BEING ....................................................................42

Location-Context ..................................................................................................................................44 Hazard/Risk Profile...............................................................................................................................46 Household Livelihood Assets ................................................................................................................49

Intangible Household Assets: .............................................................................................................................50 Tangible Household Assets: ................................................................................................................................51 Household Livelihood Activities............................................................................................................56 IV.C RISK CHAIN FOR SRM 2.0........................................................................................................................57

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