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7. Risk AssessmentAll Components of this Risk Assessment were developed using the best available data in the Buffalo Trace Region. During the process of Hazard Identification, Buffalo Trace staff used GIS resources to identify hazards that affect the Buffalo Trace Region. Buffalo Trace staff identified hazards and the mitigation committees reviewed and discussed the information. In the identification process hazards were evaluated through public participation in the county sub-committee meetings. Some information regarding hazards and their affects were created in addition to data collected by the Buffalo Trace staff. The county sub-committees used FEMA Publication G-318, Mitigation Planning Workshop for Preparing Local Plan. Committee members researched local records of the Emergency Management office, local newspapers, historical knowledge of sub-committee participants, local officials and community members, as well as information from the GIS department of the Buffalo Trace Area Development District.Identifying HazardsThe Buffalo Trace Area is vulnerable to a wide variety of natural hazards that threaten life and property. Through data driven criteria from the University of Louisville Center for Hazard Research and Policy Development the hazards listed below are hazards that affect the region and are all high to moderate risk in nature. The Regional Committee feels that all the hazards identified are considered to be equally severe. This table also identifies the section of the plan where the hazard profile is located.The Buffalo Trace Regional Mitigation Committee identified the following Hazards based on the Historical Evidence gathered from the Kentucky State Climatology Center, the National Climatic Data Center, FEMA’s Hazard Mapping website, and the Kentucky Geological Survey. The Local Mitigation Sub-Committees in each county collected information from the local level as well as from Public Input through open public meetings. Buffalo Trace Staff gathered GIS information and historical data to provide to the local committees. As specifically noted in subsequent sections of the risk assessment, there are some limitations to best available GIS and historical data pertaining to hazards. However, the local sub-committees had a wide range of local officials and citizens that identified what hazards affected the region based on past experiences. Information collected throughout the planning process from public input was an invaluable resource of information.Through this process, there were hazards that were determined to not significantly affect the Buffalo Trace Region, and therefore are not discussed further in the plan. This determination does not preclude the plan from including these hazards in future updates of the plan as new information is discovered concerning these types of Hazards. The Regional Mitigation Committee will include any new information on Hazard identification in future updates of this plan. HAZARDS THAT AFFECT THE BUFFALO TRACE REGIONHAZARDHOW IDENTIFIEDWHY IDENTIFIEDSECTION IN PLANFlooding/Flash FloodingReview of Past Disaster Damages from FEMAAffects the Region Frequently7.1Local Emergency Management Office RecordsGeographical Features Show Many Streams, RiversPublic InputMaps Show Many Flood-Prone AreasReview of FIRMsReview of Existing ReportsReview of Previous Project JurisdictionsTornadoesReview of Past Disaster Damages from FEMANumerous Past Events7.2Review of Hazard Maps from FEMA’s Website Shows that All Jurisdictions AffectedPublic InputLocal Records Identified EventsWind Zone Map of United StatesWind Zone Maps Identify Regions in Highest Wind Zone Area of 250+ mphSevere Thunderstorms,Wind,HailReview of Past Damages from FEMAMany Past Events in the Region7.3Planning Committee and Public InputWidespread – Affects ALL JurisdictionsNews ArticlesNOAA Information is SubstantialSevere Winter StormsReview Past Disaster Damages from FEMAMany Past Events in the Region7.4Planning Committee and Public InputVariety of Events including Snow and Ice StormsLocal Emergency Management RecordsLandslidesPublic Input from Local Officials Concerning Problems Caused to InfrastructureLocal Input Identified Many Areas that are Affected7.5Hazard Areas Identified by the Kentucky Geological SurveyHAZARDS THAT DO NOT AFFECT THE BUFFALO TRACE REGIONHAZARDHOW IDENTIFIEDWHY (NOT) IDENTIFIEDHurricanesReview of Past Disaster DamagesGeographical Location of Region Is Not CoastalLocal Emergency Management Office RecordsRegion is Affected Primarily from Thunderstorms that Are a Result of Storm Systems Generated from Hurricane SystemsPublic InputReview of Existing ReportsWildfiresWildfires Are Large Uncontrollable Fires that Burn in Arid and Dry ClimatesRegion is Affected by Grass/Brush Fires and Not WildfiresReview of Maps from Kentucky Division of Forestry on Fire Danger ClassNo Damages to Property or Life in Previous OccurrencesPublic InputNo Historical Events or Disasters in AreaReview of Past DamagesDrought,Heat WaveReview of Past DamagesNo Significant Historical EventsPublic InputNo Report of Damages from This Type of Event in Past Ten (10) YearsNews ArticlesEarthquakesReview of Past Disaster DamagesPGA Map Shows the Region as a PGA of 0.19Public InputAccording to FEMA Publication 386-2, Risk Areas <0.20 PGA Do Not Further Evaluation as Identifiable HazardNews ArticlesLocal Input Agrees that No Further Identification NecessaryLocal Emergency Management RecordsTsunamisTsunami Hazard MapsTsunamis Only Affect America’s West CoastVolcanoesResearch on VolcanoesNo Active Volcanoes in Buffalo Trace Region, according to Local InputFogLocal InputFog Does Not Directly Cause Damages to PropertyDams/LeveesLocal InputNo Historical DamagesHAZUS Stock InformationNo Identified Vulnerable AreasProfiling Hazard EventsThe following section provides a profile of each identified Hazard in the Buffalo Trace Region. This portion of the plan identifies the following information:A description of each identified hazard in the planning area and the location and extent that this hazard can affect the area.A historical background on each identified hazard in the planning region and the probability of future hazard events occurring.Maps of the locations and areas of the region affected by Hazard events.The following Hazard Profiles have been created using the best available data from a variety of resources, including but not limited to the National Climatic Data Center, Kentucky Office of Geographical Information, Kentucky Geological Survey, Kentucky State Climatology Center and the FEMA Hazard Mapping website. Buffalo Trace ADD staff also used the FEMA Local Mitigation planning How To series to guide the mitigation committees in the planning process. GIS hazard maps, damages history spreadsheets, and historical documentation were used by each committee to profile each event. Buffalo Trace ADD staff researched and provided this information to each of the committees for review. During the planning process, public input from the planning committees led to the creation of Profile Maps that document and illustrate where the Hazard prone areas are in each jurisdiction of the Buffalo Trace Region. Public input was an invaluable local resource in the planning process. Committee members attended meetings and discussed information gathered from the sources listed above. Committee members also discussed particular issues such as past events and significant occurrences that did not warrant a declared disaster and how those events impacted the community at that particular time with local officials and citizens during the process to gather local information.The goal of the Regional Mitigation Committee is that each update of this plan will capture new data, especially in the area of GIS information. The committee anticipates the need to collect data on repetitive loss structures, details of future flood events including location and extent, and track the frequency of future events. Creating GIS information from the data collected will be an invaluable resource but may be costly for the local jurisdictions to create. As funding is available to jurisdictions in the future, new data may be processed to enhance future updates of this plan. As new GIS data becomes available from outside resources, future updates of the plan will include this information where applicable and rmation regarding past disaster damages have been provided to the Buffalo Trace ADD staff, by the state mitigation office and included in the plan after review by the mitigation committees. At the time of creating this plan, Buffalo Trace ADD staff were using version MR3 of HAZUS MH, a GIS loss estimation model for Hazards. This version lacked information for the Buffalo Trace Region regarding critical facilities as well as the location, extent and magnitude of Flooding events. Local input was the best available during the drafting of this plan. The following charts and tables are a summary of past Declared Disasters as provided by FEMA for the Buffalo Trace Region. Throughout our plan, we will refer to the charts and tables as we profile our hazard events. This table is limited to providing information only related to declared disasters on the county level and does not list each jurisdiction.Buffalo Trace Region, Presidentially Declared DisastersDR #Declaration DateDisaster TypeCounties Declared for Public Assistance and Individual AssistanceCounties Declared for Public Assistance OnlyCounties Declared for Individual Assistance Only2263/27/1967Severe Storms, FloodingLewis002375/4/1968Tornadoes, Severe StormsBracken, Mason0056812/12/1978Severe Storms, FloodingFleming008212/24/1989Severe Storms, FloodingFleming008931/29/1991Severe Storms, Flooding?Lewis?10891/13/1996Blizzard0Bracken, Fleming, Lewis, Mason, Robertson011633/4/1997FloodingBracken, Fleming, Lewis, Mason, Robertson0012073/3/1998Severe Winter Storm?Fleming, Lewis, Robertson?13202/28/2000Flooding, Severe StormFleming, Lewis0Mason, Robertson13888/15/2001Severe Storm, Flooding 0 Lewis, Mason014074/4/2002Flooding, Severe StormFleming0Lewis14543/14/2003Severe Winter Ice and Snow, Heavy Rain, Flooding, TornadoesLewisBracken, Fleming, Mason, Robertson014716/3/2003Landslide, Severe Storm, Tornado, Flooding Fleming, Lewis0Mason14757/2/2003Flooding, Landslide, Severe Storm, TornadoLewis0015782/8/2005Severe Storms and Record Snow?Bracken0?017575/19/2008Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Mudslides, and LandslidesFleming and Lewis0?033021/28/2009Severe Winter StormMason001818?2/5/2009Severe Winter Storm and Flooding?Bracken, Fleming, Lewis, Mason, Robertson0019125/11/2010Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, and TornadoesFleming and Lewis??19257/23/2010Severe Storms, Flooding, and MudslidesLewis?Mason19765//04/2011Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding?Bracken, Fleming, Lewis, Mason and Robertson????????Source: Federal Emergency Management Agency, Federal Register??Limitation of Dataset: Limited to County Jurisdictions and not Cities.?7.1 FloodingDefinitionFlooding is the most frequent and costly natural hazard in the United States. As data and analyses in this and other components of the risk assessment will illustrate, flooding is the greatest problem and threat to the Buffalo Trace Region. Floods are the result of excessive precipitation, and are classified under two categories: flash floods, which are heavy localized precipitation in a short time period over a particular location and general flooding, which is caused by precipitation over a longer time period and over a given geographical area. The severity of a flooding event is determined by a combination of stream and river basin topography, precipitation and weather patterns, recent soil moisture conditions and the degree of vegetative clearing from the streams and rivers.Flash flooding events in the Buffalo Trace Region usually occur within minutes or hours of heavy amounts of rainfall. Most flash flooding is caused by slow-moving thunderstorms in a local area. Flash flooding occurs often along mountain streams, and is also common in urbanized areas where much of the ground is covered by impervious surfaces.General floods are long-term events and may last for several days. The primary types of general flooding are riverine, coastal, and urban flooding. The Buffalo Trace Region is affected mostly by Riverine flooding, which is the product of excessive precipitation levels and high water runoff volumes within the watershed of a stream or river. Coastal flooding is typically a result of storm surge, wind-driven waves, and heavy rainfall produced by hurricanes, tropical storms, nor’easters and other large coastal storms. This type of flooding is very uncommon given the regions geographical location. Urban flooding occurs where man-made development has obstructed the natural flow of water and/or decreased the ability of natural groundcover to absorb and retain surface water runoff. The Buffalo Trace region has several cities in which stormwater drainage has been placed in order to curb urban flooding. (Definitions were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center)Flooding of lands adjacent to rivers, streams and shorelines is natural and an inevitable occurrence that can be expected to take place based upon established recurrence intervals. The recurrence of a flood is defined as the average number of years expected between a flood event of a particular magnitude or an equal or larger flood. The magnitude of a flood increases as the recurrence rate increases.A "floodplain" is the lowland area adjacent to a river, lake or ocean. Floodplains are designated by the frequency of the flood that is large enough to cover them. For example, the 10-year floodplain will be covered by the 10-year flood and the 100-year floodplain by the 100-year flood.Flood frequencies, such as the "100-year flood," are determined by evaluating the size of all known floods for an area and determining how often floods of a particular size occur. Flood frequency is the chance of occurrence in a given year. For example, the 100-year flood has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year. The following Maps show the 100 year Floodplain Areas in the Buffalo Trace Region. The above overview map shows that all counties in the Buffalo Trace Region have floodplain maps and they all have been updated since the last plan. Although Fleming County had participated in the National Flood Insurance Program they never had been mapped for Special Flood Hazard Areas until this update cycle. The following table summarizes each jurisdictions participation in the National Flood Insurance Program and Community Rating System. The table also shows which communities have Special Flood Hazard Area Maps: National Flood Insurance Program Flood Hazard Maps(100 Year Floodplain Maps)Jurisdiction?MemberNFIPMemberCRSSpecial FloodHazard MapsBRACKEN COUNTYYESNOYESCity of Brooksville* NONONOCity of AugustaYESNOYESCity of Germantown* NONONOFLEMING COUNTYYESNOYESCity of FlemingsburgYESNOYESCity of Ewing* NONONOLEWIS COUNTYYESNOYESCity of VanceburgYESNOYESCity of Concord* NONONOMASON COUNTYYESNOYESCity of DoverYESNOYESCity of MaysvilleYESNOYESCity of Sardis* NONONOROBERTSON COUNTYYESNOYESCity of Mt. Olivet* NONONO????* According to the National Flood Insurance Program Community Status Book these non-participating communitieshave no identified Special Flood Hazard Areas.?????Federal Emergency Management AgencyCommunity Status Book ReportKENTUCKYCommunities Participating in the National Flood ProgramCIDCommunity NameCountyInit FHBMIdentified*Init FIRMIdentified*Curr EffMap Date*Reg-Emer Date*Tribal210022#Augusta, City ofBracken5/24/19749/16/19885/16/20139/16/1988No210021#Bracken County*Bracken6/10/197711/1/19975/16/201311/1/1997NoFoster is now part of Bracken County210167#Dover, City ofMason8/2/19745/15/19864/16/20135/15/1986No210335#Fleming County*Fleming5/20/20105/20/10(M)*2/5/1992No210068#Flemingsburg, City ofFleming6/7/19745/20/20105/20/10(M)*9/18/1985No210141#Lewis County*Lewis12/20/19742/19/19874/16/20132/19/1987No210259#Mason County*Mason 12/31/197611/1/19974/16/201311/1/1997No210168#Maysville, City ofMason2/1/19746/30/19764/16/20136/30/1976No210200#Robertson County*Robertson3/25/197711/1/200805/20/10(M)*11/1/2008No210142#Vanceburg, City ofLewis2/1/19742/19/19874/16/20132/19/1987No* Init FHBM Identified - Initial Flood Hazard Boundary Map identified* Init FIRM Identified - Initial Flood Insurance Rate Map Identified* Curr Eff Map Date - Current Effective Flood Insurance Rate Map Date* Reg-Emer Date - Regular Program or Emergency Program* (M) - Minimally flood proneThe Following Maps show the Special Flood Hazard Areas in each jurisdiction. All Floodplain Maps were created using the latest Q3 digital maps from FEMA’s Map Data Center. Buffalo Trace Staff used the FEMA Q3 maps and overlaid these maps onto the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet Highway Centerlines to show the areas of the County Affected. County and City Limits as defined on the maps were overlaid using the current files from the Kentucky Infrastructure Authority.Plan update – Fleming County Flood Mapping has been completed since the last 5 year update. This plan includes new, first time available flood maps for Fleming County. All maps have been in this section have been updated as well. ................
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