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FRONTIERS, DIALOGUE, AND DISCERNMENT IN ASIAN CONTEXTS

International Theological Symposium, Loyola School of Theology, 16-17 March 2017

Leong Hall Auditorium and Jaime Cardinal Sin Center, Ateneo de Manila University Campus

Part II. Places: Borders and Bridges

Secular Perspective: Dr. FILOMENO AGUILAR

(Unofficial) Minutes

Title of the Talk: “Demography, Democracy, Modernity”

• I was hesitant to take on the talk because I am not a political scientist. The task of dealing with "all of Asia" might be too much. I relied on secular sources, would deal with reliable quantitative data.

I. Demography: Demographic Transition in Asia

• I avoided demography as a course in Cornell. Did not look highly of demography but my first job was in demography.

• Why focus on population dynamics? Population changes…

a. Are caused by fundamental societal changes

b. Mirror changing individual aspirations and values

c. Link macro and micro levels

• We are in a period of growing modernity all over Asia

 

Demographic Transition Theory: A general model that describes population dynamics as societies move through historical processes that transform conditions of high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality.

• Stages in demographic transition: relationship between mortality and fertility and population growth.

• What is happening in Asia: we are in the natural increase portion of demographic transition.

• Population in Asia is expected to stop growing by 2050. This is evident in China, Thailand.

• World Population Distribution: Asia by 2050, it would have reverted back to 1950 figure, (From 55% to 54%). Africa would have 39% in 2100 (from 9% in 1950), while Asia would have only 43%. If you are in the Kingdom of God, where do you 'invest'?

• 1950-2050: Large families & short lifespan to small families & long lifespan.

• UN Population Estimates: South Central Asia - 42.4%, East Asia - 37.8%, Southeast Asia - 14.3%, West Asia 5.6%.

• Life Expectancy at Birth in Asia: 1950 to 2005, people are living much longer. Japan has longest lifespan in the whole world at 83. Vietnam follows wealthy Singapore and Brunei in increasing their life expectancy.

• Total Fertility Rate has been declining in the region: 5.8 in the 1950's 5.8 to 2.1 in 2014. But 2.1 is the "replacement rate", i.e. every family must have 2.1 children to replace those who die.

• China, even with One Child Policy, and Taiwan are both on the same trend line in terms in decline in fertility.

• Causal Factors:

a. Preventive health, medical treatment

b. Socioeconomic development

c. A big factor is mass education where one is introduced to basic concepts in health.

d. Formal sector employment

e. Effective family planning program

f. Postponement of marriage

 

Second Demographic Transition:

a. Sub-replacement fertility linked to postponement of marriage and childbearing

b. Ages at marriage reflect growing prominence of free partner choice and female autonomy

c. Premarital cohabitation becomes more common and widely acceptable

• There is a second demographic transition: the fertility rate is below replacement level (sub-replacement fertility). This is linked to postponement of marriage and childbearing. By delaying age of marriage, fertility declines. This reflects certain cultural changes: free partner choice and female autonomy.

• Percentage of women never to marry is also on the way up. Inquirer article: 58% of Filipino women delay marriage.

• The second demographic transition: lower fertility rate, delay in age of marrying, acceptance of cohabitation. In the late 1950's of those who cohabited, 64% got married. In the 1980s, only 44% got married.

• "East Asian Marriage Revolution": Emphasis on individual autonomy and self-actualization. Societies who used to emphasize the collective now emphasize individual autonomy and self-actualization.

• Marriage is now highly individualized, not constrained anymore by institutions (Church, schools, etc.) and social norms revealing a change in value orientation. Ex. Need for self-expression through social media.

• Sociocultural correlates:

a. “Higher-order” needs; self-expression

b. Grassroots democracy, participation, pluralism.

c. Social idealism is seen: revolutions in Taiwan, Hongkong, South Korea where leaders and participants come from families where there are no siblings. There are different values learned from families with one child compared to that with many children.

d. Value orientation of post-materialism is evident.

Other Demographic Trends:

• Aging population, though not as bad as in Europe

• Increased urbanization: Delhi, Beijing, Tokyo, etc. In Asia, urbanization is still below 50% though, compared to 70% in Europe.

• Internal migration (international migration lacks data).

• Age of individual mobility. Motorcycles are all over the place. Increasing proportions of the population are in their individual 'world' of their vehicles.

• International Labor Migration in SEA. There is a structural need for migrant labor. But for many it is for upward social mobility.

• 64% of victims of trafficking had been trafficked for forced labor vis-à-vis 26% for sexual exploitation.

• Demographics of Religion: Hindu as top religious group in Asia, followed by Muslims. By 2050 Asia will be majority Muslim.

• Muslims have very high fertility rate, very low for Buddhist.

• Religious discrimination: There is an increasing incidence of discrimination against other minority religions especially in Muslim and Buddhist majority countries. Muslim majority countries in SEA are more regulated than the Middle East.

• Highly diverse: among the most free and most unfree states in the world. The Christians are as free as those in the West. The Muslims in the region are as ‘unfree’ as those in Saudi and Iran.

II. Democracy: Democratic consolidation?

• The number of countries that are not substantially free is a majority. In Asia Pacific, only around 20% in countries are free. In terms of population 38% are free, 22% are partially free40% are unfree. In Southeast Asia: Freedom House Rating in 2005, only Indonesia is classified as free. By 2016, Indonesia classified as only partially free.

• Interestingly, people in SEA say they live in a democracy regardless of Freedom House rating. Asia Barometer Survey: Majority support a democratic system but also do not reject rule by military, powerful leaders, experts (technocracy), etc.

• So what does “democracy” really mean in Southeast Asia.

• Accountability and Responsiveness. Though corruption is everywhere, results of elections show that people do not really care.

• Attitudes towards economic development and democracy. What is more important, the economy or democracy? People say that we live in a democracy but they say the economy is more important. This shows an instrumentalist view of democracy.

• Democratic legitimacy depends on whether effective governance delivers stability and decent living standards. Democratic understood in terms of governance outputs, such as freedom from fear and freedom from want—the capacity to be free and lead a dignified life.

• Requires more people to embrace democracy as “the only game in town”.

III. Modernity: Coping with Modernity

• Trend towards worsening inequality in Asia, especially in China, Indonesia, Taiwan, Hong Kong.

• Poverty in Asia is also worsening. In terms of population, poverty has improved since 1990 figures with improvement of middle class.

• Drivers of Inequality:

a. Lower Income Inequality: Human capital, trade openness, government social spending, progressive taxation, democratic accountability, higher employment in industry

b. Higher Income Inequality: financial openness, financial sector deepening, inflation, technology, higher employment in services

• Suicide rates are hardly discussed. 1 million in the world per year, 60% in Asia. It receives little attention in Asia because of data availability and data quality challenges.

• We can expect the problem to worsen in the next two decades. Gender gap is narrowing in Asia: more men are increasingly taking their lives. High rates among the elderly. Higher rural rates in India, Sri Lanka, Japan, Taiwan, China.

• Risk factors:

a. Reports of depression and psychiatric disorders lower than in the West

b. Acute life stresses, e.g. job loss, gambling, are precipitants of suicide among men

c. Financial problems: greater impact in Asia than in the West

d. China: young rural women had highest rate of pesticide ingestion, lowest rate of mental illness, and highest rate of acute events

e. India: 98.7% of women suicide due to dowry dispute

• Many are falling through the cracks. From collective orientation to a more materialistic, individualistic orientation and even post-materialistic orientation especially in highly developed areas.

 

➢ Many other ways to think about Asia. Young people are growing in a very different environment. They want to their voices to be heard, to express their feelings.

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