Global Advisor Predictions

[Pages:30]Global Advisor

Predictions

January 2019

Global Advisor Predictions 2019 | January 2019

1

Global Advisor 2019 Predictions

Average global temperatures will increase

29%

49%

7

9% 5%

World affairs

Four in five think that average global temperatures will increase, while over a third expect a crash in global stock markets. People think both are more likely in 2019 than they thought they were going into 2018.

Major stock markets around the world will crash

7%

30%

20

30%

President Trump will be impeached

8%

24%

19

28%

A major terrorist attack will take place in [COUNTRY]

6%

26%

18

27%

14% 21% 22%

Global Advisor Predictions 2019 | January 2019

Very likely/fairly likely

Fairly unlikely/very unlikely

Base: 21,141 adults aged 16-64 across Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States.

Ipsos MORI Global Advisor 2

Global Advisor 2019 Predictions

Q. For each of the following, please tell me how likely or unlikely you think they are to happen...

Average global temperatures will increase

Most around the world think average global temperatures will increase in 2019, and this is seen as more likely than in 2018 ? the United States is the most skeptical for the second year running.

Global Advisor Predictions 2019 | January 2019

Country

Likely

Unlikely % likely in 2018

Total Malaysia

Chile Turkey Belgium South Korea Netherlands Hungary

Peru Colombia South Africa

China France Sweden Czech Republic Germany

India Great Britain

Canada Mexico

Italy Japan Brazil Argentina Poland Spain Russia Serbia Australia Israel Saudi Arabia United States

78%

14%

71%

88%

7%

81%

88% 9%

81%

86%

10%

82%

84% 13%

59%

84%

12%

76%

84%

12%

-

83%

11%

76%

83%

10%

74%

82%

12%

82%

82%

13%

76%

81%

12%

79%

81%

10%

67%

80%

13%

77%

80%

13%

-

79%

14%

69%

79% 18%

68%

78%

13%

66%

78%

14%

70%

78%

16%

78%

77%

14%

70%

76%

14%

59%

76%

17%

73%

75%

15%

74%

75%

15%

58%

74%

13%

72%

73%

18%

56%

73%

17%

87%

72%

18%

64%

70%

18%

-

66%

25%

58%

63%

24%

56%

Base: 21,141 adults aged 16-64 across Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States.

Ipsos MORI Global Advisor

3

Global Advisor 2019 Predictions

Q. For each of the following, please tell me how likely or unlikely you think they are to happen...

Major stock markets around the world will crash

Around two in five think a major stock market crash is likely, which is up nine points since last year. Economic pessimism in Great Britain and Russia has nearly doubled when compared to 2017.

Global Advisor Predictions 2019 | January 2019

Country

Likely

Unlikely % likely in 2018

Total Malaysia Saudi Arabia

Russia Great Britain

Sweden Poland

Japan Australia

Turkey Netherlands

Belgium United States

France South Africa

Canada India

Germany Brazil Israel

Czech Republic Spain Italy

Colombia Mexico China

Argentina Chile Peru

Serbia South Korea

Hungary

37%

44%

64%

24%

48%

40%

47%

39%

47%

32%

46%

35%

45%

37%

44%

32%

42%

40%

42%

44%

41%

40%

40%

39%

38%

46%

36%

40%

35%

49%

33%

45%

33%

51%

33%

37%

33%

51%

32%

42%

32%

52%

31%

36%

31%

43%

30%

50%

30%

50%

28%

59%

28%

46%

27%

52%

26%

53%

26%

40%

26%

63%

24%

55%

Base: 21,141 adults aged 16-64 across Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States.

28% 51% 39% 26% 25% 29% 33% 20% 28% 33%

27% 25% 24% 34% 24% 39% 30% 33%

21% 22% 30% 30% 23% 21% 24% 20% 29% 16% 16%

Ipsos MORI Global Advisor

4

Global Advisor 2019 Predictions

Q. For each of the following, please tell me how likely or unlikely you think they are to happen...

President Trump will be impeached

Attitudes remain divided on President Trump, but three in five Americans think it's unlikely their President will be impeached. In the midst of a trade war, a majority in China think his impeachment is likely.

Global Advisor Predictions 2019 | January 2019

Country

Likely

Unlikely % likely in 2018

Total China Turkey Czech Republic Malaysia

Italy Australia Saudi Arabia

Japan Canada Great Britain

Russia Germany Netherlands

India Belgium South Africa Sweden

Spain United States

Israel Chile Brazil Mexico South Korea Serbia France Peru Hungary Colombia Argentina Poland

32%

50%

50%

38%

50%

28%

47%

38%

44%

36%

42%

36%

42%

37%

42%

37%

41%

37%

41%

43%

39%

39%

39%

40%

38%

47%

36%

51%

36%

36%

33%

54%

33%

45%

31%

51%

29%

50%

27%

60%

25%

55%

25%

57%

24%

61%

24%

61%

22%

65%

21%

52%

20%

63%

19%

58%

19%

62%

18%

63%

13%

63%

12%

67%

Base: 21,141 adults aged 16-64 across Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States.

35% 38% 55%

40% 38% 41% 40% 29% 51% 43% 31% 41%

37% 41% 38% 31% 36% 33%

39% 29% 38% 25% 29% 30% 28% 24% 26% 23% 20%

Ipsos MORI Global Advisor

5

Global Advisor 2019 Predictions

Q. For each of the following, please tell me how likely or unlikely you think they are to happen...

A major terrorist attack will be carried out in [INSERT COUNTRY]

Western Europe, Israel and Russia are the most concerned about a terrorist attack on home soil. Concern in the US has dropped considerably over the past year.

Global Advisor Predictions 2019 | January 2019

Country

Likely

Unlikely % likely in 2018

Total

32%

49%

31%

France

63%

19%

53%

Great Britain

57%

26%

65%

Israel

52%

30%

-

Russia

52%

30%

21%

Sweden

49%

35%

44%

Belgium

48%

35%

43%

Turkey

47%

36%

60%

Germany

42%

34%

51%

Netherlands

42%

45%

-

Spain

42%

25%

41%

Australia

42%

43%

40%

United States

38%

43%

51%

Canada

29%

53%

32%

Colombia

28%

47%

23%

India

27%

50%

39%

Italy

26%

45%

32%

Malaysia

26%

62%

27%

South Africa

26%

59%

21%

Czech Republic

25%

63%

-

Japan

23%

61%

18%

Chile

22%

58%

14%

Brazil

20%

65%

21%

China

18%

74%

15%

Poland

17%

69%

20%

Peru

15%

61%

20%

Mexico

15%

63%

18%

South Korea

14%

75%

16%

Argentina

13%

62%

13%

Serbia

13%

68%

11%

Hungary 10%

75%

16%

Base: 21,141 adults aged 16-64 across Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States.

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Global Advisor 2019 Predictions

Technology

Around the world four in five think that people will spend more time online than watching TV in 2019, while two in five expect doctors to regularly use artificial intelligence to help decide on treatment.

Despite half the global population worried about they personal data being leaked on the internet, only around a quarter say they will reduce their use of social media.

Global Advisor Predictions 2019 | January 2019

People around the world will spend more time online than watching TV

33%

47%

6 9% 4%

My personal data will be leaked on the internet

13%

37%

14

22%

14%

Doctors in [COUNTRY] will regularly use artificial intelligence to decide on treatment for their patients

7%

31%

13

27%

21%

I will use social media less

10%

18%

9

30%

29%

Very likely/fairly likely

Fairly unlikely/very unlikely

Base: 21,141 adults aged 16-64 across Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States.

Ipsos MORI Global Advisor 7

Global Advisor 2019 Predictions

Q. For each of the following, please tell me how likely or unlikely you think they are to happen...

People around the world will spend more time online than watching TV

A clear majority in all countries surveyed think it is likely that people will spend more time online than watching TV in 2019.

Global Advisor Predictions 2019 | January 2019

Country

Likely

Unlikely

Total Turkey Russia Malaysia Hungary Mexico Serbia Colombia Czech Republic South Africa Poland

Chile Peru China Netherlands United States South Korea India Canada Israel Australia Sweden Argentina Brazil Great Britain Japan Italy Germany France Belgium Saudi Arabia Spain

80%

14%

92% 6%

89% 8%

89% 9%

86%

10%

86% 11%

85%

7%

85%

12%

84%

11%

84% 13%

84%

9%

83%

11%

82% 14%

82%

14%

82%

12%

81%

13%

80%

15%

80%

16%

80%

12%

80%

13%

80%

13%

78%

14%

78%

16%

78%

16%

76%

15%

76%

16%

74%

16%

74%

15%

73%

16%

72%

20%

71%

23%

70%

17%

Base: 21,141 adults aged 16-64 across Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States.

Ipsos MORI Global Advisor

8

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