Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.

October 5, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Margin Debt

3-6

October 5, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 1.

900

840 MARGIN DEBT & WILSHIRE 5000

780

Margin Debt

Aug 50 10/4

720

Margin Debt*

40

660

(billion dollars) (911.5)

600

Wilshire 5000

540

Market Cap

30

(trillions) (44.7)

480

420

360

20

300

240

180

10

120

60



0

0

79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Beginning in 1997 data are debit balances in customers' securities margin accounts. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 2.

3.0

3.0

MARGIN DEBT*

(as a percent of Wilshire 5000)

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.0

Aug

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2



1.0

1.0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Page 3 / October 5, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 3.

400

MARGIN DEBT* 350 (yearly change, billion dollars)

300

250

Margin Debt

400 350 300 Aug 250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50

50

0

0

-50

-50

-100

-100

-150

-150



-200

-200

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Figure 4.

100

100

MARGIN DEBT* (yearly percent change)

50

50

Aug

0

0



-50

-50

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.

Page 4 / October 5, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 5.

1000

MARGIN DEBT & S&P 500

Margin Debt

800

Margin Debt*

(billion dollars) (911.5)

S&P 500 Market Cap (37.0)

600

400

200

40 A9u/2g9

30

20

10



0

0

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Standard & Poor's.

Figure 6.

4

4

MARGIN DEBT (as a percent of S&P 500 market cap)

3

3

Aug

2

2



1

1

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Standard & Poor's.

Page 5 / October 5, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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