Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500/400/600 Relative Fundamentals
Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500/400/600
Relative Fundamentals
Yardeni Research, Inc.
December 6, 2023
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Please visit our sites at blog.
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
S&P 500/400/600: Price Indexes
3
S&P 500/400/600: Forward Revenues
4
S&P 500/400/600: Forward Earnings
5
S&P 500/400/600: Forward P/E
6
S&P 500/400/600: Forward P/Sales
7
S&P 500/400/600: Forward Profit Margin
8
S&P 500/400/600: Forward PEG Ratio
9
S&P 500/400/600: LTEG and STEG
10
S&P 500/400/600: Y/Y % Change Relative P/E and Price
11
S&P 500/400/600: Y/Y % Change Relative Fwd EPS and Price 12
December 6, 2023 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500/400/600 Relative Fundamentals
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500/400/600: Price Indexes
Figure 1.
5750
4950 S&P 500/400/600 STOCK PRICE INDEXES
4150
(daily, ratio scale)
3350
2550
1750
950
5750 4950 12/5 4150 3350 2550 1750
950
S&P Stock Price Indexes S&P 500 (4567.18) S&P 400 (2610.62) S&P 600 (1201.66)
150
150
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Source: Standard & Poor's.
Figure 2.
4.5
9
PRICE INDEX: S&P 500 RELATIVE TO S&P 400 and S&P 600*
(weekly)
4.0
8
S&P 500 relative to S&P 400
3.5
7
S&P 500 relative to S&P 600
3.0
6
2.5
5
2.0
4
12/1
1.5
3
1.0
2
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation and Haver Analytics.
Page 3 / December 6, 2023 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500/400/600 Relative Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500/400/600: Forward Revenues
Figure 3.
2375
2075 S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD REVENUES (dollars per share, ratio scale)
1775
1475
1175
Dec 875
11/30
2375 2075 1775 1475 1175
875
575
575
Forward Revenues* S&P 500 LargeCap (1891) S&P 400 MidCap (2230) S&P 600 SmallCap (1365)
275
275
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 4.
120
120
FORWARD REVENUES: S&P 500 RELATIVE TO S&P 400 and S&P 600*
(weekly, indexed to 100 at beginning of data series on 1/15/2004)
110
110
S&P 500 relative to S&P 400
S&P 500 relative to S&P 600
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
11/30
60
60
50
50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Page 4 / December 6, 2023 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500/400/600 Relative Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500/400/600: Forward Earnings
Figure 5.
290
250 S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD EARNINGS
210
(dollars per share, ratio scale)
170
130
90
50
290
11/30
250
210
170
130
90
50
Forward Earnings* S&P 500 LargeCap (243.83) S&P 400 MidCap (189.40) S&P 600 SmallCap (91.34)
10
10
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 6.
110
110
FORWARD EARNINGS: S&P 500 RELATIVE TO S&P 400 and S&P 600*
(weekly, indexed to 100 at beginning of data series on 1/21/1999)
100
100
S&P 500 relative to S&P 400
S&P 500 relative to S&P 600
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
11/30
50
50
40
40
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Page 5 / December 6, 2023 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500/400/600 Relative Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500/400/600: Forward P/E
Figure 7.
28
28
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES*
26
(weekly)
26
24
24
S&P 500 LargeCap (18.8)
22
S&P 400 MidCap (13.9)
22
S&P 600 SmallCap (13.2)
20
20
12/1
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 8.
1.7
1.7
FORWARD P/E RATIO: S&P 500 RELATIVE TO S&P 400 and S&P 600*
(weekly)
1.6
1.6
1.5
S&P 500 relative to S&P 400
1.5
S&P 500 relative to S&P 600
1.4
1.4
12/1
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
.9
.9
.8
.8
.7
.7
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Page 6 / December 6, 2023 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500/400/600 Relative Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500/400/600: Forward P/Sales
Figure 9.
3.0
FORWARD P/SALES RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*
2.8 (weekly)
S&P 500 LargeCap (2.41)
2.6
S&P 400 MidCap (1.14)
S&P 600 SmallCap (0.86) 2.4
3.0
2.8
2.6
11/30
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
.8
.8
.6
.6
.4
.4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected revenues per share. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 10.
3.2
3.2
FORWARD P/SALES RATIO: S&P 500 RELATIVE TO S&P 400 and S&P 600*
3.0 (weekly)
3.0
2.8
2.8
S&P 500 relative to S&P 400
2.6
S&P 500 relative to S&P 600
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.2
11/30
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
.8
.8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Page 7 / December 6, 2023 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500/400/600 Relative Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500/400/600: Forward Profit Margin
Figure 11.
14
FORWARD PROFIT MARGIN: S&P 500/400/600 13 (using analysts' average earnings and revenues forecasts)
S&P 500 LargeCap (12.7)
12
S&P 400 MidCap (8.1)
11
S&P 600 SmallCap (6.2)
14 13 11/30 12 11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 12.
3.75
3.75
FORWARD PROFIT MARGIN: S&P 500 RELATIVE TO S&P 400 and S&P 600*
(using analysts' average earnings and revenues forecasts)
3.50
3.50
3.25
S&P 500 relative to S&P 400
3.25
S&P 500 relative to S&P 600
3.00
3.00
2.75
2.75
2.50
2.50
2.25
2.25
2.00
2.00
1.75
1.75
11/30
1.50
1.50
1.25
1.25
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Page 8 / December 6, 2023 / Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500/400/600 Relative Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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