The Puppy Report 5-31-22

[Pages:11]The Puppy Report

Brought to you by The Puppy of Wall Street

Welcome to The Puppy Report for the week of 5/31/2022, don't mind the bone in the corner, I need to nosh while I'm prepping for this week in the market. First let's get one thing straight. I am NOT a financial advisor and this information is for educational purposes only. This is NOT financial advice & you take responsibility for your own trades.

Notable reports this week to watch for impact on the markets:

Monday May 30: - Market closed for Memorial Day in the US

Tuesday May 31: 9:00AM -- S&P Case-Shiller national home price index (year-over-year) 9:00AM -- FHFA national home price index (year-over-year) 9:45AM -- Chicago PMI 10:00AM -- Consumer confidence index (hint, they are not confident)

Wednesday June 1: 9:45AM -- S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI (final) 10:00AM -- ISM manufacturing index, Job openings, quits, Construction spending 2:00PM ? Fed Beige book All day -- Motor vehicle sales (SAAR)

Thursday June 2: 8:30AM -- Initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, ADP employment report 8:30AM -- Productivity revision (SAAR), Unit labor costs revision (SAAR) 10:00AM -- Factory orders, Core capital goods orders revision

Friday June 3: 8:30AM -- Nonfarm payrolls, Unemployment rate, Average hourly earnings 8:30AM -- Labor-force participation, ages 25-54 9:45AM -- S&P Global U.S. services PMI (final) 10:00AM -- ISM services index

ICYMI NEWS: Another volatile week is in the books. But with Friday's inflation numbers coming in showing a slower rate of inflation, down to 6.3%, stocks rallied on Friday. Better than expected earnings on a few retailers also sparked a rally earlier in the week, which combined to lead us to our first week in the last 7 that the major indices closed higher than they opened.

On Tuesday, an 18 yr. old armed with an AR-15 entered a school in Uvalde Texas, forever changing the small town of less than 10K residents. In that mass shooting, he killed 19 children between the ages of 8 & 11 & 2 teachers. While this is not stock market related, I want to take a minute here to pray for those victims & their families & friends. We must never forget these innocent victims, but we also need to start addressing mental illness before it ends up in mass shootings. Gun laws will not stop this, addressing mental illness early is the biggest thing we can do to stop these kinds of tragedies.

Costco's price for their Hot Dog & soda combo sold in their food court made the news this week. After false claims that they are raising the price, which quickly trended on twitter & other social media platforms the Senior Vice President for investor relations of Costco released this statement. "Let me just say the price, when we introduced the combo in the 80's was $1.50. The price today is $1.50, and we have no plans to increase the price at this time." Costco also reported earnings on Thursday & beat estimates by a small margin. $COST share price rallied on Friday from its open at $456 to close at $470.

On Tuesday, Beyond Meat announced Kim Kardashian as its first "Chief Taste Consultant. Palantir was awarded a $53.9M addition to a previous contract with the US Air Force for "Project Brown Heron Data-as-a-Service."

On Wednesday, CNBC reported Ripple will explore going public through an IPO after its lawsuit with the SEC ends. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said he expects the company will lose significant money in the Metaverse for the next 3-5 years as per Stock Market News.

On Thursday, CNBC reported Broadcom has agreed to acquire VMWare for about $61 billion in cash and stock, PR Newswire reported PayPal invested in real estate financial services company, Jetty.

On Friday, Electrek reported Nio is looking to hire vehicle manufacturing-related positions in the US leading some to believe the company may be planning a new plant in the country. Ford made its first retail delivery of the Electric F-150 Lightning, & The Washington Post reported White House officials are reportedly planning to cancel $10,000 in student debt per borrower.

In Crypto news, LUNA was delisted on Friday, and Bitcoin was showing small signs of life in a slow uptrend over the last week, with ranges swinging quickly between $28,600 and $30K & back to $28,600. It officially broke below the ascending support line on Thursday, and has not quite got back to 30K, the trend may be changing. At this point $28,200 has been support twice since then and on the highs tapped $28,760 and the next high was $29,315. If it stays above that low of $29,200, we could end up in a squeeze situation the other way. I wrote that last night and a lot more, but I'm editing it now (7PM Monday night), because it took off. 2 quick runs got us up to $31,850 now after tapping $32,500. Lately Bitcoin has been following (or leading depending on how look at it), the general market, but especially the Nasdaq. Nasdaq futures are up nicely from Friday's close, so this could be a good sign for the short week ahead.

Earnings Calendar for the week starting 5-31-2022

Why do earnings matter? Some traders buy before earnings that are anticipated to be good by analysts estimates hoping to ride the trend up as it gets closer to earnings. Earnings can also tank the stock if they come in bad, & as we have learned recently, in a bearish market, sometimes they can tank after a good report. It's also good to watch for options traders. Historically, Implied volatility usually rises on a stock before earnings and then goes down after it reports. In the options market, premiums are lower when IV is low. So if you buy calls & the IV goes up, that works in your favor. At the same time, if you sell premium (Covered calls for example) when IV is high, the trader can benefit by IV going down, thereby lowering the premium. (Sell high - buy low). Also they usually do a conference call after the report is published. On that call, they usually give forward guidance, or expectations for the following year. Every week I try to teach something different, so my regular readers will get bite sized nuggets of knowledge, when it is most relevant. This week lets check out a strategy that can help if you want to trade options efficiently. It's actually so simple, it's genius! Right now there are lots of stocks bouncing up & down quite a bit. Find some that move a bit on trend days, have good options liquidity, & you follow on the charts, news, etc, & understand the support/resistance levels on all time frames, etc. Make a watchlist of the best 5 to 10 stocks, & track options stats, trends, etc for a few weeks using 5 minute candles, & the 9/21 EMA clouds, (or the 10/20, whatever you like). Once you get the trend down on a few you just play the ones that are moving for quick 20% ? 30% flips either way, up or down. If it's earnings you also gotta watch for the IV crush after earnings report. It may run up but if the IV crashes, you could still lose, But knowing this can amplify your profits & you can place the trade after you know the earnings! Best to buy immediately after the IV crushes, & you have identified the trend. Just keep in mind, this is a high risk, high reward trade. Cut your losses quick, & cut the winners before the trend reverses by watching those EMA's. You're not looking for home runs, just base hits. 20 ? 50% & you

should have your finger on that sell button. I usually add my sell order right after buying the call or put, & then adjust it, simply because the steps to cancel/replace order is quicker. Here's an article highlighting the volatilitlity spikes around earnings. Technical Analysis & Charting: In this segment I share some technical setups I spotted this weekend & highlight them, briefly explaining each. I do this because the pictures you see in the online courses are perfect examples. In the wild they are rarely perfect, so I try to show you patterns that I see. To start with, I normally share my watchlist. My growth scanner is working again after the rally last week, but who knows if that will continue this week. The list is sorted by RSI5, (which shows strength relative to the S&P500), P/E is on the right as well. The MA X-over is showing the 9/13 EMA crosses.

The settings on my charts are as follows. The lines are dotted white ? 5EMA, dotted yellow ? 10EMA, green - 20SMA, yellow ? 50SMA, and blue ? 200SMA. Red lines are price levels of support/resistance. Unless noted I am showing the 1Y1D chart, it covers 1 year & each candle is 1 day. Below the chart is a lot of info. RSI is also on the volume panel. Volume is bulls vs bears volume, so red indicates selling and green indicates buying. Below that is the TTM Squeeze indicator, and on some charts I show the implied volatility on the very bottom. $CC (Chart next page) Chemours, Apparently, chemicals got sexy again in the beginning of May; this under the radar stocks has been making new highs. All the technical indicators are pointing up, but the RSI is at 69, just about overbought territory. But it's spiked up to 75 the last few times. It's rated outperform with a target price of $44, which is where it's at now. Thursday was a CAHOLD, (Closed Above the High Of the Low Day). This has momentum behind it as well.

I'm watching for a pullback & bounce, the support level is fairly new so it may re-test that level & run some more. It has long term potential & a decent dividend also, but I'd like it around $41. $CTRA I brought this to your attention on May 1st, when it was at $28.79. At this point you should have a trailing SL in place, but this is Nat Gas, if you're not in it's probably not too late. Anything gas & oil is running. Just load up on pullbacks & drop a few at the peaks till it gets settled out. That $32.50's support is new, so I'd slap an alert on at that price level, and load up there if we get a re-test & bounce. Wait for the bounce though, don't buy on the way down.

$OLN (chart next page) This is a chemical production company, they make epoxies, chlorine, hydrochloric acid, & ammunition for military small arms & sporting ammunition & reloading parts & equipment under the Winchester brand. They also only have 151M shares outstanding.

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