PDF Looking for the best stocks in 2017, Gain insight from 2016

[Pages:26]Looking for the best stocks in 2017, Gain insight from 2016

Successful investors know picking stock market winners starts by studying leaders of the past and identify common characteristics that preceded their big moves. Top Stocks 2016 focuses on stocks with the highest percentage gain during the calendar year. Top Stocks 2016 includes:

? Over 60 color stock graphs with price/volume activity and fundamental data as of 12/31/16

? Enhanced view of technical action, provided by MarketSmith's Pattern Recognition software

? Select stock charts annotated by MarketSmith product coaches illustrate key observations

Order your copy of Top Stocks 2016 today.

Go to Marketsmith.TS2016 or call us at (800)-831-2525

Stock Guide Winter 2017

This past year has given investors quite a ride. In January the Dow had a particularly dismal 10-day trading period marking one of its worst starts in history. The markets fought to recover and by mid-summer began a new uptrend. A move to new highs as the year came to a close was miraculous.

A post-analysis of 2016 is important as investors look to refine and update their trading strategies. In January with oil prices falling and a fear of rising interest rates, investors sought the safety of gold and mining stocks. As the economic news settled down, summer brought us some IPOs with sizeable winning moves. After November's election surprise, construction and banking stocks began strong moves to help drive the markets to new highs. Despite different flashpoints throughout the year, there were tradable rallies that could be identified using sector rotation.

Our Winter 2017 Stock Guide provides a checklist for your investing post-analysis, illustrates how looking at sector rotation this past year pointed to winning stocks, and discusses the importance of locking-in gains on the upside, while a stock is still advancing. The stock screens provide comprehensive lists of the top stocks and industries of 2016.

There are numerous opportunities in the market every year to capture profits from winning stocks. Only by understanding the ones that got away and staying up-to-date with current market action can you ensure you'll capture the next big winner.

As always, if you have any questions or comments about MarketSmith or your investing research, please contact a MarketSmith product coach at (800) 831-2525. We look forward to hearing from you.

Best Returns,

The MarketSmith Team

Table of Contents

Market Charts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 MarketSmith Education Tips . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Winter 2017 Screens*

2016's Top Stocks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Teck Resources Ltd . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (TECK) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 United States Steel Corp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (X) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 The Chemours Company . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (CC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Clayton Williams Energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (CWEI) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Navistar Intl Corp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (NAV) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Nvidia Corp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (NVDA). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

2016's Top Industries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Pan American Silver Corp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (PAAS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Consol Energy Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (CNX) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Joy Global Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (JOY) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Barrick Gold Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (ABX) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Mastec Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (MTZ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Finisar Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (FNSR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

2016's Future Earnings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Charles Schwab Corp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (SCHW) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Semtech Corporation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (SMTC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Callon Petroleum Co . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (CPE) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Inphi Corp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (IPHI) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Lifelock Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (LOCK). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Align Technology Inc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . (ALGN). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

Stock Guide Legend . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on December 30, 2016.

S & P 500 INDEX

CLOSE 2238.83

Market Charts

2277.53

2280

2081.56

2111.05

2120.55

2193.81 2119.12

2025.91

50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE

1991.68

2230

2180

2130

2083.79

200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE

2080 2030

1980

1930

1880

1812.291810.10 DAILY VOLUME AND 50-DAY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME LINE

1 15 29 12 JAN 2016 FEB

26 11 MAR

25 8 APR

22 6 MAY

20 3 17 1 15 29 12 26 9

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

1830

23 7 OCT

2.3 B 1.4 B 800 M

450 M

21 4 NOV

18 2 16 30 DEC

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

CLOSE 5383.12

5342.88

5550 5450 5350

5116.99

4969.32

4980.14

4678.38

50 DAY 5097.80 MOVING

AVERAGE 5034.41

200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE

5250 5150 5050 4950 4850 4750 4650

4574.25

4550

4450

4350

DAILY VOLU4M20E9.A7N6D 50-DAY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME LINE

4250 3.3 B

1 15 29 12 JAN 2016 FEB

26 11 MAR

25 8 APR

22 6 MAY

20 3 17 1 15 29 12 26 9

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

23 7 OCT

1.9 B 1.2 B

21 4 NOV

600 M 18 2 16 30

DEC

4

MarketSmith Education Tips

Post-Analysis Focus

1. To begin your post-analysis, review the charts of the stocks you owned and mark up the technical action like chart patterns, pivot points, moving averages, volume clues, etc. ? Remember hindsight is 20/20 and it should be much easier this time around to pick out buy points and sell signals.

? If you have Pattern Recognition enabled, check to see if the program identifies the patterns the same way you did.

2. Next mark down where you bought and sold shares.

3. Examine entry points and sell signals that you missed and create rules or procedures in your research routine to address those entries.

4. Review any improper entry points you made and try to trace whether the source of that mistake due to: ? Improper market timing ? Improper chart analysis ? A psychological mistake/failure to follow rules

5. Finally take note of anywhere you sold improperly including those listed below: ? Not cutting losses short ? Selling too soon (based on fear rather than sell rules) ? Not taking profits at upside profit targets ? Ignoring defensive sell signals after the stock has already run up

If you are noticing the same mistakes on several of your stocks, adjust your buy, sell and portfolio management rules accordingly. This process is much easier if you have maintained notes on your transactions throughout the year. To ensure a beneficial postanalysis, try to make it a habit to record thoughts and observations using MarketSmith's chart markups or the journal feature each time you make a trade.



Winter 2017

5

MarketSmith Education Tips

Looking at Sector Rotation in 2016

Using a post-analysis lets investors see how they could have capitalized on the trends of the year. Looking at Industry and Sector rotation throughout the year helps clarify where the top stocks of 2016 originated. (For more information on using MarketSmith to identify sector rotation, see the Spring 2016 edition of Stock Guide.)

Despite the year's volatility, tradable rallies emerged in conjunction with rotating industry groups. Institutions focus on longer-term trends, as opposed to shorter-term fads, allowing investors to track which industries are benefiting from institutional money.

Safety in Gold and Mining

Early in the year as global market volatility sparked investors' fear, gold stocks emerged and became the flight to safety. Additionally, the mining industry group quickly moved into favor, its ranking moved from 151 to 13 within the first five weeks of January.

Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd (AEM) NYSE Mining-Gold/Silver/Gems



Market Capitaliz ation

Options Yes

Shares in Float

Short Interest 2.4 days +1%

Shares Outstanding

$9340.1 Million 222.1 Million 224.3 Million

$42.13

+0.13 +0.31%

Volume 482,500 -79%

HEADQUARTERS: Toronto, ON

PHONE: 416-947-1212

50-Day Avg Volume 2,044,100

CANADIAN COMPANY ENGAGED IN THE PRODUCTION, DEVELOPMENT AND EXPLORATION OF GOLD IN CANADA, U.S., FINLAND AONffD52M-WEXeeIkCHOi.gh

-29.9%

07/27/16 Expects 2016 capital expenditures of about $491 mil

52-Week Hi-Lo $60.10-$25.91

Year (Dec) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EPS (C $ )

0.69 1.76 1.97 2.17 -1.00 0.87 0.43 0.62

Pric e ($ ) High Low

74 42

88 49

77 34

57 31

53 23

42 21

34 21

est.

44%

EPS Rating

73

Group RS Rating

2

SMR Rating

C

Acc/Dis Rating

D-

Composite Rating

35

Timeliness Rating

C

Sponsorship Rating

E

EPS Growth Rate

N/A

Earnings Stability

N/A

P/E Ratio

76 (4.0 X SP)

+21% from Pivot in 4P8ricewe e ks

S ca le

S&P 500 18 0 16 0 14 0 12 0 10 0

80

2017

0.88 est.

42% 5-Year P/E Range

15-112

Yield

1.0% Return on Equity

2%

60

ExDiv

11/29/16 Cash Flow

$ 3.22

50

Book Value

x2.28 Debt 27% Ownership

Inventory T/O

4.37X R&D 5.6% Mgmt

0%

40

U/D Vol Ratio New CEO

Top RS in Grp

Buenavntura

0.8 Alpha 0.23 Banks

2%

02/1998 Beta -0.22 Funds 50%

Symbol RS EPS Rtg No. of Funds

BVN

88

52 Dec-15 849

34

30 RS Ra ting

42

26

23

PanAmSlvr OJSC Polyus

PAAS

83

OPYGY 80

79 Mar-16 954 50

BarrickGld Newmont Quarterly

Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16

ABX

74

72 Jun-16 992

NEM

72

57

Sep-16

1040

EEPPSS(C$E)PS %CEPhSg SalEePsS(C$EMPSil)

+34% -15% +31%

-9% -47%

0.08 #+105%

503.1

EP%S C hgEPS

N/A

-55%

+15%

0.15 -72%

483.6

-2%

0.09 -68%

510.1

+16%

0.18 +800%

508.8

+10%

0.02 -75%

482.9

-4%

0.12 -20%

490.5

+1%

E PS N/A

E PS +74%

E PS +999%

E PS -94%

EPS EPS +105% -72%

E PS -68%

E PS +800%

E PS -75%

E PS -20%

E PS +78%

E PS +39%

20 18 16 14 12

Vo l u me 12 ,2 0 0 ,0 0 0 5 ,2 9 0 ,0 0 0 2 ,30 0 ,0 0 0 9 9 9 ,0 0 0

Jun-16

0.16 +78%

537.6

+5%

SepM-1a6r 12 Jun 120.2S5ep 12+3D9e%c 12 Mar 1361J0u.n9 13 Sep+1230%Dec 13 Mar 14 Jun 14 Sep 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17

Real-time prices by BATS ?. Volume delayed. Owners hip and Es timate data provided by Thoms on Reuters . Real-time quote and/or trade prices are?no2t0s1o6uMrcaerdkefrtoSmmiathll, mInacrokreptosr.arteadc. hus @ 01m.0a3.

Winter 2017



6

MarketSmith Education Tips

Optimism in IPOs

During the summer rally, initial public offerings (IPO) had their brief moment in the sun as names like Acacia and Twilio surged to new highs. However, optimism in new names quickly soured after the companies introduced more shares into the market indicating insiders were cashing out of the stock.

Twilio Inc Cl A (TWLO) NYSE Computer Sftwr-Enterprse



Market Capitaliz ation

Options Yes

Shares in Float

Short Interest 1.7 days +31%

Shares Outstanding

$2.39 Bil 34.1 Million 87.1 Mil(34.4 Mil)

$27.68

-1.17 -4.06%

Volume 3,111,100 -49%

HEADQUARTERS: San Francisco, CA

PHONE: 415-390-2337

IPO 6/23/2016

50-Day Avg Volume 5,608,300

PROVIDES A CLOUD-BASED PLATFORM THAT ENABLES DEVELOPERS TO B UILD, SCALE AND OPERATE REAL-TIME COMMUNICATOIOffN52S-Week High

-61.0%

11/03/16 Expects 2016 non-GAAP loss of $0.23 to $0.21 per share on revenues of $268.0 mil to $270.0 mil

52-Week Hi-Lo $70.96-$23.66

Year (Dec) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

EPS ($ )

-0.32 -0.32 -0.35 -0.22 -0.10

Yield ExDiv Book Value Inventory T/O U/D Vol Ratio New CEO

Price($) EPS Rating

38

High Low Group RS Rating

57

SMR Rating

D

Acc/Dis Rating

D+

Composite Rating

18

Timeliness Rating

C

Sponsorship Rating

C

EPS Growth Rate

N/A

Earnings Stability

N/A

est. N/A P/E Ratio

N/A

est. N/A 5-Year P/E Range

N/A

NONE Return on Equity

[N/A]

N/A Cash Flow

$ -0.72

x21.55 Debt N/A Ownership

N/A R&D 25.5% Mgmt

1%

0.6 Alpha 0.06 Banks

0%

N/A Beta 1.08 Funds 10%

48%

S&P 500

Price S ca le 18 0 16 0

14 0

12 0

10 0

80

60 50

40 34 30

Top RS in Grp Symbol RS EPS Rtg No. of Funds

26

Intralks Hdg I IL

96



WIX

96

QAD Inc A

QADA 93

72 Dec-15 N/A

52 Sep-15 N/A 28

Ipo $1 5.00

PO

23

RS Ra ting

7

20 18

16

QAD I B AspenTech

QADB

91

AZPN

88

29 Jun-16

85

84

Sep-16

101

PPO

14 12

Quarterly

E PS($ )

%Chg Sales($MEPiSl) E%PS ChgEPS

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Dec-14

-0.10

N/A

27.7

+122%

Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15

-0.10

N/A

-0.09

N/A

-0.06

N/A

33.4

+90%

38.0

+89%

44.3

+88%

Vo l u me 30 ,5 0 0 ,0 0 0

16 ,8 0 0 ,0 0 0

Dec-15

-0.10

N/A

51.3

+85%

9 ,2 5 0 ,0 0 0

Mar-16

-0.08

N/A

59.3

+78%

5 ,0 9 0 ,0 0 0

Jun-16

-0.07

N/A

64.5

+70%

SepM-1a6r 12 Jun 1-20.0S4ep 12 DNe/Ac 12 Mar 13 7J1u.n5 13 Sep+1632%Dec 13 Mar 14 Jun 14 Sep 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17

Real-time prices by BATS ?. Volume delayed. Owners hip and Es timate data provided by Thoms on Reuters. Real-time quote and/or trade prices are?no2t0s1o6uMrcaerdkefrtSommiathll, mInacrokreptosr.arteda.chus0@1m.03a.r2k0e1t7s

Acacia Communications (ACIA) NASDAQ Telecom-Fiber Optics

acacia-

Market Capitaliz ation

Options Yes

Shares in Float

Short Interest 2.7 days +53%

Shares Outstanding

$2324.2 Million 10.1 Million 37.4 Million

$62.26

+0.51 +0.83%

Volume 287,800 -85%

HEADQUARTERS: Maynard, MA

PHONE: 978-938-4896

IPO 5/13/2016

50-Day Avg Volume 1,709,500

DEVELOPS HIGH-SPEED INTERCONNECT MODULES FOR CLOUD INFRASTRU CTURE OPERATORS AND COMMUNICATION SERVICEOPfRf 5O2V-WIDeEeRkSH.igh

-51.6%

11/10/16 Expects Q4 2016 non-GAAP earnings of $0.85 to $0.92 per diluted share on revenues of $136.0 mil to $141.0 mil

52-Week Hi-Lo $128.73-$27.05

Year EPS

Price($) EPS Rating

99

(Dec) ($) High Low Group RS Rating

82

+4 4 % from Pivot in 3P0ricewe e ks S ca le

2009

SMR Rating

A

2010

Acc/Dis Rating

D-

2011

2012

2013

0.03

2014

0.40

2015

0.90

Composite Rating Timeliness Rating Sponsorship Rating

EPS Growth Rate Earnings Stability

93 B C

234% 37

2016

3.17 est. 252% P/E Ratio

24 (1.3 X SP)

2017

3.58 est.

13% 5-Year P/E Range

15-50

260 S&P 500 230

200 18 0 16 0 14 0

12 0

10 0

Yield

NONE Return on Equity

56%

ExDiv

N/A Cash Flow

$ 0.99

80

Book Value

x29.33 Debt

4% Ownership

Inventory T/O

11.14X R&D 16.2% Mgmt 13%

60

U/D Vol Ratio

0.5 Alpha 0.49 Banks

0%

New CEO

N/A Beta 1.09 Funds 27%

50

Top RS in Grp Symbol RS EPS Rtg No. of Funds

Finisar

FNSR

95

Applie d Optlc

AAOI

93

Lumentum

LITE

89

91 Dec-15 N/A

56 Sep-15 N/A 99

C le a rfie ld

C L FD

82

LumosNtwks

LMOS

80

Quarterly EPS($) %Chg

Dec-14

0.08 +700%

Mar-15

0.14 +27%

Jun-15

0.17 +55%

Sep-15

0.26 +136%

Dec-15

0.33 +313%

80 Jun-16 145

8

Sep-16

159

Sa le s($ ME PiSl)

N/A

41.0

E%PS C hgEPS

N/A

N/A

+111%

47.2

+73%

57.9

+86%

65.4

+40%

68.6

+67%

Ipo $2 3.00

RS Ra ting

89

40

34

PO

30

-

26

PPO

23

20

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

E PS

EPBSarrons EPS

18

N/A +999% +999% +999% +700% +27% +55% +136% +313% +193%

+376% +288%

Vo l u me 7 ,8 0 0 ,0 0 0

3,330 ,0 0 0

1,4 2 0 ,0 0 0

Mar-16

0.41 +193%

84.5

+79%

6 0 7 ,0 0 0

Jun-16

0.81 +376%

116.2

+101%

SepM-1a6r 12 Jun 121.0S1ep 1+228D8e%c 12 Mar 1313J5u.n3 13 Se+p11037%Dec 13 Mar 14 Jun 14 Sep 14 Dec 14 Mar 15 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17

Real-time prices by BATS ?. Volume delayed. Owners hip and Es timate data provided by Thoms on Reuters . Real-time quote and/or trade prices are?no2t0s1o6uMrcaerdkefrtSommiathll, mInacrokreptosr.arteda.chus0@1m.03a.r2k0e1t7s



Winter 2017

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