ICECAP
TROPICAL LULL PERIOD – TYPICAL FOR JULY
After Alex and a TD that both tracked to northern Mexico and southern Texas, the tropical Atlantic has become quiet. The ITCZ has been suppressed south of 10N where development is impaired by the lack of the coriolis effect (that causes the spin when disturbances develop).
[pic]
One of the key reasons for the quiet period is a large slug of Saharan dust which has blown across the subtropical Atlantic shown in yellows and reds on the Wisconsin CIMSS imagery below. This dry dusty air produces stability and inhibits any convection. It is typical of July and usually explains the mid summer lull.
[pic]
A disturbance can be seen coming off of Africa north of 10N seen above and in the infrared image below. Another will follow. Models do not suggest development.
[pic]
Ocean temperatures have cooled some from early spring levels with some upwelling of cold water off Africa and in the southwestern Gulf after the mixing from Alex and the TD.
[pic]
Activity usually picks up in mid August as the subtropical high shifts north seasonally and the dust diminishes.
My guess is an above normal season but not the extreme number of storms as in 2005. The AMO remains well above normal with the warmth in the tropics and North Atlantic, usually correlating with active seasons. Warm water off the east coast makes the threat of a major storm more likely. Warm Atlantic summers with a negative PDO usually mean enhanced east coast threats. More later
................
................
In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.
To fulfill the demand for quickly locating and searching documents.
It is intelligent file search solution for home and business.