The writings of R. Anthony Saritelli Riverside, Rhode ...
It’s perhaps the phase of the Moon, silly!When hurricanes strike the US Northeast in making their initial landfall.Thirteen percent of the world’s hurricanes occur in the Atlantic Ocean and most do not make landfall especially in the northeast United States. Considering the past historical record, it defies expectations if more than 5-10 hurricanes per century hit New England, but people often lose sight of the massive damage that tropical storms have done to the metropolitan areas of the greater Northeast. The New England Gale of 1869 was a compact storm just 60 miles wide that on a northwest track just brushed Long Island before slamming into southwest Rhode Island with maximum fury on September 8th. The new Moon occurred on that September 5th. In 1954, not a single hurricane struck Georgia, the Gulf states or Florida but 3 storms hit the North Atlantic states. Hurricane Carol brought to New York storm tides of 15 feet and left standing water in downtown Providence, RI of over ten feet. The following year, Hurricanes Connie and Diane battered within days of each other New York as well as southern New England.. In 1960, the winds of Hurricane Donna pummeling the Mid-Atlantic coast produced an 11-foot storm tide within New York Harbor. It made landfall in the Northeast at 2 pm over Long Island, NY on September 12th after previously causing much destruction on September 10th in Florida with 145 mph winds. It hit the Northeastern states under the visage of a last quarter waning moon [50% lit] phase after trekking northward hugging the coast for 2 days after its Floridian landfall. Likewise, a massive storm system named the Norfolk Long Island Hurricane struck in 1821 hitting New York with so much rain that the Hudson and East rivers merged as one across lower Manhattan. The density and force of moving water is 1,000 times more powerful than the force of air moving along similarly. It too had previously made landfall in the early morning hours of September 3rd on the North Carolinian Outer Banks with sustained 130 mph winds; it followed the coastal shore line northward before striking New York that evening. Compared to Hurricane Sandy in 2012 the wind shield was more severe and affected a larger area of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast shoreline. It followed a track resembling that of Hurricane Irene in late August 2011 but exhibited greater intensity, making its initial landfall a full week after the new Moon. Hurricane Irene first struck the North Carolina coastline at 8 am one day before the new Moon of August 28th, 2011 however. The Great Atlantic Storm of 1962 brought torrents of rain and near 40-foot waves that caused flooding that wrecked 45, 000 homes in New Jersey alone. It is known as the Ash Wednesday winter storm but despite its strength it was an Atlantic Nor’easter and not a hurricane. On Wednesday September 23, 1964, the first day of Fall and one day after the full Moon, Hurricane Gladys causes severe beach erosion from high waves and moderate wind gusts on Long Island as it tracks 200 miles south of New York. September is the most active month for tropical storms to strike New York; since the 17th century there are listed 84 tropical or subtropical storms hitting the state with 37 coming in the ninth month. Between 1950 and 2007 studies show that Atlantic storms were more likely to form soon after a new Moon. They also intensify almost 50 % more during new Moons than at any other moon phase. The Great Hurricane of 1938 landed on Long Island on September 21st when the Moon was in a waning crescent just 2 days before the new Moon during an intense high tide. The Autumnal Equinox, the change from summer to fall, occurred at 1 pm on September 23rd in 1938. On September 23, 1815 the Great September Gale struck right on the Autumnal Equinox at an exceptional high tide during a waning gibbous moon, just 4 days past its full illumination. Both hurricanes originated off the Cape Verde Islands, followed virtually similar tracks from the Bahamas and struck the barrier beaches on Long Island within 10 miles of one another. Tides are higher worldwide at the equinoxes although the effect is most pronounced at the Equator. Tides are higher than normal at the summer solstice and in the opposite hemisphere that is simultaneously experiencing the winter solstice the high tide is proportionately lower. The Tropics of Cancer [23.44 degrees North latitude] and the Tropic of Capricorn [23.44 degrees South latitude] that alternate every other season to experience the direct rays of the high noon Sun likewise experience the same sequence for being in direct line for the full gravitational mass of the Sun. Hurricane Diane made landfall in New England* August 15-16th, 1955 when the Moon was just 8% illuminated and one day before the new Moon. Each lunar cycle begins with a new Moon. Hurricane Irene made landfall first in North Carolina before causing havoc in the Northeast including Vermont on August 28, 2011 on the new Moon. Hurricane Esther was just 37 miles southeast of Nantucket Island on September 20, 1961 and would have hit Cape Cod on a northwest track just prior to the full Moon except it suddenly looped away to the southeast being pushed eastward over cooler waters by a secondary low front from the west and completed a full circle while losing strength during the full Moon starting on the Autumnal Equinox [09/23/1961] and ending on the 25th. On the 26th, now Tropical Storm Esther slammed into eastern Cape Cod and weakened continued into the Gulf of Maine. After the sunlit portion of the Moon’s disc increases but when it is still less than 50% bright it is a waxing crescent moon. Hurricane Carol landed on August 31, 1954 in southeast New England on a waxing crescent moon less than 3 days after the new Moon. Hurricane Sandy hit New Jersey making landfall on October 29, 2012---a full Moon where the disc is 100% illuminated is visible weather permitting throughout the night rising at sunset in the eastern sky and setting with sunrise the next morning. A synodic month is 29.53 days, the exact time between successive full Moons. New to full Moon equals one-half of the lunar month. A total lunar eclipse can only occur on the night of a full Moon. Every full moon is not eclipsed by the Earth’s projected dark shadow on the face of the Moon its orbital plane is tilted in a 5% declination compared to the orbital plane of the Earth around the Sun. They do not intersect normally but only when their paths intersect along the same orbital plane at a crossing node. The Great Colonial Hurricane brushed the Jamestown colony of Virginia supposedly on August 24, 1635 and then it passed over eastern Long Island and then moved into New England. Wikipedia records that the hurricane dissipated by August 25th, but this date is suspect. It blew into the New England coast reportedly on August 26th, 1635. Witnesses in Rhode Island state that at daybreak the late August 1635 storm trekked into Narragansett Bay where 8 Indians fleeing their teepees were drowned that morning by the massive storm surge; the storm headed on toward Boston and raged for six hours but that very night was a total eclipse of the full Moon. Are these accounts fully accurate? The eclipse of the full Moon, a precisely timed astronomical event occurred definitively on the night of August 28, 1635. A wonderful account by the Reverend Richard Mathers of the voyages of the James, the ship he was traveling on, and the Angel Gabriel that left the English coast on June 22, 1635 and spent most of the three-month crossing of the Atlantic sailing together; it states that the James anchored on the Isle of Shoals and the Angel Gabriel off the coast of Pemaquid, Maine on the night of August 14, 1635. They anchored at 10 pm and spent a quiet night but the storm hit them the next day on August 15th. The Angel Gabriel was destroyed but the James survived the onslaught and the hobbled ship journeyed onward anchoring just off Boston, Massachusetts on the night of August 16th to enter the harbor and dock the next day. The dates do not coincide but there exists an explanation. There was often confusion during those Colonial times because the Protestant English colonies like the motherland followed the Julian calendar whereas the Catholic countries in Europe employed the Gregorian calendar. During the Middle Ages it became apparent that the Julian calendar was adding an extra day every 128-years. It overcompensated during leap years; the seasons were becoming unaligned with the traditional times of celebration for important Church holidays like Easter. Protestants did not follow the Catholic Pope. The English did not adopt the updated calendar until 1752 and to do so it had to make some drastic alterations to implement the Gregorian calendar. For example, September 2, 1752 was followed by English decree by September 14, 1752, dropping 11 days to ensure uniformity with the ‘new-style’ dating. Between 1582 and 1752, not only were there two different calendars in Europe and their colonies but also two different New Years, March 25th and newer January 1st. In Latin, the names of the months like September, October, November and December represent the seventh, eight, ninth and tenth months of the year that begins on March 25th. It was not uncommon for important documents in the American colonies to be documented with duplicate dating indicating both the old-style Julian and the new-style Gregorian. Some American colonists independently updated after the English adoption of the new calendar revising the dates of their writings and documentation of important life and legal events adding to the historical confusion. George Washington was born on February 11, 1731 under the Julian calendar but afterwards to reflect the 1752 adoption by England of the Gregorian system his birthdate is recorded as February 22, 1732. If one adds eleven full days to the old-style Mather’s journal entry date of August 15th, the storm had reached the coast of Maine by the end of day on August 26th by the Gregorian calendar.When one-half of the disc facing us is lit the Moon is in its first quarter phase, remember the moon has 2 sides front and back. As the shadow continues to decrease the Moon phase is waxing gibbous until fully illuminated. Waxing means increased illumination whereas waning is the opposite increasing shadowing of the reflective moon disc. The waxing gibbous phase occurs when the Moon is between 45 degrees and 90 degrees angle with respect to the Earth and the Sun. On September 27, 1985 Hurricane Gloria struck the Northeast during a waxing gibbous moon when it was 98 % lit just two days before the full Moon. On August 19, 1991 Hurricane Bob struck New England also on a waxing gibbous moon being 72 % lit but still over 4 days from being full. During the latter half of the lunar month the fully lit Moon grows progressively thinner in visibility during the waning gibbous phase until it reaches the midway transect known as the last quarter. From there the shadowing increases about 12 % each night and the lit part showing is known as the waning crescent Moon. At 0 % illumination the new Moon starts the lunar cycle again. The new Moon occurs when all three bodies are aligned, and it is squarely between the Sun and the Earth and only its backside from our planet is lit. Its vague outline can often be seen during the day hours, but it is unobserved at night. The full Moon also occurs when there is a similar linear alignment of the Sun, Earth and Moon but the Moon is on the direct opposite side of the Earth so that its face appears fully lit to us at night. As one can see, the trend at least anecdotally is for hurricanes that normally veer out eastward to sea across the Atlantic and when they do not they proposedly make landfall in the Northeast while the moon phase is on or close to either the new or full Moon.The Moon and Earth move in the same direction along the elliptical orbit around the Sun. Earth rotates in 24 hours completing its day but for the revolving Moon to be precisely over the same place on Earth it takes 24 hours and fifty minutes. This is due to the Moon’s revolution around our planet. This explains why the interval between high tides at the same location is 12 hours and 25 minutes and high tides arrive at the same geographic location about an hour later the following day. In the semidiurnal tidal zone along the US eastern seaboard, it takes 6 hours and 12 minutes for the Earth to rotate from a high tide bulge to a low tide trough. The Sun also plays a role in tides but despite its much greater mass its greater distance reduces its tide-raising force on Earth to 46 % of the Moon’s influence. The solar tidal period is exactly 24 hours however. The Moon’s orbit is inclined to the ecliptic—the apparent path of the Sun among the stars over the year-- by only about 5-degrees, so both are additive to the tidal force when astronomically aligned. The tidal bulge induced by the Moon continuously moves eastward compared to the tidal bulge powered by the gravity of the Sun. Counterintuitively, there is a second tidal bulge that is 180 degrees opposite that which is closest to the Moon. It is located where the Moon’s gravity affects the ocean water least. The lunar gravitational force and its opposite counterpart induced by centrifugal force of the rotating Earth are zones that do not stay fixed in place but progress eastward at the same rate as the Moon’s monthly motion around Earth relative to the stars. As the tidal bulge[s] interact with the coastline on land, the tides appear to flood inward during a high tide, and then flow back out to sea during an ebb tide. During a new Moon, the high tides that are typically produced independently by the Sun and Moon coincide producing additive tides with the maximum differential between high and low tide. These are a form of higher tides known as Spring tides. In actuality, because of the enormous magnitude of the mass of the oceans there is a lag-time to overcome the inertia of the water to move and the Spring tide will occur two days or so later after the full or new Moon. Also, the Earth’s own gravity is about 10 million times stronger at any point than that of the Moon and this works against the formation of tidal changes despite the differential of the Moon’s and Sun’s gravity on opposing sides of the planet. However, water molecules at the poles are pulled almost directly downward towards the Earth’s center at its core whereas at the Equator the water molecules are more affected by the Moon and Sun’s tug. Water molecules that are furthest from the Moon [Sun] meanwhile feel the weakest gravitational acceleration. The net difference in gravitational pull from the Moon between the side of the Earth facing the Moon [Sun] and the opposite side is minimal. Since water molecules collide into one another their interactions collectively add up, increasing pressure and pushing seawater away from the poles. The Moon and Sun’s gravity does not actually lift-up the water column otherwise even backyard pools would rise in tow with the overhead moon; rather in a complex dance among the 3 competing gravitational forces the Earth’s gravitational effect on polar water molecules acts in countering the Moon and Sun’s gravitation effect causing the ocean’s water pressure to increase along the Earth-Moon line so that the ocean tidal bulges are formed by squeezing seawater towards the Equator. This pressure squeeze causes the tidal bulges that the Earth rotates through at high tides. Low tides occur where the changes caused by the tidal flow is weak partly because they are less in alignment with the Moon [Sun] allowing Earth’s downward pull on the water molecules above to remain dominant. Dramatic tide changes occur where the geometry of the coast and sea bottom funnel large volumes of water into an area. This tidal process can only occur because the Earth’s ocean cover 71 % of its surface and causes a dynamic and interplay of forces that are unique to such an expansive as well as contiguous liquid. Smaller bodies of water like lakes, rivers, landlocked seas and ponds do not have enough volume of liquid to create enough pressure to produce the tidal bulges because they cannot overcome the Earth’s own gravitational effect. Tidal effects even in the Mediterranean Sea are minimal. Roman navy vessels sailing in English waters were unaccustomed to the tidal changes. The Moon moves eastward about 12 degrees each day reaching in a week reaching a 90 degrees right angle to the solar tidal bulge in its first quarter phase. The troughs of the tidal bulge forged by the Sun now coincide with the crests of the moon tide and likewise the tidal crests from the Sun are interfered with by the troughs of the Moon tide. There is a cancellation effect that occurs resulting in the smallest range between successive high and low tides. These are neap tides. In another 7 days, the three heavenly orbs are again in alignment, but the Moon and Sun are now on opposite sides of the Earth. The Moon is lit full, with the crests and troughs of the lunar and solar tidal bulges again coinciding to produce the higher Spring tides; albeit the augmentation of the high and lows are not as great as under a new Moon. This tidal phase is in a week again followed by neap tides completing the 4-week cycle where the intensity of the ocean tides varies according to the alignment at each given moment of the Earth, Moon and Sun. Tides behave differently in various regions of the world but along the US Atlantic coast the tidal sequence from high to low is semidiurnal occurring twice daily.Just as the Moon and Sun pull on the oceans they also pull on the air above it. The air above is another contiguous expanse of energetic gas molecule where the interplay of gravities from above and below can cause pressure differences and tidal migration. Air at lower altitudes is denser being pulled stronger by the planet’s gravity and there exists a vertical pressure gradient. The winds are the result of a complex interplay between temperature, air pressure and density gradients and the Coriolis effect caused by the Earth’s counterclockwise rotation. Atmospheric tides above both land and sea are theorized to be weak but could create conditions for storms to strengthen or affect the conditions that influence their navigational track. In 1743, Benjamin Franklin rebuked the thinking of the time that large storms were mainly stationary. He read in a Boston newspaper about a storm whose clouds and rains had ruined his viewing of a lunar eclipse [full moon] the night before in Philadelphia on November 2, 1743. His brother who lived in Boston was able to observe the eclipse prior to the storm hitting Boston and sent him the details in the post. This revelation surprised Franklin in that he thought from the northeast direction of the winds that his brother would experience the storm first prior to it reaching him. Franklin correctly deduced that the direction of the surface winds circling a storm system were only incidental to the forward movement of the storm. It was a blowing Nor’easter but the storm itself was traveling from south to north. Hurricanes are similar in that despite the ferocity of their spinning winds around a tranquil eye they are not propelled forward by such circular wind action. In fact, within areas of the same storm system there are significant differences in intensity. The calm center typically is 40-50 miles wide with blue skies while the very outer rim exhibits winds that are weak at 30-40 mph. In between from the eyewall outward to the rim is the killing zone. In the Northern Hemisphere winds blow counterclockwise and the highest winds blow east of the eye and the internal wind speeds are additive to the direction the storm is moving forward. To the west despite lower wind speeds often the heaviest rain falls. The closer the wind is to the center eyewall the faster it circulates. It’s the independent winds exterior to the outer rim that push the system, moving the storm in a specific direction and speed. For a hurricane to form certain parameters must be met. The ocean depth must be at least 200 feet and the surface water at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit. The thunderclouds that tighten into a concise ring must be close to the Equator but not on it because it needs sufficient planetary spin to create the cyclonic rotation. Between five degrees north or south of the equatorial line is a dead zone, the doldrums. Whereas more than 30 degrees N or S there is insufficient humidity in the air to support the nurturing of an embryonic tropical cyclone. External wind direction and patterns are not the only events that steer the storm’s navigation although recognition of their effects on a storm system may not be instantly apparent. The morning forecast conditions on the US eastern seaboard north on September 21, 1938 were mystifying to interpret. Long Island was a humid steam bath with severe thunderstorms threatening New York. A low-pressure system stretched from New England to the Carolinas. A broad ridge of high pressure extended from Newfoundland stretching southeastward over a large expanse of ocean. There was a danger of serious flooding in central Connecticut and western Massachusetts. The storm system that had for four days been threatening Florida was at 7:30 am 140 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras. It had that night been downgraded to a tropical disturbance; its forecasted path was to curve easterly out to sea to the deep ocean. Washington D.C., eastern Connecticut and Rhode Island were pleasantly sunny that morning. In the upper atmosphere above the nation’s capital 50 mph southerly winds were blowing due north. At 10 am, the storm being 300 miles to the southeast was being pushed northward by the same winds. Because of the unusual conditions in the upper atmosphere it headed directly on a straight track north from Hatteras for a major population area and would hit Long Island 600 miles away. But in 1938 the US Weather Bureau trailed the more scientific methods used in Europe. The Spanish Armada was doomed by a gale. World War I was a strong catalyst for advancing the science of forecasting in Europe. Victory or defeat is often determined by weather. Meteorologists especially in Norway pioneered a new type of synoptic forecasting based on the analysis of air mass and how their movements are manipulated by weather fronts. In January 1938 a confidential report studying the U.S. Weather Bureau criticized that it lacked a solid scientific basis and its techniques and training needed modernization. At a noon meeting that day, a junior forecaster, Mr. Charles Pierce, presented his charted forecast that was at odds with the official projection that the storm would be steered out to sea. He noted that the extremely low-pressure reading taken that morning by the ship Carinthia at sea showed that the storm was a full-blown hurricane. The Bermuda High was further north than its usual positioning in September and would draw the hurricane northward. A second parallel, high pressure front hung to the west over the Alleghenies and between a valley of low pressure whose moisture, steam bath humidity had over the last four days put the Northeast under tropical conditions. The low-pressure valley was a beckoning siren call to the hurricane acting like a passageway toward southern New England between the high-pressure fronts blocking its lateral movement to the east or west. His veteran counterparts could not believe what was in front of their opened eyes letting their experience and precedent trump the foretelling signs of imminent danger. They misguidedly relied on their interpretation of the history of New England’s past 300-years in that it had only endured a smattering of large hurricanes. This belief was only partially true, given the litany of past storms hitting the region. They collectively asked: “Why should matters be different today when a major storm as intense had not struck New England in over a century?” No one in 1938 but an astrologist steeped in divining horoscopes or a gypsy fortune teller practicing quackery would believe that the new Moon just days away coinciding with the equinox might influence the immediate track of the approaching storm. Who would think it even now in 2018?The Sun and Moon’s influence over atmospheric tides might be a possible mechanism to explain any definitive connection to hurricanes. Subtle influences perhaps akin more to the hand that moves the chess pieces as a component of a chess masters overall game, skill and tactics. Not an input that alone is usually noticed, neither means much in isolation nor reflects the mastery of his/her game knowledge--- but necessary for play. At present the study of atmospheric tidal forces in weather development and how they affect more direct weather like the influences is minimal. The water cycle, expansive regional air masses, colliding weather fronts, seasonal changes in sunlight and temperature, the prevailing winds at distinct latitudes and global wind patterns are some examples of the prime movers. How do local changes in the atmospheric tidal flows affect them? Ocean tides can be predicted by studying the gravitational effects of the Moon and Sun and recording the nuances on the tidal flow caused by local conditions. Long range weather conditions are never possible because even if one have seemingly perfect information about current conditions even the most imperceptible errors will grow in time to make distant projections grossly inaccurate. Little progressions or discrepancies over the course of time can make a big-difference; the exponential growth of errors in a chaotic system eventually overwhelms even the most pinpoint accurate original assessment. For weather, a forecasting horizon beyond a week or two is not credible. The ocean tides, the elliptical path of a reappearing comet, the timing of equinoxes, solstices and eclipses are strongly periodic and predictable because there is no mushrooming from minute disturbances into major forecasting blunders. Chaotic systems like the weather being non-linear are composed of a myriad number of interacting parts and as such are susceptible to Lorenz’s butterfly effect; such systems are both non-periodic unlike a metronome and deterministic where later states evolve from earlier ones governed by fixed, prescribed laws. Chaotic systems are predictable if only over the short-term horizon because many are intrinsically deterministic. One cannot sufficiently study what is dismissed out of hand, awareness of potential causes of a danger is a prerequisite to becoming appropriately beware and cautious, no stone nor pebble should be left unturned when seeking answers to the cataclysmic forces in Nature such as a hurricane. No nearby star nor overhead moon in the night skies above should go unstudied as a possible determinant of such destructive natural phenomenon no matter how farfetched the connection may seem at first. For the smallest flap of a wing may evolve into the stiffest of breezes in a world with our sky and heavens above!There is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries.William Shakespeare, Julius CaesarBy Robert A. Saritelli July 27, 2018 Full MoonReferences:Scotti, R.A. Sudden Sea: The Great Hurricane of 1938. Boston-New York-London. Little, Brown & Co. 2003.Miles, K Super Storm: Nine days Inside Hurricane Sandy. Penguin Group NY, NY 2014.Strogatz, S. Chaos: Course Guide Book. The Great Courses Chantilly, VA 2008.Hall, Kristen C: The Angel Gabriel & the Great Storm of 1635. Blog 1992-2012Naked History: The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635Wikipedia: TidesWikipedia: The Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635Wikipedia: List of New York HurricanesWikipedia: The 1869 Atlantic Hurricane SeasonMoonpage CalculatorScientific American: Does the moon have a tidal effect on the atmosphere as well as the oceans? August 7, 2006.Astronomy-beta blog: Why are tides biggest during equinoxes? Stack Exchange.Lipman, D.: Franklin’s Storm: How Benjamin Franklin discovered how storms move. The Washington Post. Oct. 19, 2011.New England Today Living: Worst Hurricanes in New England History. Yankee magazine. 08/2017Connecticut State Library: Colonial Records & Topics: 1752 Calendar Change. Blog 6/22/2018.Byrd, D. Tides and the pull of the Moon and Sun. Earthsky. 01/31/2018.Mosher, D. Business Insider: The Moon’s gravity does not fully explain how ocean tides work. 06/06/2017.Web Smart Media & Weather & Climate: Factors that Influence Weather 2018.Reilly, M. Discovery News. Lunar cycle affects cyclone strength. ABC Science. 03/09/2009.The Science Guys: How does gravity affect the wind? Dept. of Physics. Union University. Jackson, TN. 10/2001. ................
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