PDF Stock Guide Spring 2017 - MarketSmith | Stock Research ...
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Spring Stock Guide // 2017 Q2
We're excited to share some new changes to the MarketSmith Stock Guide.
We surveyed our customers and asked what they found useful and what they'd like to see in future issues. Overwhelmingly, customers asked how other MarketSmith users discover new stock ideas. They wanted more screens, previews of new features, and ongoing tips and information to improve their investing research.
We decided to focus this edition completely on customer success stories and asked one of our favorite MarketSmith users to help tell them. Amy Smith, IBD Market Commentator and author of How to Make Money in Stocks Success Stories, talked with three MarketSmith users about their recent stock successes and the screening criteria they use to surface winning stocks.
Amy will be a permanent addition to our Stock Guide content team and will be sharing more success stories from MarketSmith users. We hope you learn from their stories so you can find greater investing success.
As always, if you have any questions or comments about your investing research or any MarketSmith features, please call one of our product coaches at (800) 831-2525 or email us at reachus@. We're here to help you make more money in the market.
Best Returns,
The MarketSmith Team
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// 2017 Q2 l Market Charts
S & P 500 INDEX
CLOSE 2328.95
S&P 500 Index
2400.98
2410
2360
2193.81
2277.53 2233.62
2322.25
50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
2310 2260
2210
2111.05
2120.55
2119.12
2083.79
200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
2160 2110 2060
2025.91
1991.68 DAILY VOLUME AND 50-DAY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME LINE
15 29 13 27 10 24 8
MAY
JUN
JUL
22 5 AUG
19 2
16
SEP
30 14 OCT
28 11 NOV
25 9 DEC
2010
23 6
20 3
JAN 2017
FEB
17 3
17
MAR
31 14 APR
2.3 B 1.4 B 800 M 450 M
NASDAQ COMPOSITE
CLOSE 5805.15
NASDAQ Composite
5936.39
5950
5850
5342.88
5371.89
5769.39
50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
5750 5650 5550 5450 5350
5250
4969.32
4980.14
5097.80
5034.41
200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE
5150 5050 4950
4850
4750
4678.38
4650
4574.25 DAILY VOLUME AND 50-DAY AVERAGE DAILY VOLUME LINE
4550 3.3 B
15 29 13 27 10 24 8
MAY
JUN
JUL
22 5 AUG
19 2
16
SEP
30 14 OCT
28 11 NOV
25 9 DEC
23 6
20 3
JAN 2017
FEB
17 3
17
MAR
31 14 APR
1.9 B 1.3 B 800 M
2
Table of Contents
Market Charts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Customer Success Story - Abe Christensen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 29/29 Earnings Expectation* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Lam Research Corp (LRCX). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Coherent Inc (COHR). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Installed Building Prod (IBP). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Ultratech Inc (UTEK). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Northeast Bancorp (NBN). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 Customer Success Story - Lee Tanner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Accelerating Growth*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Coherent Inc (COHR). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Nanometrics Inc (NANO). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 D R Horton Inc (DHI). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Nvidia Corp (NVDA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 M K S Instruments Inc (MKSI). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Customer Success Story - Mike Zimmerman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 100% Volume Increase* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 MiMedx Group Inc (MDXG). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 China Cord Blood Corp (CO) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Axovant Sciences Ltd (AXON). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Conatus Pharmaceuticals (CNAT). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Mimecast Limited (MIME) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 MarketSmith Features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on April 13, 2017.
3
// 2017 Q2 l Success Stories
Customer Success Story: ABE CHRISTENSEN
Apple's Low Composite Rating Inspired This Investor's Winning Screen
Abe Christensen is one of the IBD Meetup Leaders from Sausalito, California and has used MarketSmith since it launched in September 2010. Abe has been an avid investor for many years, using IBD and Daily Graphs prior to MarketSmith.
Abe has always looked for new, reliable data points to help him find solid growth stocks. After trying a variety of screening criteria, Abe's success finding market winners really picked up when he added these parameters:
? Composite Rating of 99 ? Using MarketSmith's Pattern Recognition, stocks near
a pivot in a first or second stage base ? Relative strength line in new high ground ahead of the
price
Always looking to improve his results, Abe was inspired to buy Apple's powerful breakout in 2004. With a Composite Rating at a paltry 57, Abe created a screen that would capture a stock that didn't necessarily have a high Composite Rating but still had great potential.
After several screening iterations, Abe developed the 29/29 screen. He uses 29% expected EPS growth for the next quarter and 29% expected growth for the next year. To refine the list a bit, Abe also added 20% increase in revenues for the most recent quarter.
In June, 2016, Mobileye had been struggling for several quarters and
4
the Composite Rating was lackluster. But it had earnings projections above 29% for the 2nd quarter and for the full year. This earned Mobileye a spot on Abe's watchlist and when it began to rally up off its lows in March/April, 2016, Abe began looking for a proper buy point.
Following a first stage eightweek double bottom base, Mobileye shot up through its 50 DMA on June 17. Volume was 52% greater than average and the RS line tilted up sharply around the 1 o'clock position. Abe bought his full position that day and the next.
Of course, buying is just half the battle. Knowing when to sell a stock and lock in profits is important for successful investing. Abe used a sell rule found in How to Make Money in Stocks, by William O'Neil, "the first short term correction". Using MarketSmith Pattern Recognition to support his decision-making, Abe sold Mobileye on July 28 when it achieved a 20% gain.
_________________________________________________________________________________
"As IBD Founder William O'Neil often said, `Never stop learning."
? Abe Christensen
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on April 13, 2017.
5
29/29 Earnings Expectation
Look for stocks with current and forward guidance of 29%+
Super stocks usually have a high Composite Rating, but there are exceptions. Looking for stocks with strong quarterly earnings as well as expected growth for the coming year, can alert investors to stocks that they might not have on their radar otherwise.
Screen created by Abe Christensen, MarketSmith member since 2002
COMPANY (SYMBOL) Lam Research Corp (LRCX) Coherent Inc (COHR) Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) Installed Building Prod (IBP) Ultratech Inc (UTEK) Northeast Bancorp (NBN)
INDUSTRY GROUP
COMP RATING PAGE
Elec-Semiconductor Equip 99
7
Elec-Scientific/Msrng
99
7
Elec-Semiconductor Equip 99
8
Bldg-Maintenance & Svc
99
8
Elec-Semiconductor Equip 99
9
Banks-Northeast
99
9
Visit learn/stockguide to load the criteria for this and other Stock Guide screens directly into your MarketSmith screener.
*All screen results are computer-generated and were run on April 13, 2017. This screen can also be found in the community section of .
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