Mrs. Sapp
How Old is the Oldest Person You Know?28 May 2013, 9:00 amThe Prudential commercial that aired during Super Bowl 47 features what Steven Strogatz calls the most viewed histogram of all time.According to the commercial people were asked the age of the oldest person they know, and their answers were plotted. ?The resulting histogram is somewhat “normal” looking, and the average age is in the low 90s.The commercial’s message is clear: ?“Look at how old people get! ?You need to be better prepared for your retirement! ?Come see a Prudential representative today.”This is a good example of the subtle ways mathematics can be used to manipulate the opinions of the quantitatively unsophisticated.The above histogram is intentionally designed to mislead viewers into thinking they may be significantly unprepared for retirement.??The average life expectancy in the US is around 78 years, but this number may not be shocking enough for advertising purposes.? So instead of?life expectancy, Prudential used?age of the oldest person you know, a data set whose average is about 15 years higher.Showing a histogram that suggests people are likely to live into their 90s might motivate some viewers to head down to their local Prudential office, worried that they aren’t properly prepared for retirement.? But the data on display here isn’t really relevant, and the difference is so subtle that most people won’t notice the distinction.? In reality, the age of the oldest person you know has very little to do with how long you will live.Imagine asking each member of a large group to name the salary of the highest-paid person they know. ?The average of these responses, the average?highest-known-salary,?will almost certainly be much higher than the?average salary of the people in the group. ?It would be ridiculous to try to estimate the average salary of the group by looking at the average highest-known-salary, but in a sense, that is exactly what Prudential is doing in this commercial.The fact that they are doing it intentionally to further their interests provides yet another example of the vital need for quantitative literacy in today’s world.Statistical ReasoningName ________________________Article Questions“How Old Is The Oldest Person You Know”Read the article. Look over the sample question and the sample answers. Sample Question: When did the commercial mentioned in the article appear on television?Sample Bad Answer: during the Super BowlExplanation: That is not even a sentence!!!Sample Bad Answer: It appeared during the Super BowlExplanation: That is a sentence but it is much better to give more detail to your answer than by just saying “it.”Sample Bad Answer: the commercial mentioned in artical were on durin tha SuPeR bOwLExplanation: Oh my, this answer has numerous areas for improvement. To start with, a sentence begins with a capital letter. Also, the word is “article” not “article” and it would be “was on” not “were on” and the word “the” is missing before the word “article” and “durin” needs a g on the end and it’s “the” not “tha” and please do not be one of those people who changes back and forth between capital and lower case. Oh, and one more thing—there needs to be a period at the end of the sentence. (Note: We know that nobody will write a sentence as bad as that one but wanted to show you some of the errors that people sometimes make.)Sample Good Answer: The commercial mentioned in the article appeared on television during Super Bowl 47Explanation: Notice how the sentence re-states the question at the beginning. Also, the sentence starts with a capital letter and ends in a period and all the words are spelled correctly.Now it’s your turn to answer the 8 questions below. Of course, we expect all of your answers to be modeled after the sample good answer provided above. Choosing not to do so will hurt your grade. 1. What kind of business is Prudential?2. What data was collected and displayed on the histogram pictured in the article?3. Describe the histogram pictured in the article.4. What do you think the author of the article means by the term “quantitatively unsophisticated”?5. What do you think the term “life expectancy” means?6. The author of the article states the histogram is made to mislead you. How does the histogram mislead?7. The average US life expectancy is said to be about 78 years. a) Name one country that you believe has a higher life expectancy than the US and state why you think it has a higher life expectancy.b) Name one country that you believe has a lower life expectancy than the US and state why you think it has a lower life expectancy.8. What does this article teach you about the need for quantitative literacy? ................
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