Qatar Economic Outlook 2020-2022

Qatar Economic Outlook 2020 ? 2022

August 2020 i

Qatar Economic Outlook 2020 - 2022

Copyright (2020) of the Planning and Statistics Authority in the State of Qatar Date of publication August 2020.

Note: The previous issues of the Qatar Economic Outlook report have been renumbered from 1 to 11 number (11) so that this issue number is (12).

- Qatar Economic Outlook Report 2011 - 2012 October 2011 No. (1) - Qatar Economic Outlook Report 2012 - 2013 June 2012 (2) - Qatar Economic Outlook Report 2012 - 2013 Updated December 2012 No. (3) - Qatar Economic Outlook Report 2013 - 2014 June 2013 No. (4) - Qatar Economic Outlook Report 2013 - 2014 Updated December 2013 No. (5) - Qatar Economic Outlook Report 2014 - 2015 June 2014 No. (6) - Qatar Economic Outlook Report 2014 - 2016 Updated December 2014 No. (7) - Qatar Economic Outlook Report 2015 - 2017 June 2015 No. (8) - Qatar Economic Outlook Report 2015 - 2017 Updated December 2015 No. (9) - Qatar Economic Outlook Report 2016 - 2018 June 2016 No. (10) - Qatar Economic Outlook Report 2018 - 2020 December 2018 No. (11)

The numbers from 1 to 4 were published on behalf of the General Secretariat for Development Planning. The numbers 5-10 were issued under the name of the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics. The number 11 and the current issue (12) are issued under the name of the Planning and Statistics Authority of the State of Qatar

The content of this report may be reproduced free of charge for non-commercial purposes provided that reference is made to copyright holders.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this report reflect the professional evaluation of the Planning and Statistics Authority staff, and do not necessarily represent the official views of the PSA or the State of Qatar. In spite of all efforts to ensure accuracy in all data and information, the PSA shall not be liable for any errors in the sources or in the transmission of the data. It should also be noted that the latest data in the report date back to August 2020.

For more information: please contact us on Tel: 44958888 or email: info@.qa, or PO Box: 1855, Doha Tower, Doha, Qatar. Reports are published at .qa.

Preparation team: Under the supervision of Noora Nasser Almerekhi, Director of Strategic Planning Department (SPD), the report, was authored and edited by Dr. Mohammed Alsabbry in both Arabic and English. Dr. Issa Ibrahim and Dr. Hasan Omari reviewed the Arabic version, while Dr. Lenard Milich reviewed the English version. Hissa Alassiry provided administrative support and collected data; Mohamed Elsharqawy & Ziad Naasani provided translation support, while Osama Almanasir helped in preparing the report for publication.

ii

Introduction The Planning and Statistics Authority (PSA) is pleased to issue Qatar's Economic Outlook Report 2020-2022 ? Issue No. 12 - in which it reviews the developments of the national economy for the past two years 2018-2019, and analyzes the current situation in view of the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic during the first half of 2020. This issue also provides a foresight of future prospects for the period 2020-2022, according to consensual forecasts issued by the PSA, international research centers, institutions, and banks.

Three years have already passed since the start of the economic blockade on the State of Qatar in June 2017, during which the national economy demonstrated its resilience and ability to overcome the challenges of the blockade in a short period of time. Thanks to effective economic policies, the negative effects of a number of international variables were overcome, mainly: the volatility of global oil and gas prices, the repercussions of the trade war between the United States and China and the resulting slowdown in the growth of the economies of major industrial countries that led to a slowdown in demand for hydrocarbon products in those countries that have a commercial relationship with Qatar. The national economy has also adapted to the changes in its production structure, such as the low contribution of the construction sector in favor of increasing the contribution of the services sector, and the stability of the productivity of the oil and gas sector (hydrocarbons) as well as the manufacturing sector.

In 2018, the real GDP grew by 1.5%, and its growth rate stabilized by a negative 0.2% in 2019, due to a decrease in the production of the hydrocarbon sector by about negative 1.8%, which exceeded the positive growth achieved in (non-hydrocarbon) sectors by 1.3%. The contribution of the construction sector in the GDP growth decreased by 0.22 percentage point, as a result of the completion of most infrastructure projects, particularly those related to hosting the 2022 World Cup. It is clear that the spread of Covid-19 virus during the first half

Qatar Economic Outlook 2020 - 2022

of 2020 has led to a major economic recession all over the world. Its impact has been more severe on the oil and gas exporting countries as it coincides with the drop in global oil prices.

Despite the atmosphere of uncertainty regarding the depth and continuity of the influence of Covid19 on the economies of the world, there are signs that its impact may diminish during the second half of 2020. Accordingly, a few research centers, institutions and international banks expect that the average rate of growth of Qatar's GDP will decline by the end of 2020 by approximately negative 3.1%, with a minimum negative of 2.2% and a maximum negative at 4.3%. That is, while the PSA expects that the growth rate will decline by about 2.6%, the worst possible scenario is the one projected by the IMF, i.e., that it will decline by as much as negative 4.3%. The International Monetary Fund expects that it is possible that economic activities by the end of 2020 will not yet return to the level that they were before Covid-19, even though measures to ease restrictions of containment of the virus in Qatar gradually started from mid-June and are scheduled to end in early September 2020.

The process of preparing this Economic Outlook Report is primarily based on official data issued by various government agencies. We would like to extend our sincere thanks to all those who contributed in providing statistical data and economic information, and anticipate that this report will provide additional information on the trajectory of the development of Qatar's economy. Thanks are also extended to the PSA preparation team.

H.E. Dr. Saleh Al Nabit President Planning and Statistics Authority

August 2020

iii

Qatar Economic Outlook 2020 - 2022

Table of Contents

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................iii Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................................................iv

Part-1: Table of Tables................................................................................................................................................v Part-2: Table of Tables...............................................................................................................................................vi Part-1: Table of Boxes................................................................................................................................................vi Part-2: Table of Boxes................................................................................................................................................vi Part-2: Table of Figures..............................................................................................................................................vi PART 1: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2020 -2022 ............................................................................................................ 1 World and Regional Economic Outlook..................................................................................................................... 1 World Bank Prospects ............................................................................................................................................... 2 IMF Forecast .............................................................................................................................................................. 3 Qatar's Economic Outlook......................................................................................................................................... 3 An International Consensus Forecast for Qatar Economy ........................................................................................ 4 Macroeconomic Indicators Forecasts for the State of Qatar .................................................................................... 6 Fiscal Balance and the Current Account .................................................................................................................... 8 PART 2: ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE 2018-2019 ................................................................................................. 13 Summary.................................................................................................................................................................. 13 Economic Progress................................................................................................................................................... 15 GDP by the Expenditure Approach.......................................................................................................................... 16 Potential to Diversify Economic Activities ............................................................................................................... 18

The Services Sector.............................................................................................................................................. 21 Construction ........................................................................................................................................................ 23 Utilities of Electricity and Water.......................................................................................................................... 23 Manufacturing ..................................................................................................................................................... 26 Economics of the Labor Force and Population........................................................................................................ 27 Prices ....................................................................................................................................................................... 30 Consumer Price Index .......................................................................................................................................... 30 Producer Price Index............................................................................................................................................ 33 Asset Markets: Stocks and Real Estate .................................................................................................................... 35 Comparison of the QSE to the GCC Stock Markets ............................................................................................. 36 Stock Markets in Emerging Countries ............................................................................................................ 37 Real Estate Markets ........................................................................................................................................... 38 Financial and Monetary Sector................................................................................................................................ 39 Development Role of the Banking System .......................................................................................................... 39

iv

Qatar Economic Outlook 2020 - 2022

Distribution of Banks' Assets & Liabilities............................................................................................................ 40 Monetary Policy....................................................................................................................................................... 42

Monetary Policy Tools ......................................................................................................................................... 42 Inter-Bank Interest Rates..................................................................................................................................... 43 Liquidity and Factors Affecting It............................................................................................................................. 45 Sources of Domestic Liquidity ............................................................................................................................. 45 Uses of Domestic Liquidity .................................................................................................................................. 46 The Monetary Base (Reserves) ................................................................................................................................ 47 The QCB's Role in Confronting the Blockade........................................................................................................... 49 Foreign Currency Reserves and Liquidity ................................................................................................................ 51 Trend of Deposits Development.............................................................................................................................. 52 Trend of Credits Development ................................................................................................................................ 53 Public and Private Sectors Accounts ....................................................................................................................... 54 The Economic Role of the Finance and Insurance Sector........................................................................................ 55 Public Debt................................................................................................................................................................... 56 Public Finance .............................................................................................................................................................. 58 Fiscal Balance........................................................................................................................................................... 59 Public Revenues....................................................................................................................................................... 59 Public Expenditures ................................................................................................................................................. 60 Balance of Payments and Foreign Trade ..................................................................................................................... 62 Overall BOP.............................................................................................................................................................. 62 Current Account ...................................................................................................................................................... 62 Financial Account..................................................................................................................................................... 63 Foreign Direct Investments ................................................................................................................................. 64 Foreign Portfolio Investments ............................................................................................................................. 65 Other Foreign Investments.................................................................................................................................. 66 Foreign Merchandise Trade..................................................................................................................................... 66 Size of Foreign Trade ........................................................................................................................................... 66 Trade Partners ..................................................................................................................................................... 68 Appendix: Economic and Financial Terms.............................................................................................................. 71

Part-1: Table of Tables

Table 1-1: World Economic Prospects, According to the World Bank .......................................................................... 1 Table 1-2: GDP for Middle Eastern Countries ............................................................................................................... 2 Table 1-3: The World Economic Outlook, According to the IMF................................................................................... 3 Table 1-4: An International Consensus Forecast of Qatar Economy............................................................................. 5 Table 1-5: Qatar's Macroeconomic Outlook 2020 - 2022 ............................................................................................. 7

v

 ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download