Tflhs.weebly.com



Julia Galef -- So I want to introduce you to a concept known as the sunk cost fallacy. Imagine that you're going to the store and you're halfway there when you realize, "Oh wait, the store is actually closed today." But you figure, "Well, I've already come ten blocks. I might as well just go all the way to the store, you know, so that my ten blocks of walking won't have been wasted. Well, this is a transparently silly way to reason and I doubt that any of us would actually go all the way to a store that we knew was closed just because we'd already gone ten blocks.1. What is the situation she described?But this pattern of thinking is actually surprisingly common in scenarios that are a little bit less obvious than the store example. So, say you're in a career and it's becoming more and more clear to you that this isn't actually a fulfilling career for you. You'd probably be happier somewhere else. But you figure I'll just stick with it because I don't want my past ten years of effort and time and money to have been wasted. So the time and money and effort and whatever else you've already spent is what we call the sunk cost. It's gone no matter what you do going forward. And now you're just trying to decide given that I've already spent that money or time or whatever, what choice is going to produce the best outcome for my future.2. What is the pattern in thinking she is talking about?And the sunk cost fallacy then means making a choice not based on what outcome you think is going to be the best going forward but instead based on a desire not to see your past investment go to waste.Julia Galef -- So I want to introduce you to a concept known as the sunk cost fallacy. Imagine that you're going to the store and you're halfway there when you realize, "Oh wait, the store is actually closed today." But you figure, "Well, I've already come ten blocks. I might as well just go all the way to the store, you know, so that my ten blocks of walking won't have been wasted. Well, this is a transparently silly way to reason and I doubt that any of us would actually go all the way to a store that we knew was closed just because we'd already gone ten blocks.1. What is the situation she described?But this pattern of thinking is actually surprisingly common in scenarios that are a little bit less obvious than the store example. So, say you're in a career and it's becoming more and more clear to you that this isn't actually a fulfilling career for you. You'd probably be happier somewhere else. But you figure I'll just stick with it because I don't want my past ten years of effort and time and money to have been wasted. So the time and money and effort and whatever else you've already spent is what we call the sunk cost. It's gone no matter what you do going forward. And now you're just trying to decide given that I've already spent that money or time or whatever, what choice is going to produce the best outcome for my future.2. What is the pattern in thinking she is talking about?And the sunk cost fallacy then means making a choice not based on what outcome you think is going to be the best going forward but instead based on a desire not to see your past investment go to waste.3. What is the problem with the sunk cost fallacy?Once you start paying attention to the sunk cost fallacy you'll probably notice at least a few things that you would like to be doing differently. And maybe those will be small scale things like, in my case, I now am much more willing to just abandon a book if a hundred pages in I conclude that I'm not enjoying it and I'm, you know, not getting any value out of it rather than trudging through the remaining 200-300 pages of the book just because I don't want, you know, my past investment of a hundred pages, the time that I spent reading those hundred pages to go to waste.4. So, should Mr. Ra finish reading his book?And you might notice some large things, too. For example, I was in a Ph.D. program and started realizing, "Gee, this really isn't the field for me." And you know, it's a shame that I have spent the last several years preparing for and working in this Ph.D. program but I genuinely predict going forward that I'd be happier if I switched to another field. And sometimes it really does take time to fully acknowledge to yourself that you don't have any good reason to stick with the job or Ph.D. or project that you've been working on so long because sunk costs are painful. But at least having the sunk cost fallacy on your radar means that you have the opportunity at least to push past that and make the choice that instead will lead to the better outcomes for your future.5. Is it easy to change our minds about things like this?3. What is the problem with the sunk cost fallacy?Once you start paying attention to the sunk cost fallacy you'll probably notice at least a few things that you would like to be doing differently. And maybe those will be small scale things like, in my case, I now am much more willing to just abandon a book if a hundred pages in I conclude that I'm not enjoying it and I'm, you know, not getting any value out of it rather than trudging through the remaining 200-300 pages of the book just because I don't want, you know, my past investment of a hundred pages, the time that I spent reading those hundred pages to go to waste.4. So, should Mr. Ra finish reading his book?And you might notice some large things, too. For example, I was in a Ph.D. program and started realizing, "Gee, this really isn't the field for me." And you know, it's a shame that I have spent the last several years preparing for and working in this Ph.D. program but I genuinely predict going forward that I'd be happier if I switched to another field. And sometimes it really does take time to fully acknowledge to yourself that you don't have any good reason to stick with the job or Ph.D. or project that you've been working on so long because sunk costs are painful. But at least having the sunk cost fallacy on your radar means that you have the opportunity at least to push past that and make the choice that instead will lead to the better outcomes for your future.5. Is it easy to change our minds about things like this?Burden of Proof - QuestionsQuestion 1: What is the difference between the burden of proof and shifting the burden of proof?Answer 1: The burden of proof is that the person who makes a claim (says something is true) needs to give evidence/proof for it. Shifting the burden means that someone makes a claim and then says the other person needs to give proof that they are wrong. Ex. ‘You can’t prove X is not true, so it is true.’Question 2: If someone makes a claim, what kind of evidence do they need to give?Answer 2: If it is an ordinary/common claim, they don’t need a lot of evidence. But, extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence. Ex. ‘I have a pet dog’ needs little evidence. ‘I have a pet dragon’ needs a lot of amazing evidence.Question 3: Why is the burden of proof important?Answer 3: If we ignore it, many innocent people cannot prove they did not do crimes and will go to jail. Ignoring it also causes things like Pizzagate. Many people demanded that the innocent restaurant should prove they were not bad, instead of asking the Neo-Nazis to prove their extreme claim. Real people were hurt.Question 4: Except for really ordinary things, is a person’s own experience good evidence that something is true?Answer 4: No. Proof needs real evidence, not just stories.Burden of Proof - QuestionsQuestion 1: What is the difference between the burden of proof and shifting the burden of proof?Answer 1: The burden of proof is that the person who makes a claim (says something is true) needs to give evidence/proof for it. Shifting the burden means that someone makes a claim and then says the other person needs to give proof that they are wrong. Ex. ‘You can’t prove X is not true, so it is true.’Question 2: If someone makes a claim, what kind of evidence do they need to give?Answer 2: If it is an ordinary/common claim, they don’t need a lot of evidence. But, extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence. Ex. ‘I have a pet dog’ needs little evidence. ‘I have a pet dragon’ needs a lot of amazing evidence.Question 3: Why is the burden of proof important?Answer 3: If we ignore it, many innocent people cannot prove they did not do crimes and will go to jail. Ignoring it also causes things like Pizzagate. Many people demanded that the innocent restaurant should prove they were not bad, instead of asking the Neo-Nazis to prove their extreme claim. Real people were hurt.Question 4: Except for really ordinary things, is a person’s own experience good evidence that something is true?Answer 4: No. Proof needs real evidence, not just stories.Burden of Proof - ReminderA: I have an invisible pet dragon.B: I don’t believe you.A: Prove that I don’t.B: I can’t prove that.A: Then you must believe me.Person A made a claim, so he needs to give proof. This is called the burden of proof. The person who makes a claim needs to give proof for it. When A said his friend could not prove him wrong, he was shifting the burden of proof. It is not possible for Person B to prove that A was wrong, which is why the burden of proof is not on B. Also, extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence. If person A said “I have a pet dog,” he doesn’t need to give a lot of evidence. But, a dragon is a special kind of claim, so A would need to give a lot of very good evidence about it.A: You stole my phone.B: No I didn’t.A: Prove that you didn’t.This is why the burden of proof is so important. Person B cannot prove she is innocent. There is nothing she could do, because Person A could just say she is lying. This is what happened with the Pizzagate situation in real life. A Neo-Nazi made a (false) claim about a restaurant, many people said the restaurant needed to prove it wasn’t true instead of asking the Neo-Nazi for proof.Burden of Proof - ReminderA: I have an invisible pet dragon.B: I don’t believe you.A: Prove that I don’t.B: I can’t prove that.A: Then you must believe me.Person A made a claim, so he needs to give proof. This is called the burden of proof. The person who makes a claim needs to give proof for it. When A said his friend could not prove him wrong, he was shifting the burden of proof. It is not possible for Person B to prove that A was wrong, which is why the burden of proof is not on B. Also, extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence. If person A said “I have a pet dog,” he doesn’t need to give a lot of evidence. But, a dragon is a special kind of claim, so A would need to give a lot of very good evidence about it.A: You stole my phone.B: No I didn’t.A: Prove that you didn’t.This is why the burden of proof is so important. Person B cannot prove she is innocent. There is nothing she could do, because Person A could just say she is lying. This is what happened with the Pizzagate situation in real life. A Neo-Nazi made a (false) claim about a restaurant, many people said the restaurant needed to prove it wasn’t true instead of asking the Neo-Nazi for proof.Evaluating Sources - QuestionsQuestion 1: How can you evaluate sources?Answer 1: First, figure out what the original source is (for a specific fact). Many articles give their sources (references/citations) at the bottom. Most of the time, those sources are not the original source so you need to look for the sources they give. We can also use Google to search for the source. Then, look for red flags.Question 2: What are some examples of red flags?Answer 2: A red flag is just a warning or sign that something may be wrong. Examples are: no source information, a source that does not give the same information as the page that mentions it, wrong information, biased information, missing important details, being too general, talking about just one person’s opinion or study, only giving very old information, a conflict of interest in the person who gave the information, no evidence for information/argumentsQuestion 3: Why is evaluating sources important?Answer 3: If no one checks sources, everyone will just repeat the wrong information forever. For example, many websites give the same wrong fact about hippos because no one looks for the original source of that information and just repeats it.Question 4: When is old information a red flag?Answer 4: For something that can change over time, like science, if someone only gives studies from 20+ years ago, it shows that they might be ignoring newer studies.Evaluating Sources - QuestionsQuestion 1: How can you evaluate sources?Answer 1: First, figure out what the original source is (for a specific fact). Many articles give their sources (references/citations) at the bottom. Most of the time, those sources are not the original source so you need to look for the sources they give. We can also use Google to search for the source. Then, look for red flags.Question 2: What are some examples of red flags?Answer 2: A red flag is just a warning or sign that something may be wrong. Examples are: no source information, a source that does not give the same information as the page that mentions it, wrong information, biased information, missing important details, being too general, talking about just one person’s opinion or study, only giving very old information, a conflict of interest in the person who gave the information, no evidence for information/argumentsQuestion 3: Why is evaluating sources important?Answer 3: If no one checks sources, everyone will just repeat the wrong information forever. For example, many websites give the same wrong fact about hippos because no one looks for the original source of that information and just repeats it.Question 4: When is old information a red flag?Answer 4: For something that can change over time, like science, if someone only gives studies from 20+ years ago, it shows that they might be ignoring newer studies.Evaluating Sources - ReminderA source is the place where information comes from. Most people just repeat information without checking its source, which means that most information is wrong. For example, there is an idea that “hippos kill about 3000 people every year.” This fact is repeated on many, many websites. However, it does not have a good source. Most websites do not say where they copied it from. Some websites do give a “source,” but it’s not real. If you read that “source” it doesn’t say that fact anywhere. This is a red flag about the sites that give that “fact.”That is why it is important to evaluate sources, to look for the original source and figure out if it is true. Sometimes, A writes an article about something B wrote, but B saw it on C who heard it from D who learned it from E who copied F who misunderstood G, the person who said it the first time. If we just read A, we will have the wrong idea, so we need to evaluate A’s sources. We need to find G, and then look for red flags.A red flag is a warning/sign something may be wrong.In this example, A gave information that was not what G said, so that is a red flag about A. Maybe A is not trustworthy. G may also have red flags. For example, the original source may be from someone who gets money to promote a certain idea, like Andrew Wakefield who lied and said vaccines caused autism because he could get a lot of money.Evaluating Sources - ReminderA source is the place where information comes from. Most people just repeat information without checking its source, which means that most information is wrong. For example, there is an idea that “hippos kill about 3000 people every year.” This fact is repeated on many, many websites. However, it does not have a good source. Most websites do not say where they copied it from. Some websites do give a “source,” but it’s not real. If you read that “source” it doesn’t say that fact anywhere. This is a red flag about the sites that give that “fact.”That is why it is important to evaluate sources, to look for the original source and figure out if it is true. Sometimes, A writes an article about something B wrote, but B saw it on C who heard it from D who learned it from E who copied F who misunderstood G, the person who said it the first time. If we just read A, we will have the wrong idea, so we need to evaluate A’s sources. We need to find G, and then look for red flags.A red flag is a warning/sign something may be wrong.In this example, A gave information that was not what G said, so that is a red flag about A. Maybe A is not trustworthy. G may also have red flags. For example, the original source may be from someone who gets money to promote a certain idea, like Andrew Wakefield who lied and said vaccines caused autism because he could get a lot of money.Conflict of Interest - QuestionsQuestion 1: What is a conflict of interest?Answer 1: A conflict of interest is when a person has a duty/responsibility (interest) to do one thing, but a personal desire (interest) for something else. These two interests conflict, which means a person may not do their duty well because they are influenced by their other desire.Question 2: What are examples of conflicts of interest that are not about money?Answer 2: We saw examples of scientists and doctors (In Dan Ariely’s TED talk) who wanted to write a paper (do a study) to help their career or help science, so they treated their patients/subjects differently.Question 3: What were Andrew Wakefield’s 2 conflicts of interest?Answer 3: He was paid by lawyers who wanted to sue a vaccine company and he was also making his own vaccine. (If he could “prove” the vaccines were dangerous, the lawyers could get a lot of money in their case and Wakefield could make a lot of money by selling his “safe” vaccine.)Question 4: How can news articles have a conflict of interest?Answer 4: They can be sponsored content: a company may pay someone to write an advertisement that looks exactly like a regular news article on a real news website.Conflict of Interest - QuestionsQuestion 1: What is a conflict of interest?Answer 1: A conflict of interest is when a person has a duty/responsibility (interest) to do one thing, but a personal desire (interest) for something else. These two interests conflict, which means a person may not do their duty well because they are influenced by their other desire.Question 2: What are examples of conflicts of interest that are not about money?Answer 2: We saw examples of scientists and doctors (In Dan Ariely’s TED talk) who wanted to write a paper (do a study) to help their career or help science, so they treated their patients/subjects differently.Question 3: What were Andrew Wakefield’s 2 conflicts of interest?Answer 3: He was paid by lawyers who wanted to sue a vaccine company and he was also making his own vaccine. (If he could “prove” the vaccines were dangerous, the lawyers could get a lot of money in their case and Wakefield could make a lot of money by selling his “safe” vaccine.)Question 4: How can news articles have a conflict of interest?Answer 4: They can be sponsored content: a company may pay someone to write an advertisement that looks exactly like a regular news article on a real news website.Conflict of Interest - ReminderDr. Yi is studying kimchi, but he is paid to do the study by a company that makes kimchi. Because he is a scientist, Dr. Yi wants to do good science and find the real truth without bias. However, the people who pay him want him to show that kimchi is healthy.His interest to do good science and his interest to make money are conflicting. If he does his duty (good science) he may have personal disadvantages. If he does not do his duty (showing what the company wants) he can get personal advantages.A conflict of interest is when someone’s duty/responsibility is different from their personal desire. It is not always about money.Dan Ariely talked about a doctor who wanted him to get tattoos on his face to cover his scar. When he said “no,” the doctor started to insult him. Later, Dan learned that the doctor wanted to publish a paper about the tattoos, so it would help his career. That was the doctor’s conflict of interest: not money, but a benefit for his job.Dan also talked about his own work as a scientist. He was doing a study and one person in his group was making the numbers be different from what he wanted, so he was going to remove that person from his group. But, he realized that would bias his study. Dan’s conflict of interest was that he wanted his study to show what he believed, his COI was his own biases.Conflict of Interest - ReminderDr. Yi is studying kimchi, but he is paid to do the study by a company that makes kimchi. Because he is a scientist, Dr. Yi wants to do good science and find the real truth without bias. However, the people who pay him want him to show that kimchi is healthy.His interest to do good science and his interest to make money are conflicting. If he does his duty (good science) he may have personal disadvantages. If he does not do his duty (showing what the company wants) he can get personal advantages.A conflict of interest is when someone’s duty/responsibility is different from their personal desire. It is not always about money.Dan Ariely talked about a doctor who wanted him to get tattoos on his face to cover his scar. When he said “no,” the doctor started to insult him. Later, Dan learned that the doctor wanted to publish a paper about the tattoos, so it would help his career. That was the doctor’s conflict of interest: not money, but a benefit for his job.Dan also talked about his own work as a scientist. He was doing a study and one person in his group was making the numbers be different from what he wanted, so he was going to remove that person from his group. But, he realized that would bias his study. Dan’s conflict of interest was that he wanted his study to show what he believed, his COI was his own biases.Cognitive Biases - QuestionsQuestion 1: What is a cognitive bias?Answer 1: A thinking habit (tendency to think a certain way) which causes everyone to make specific kinds of thinking errors a lot. Every human has many biases, all the time. Ex. We are biased to believe popular opinions more than unpopular ones.Question 2: Why do cognitive biases exist?Answer 2: Our brains need to think and decide quickly, but there is too much information in the world for us to understand. So, biases are a kind of shortcut that let us act quickly by automatically making general guesses in every part of our thinking process. They exist because of evolution (people who heard a noise, assumed “it’s a tiger,” and ran away, lived more than people who didn’t assume).Question 3: What can we do about our own biases?Answer 3: We cannot get rid of them, prevent them, or reduce them. But, we can understand them and that helps us to recognize when we are wrong and change our minds when reality is different from our beliefs.Question 4: What are the 4 problems that biases solve?Answer 4: There is sooooooo much information in the world. Reality is actually very complicated and confusing. We need to do things quickly. We can’t remember everything.Cognitive Biases - QuestionsQuestion 1: What is a cognitive bias?Answer 1: A thinking habit (tendency to think a certain way) which causes everyone to make specific kinds of thinking errors a lot. Every human has many biases, all the time. Ex. We are biased to believe popular opinions more than unpopular ones.Question 2: Why do cognitive biases exist?Answer 2: Our brains need to think and decide quickly, but there is too much information in the world for us to understand. So, biases are a kind of shortcut that let us act quickly by automatically making general guesses in every part of our thinking process. They exist because of evolution (people who heard a noise, assumed “it’s a tiger,” and ran away, lived more than people who didn’t assume).Question 3: What can we do about our own biases?Answer 3: We cannot get rid of them, prevent them, or reduce them. But, we can understand them and that helps us to recognize when we are wrong and change our minds when reality is different from our beliefs.Question 4: What are the 4 problems that biases solve?Answer 4: There is sooooooo much information in the world. Reality is actually very complicated and confusing. We need to do things quickly. We can’t remember everything.Cognitive Biases - ReminderIt’s pronounced "by-us" or "by-ahs" or "by-iss" (NOT "bee-ass").A bias is a kind of thinking (a thinking habit) where we like some ideas more than others for no good reason or evidence.Biases are the reason why we have science. We cannot understand reality correctly because we have so many biases, so we use science to figure out what is really real. (Science is literally just "getting rid of biases in information to find the truth.") It is not perfect, but the process of science is the best tool we have to do this.Cognitive biases are thinking errors that everyone has. They affect every part of our thinking, and make it impossible for us to understand reality correctly. They exist because there is too much information in the world and we can't understand most of it. They help us to ignore unimportant information, but that also makes many, many mistakes.Biases are a part of how our brains work. We need them to survive. Even if we know about them we cannot prevent them. The reason why we should know about them is: understanding how our brains can go wrong can help us to change our minds when reality is different from our beliefs. Our brains see a LOT of information, and focus on a few small parts. Those parts are confusing, so our brains connect them into a story. That story helps us to make decisions quickly. Those decisions affect how we remember things.Cognitive Biases - ReminderIt’s pronounced "by-us" or "by-ahs" or "by-iss" (NOT "bee-ass").A bias is a kind of thinking (a thinking habit) where we like some ideas more than others for no good reason or evidence.Biases are the reason why we have science. We cannot understand reality correctly because we have so many biases, so we use science to figure out what is really real. (Science is literally just "getting rid of biases in information to find the truth.") It is not perfect, but the process of science is the best tool we have to do this.Cognitive biases are thinking errors that everyone has. They affect every part of our thinking, and make it impossible for us to understand reality correctly. They exist because there is too much information in the world and we can't understand most of it. They help us to ignore unimportant information, but that also makes many, many mistakes.Biases are a part of how our brains work. We need them to survive. Even if we know about them we cannot prevent them. The reason why we should know about them is: understanding how our brains can go wrong can help us to change our minds when reality is different from our beliefs. Our brains see a LOT of information, and focus on a few small parts. Those parts are confusing, so our brains connect them into a story. That story helps us to make decisions quickly. Those decisions affect how we remember things.Logic - QuestionsQuestion 1: What is logic?Answer 1: A system of reasoning (A→B→C) to give proof that is absolutely true. Logic is not about opinions, persuading people, or winning arguments. It is about being very careful to be correct at every part of a thinking process. Good logic means a conclusion will be true 100% of the time, like 2 + 2 is always 4.Question 2: If A always causes B, does that mean that B is always caused by A?Answer 2: No, that is bad logic. When it rains (A), it always causes a wet ground (B). When the ground is wet (B), it may have been caused by something else (C), not just rain (A).Question 3: Why is logic difficult?Answer 3: Our brains have other problems, like biases and very bad memory, which make it hard to think logically. Logic is slow because it means thinking through every step in a situation very carefully, but our brains want to think fast. Thinking logically is hard because it means fighting our mind’s desire to do shortcuts.Question 4: When two things happen around the same time, does that mean they are usually related?Answer 4: No. When we see a connection between things because they happen close together, we are thinking with the cognitive bias called Illusory Correlation.Logic - QuestionsQuestion 1: What is logic?Answer 1: A system of reasoning (A→B→C) to give proof that is absolutely true. Logic is not about opinions, persuading people, or winning arguments. It is about being very careful to be correct at every part of a thinking process. Good logic means a conclusion will be true 100% of the time, like 2 + 2 is always 4.Question 2: If A always causes B, does that mean that B is always caused by A?Answer 2: No, that is bad logic. When it rains (A), it always causes a wet ground (B). When the ground is wet (B), it may have been caused by something else (C), not just rain (A).Question 3: Why is logic difficult?Answer 3: Our brains have other problems, like biases and very bad memory, which make it hard to think logically. Logic is slow because it means thinking through every step in a situation very carefully, but our brains want to think fast. Thinking logically is hard because it means fighting our mind’s desire to do shortcuts.Question 4: When two things happen around the same time, does that mean they are usually related?Answer 4: No. When we see a connection between things because they happen close together, we are thinking with the cognitive bias called Illusory Correlation.Logic - ReminderP1: If it rains, then the ground will be wet.P2: Tomorrow it will rain.C: Therefore, tomorrow the ground will be wet.If P1 & P2 are correct, the C will always be correct because this example has good logic. Logic is a system of reasoning. It is similar in math because it is totally consistent (1 + 1 = 2, always) and good logic will give the correct answer 100% of the time. Logic is not related to opinions or feelings. There is not “your logic” and “my logic” because there is only one logic. Usually, we use logic wrong because it is very difficult to use correctly, our biases create thinking mistakes like this:P1: If it rains, then the ground will be wet.P2: The ground is wet.C: Therefore, it rained.This is bad logic. If rain always causes wet ground, that doesn’t mean wet ground is always caused by rain. Wet ground may be caused by other things, like a person with a hose.Another problem is that we usually see patterns in things, even if there is no pattern in reality. This means we often think things are related even when they are not. This is called Illusory Correlation.Logic - ReminderP1: If it rains, then the ground will be wet.P2: Tomorrow it will rain.C: Therefore, tomorrow the ground will be wet.If P1 & P2 are correct, the C will always be correct because this example has good logic. Logic is a system of reasoning. It is similar in math because it is totally consistent (1 + 1 = 2, always) and good logic will give the correct answer 100% of the time. Logic is not related to opinions or feelings. There is not “your logic” and “my logic” because there is only one logic. Usually, we use logic wrong because it is very difficult to use correctly, our biases create thinking mistakes like this:P1: If it rains, then the ground will be wet.P2: The ground is wet.C: Therefore, it rained.This is bad logic. If rain always causes wet ground, that doesn’t mean wet ground is always caused by rain. Wet ground may be caused by other things, like a person with a hose.Another problem is that we usually see patterns in things, even if there is no pattern in reality. This means we often think things are related even when they are not. This is called Illusory Correlation.Confirmation Bias - QuestionsQuestion 1: What is confirmation bias?Answer 1: A cognitive bias where we prefer, look for, understand, and remember information that agrees with what we already believe. Different information is ignored and forgotten very easily. Also called myside bias, because we prefer our own side, or belief preservation, because we want to preserve (keep) our beliefs.Question 2: When people learn that they were wrong about something, what do they usually do?Answer 2: Usually, people continue believing what they already believed. When new information is different, people ignore it or think it is not true.Question 3: What are four reasons why confirmation bias makes it difficult to change our minds?Answer 3: We mostly look for information that agrees with us, so we don’t see different ideas very much. We like familiar information, so we ignore others. We forget about different information. We understand our familiar ideas more easily.Question 4: What are three examples of confirmation bias?Answer 4: Koreans believe kimchi can prevent/reduce cancer and ignore research that says it does not. People only read news which talks about a president’s downsides if they don’t like them. Teachers notice how “bad” students behave badly more than “good” students.Confirmation Bias - QuestionsQuestion 1: What is confirmation bias?Answer 1: A cognitive bias where we prefer, look for, understand, and remember information that agrees with what we already believe. Different information is ignored and forgotten very easily. Also called myside bias, because we prefer our own side, or belief preservation, because we want to preserve (keep) our beliefs.Question 2: When people learn that they were wrong about something, what do they usually do?Answer 2: Usually, people continue believing what they already believed. When new information is different, people ignore it or think it is not true.Question 3: What are four reasons why confirmation bias makes it difficult to change our minds?Answer 3: We mostly look for information that agrees with us, so we don’t see different ideas very much. We like familiar information, so we ignore others. We forget about different information. We understand our familiar ideas more easily.Question 4: What are three examples of confirmation bias?Answer 4: Koreans believe kimchi can prevent/reduce cancer and ignore research that says it does not. People only read news which talks about a president’s downsides if they don’t like them. Teachers notice how “bad” students behave badly more than “good” students.Confirmation Bias - ReminderStatement: If a card has a vowel (AEIOU) on one side, it must have an even number (2, 4, 6, 8) on the other.If you have these 4 cards, which do you turn over to learn if the statement is correct or not: A, B, 4, 7?Most people want to turn over the card that says 4. However, this can only confirm what we believe, not give new information. If the back of 4 is a vowel, we confirm the statement and think it is true. But, if the back is not a vowel, we learn nothing new. The statement only talks about vowels, not consonants.This is called confirmation bias. People prefer, look for, remember, and understand information that agrees with what we already believe. When we meet information disagrees with our beliefs, we usually ignore it, think it is wrong, or forget about it.Confirmation bias may be the biggest bias that affects every part of our thinking. It also affects other biases. As soon as our brains decide something, it works very hard (without us realizing it) to make sure the world matches our opinion about it. When the world does not actually match, we actually see reality in a wrong way and it is very hard to change our mind to be right.It is also called belief preservation, myside bias, and “remembering the hits and forgetting the misses.” Ex. We think we can always predict when we will get a bad grade on tests. When we are right, we think “I knew it!” When we are wrong, we forget about it. Later, we just remember the “I knew it!” times.Confirmation Bias - ReminderStatement: If a card has a vowel (AEIOU) on one side, it must have an even number (2, 4, 6, 8) on the other.If you have these 4 cards, which do you turn over to learn if the statement is correct or not: A, B, 4, 7?Most people want to turn over the card that says 4. However, this can only confirm what we believe, not give new information. If the back of 4 is a vowel, we confirm the statement and think it is true. But, if the back is not a vowel, we learn nothing new. The statement only talks about vowels, not consonants.This is called confirmation bias. People prefer, look for, remember, and understand information that agrees with what we already believe. When we meet information disagrees with our beliefs, we usually ignore it, think it is wrong, or forget about it.Confirmation bias may be the biggest bias that affects every part of our thinking. It also affects other biases. As soon as our brains decide something, it works very hard (without us realizing it) to make sure the world matches our opinion about it. When the world does not actually match, we actually see reality in a wrong way and it is very hard to change our mind to be right.It is also called belief preservation, myside bias, and “remembering the hits and forgetting the misses.” Ex. We think we can always predict when we will get a bad grade on tests. When we are right, we think “I knew it!” When we are wrong, we forget about it. Later, we just remember the “I knew it!” times.Dunning-Kruger Effect - QuestionsQuestion 1: How well do people know their own knowledge?Answer 1: Not well at all. If we don’t know something, we don’t know that we don’t know it, so we think that we do know it. Everyone constantly overestimates their knowledge, especially when we have very little knowledge.Question 2: If someone really knows a lot about something, do they understand their knowledge accurately?Answer 2: No, because they are aware that there is a lot of information about that topic, so they can see that their own knowledge is not complete. Real experts tend to underestimate their ability.Question 3: Who is affected by the Dunning-Kruger effect?Answer 3: Everyone. Everyone is smart about some things and stupid about other things. For things we’re stupid about, we don’t know we’re stupid about them and assume we know more than we do. For the few things we’re actually smart about, we see we don’t know a lot and assume that our knowledge is less than reality.Question 4: What are some examples of Dunning-Kruger?Answer 4: A student writes an essay in middle or high school and thinks they know a lot about that topic. A man thinks he knows about women’s rights because he has a mother and sister. A white person thinks they are not racist because they have a black friend.Dunning-Kruger Effect - QuestionsQuestion 1: How well do people know their own knowledge?Answer 1: Not well at all. If we don’t know something, we don’t know that we don’t know it, so we think that we do know it. Everyone constantly overestimates their knowledge, especially when we have very little knowledge.Question 2: If someone really knows a lot about something, do they understand their knowledge accurately?Answer 2: No, because they are aware that there is a lot of information about that topic, so they can see that their own knowledge is not complete. Real experts tend to underestimate their ability.Question 3: Who is affected by the Dunning-Kruger effect?Answer 3: Everyone. Everyone is smart about some things and stupid about other things. For things we’re stupid about, we don’t know we’re stupid about them and assume we know more than we do. For the few things we’re actually smart about, we see we don’t know a lot and assume that our knowledge is less than reality.Question 4: What are some examples of Dunning-Kruger?Answer 4: A student writes an essay in middle or high school and thinks they know a lot about that topic. A man thinks he knows about women’s rights because he has a mother and sister. A white person thinks they are not racist because they have a black friend.Dunning-Kruger Effect - ReminderStupid people are too stupid to know that they are stupid.That is what the Dunning-Kruger effect is. It is a cognitive bias where we overestimate our abilities and knowledge. It is like overconfidence, however it is a little more complicated. When people actually do know a lot, they realize their own knowledge is not complete, and they underestimate themselves. Example:Person A = knowledge/ability is 2/10Person B = knowledge/ability is 8/10A: “I think my knowledge/ability is 8/10.”B: “I think my knowledge/ability is 4/10.”The problem with person A is that he does not know what he does not know and so cannot see his mistakes. Person B’s mistake is that she thinks other people have the same understanding as she does, so she thinks her ability is not high compared to theirs.If anyone ever says “I know enough about X to know what I don’t know,” that is the Dunning-Kruger effect. Or, if someone knows a little bit about something that most people don’t, that person will overestimate their knowledge about it a lot. In 2016 and 2017, the news often used Donald Trump as an example of this as well.Like Shakespeare said: The fool thinks he is wise, but the wise man knows he’s a fool. However, in reality, we are all the fool.Dunning-Kruger Effect - ReminderStupid people are too stupid to know that they are stupid.That is what the Dunning-Kruger effect is. It is a cognitive bias where we overestimate our abilities and knowledge. It is like overconfidence, however it is a little more complicated. When people actually do know a lot, they realize their own knowledge is not complete, and they underestimate themselves. Example:Person A = knowledge/ability is 2/10Person B = knowledge/ability is 8/10A: “I think my knowledge/ability is 8/10.”B: “I think my knowledge/ability is 4/10.”The problem with person A is that he does not know what he does not know and so cannot see his mistakes. Person B’s mistake is that she thinks other people have the same understanding as she does, so she thinks her ability is not high compared to theirs.If anyone ever says “I know enough about X to know what I don’t know,” that is the Dunning-Kruger effect. Or, if someone knows a little bit about something that most people don’t, that person will overestimate their knowledge about it a lot. In 2016 and 2017, the news often used Donald Trump as an example of this as well.Like Shakespeare said: The fool thinks he is wise, but the wise man knows he’s a fool. However, in reality, we are all the fool.Critical Thinking - QuestionsQuestion 1: What does critical thinking mean?Answer 1: Thinking about your thinking while you are thinking to make your thinking better. Critical thinking is a way to think carefully to try to figure out what is really true by avoiding assumptions, looking for our own biases, and using good logic.Question 2: What happens when people don’t think critically?Answer 2: People can get real harm because of not thinking critically. They can waste money on fake products, get very sick because they believed wrong health information, and even die. They can also cause harm to others, like when parents don’t vaccinate their children and their children get very sick and make other children very sick too.Question 3: What is uncritical thinking?Answer 3: Assuming one possibility instead of looking for other possibilities. Not looking for our own biases. Using bad logic. Not changing our minds when reality is different from our beliefs.Question 4: Why is critical thinking important?Answer 4: Not thinking critically can cause terrible harm to ourselves and others. It also means that wrong information grows in society. With good critical thinking, we can get the most accurate idea of reality that we possibly can.Critical Thinking - QuestionsQuestion 1: What does critical thinking mean?Answer 1: Thinking about your thinking while you are thinking to make your thinking better. Critical thinking is a way to think carefully to try to figure out what is really true by avoiding assumptions, looking for our own biases, and using good logic.Question 2: What happens when people don’t think critically?Answer 2: People can get real harm because of not thinking critically. They can waste money on fake products, get very sick because they believed wrong health information, and even die. They can also cause harm to others, like when parents don’t vaccinate their children and their children get very sick and make other children very sick too.Question 3: What is uncritical thinking?Answer 3: Assuming one possibility instead of looking for other possibilities. Not looking for our own biases. Using bad logic. Not changing our minds when reality is different from our beliefs.Question 4: Why is critical thinking important?Answer 4: Not thinking critically can cause terrible harm to ourselves and others. It also means that wrong information grows in society. With good critical thinking, we can get the most accurate idea of reality that we possibly can.Critical Thinking - ReminderT: I should turn off my fan before I go to sleep.CT: How do I know that I should do that?T: I heard that sleeping with a fan on can kill me.CT: How do I know that’s really true? Where did I hear that?T: Many people say this is true.CT: Do I just believe something because I heard it before or because it is popular? Is there good evidence or just bias?Critical thinking means thinking about your thinking while you are thinking to make your thinking better. Like the example above, we question our reasons for thinking the way we do and look for problems in our thinking. If we don’t, we can be very wrong about very important things.Not thinking critically can cause serious harm, like when parents believe false information about vaccine safety and decide not to give their children vaccines. Not only can their children get very sick, but they can make other children sick as well.Another example is the Pizzagate situation. Innocent people were seriously harassed (ex. people called them and said they would kill them) for no reason, because the harassers didn’t think critically about crazy information they heard and just believed it.Thinking critically means thinking about many possibilities instead of just assuming one. Like seeing fans in the same room as dead people, we assume the fan caused the death and ignore the many, many cases of people dying without fans on, and people not dying with fans on.Critical Thinking - ReminderT: I should turn off my fan before I go to sleep.CT: How do I know that I should do that?T: I heard that sleeping with a fan on can kill me.CT: How do I know that’s really true? Where did I hear that?T: Many people say this is true.CT: Do I just believe something because I heard it before or because it is popular? Is there good evidence or just bias?Critical thinking means thinking about your thinking while you are thinking to make your thinking better. Like the example above, we question our reasons for thinking the way we do and look for problems in our thinking. If we don’t, we can be very wrong about very important things.Not thinking critically can cause serious harm, like when parents believe false information about vaccine safety and decide not to give their children vaccines. Not only can their children get very sick, but they can make other children sick as well.Another example is the Pizzagate situation. Innocent people were seriously harassed (ex. people called them and said they would kill them) for no reason, because the harassers didn’t think critically about crazy information they heard and just believed it.Thinking critically means thinking about many possibilities instead of just assuming one. Like seeing fans in the same room as dead people, we assume the fan caused the death and ignore the many, many cases of people dying without fans on, and people not dying with fans on.Memory - QuestionsQuestion 1: How well can we trust our own memory?Answer 1: Not at all. Most of the information we meet is changed by our brains before we even think about it, so we start with ideas that are different from reality. Biases cause our ideas to become more wrong, and memories even completely change over time.Question 2: Are the patterns and meanings we find in everything usually real?Answer 2: No. Our brains automatically see patterns in things even when there is no real pattern, like seeing a face in the clouds. Once we see a pattern, we can’t un-see it. Because our brains are doing this constantly, it means that we are always finding patterns and meanings in everything, but not everything has a meaning.Question 3: If we really try, how well can we pay attention?Answer 3: Not well at all. Whenever scientists test people, they find that people who are trying to pay attention don’t even see really obvious things, like a gorilla walking through a basketball game. Even people who do see the gorilla don’t see really big changes in other videos. We totally miss huge and important information.Question 4: Do we see things accurately?Answer 4: Not at all. Ex. Optical illusions are things where we clearly see something, like differently sized circles, but in reality we are wrong. We cannot change how we see the thing, even when we know it is wrong.Memory - QuestionsQuestion 1: How well can we trust our own memory?Answer 1: Not at all. Most of the information we meet is changed by our brains before we even think about it, so we start with ideas that are different from reality. Biases cause our ideas to become more wrong, and memories even completely change over time.Question 2: Are the patterns and meanings we find in everything usually real?Answer 2: No. Our brains automatically see patterns in things even when there is no real pattern, like seeing a face in the clouds. Once we see a pattern, we can’t un-see it. Because our brains are doing this constantly, it means that we are always finding patterns and meanings in everything, but not everything has a meaning.Question 3: If we really try, how well can we pay attention?Answer 3: Not well at all. Whenever scientists test people, they find that people who are trying to pay attention don’t even see really obvious things, like a gorilla walking through a basketball game. Even people who do see the gorilla don’t see really big changes in other videos. We totally miss huge and important information.Question 4: Do we see things accurately?Answer 4: Not at all. Ex. Optical illusions are things where we clearly see something, like differently sized circles, but in reality we are wrong. We cannot change how we see the thing, even when we know it is wrong.Memory - ReminderOur memory is extremely untrustworthy, because our senses and brains are extremely untrustworthy.We see patterns and meanings that are not real, like seeing a face in the clouds or thinking random numbers are connected. This causes us to remember things that never existed.We also don’t see a lot of real things, even when they are obvious. People don’t see a gorilla walking across a basketball game, or a magician changing everything around him when he does a trick. It is impossible to pay attention to many things at the same time, but there are always many things happening at once in life. So, our memories are missing important information.We also see things incorrectly, like in optical illusions. Even when we know that circles are the same size, we can clearly see (wrongly) that they are not. Certain patterns look like they move when they don’t. This proves that a lot of the information we get from our senses is just incorrect.Then, we have many biases that affect our thinking about information we meet and cause our memories to actually change to match other ideas we have, even if those ideas are totally different from reality.There is even a bias called False Memory, where we fully and clearly remember things that did not happen. Even with things that did happen, memories still completely change over time.Memory - ReminderOur memory is extremely untrustworthy, because our senses and brains are extremely untrustworthy.We see patterns and meanings that are not real, like seeing a face in the clouds or thinking random numbers are connected. This causes us to remember things that never existed.We also don’t see a lot of real things, even when they are obvious. People don’t see a gorilla walking across a basketball game, or a magician changing everything around him when he does a trick. It is impossible to pay attention to many things at the same time, but there are always many things happening at once in life. So, our memories are missing important information.We also see things incorrectly, like in optical illusions. Even when we know that circles are the same size, we can clearly see (wrongly) that they are not. Certain patterns look like they move when they don’t. This proves that a lot of the information we get from our senses is just incorrect.Then, we have many biases that affect our thinking about information we meet and cause our memories to actually change to match other ideas we have, even if those ideas are totally different from reality.There is even a bias called False Memory, where we fully and clearly remember things that did not happen. Even with things that did happen, memories still completely change over time.Burden of ProofEvaluating SourcesConflict of InterestCognitive BiasesLogicConfirmation BiasDunning-KrugerCritical ThinkingMemoryBurden of ProofEvaluating SourcesConflict of InterestCognitive BiasesLogicConfirmation BiasDunning-KrugerCritical ThinkingMemoryBurden of ProofEvaluating SourcesConflict of InterestCognitive BiasesLogicConfirmation BiasDunning-KrugerCritical ThinkingMemoryBurden of ProofEvaluating SourcesConflict of InterestCognitive BiasesLogicConfirmation BiasDunning-KrugerCritical ThinkingMemoryName & Number ______________________________Your topic: ___________________________________Name & Number ______________________________Your topic: ___________________________________Name & Number ______________________________Your topic: ___________________________________Name & Number ______________________________Your topic: ___________________________________ ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download