PDF Singapore Equities The Monthly Digest

Singapore Equities ? The Monthly Digest

June 2019

SGX Research

Singapore is a best performing market after May global sell-off

STI fwd P/E of 13.1x is near -1sd of the LT mean

SG developers trading below -1sd of its LT mean

19.0

1.4

17.0

1.2

15.0

1

0.8 13.0

0.6

11.0 0.4

9.0

0.2

7.0

Jan-08

Jan-10

Jan-12

Jan-14

Jan-16

Jan-18

0

Jan-08

Jan-10

Jan-12

Consensus fwd P/E

Long-term avg.

Historical P/B

+1 S.D.

-1 S.D.

+1 S.D.

Source: Bloomberg, SGX. Data as of 28 Jun 2019. STI consensus forward P/E taken from Bloomberg.

Jan-14

Jan-16

Jan-18

Long-term avg.

-1 S.D.

Market Commentary

Asian equity markets gained in Jun on improved market sentiments, SiMSCI was top performing index. STI and SiMSCI total returns in Jun were at +6.5% (or +8.3% in US$-terms) and +8.4% (or +10.15% in US$-terms) respectively, vs. MSCI ACWI Index's +6.6% (US$ total returns) and outperforming the region with MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index's +5.4% and MSCI AC Asia ex. Japan Index's +6.6%. STI's total returns for 1H19 at +10.5% (or +11.3% in US$-terms), outperforming the region with MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index at +10.8% (US$ total returns) and MSCI AC Asia ex. Japan Index at +10.7%. All sectors generated positive returns in the month. Top performing sectors were Comm. Services (+8.6%), Banks (+8.4%) and IT (+8.1%), refer to page 2.

Institutional investors net bought (+S$363.0m) in Jun, vs. (+S$49.0m) in May. REITs, Comm. Services, Industrials were the top net buy sectors. The top net buy sectors in Jun were REITs (+S$223.1m), Comm. Services (+S$181.2m), and Industrials (+S$33.7m). Top net sell sectors were Financials (-S$92.1m), Consumer Discretionary (-S$28.6m), and Health Care (-S$3.2m). Consumer Staples and Industrials have seen 6 and 3 consecutive months of net buys respectively. Conversely, Financials and Consumer Discretionary saw 7 and 5 consecutive months of net sells.

Singapore private home prices reach 5-year high. Singapore's private property price index rose to 150.5 points in URA's 2Q19 flash estimates, +1.3% q-q (vs. -0.7% in 1Q19) ? peaking in 5 years since 1Q14. Non-landed homes saw price increase of 1.6% q-q, driven by properties in Rest of Central Region (RCR) which increased by 3.0% after registering a decrease of 0.7% in the previous quarter. Landed homes saw price increase of 0.2% q-q and 1.5% y-y. Singapore property developers are trading at 0.6x P/B ratio, below the -1 S.D. of the historical mean.

STI trading at near -1 S.D. consensus forward P/E as growth expectation weakens. Amidst market volatility and a

global slowdown in manufacturing, trade and investment, Singapore's economy expanded 1.2% in 1Q19. MTI and MAS are reviewing the 1.5-2.5% forecast range for 2019's GDP, driven by weaker growth expectations. STI is now trading at c.13.1x consensus forward P/E, near the -1 S.D. of the historical mean, with a dividend yield of 3.8%.

1

Sector Total Returns in Jun 2019 and YTD

Jun 2019

8.6%

8.4%

8.1%

6.3%

5.1%

4.8%

4.3%

3.1%

2.8%

Comm.

Banks

IT

REITs

Real Estate Health Care Consumer Consumer

Energy

Services

Man & Dev.

Staples Discretionary

1.5%

1.2%

1.1%

Utilities

Materials Industrials

6M 2019

28.7%

21.2%

17.2% 16.3%

13.0%

11.5%

9.0%

8.2%

3.5%

3.4%

3.2%

-0.9%

IT

REITs

Comm. Consumer Utilities Real Estate Banks

Energy Health Care Materials Industrials Consumer

Services

Staples

Man & Dev.

Discretionary

Source: Bloomberg, SGX (Jun 2019).

Institutional Fund Flow in Jun 2019

Institutional investors net bought (+S$363.0) in Jun, following a net buy (+S$49.0m) in May. REITs? (+S$223.1m), Comm. Services (+S$181.2m), and Industrials (+S$33.7m) were the top net buy sectors. All sectors generated positive returns in the month.

Singtel tops net buy list for second consecutive month. S-REITs continue to see net buys. Sembcorp Industries defers Indian energy arm listing. Genting Singapore targets Osaka IR bid. Click here to read the fund flow report.

GICS? Sectors1 Institution Net Buy(+) / Sell(-) (S$M) REI Ts ? Communication Services I n d u strials Cons umer Staples Rea l Estate (excl. REITs?) Uti l ities En e rgy Ma teri als Information Technology Hea lth Ca re Cons umer Discretionary Fi nancials Total

Jun '19

+223.1 +181.2 +33.7 +21.1 +21.0

+7.5 +3.3 -1.9 -2.1 -3.2 -28.6 -92.1 +363.0

Top Institution Net Buy (+) Stocks (S$M) Si ngtel Ca pi taLand Commercial Trust Ya ngzijiang Shipbuilding SGX UOB Ca pi taLand Ma pl etree Industrial Trust Keppel Corporation Keppel REIT ST Engi neering

Jun '19 +168.1

Top Institution Net Sell (-) Stocks (S$M)

DBS

+58.6 Sembcorp Industries

+55.9 SIA

+33.2 Genting Singapore

+30.0 OCBC

+25.4 Uni ted Engineers

+25.4 Hongkong Land

+24.7 As cendas REIT

+22.6 Cromwel l European REIT

+19.8 ESR-REIT

Jun '19

-123.3 -42.7 -34.8 -33.6 -33.3 -21.5 -15.9 -8.3 -7.3 -7.2

Source: SGX (Jun 2019). For more fund flow reports, click here. 1Refers to Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS?).2REITs refer to MSCI GICS? Industry - Equity Real Estate Investment. Definition: Institutional fund flows is derived by subtracting retail account flow and MMLP flow from TOTAL ST markets flows. Net buy/sell amount is derived by subtracting total sell amount from total buy amount. Note: Fund flow data for all SGX-listed companies only.

2

Volume Movers in Jun 2019

By Sector - Total Jun Average Volume Traded vs 3 Month Average Volume Traded

10.0% 8.4%

8.0%

REITs

Comm. Services

Energy

-0.9%

Consumer Staples

-1.0%

IT

-2.1%

-11.3% -12.8%

Financials Consumer Materials Discretionary

-18.6% -20.1%

Industrials Health Care

-33.0%

Utilities

-42.3%

Real Estate

Man & Dev.

Top 10 by Stock ? Total Jun Average Volume Traded vs 3 Month Average Volume Traded

Company Cromwell European REIT United Engineers ESR-REIT Frasers Commercial Trust Sembcorp Industries Manulife US REIT Raffles Medical Group Si ngtel Frasers Centrepoint Trust Jardine Strategic

3 Month Avg Vol Traded Last Month Avg Vol Traded Vol Variance Last Price (S$) 1 Year SDAV (S$)

1,818,357

4,239,689

133.2%

0.74

1,503,998

507,463

1,089,612

114.7%

2.58

1,099,442

8,211,989

13,641,457

66.1%

0.52

2,012,778

2,038,192

3,041,142

49.2%

1.67

2,479,463

3,547,578

5,227,084

47.3%

2.41

9,110,598

1,753,028

2,495,479

42.4%

1.17

1,433,629

1,130,751

1,609,626

42.4%

1.04

1,448,767

21,610,340

30,584,602

41.5%

3.50

60,392,351

2,523,004

3,509,686

39.1%

2.60

3,204,458

201,052

277,742

38.1%

51.61

12,104,550

Source: Bloomberg, SGX (Jun 2019). Note: All stocks reported have a minimum SDAV of S$1,000,000. Stocks with IPO Dates within the past 3 Months have been excluded from reporting. 'Vol Variance' is the % variance of the Last Week's Average Volume Traded and 3 Month Average Volume Traded.

Share Buybacks in Jun 2019

25 Companies Conducted Share Buybacks in June. Read more.

Company

OCBC DBS Olam International Keppel REIT Stamford Land Boustead Singapore Global Investments Telechoice International KSH Holdings SGX Singapore Shipping Corporation AEM Holdings Tuan Sing Holdings Koufu Group Jumbo Group GRP Limited CDW Holding Raffles Medical Group Goodland Group Nordic Group Total Share Buybacks in Jun 2019

Total shares bought Total consideration in Cumulative purchased from start Total buyback Cumulative purchased as %

in Jun 2019

Jun 2019 S$

till end of Jun 2019

mandate

of total buyback mandate

2,250,000 500,000

2,437,300 3,350,000 5,368,200 3,298,300 12,331,600 2,600,000 1,100,000

31,900 698,400 200,000 480,000 249,300 411,000 763,000 641,800 100,000 330,000 138,500 37,500,500

24,753,300 12,056,286

4,673,113 4,165,898 2,561,500 2,544,854 1,643,505

573,952 468,220 235,291 200,179 185,124 172,237 170,066 154,196 153,319 117,687 101,151

63,307 39,865 55,135,597

5,030,000 3,100,000 2,547,900 9,740,700 43,346,700 3,298,300 24,610,300 2,600,000 1,100,000

910,748 12,520,200

1,100,000 2,795,000

349,300 503,300 1,707,200 641,800 200,000 330,000 615,600

212,257,935 51,165,438

159,528,593 170,210,715

86,408,798 49,298,483 168,741,864 45,438,718 56,973,564 107,164,240 43,701,979 27,096,300 118,620,496 55,516,300 64,109,130 19,370,161 22,724,200 179,835,340 36,059,491 39,251,910

2.37% 6.06% 1.60% 5.72% 50.16% 6.69% 14.58% 5.72% 1.93% 0.85% 28.65% 4.06% 2.36% 0.63% 0.79% 8.81% 2.82% 0.11% 0.92% 1.57%

Source: Bloomberg, SGX (Jun 2019). Note: Table above only shows the top 20 share buybacks by total consideration amount in Jun 2019.

3

Links to SGX Research Thematic Market Updates

Asia's Healthcare Story

SGX's Asian Family Empires

Five Best-Performing Healthcare Services Stocks Return 15% in YTD Highlights of Foreign Family Empires Listed on SGX

Three Best-Performing Pharmaceutical Stocks Returned 23% in YTD Highlights of Home-Grown Family Empires on SGX

Five Best-Yielding Healthcare Stocks Average 5% Dividend Yield

YTD Performances of Family Empire Plays on SGX

Highlights of Singapore's Healthcare Services Stocks

Dividend Yield Plays Amongst SGX's Family Empire-Linked

Highlights of SGX's Largest, Best-Performing Healthcare Services

Stocks

Stocks

Healthcare Sector's Growth Prospects Draw Fund Flows

China's Belt & Road Initiative

Shift to Services

SGX Stocks Set to Gain From China's Belt & Road Initiative

Highlights of Singapore's Healthcare Services Stocks

SGX's Three Largest Water Plays Averaged 24% Total Return in YTD Highlights of SGX's 10 Largest Transport-Linked Stocks

Five Best-Performing China-Based Plays Avg 41% Total Return in

Liquidity-themed Consumer Sector Index Posts 10% YTD

Jan-Feb

Gain

Highlights of China-Related S-REITs and Developers

Big Utility Stocks Began 2019 with Momentum

FTSE ST China Index's Five Best Performers Avg 18% Total Return in Tourism-Related Stocks Ride Growth in Visitor Arrivals

YTD

Healthcare Sector's Growth Prospects Draw Fund Flows

Interest Rates

Three Best-Performing Office REITs Avg 7% Total Return in 2H18To-Date

ASEAN's Biggest Primary-Listed Stock Began Trading 50 Years Ago Tomorrow

Mapletree REITs Amongst the Most Defensive Stocks in 2018 S-REITs Rank Above Regional Peers in Dividend Yields Singapore's 10 Largest Developers Avg 6% Rebound From 12M

Troughs DBS, OCBC & UOB Avg 25% Net Profit Growth in 9MFY18

Commodities

SGX Oil & Gas Stocks Gained in 3Q18 as Crude Oil Climbed

Five Largest OSV Plays Average 21% Rebound From 12M Lows in 3Q18

Three Largest Agriculture Stocks Averaged 8% Total Return in 3Q18

Thermal Coal Demand Underpinned by Uptick in Asian Consumption

Gold Opportunities in Focus as Bullion Jumps to 10-Week High

To sign up for daily market updates or for more information, please contact research@.

Upcoming Dividends, Rights, and Bonus Issues

Company Chemical Industries ISDN Holdings UMS Holdings SIA Engineering Singapore Post Si ngtel SATS Japan Foods Samurai 2K Aerosol Ban Leong Technologies

Type DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND DIVIDEND

Ex-Date Record Date Date Paid/Payable

Particulars

9-Jul-19 10-Jul-19

18-Jul-19 SGD 0.015 FINAL ONE-TIER TAX

9-Jul-19 10-Jul-19

28-Aug-19 SGD 0.007 FINAL ONE-TIER TAX

10-Jul-19 11-Jul-19

26-Jul-19 SGD 0.005 INTERIM ONE-TIER TAX

24-Jul-19 25-Jul-19

8-Aug-19 SGD 0.08 FINAL ONE-TIER TAX

24-Jul-19 25-Jul-19

7-Aug-19 SGD 0.02 FINAL ONE-TIER TAX

26-Jul-19 29-Jul-19

15-Aug-19 SGD 0.107 FINAL ONE-TIER TAX

29-Jul-19 30-Jul-19

8-Aug-19 SGD 0.13 FINAL ONE-TIER TAX

30-Jul-19 31-Jul-19

16-Aug-19 SGD 0.011 FINAL ONE-TIER TAX

30-Jul-19 31-Jul-19

8-Aug-19 SGD 0.005 FINAL ONE-TIER TAX

31-Jul-19 1-Aug-19

15-Aug-19 SGD 0.01 FINAL ONE-TIER TAX

Source: SGX, upcoming dividends, rights, and bonus issues with ex-dates in the month of Jul 2019. For full list, click here.

4

Indices, Macro Indicators and Currency

Regional & Global Equity Indices

Asia Pacific FTSE Straits Times Index MSCI Singapore Free Index ASX 200 Index FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index Hang Seng Index Hang Seng China Enterprises Index Jakarta SE Composite Index Korea SE KOSPI Index Nikkei 225 Index Shanghai SE Composite Index Shenzhen SE Compostite Index Stock Exchange of Thailand SET Index Other Developed Markets Dow Jones Industrial Average FTSE 100 Index NASDAQ Composite Index S&P 500 Index MSCI Indices MSCI ACWI Index MSCI AC APAC Index MSCI AC Asia Ex. Japan Index

SGX Equity Indices

Selected SGX Indices (Singapore) iEdge SG All Healthcare Index iEdge SG MOE Index iEdge SG MOG Index iEdge SG Real Estate Index iEdge SG S-REIT Index iEdge SG Resources Index

Macro Indicators and Currency

Macro WTI Crude Oil (US$/bbl) Brent Crude Oil (US$/bbl) Gold Spot (US$/oz) Rubber (TSR20) (US$/kg) Baltic Dry Index Singapore Singapore 10Y Govt Bond Yield (%) 1M SIBOR 3M SIBOR USD/SGD SPOT SGD/CNY SPOT SGD/HKD SPOT AUD/SGD SPOT EUR/SGD SPOT

Last 3,322

378 6,619 1,672 28,543 10,882 6,359 2,131 21,276 2,979 1,562 1,730

Last 26,600

7,426 8,006 2,942

Last 523 160 653

Last 1,420

191 122 1,270 1,424 513

Last 58 67 1,410 146 1,354 Current 2.00 1.88 2.00 1.35 5.07 5.77 0.95 1.54

7D 0.0% 0.3% -0.5% -0.6% 0.2% -0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% -0.8% -1.0% 0.8%

7D -0.4% 0.2% -0.3% -0.3%

7D 0.0% 0.5% 0.5%

7D 0.0% -0.5% -0.7% 0.7% 1.4% 0.0%

7D 1.8% 2.1% 0.7% -1.4% 9.3% 3M Prior 2.07 1.83 1.94 -0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% -0.1%

Source: Bloomberg (28 Jun 2019). Price change based on local currency terms. 5

1M 6.5% 8.4% 3.5% 1.3% 6.1% 4.8% 2.4% 4.4% 3.3% 2.8% 2.0% 6.8%

1M 7.2% 3.7% 7.4% 6.9%

1M 6.4% 5.0% 6.1%

1M 3.7% 3.8% 13.0% 6.8% 7.1% 5.5%

1M 9.3% 3.2% 8.0% -4.1% 23.5% 6M Prior 2.09 1.76 1.89 -1.6% 1.1% 1.2% -0.4% 0.2%

YTD 8.2% 10.3% 17.2% -1.1% 10.4% 7.5% 2.6% 4.4% 6.3% 19.4% 23.2% 10.6% YTD 14.0% 10.4% 20.7% 17.3% YTD 14.9% 9.1% 9.4%

YTD 4.1% -6.4% -7.4% 15.4% 18.2% 2.1%

YTD 28.8% 23.7%

9.9% 13.9%

6.5% 9M Prior

2.53 1.52 1.64 -0.7% 0.5% 0.5% -1.1% -1.5%

1YR 2.0% 3.3% 6.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 12.2% -7.9% -4.5% 6.9% 0.4% 8.2% 1YR 9.8% -2.5% 6.7% 8.3% 1YR 4.3% -2.8% -1.2%

1YR -5.5% -34.3% -24.0% 10.3% 18.4% -9.6%

1YR -20.4% -14.5% 12.9%

8.2% 1.9% 12M Prior 2.55 1.40 1.52 -1.1% 4.6% 0.6% -5.5% -2.7%

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