WORLD POPULATION TO 2300 - United Nations

[Pages:254]Social Affairs

Economic &

WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

United Nations

Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division

ST/ESA/SER.A/236

WORLD POPULATION TO 2300

United Nations New York, 2004

The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat is a vital interface between global policies in the economic, social and environmental spheres and national action. The Department works in three main interlinked areas: (i) it compiles, generates and analyses a wide range of economic, social and environmental data and information on which States Members of the United Nations draw to review common problems and take stock of policy options; (ii) it facilitates the negotiations of Member States in many intergovernmental bodies on joint courses of action to address ongoing or emerging global challenges; and (iii) it advises interested Governments on the ways and means of translating policy frameworks developed in United Nations conferences and summits into programmes at the country level and, through technical assistance, helps build national capacities.

NOTE

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

The designations of "more developed regions" and "less developed regions" are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgment about the stage reached by a particular country or area in the development process.

The term "country" as used in the text of this publication also refers, as appropriate, to territories or areas. The present report has been reproduced without formal editing.

ST/ESA/SER.A/236

UNITED NATIONS PUBLICATION Sales No. ____________

ISBN_______________

Copyright ? United Nations 2004 All rights reserved

Printed in United Nations, New York

PREFACE

Every two years the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs' Population Division prepares the official United Nations estimates and projections of world, regional and national population size and growth, and demographic indicators. The results from the most recent set of estimates and projections were published in World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision, a three-volume set issued over the period 2003-2004. The estimates and projections in the 2002 Revision cover the period 19502050.

The United Nations also prepares supplementary world population projections covering a much longer period, referred to as long-range projections. The United Nations previously published long-range projections on six occasions, each being consistent with the population projections of the following revisions of the World Population Prospects: 1968, 1978, 1980, 1990, 1996 and 1998. These publications presented long-range projections for the world and its major areas, and since the 1990 set of projections, the long-range time horizon was until 2150.

The Population Division has adopted two major innovations for this new set of long-range population projections based on the 2002 Revision. For the first time, the long-range projections are made at the national level, that is, for each of the 228 units constituting the world. In addition, the time horizon for the projections is extended to 2300, so as to allow for the eventual stabilization of the population in at least one scenario. In order to address the technical and substantive challenges posed by the preparation of long-range projections at the national level, the Population Division convened two meetings of the Technical Working Group on Long-Range Population Projections at United Nations Headquarters in New York. The purpose of the meetings was to discuss the assumptions, methodology and preliminary results of the national population projections to 2300.

This volume presents the results of the long-range projections, World Population to 2300, and includes a detailed analysis. A series of essays on the issue of long-range projections have also been incorporated in this report, enriching the debate on this important topic. Experts from outside the United Nations, many of whom took part in the technical working group meetings, authored these essays.

The United Nations Population Division is grateful to the National Institute on Aging of the United States of America (NIA) whose grant help support this study. Acknowledgement is also due to Rodolfo A. Bulatao, who assisted the Population Division in the preparation of this report. The Population Division extends its appreciation to all the experts for their suggestions and contributions to the preparation of the long-range projections.

This publication, as well as other population information, may also be accessed on the Population Division world wide web site at . For further information about the long-range projections, please contact the office of Mr. Joseph Chamie, Director, Population Division, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA, tel: 212-963-3179 and fax: 212-963-2147.

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CONTENTS

Page

PREFACE....................................................................................................................................................................... iii EXPLANATORY NOTES .................................................................................................................................................. x

PART ONE. REPORT

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................................................................. 1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................. 3

Chapter I. PROJECTIONS TO 2050.................................................................................................................................... 4

A. World population.................................................................................................................................... 4 B. Major areas.. .......................................................................................................................................... 4 C. Assumptions ........................................................................................................................................... 7 D. Long-range possibilities ......................................................................................................................... 9

II. PROJECTIONS AFTER 2050: LONG-RANGE GROWTH AND DECLINE .................................................................. 10

A. Scenarios ................................................................................................................................................ 10 B. World population.................................................................................................................................... 12 C. More developed and less developed regions .......................................................................................... 17 D. Major areas............................................................................................................................................. 22 E. Africa...................................................................................................................................................... 28 F. Asia ........................................................................................................................................................ 31 G. Latin America and the Caribbean........................................................................................................... 33 H. Oceania................................................................................................................................................... 34 I. Northern America................................................................................................................................... 36 J. Europe .................................................................................................................................................... 37

III. COUNTRY RANKINGS...................................................................................................................................... 41

A. Size......................................................................................................................................................... 41 B. Growth.................................................................................................................................................... 41 C. Fertility ................................................................................................................................................... 50 D. Mortality................................................................................................................................................. 56

IV. POPULATION DENSITY .................................................................................................................................... 62

V. AGEING POPULATIONS.................................................................................................................................... 66

A. Major areas............................................................................................................................................. 66 B. Historical periods ................................................................................................................................... 70 C. Dependency thresholds........................................................................................................................... 73 D. Countries ................................................................................................................................................ 76

VI. CONCLUSION.................................................................................................................................................. 82

A. Consequences ......................................................................................................................................... 82 B. Limitations ............................................................................................................................................. 82 C. The long view......................................................................................................................................... 83

REFERENCES................................................................................................................................................................. 85

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PART TWO. ESSAYS

I. TOWARDS AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE EMOTIONS IN THE POPULAITON OF 2300 Alaka Basu.............................................................................................................................................. 89

II. AN INTERGENERATIONAL RATIONALE FOR FERTILITY ASSUMPTIONS IN LONG-RANGE WORLD POPULATION

PROJECTIONS

Herwig Birg............................................................................................................................................ 99

III. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNITED NATIONS LONG-RANGE POPULATION PROJECTIONS John Caldwell......................................................................................................................................... 112

IV. COMPARING LONG-RANGE GLOBAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS WITH HISTORICAL EXPERIENCE Joel Cohen.............................................................................................................................................. 123

V. WORLD POPULATION IN 2300: A CENTURY TOO FAR? David Coleman....................................................................................................................................... 127

VI. POPULATION FUTURES FOR THE NEXT THREE HUNDRED YEARS: SOFT LANDING OR SURPRISES TO COME? Paul Demeny .......................................................................................................................................... 137

VII. WHY THE WORLD'S POPULATION WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN 9 BILLION IN 2300 Timothy Dyson........................................................................................................................................ 145

VIII. REFLECTIONS ON THE NEXT FEW CENTURIES Fran?ois H?ran ...................................................................................................................................... 151

IX. THE FUTURE OF HUMAN LIFE EXPECTANCY S. Jay Olshansky..................................................................................................................................... 159

X. PROJECTING THE UNKNOWABLE: A PROFESSIONAL EFFORT SURE TO BE MISINTERPRETED Michael Teitelbaum................................................................................................................................ 165

XI. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UNITED NATIONS LONG-RANGE POPULATION PROJECTIONS: CONTINUING

RAPID POPULATION GROWTH

Charles F. Westoff.................................................................................................................................. 169

XII. FORETELLING THE FUTURE John R. Wilmoth ..................................................................................................................................... 174

TABLES

No.

Page

1. Population and average annual rate of change of the world and development groups, estimates and three scenarios: 1950-2300..................................................................................................................................... 14

2. Population, average annual rate of change, and distribution of world population, by major area, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300.................................................................................................................. 22

3. Population by major area and region, estimates and medium scenario: 1950-2300 ...................................... 27 4. Average annual rate of change for 50 year-year periods, by major area and region, estimates and medium

scenario: 1950-2300 ...................................................................................................................................... 28

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