SP 500



Date: 7 December 201500WEEKLY TECHNICAL REPORTWEEKLY TECHNICAL REPORTContents (ctrl+click to follow link):SP 500 ; Top 40 Chart ; Currency ; Charts of Interest ; Relative Rotation Graph ; Scatter Graph ; Sector Analysis ; HYPERLINK \l "_Weekly_Performances" \o "click to go to heading."Weekly PerfomancesWe are back after a short break.SP 500The SP500 is still trading in its sideways trading range set up at the beginning of the year. Currently we are forming a triangle and we could potentially break to the upside, taking us to retest the big 2130 levels. HYPERLINK \l "_top" \o "Go to the top of the document" HomeTop 40 ChartIt seems that the Top40 may see support around the 44000 level. Looking at the AB downward move, the equivalent CD extension reaches the 44000 level.HYPERLINK \l "_top" \o "Go to the top of the document"HomeCURRENCYThe RandIn our last report we mentioned the Rand being in a broadening formation. We are still in there, but we are seeing an ascending triangle forming within the broadening formation. We need a break above the 14.50 level which then points to a potential target of 15 to the US $. But the 14.50 level may hold for now as we are seeing some negative divergence on the MACD.The EuroThe Euro bounced off support and is midway into its former trading range that goes back to the beginning of the year. We are now at the 200, 100 and 50 day moving averages, so we may see some Euro weakness possibly retesting the 1.05 level to the US$ again. HYPERLINK \l "_top" \o "Go to the top of the document" HomeCharts of InterestThe charts we have included are: SBK, NPN and APNStandard Bank has had a torrent time of late and has reached its head and shoulder target when it broke its neckline a few months ago. We are now trading on a potential support at the R120 levels. This level corresponds to resistance levels all the way back to 2012 and 2013. Stand Bank could potentially bounce off these levels.Naspers touched a potential buy area which corresponds to previous resistance levels and an upward trend line. This level is at the R1950. There is also a gap that has opened up at the R2060 that should be closed.Aspen has formed an upward trading channel off its lows and could be entering a buy area off the lower trading band (R311.50) to move up to the upper band (R340).HYPERLINK \l "_top" \o "Go to the top of the document"Home Relative Rotation GraphBelow we have a few sectors relative to the Allshare Index. The sectors are based on the Business Day division of sectors.5359403088640BMat0BMat12458702230755Tele0Tele13865231569403Hlth0Hlth15684502768600Indu0Indu24269702340610Prop0Prop23209251645285Fin0Fin2110740925830CServ0CServ31318201764665CGoods0CGoodsOut-performance of the Allshare came from the consumer goods, property, financial and consumer service sectors. There is much improved momentum in the financial and consumer services sector.Explanation on the RRG:Note that each symbol on the chart is plotted as a dot with a “tail” extending backwards. The tail shows you the history of the symbol's position in the past. Each dot on each symbol's tail represents one period, in this case a week. The large dot at the end of the tail represents the current relative momentum values for that ticker symbol and the colour represents the current quadrant it finds itself in. There are four quadrants on the chart:Leading (Green) - strong relative strength and strong momentumWeakening (Yellow) - strong relative strength but weakening momentumLagging (Red) - weak relative strength and weak momentumImproving (Blue) - weak relative strength but improving momentumTypically, indices progress through the quadrants in a clockwise manner.Interpretation:The longer the tail, the bigger the move and higher the volatility.The further the index is from the benchmark (the cross hairs) the bigger the move in relative performance (up or down)RS-Ratio (relative strength) is more important than RS-MomentumThe rotational patterns are not always perfectly circular and will not always rotate through all four quadrants in a clockwise manner. These are, after all, financial markets driven by fear and greed.In general, a cross from the left half to the right half signals a new uptrend in relative performance. This means RS-Ratio has moved above 200. Conversely, a cross from the right half to the left half signals a new downtrend in relative performance. This means RS-Ratio has moved below 200.The underlying trend-following model that powers RRG includes a lag period, as do all trend-following models. This means there will already be upward movement in the price relative before the RRG line actually crosses into the leading quadrant. Similarly, the price relative will peak and move lower before the RRG line actually crosses into the lagging quadrant.Symbols in the leading quadrant should be on your buy list because they show relative strength. Symbols in the weakening quadrant should be on your watch-list for deterioration. Symbols in the lagging quadrant should be on your avoid list because they show relative weakness. Symbols in the improving quadrant should be on your shopping list as potential buys.RRGs separate the market leaders from the market laggards and therefore great for channeling your attention to those areas of the market that deserve it.Keep in mind that these are relative performance indicators, and there is still a risk that the rotation turns back or even reverses.HYPERLINK \l "_top" \o "Go to the top of the document"HomeSCATTTER GRAPHOur attention is to create a picture of where each stock is technically relative to each other in each of the sectors mentioned in the above Relative Rotation Graph. The technical factors we are using is a 50 day moving average and 14 day RSI. The stock position will highlight their overbought and oversold levels.The coloured dots represent the percentage move over the last week.Consumer Goods:18415002362200MTA0MTA6578602243455PFG0PFG44646851299845BTI0BTI51987451190625SAB0SABBasic Materials:11461752128520IMP0IMP16294102204720AGL0AGL9721851804670BIL0BIL30581602680970MNP0MNP42157651223645MNP0MNP50063401661795SGL0SGL50057051166813HAR0HARIndustrials:11690351890395ADR0ADR7829552090420IPL0IPL40646351371600CGR0CGR53505101195070NPK0NPK4764722966787AFT0AFTHealth Care:13550901804035MDC0MDC17265652265680NTC0NTC39458901251585APN0APN48463201299210ASC0ASCConsumer Services:6464302672715LEW0LEW27793952377440COM0COM15748001800860CLS0CLS9747252038985TSH0TSH39465251329690CSB0CSB50038001400810ADH0ADH5137150910908COH0COHFinancials:14351002419350SBK0SBK9258302176145CML0CML46120051680845INL0INL48025051219200PGR0PGR52790731648142SFN0SFNTelecoms:33794701995170TKG0TKG14935202237740MTN0MTN24599901362075VOD0VOD45446951557337BLU0BLUProperty:17811752380615AWA0AWA11195052000250OCT0OCT10433052357755RDF0RDF42056051395730ROC0ROC48520351233170NEP0NEP5167948900113CPF0CPFHYPERLINK \l "_top" \o "Go to the top of the document"HomeSECTOR ANALYSISPercentage points of various Sectors above or below their various Moving Averages:Two weeks ago:INDEX200 SMA100 SMA50 SMA20 SMABanks-10.66-8.24-5.76-6.59Gen Retailers-1.82-0.690.80-1.88Resource 20-25.85-17.88-15.03-12.10Industrial 256.315.503.15-1.26Financial 15-6.11-4.92-3.64-5.53Property0.350.23-0.43-1.66?% price above moving average?% price below moving averageThis week:INDEX200 SMA100 SMA50 SMA20 SMABanks-14.90-11.72-9.64-6.65Gen Retailers-5.75-4.20-3.97-4.15Resource 20-32.30-23.78-19.24-8.04Industrial 253.322.25-1.72-2.44Financial 15-6.35-4.86-4.34-3.01Property-3.09-3.70-4.08-3.52?% price above moving average?% price below moving averageHYPERLINK \l "_top" \o "Go to the top of the document"HomeWeekly PerformancesThe week’s best and worst performers:JSE ALLSHARE:MIDCAP:HYPERLINK \l "_top" \o "Go to the top of the document"HomeCompiled by Kevin Barlow-Jones and Simon HobdayDisclosureThis report provides general information only. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments mentioned in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. No security, financial instrument or derivative is suitable for all investors. Past performance and technical patterns and analysis is not necessarily a guide to future performance.This report may contain a short-term trading idea or recommendation, which highlights a specific near-term catalyst, pattern or event impacting the company or the market that is anticipated to have a short-term price impact on the equity securities of the company. Short-term trading ideas and recommendations are different from and may not affect a stock's fundamental equity rating.Facts and views presented in this material have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other business areas of Constant Capital, trading as Sinayo Securities. Neither Constant Capital, trading as Sinayo Securities, nor any officer or employee of Constant Capital, trading as Sinayo Securities, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential damages or losses arising from any use of this report or its contents. ................
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