U.S. Population Projections: 2012 to 2060
U.S. Population Projections: 2012 to 2060
Jennifer M. Ortman Population Division
Presentation for the FFC/GW Brown Bag Seminar Series on Forecasting
Washington, DC February 7, 2013
U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
2012 National Projections
? First series based on the 2010 Census ? Projections of the U.S. population by age,
sex, race, and Hispanic origin ? Covers the period from 2012 to 2060
U.S. Department of Commerce
Economics and Statistics Administration
2
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
Overview
? Methodology and assumptions
? Mortality ? Fertility ? Net International Migration
? Highlights from the results
U.S. Department of Commerce
Economics and Statistics Administration
3
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
Making Population Projections
Starting
Births and
Population Immigrants
Deaths and
Emigrants
Future Population
U.S. Department of Commerce
Economics and Statistics Administration
4
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
Mortality Projections
? One series of mortality projections
? Three race and Hispanic origin groups
? Non-Hispanic White and Asian or Pacific Islander (API)
? Non-Hispanic Black and American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN)
? Hispanic
U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
Note: The superseded Asian and Pacific Islander combined category is used due to the lack of historical data for the current categories of: (1) Asian and (2) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander.
5
Mortality Projection Methodology
? Life expectancy at birth is projected for each group to 2060
? Hispanic life expectancy is projected to converge to the rate projected for the nonHispanic White and API population in 2035
? Use Coale-Demeny West model life table to convert life expectancy projections to age-specific mortality rates
U.S. Department of Commerce
Economics and Statistics Administration
6
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
Life Expectancy at Birth by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1989 to 2060
Male Non-Hispanic
Male Non-Hispanic
Male Hispanic
White and API
Black and AIAN
Female Non-Hispanic
Female Non-Hispanic
Female Hispanic
White and API 90
Black and AIAN
85
80
75
70
65
60 1989
1999
2009
2019
U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
Life Expectancy at Birth
Male
Female
Non- Non-
Non- Non-
Hispanic Hispanic
Hispanic Hispanic
White Black and
White Black and
Year and API AIAN Hispanic and API AIAN Hispanic
2009 76.72 71.12 78.80 81.40 77.52 83.68
2060 83.21 80.37 83.21 87.18 84.72 87.18
2029
2039
2049
2059
7
Fertility Projections
? One series of fertility projections ? Rates for women aged 10 to 54 years ? Five race and Hispanic origin groups
? Non-Hispanic
? White ? Black ? American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN) ? Asian or Pacific Islander (API)
? Hispanic
U.S. Department of Commerce
Economics and Statistics Administration
8
U.S. CENSUS BUREAU
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