PDF Fundamental, Sentiment,^& Technical

Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment,

& Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.

September 30, 2019

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Debbie Johnson

480-664-1333 djohnson@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

1-2

Global Growth Barometer

3

Economic Surprise Index

4

Investors Intelligence Sentiment

5

Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0

6

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0

7

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0

8

AAII Sentiment

9

Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence

10

S&P 500 Put Call Ratio

11

Volatility

12

Volume

13

Dow Theory

14

S&P 500 Moving Averages

15-16

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma

17

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 18

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50019

September 30, 2019 / Fundamental, Sentiment,^& Technical

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

Figure 1.

3250

180

YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR and S&P 500 INDEX

2750

YRI Fundamental Stock

Market Indicator*

S&P 500 Index 2250

160

10/13

140

120

1750

100

80 1250

60

750 40



250

20

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

Figure 2.

70

250

YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

240

230

Boom-Bust Barometer*

220

60 Consumer Comfort Index

10/13 9/21

210

200

190

180

50

170

160

150

140

130

40

120

110

100

90

30

80

70

60

50



20

40

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.

Page 1 / September 30, 2019 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc.



Fundamental Stock Market Indicator

Figure 3.

850

3500

S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES

750

S&P 500 Index

CRB Raw Industrials Spot Index

650

9/30

3000

2500

550

2000

450

9/30

1500

350

1000



250

500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 4.

100

S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

S&P 500 Index 200

Initial Unemployment Claims (thousands, sa, four-week moving average, inverted scale) 300

99//2310

3500 3000 2500

400

2000

500

1500

600

1000



700

500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor's.

Page 2 / September 30, 2019 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc.



Global Growth Barometer

Figure 5.

3500

3500

YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500

3000

YRI Global Growth Barometer* (936.1) S&P 500 Index (2976.7) 2500

9/30

3000

2500

2000

2000

1500

1500

1000

9/30

1000

500 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

500

2020 2021

* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added. Source: Standard & Poor's Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau.

Figure 6.

200

3500

US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE

175

S&P 500 Index

Brent Crude Oil Price*

150

(dollars per barrel)

125

100

75

50

9/30

3000

2500

2000

1500

9/27 1000



25

500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

* Nearby futures price. Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor's Corporation.

Page 3 / September 30, 2019 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical Yardeni Research, Inc.



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