National Weather Service Nov 2021 – January 2022

National Weather Service

Central Region Climate Outlook

Oct 2022 ? Dec 2022

Thursday, September 15, 2022 2:41 PM

Important Message:

Warn and Dry Lean Expands

October 2022 Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks

One Month Temperature Outlook

A La Ni?a Advisory remains, with increased probabilities at or greater than 90% for La Ni?a continuing into the OctNov-Dec time period. The outlooks leaned towards natural analogs, historical trends, and forecast models as a weak MJO and decreasing influence of soil moisture were noted. Teleconnection influences tended to be weak, especially in October, but also in the fall and spring seasons overall.

Seasonal Drought Outlook

With the monsoon season tapering off across the SW and S CONUS, drought conditions are largely expected to persistence or possibly expand across portions of Central Region. This is due to dry or weak signals as we head into the climatological drier months of the year.

The lean towards above normal temperatures saw a significant

expansion across all of CR for

October. With little exception,

models showed a consistent

warm signal for the Month.

The lean towards dry weather One Month Precipitation Outlook

moved from the Northern Plains

last month to the Central and

Southern plains for October. This

was very La Ni?a based with

some inputs from trends and

models. Models showed some

indication for at least near normal

rainfall across the Great Lakes

region and the far Northern

Plains.

Oct 2022 through Dec

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2022 Temperature &

Precipitation Outlooks

Little overall change from the

previous (2-month lead) outlooks

for the period.

While La Ni?a odds continue to

increase, influence of La Ni?a in

Fall tends to be weak/minimal,

therefore the forecast continued to rely heavily on dynamic/

Three Month Precipitation Outlook

statistical guidance and trends.

Despite a slight southward shift,

widespread above normal temps

are favored across all of CR

aside from the far Northern

Plains.

Below normal precip tendencies

remain across much southern

and southwestern CR. Equal

chances noted elsewhere.

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National Weather Service

Central Region Climate Outlook

Third La Nina Winter in a Row Expected: Only the 3rd time in the record since 1950

Oct 2022 ? Dec 2022

Thursday, September 15, 2022 2:41 PM

IRI/CPC Probabilistic ENSO Forecast/Plumes

Typical wintertime La Ni?a pattern

La Nina is forecast to continue into and through this coming winter with greater than an 80% probability. This will be the 3rd year in a row. This has only happened twice before since records on the ENSO pattern were started in 1950 (previously 1973-1976 and 1998-2001).

Useful Links/Info:

News from Latest ENSO Blog from Sea Surface Temperatures from the Climate Prediction Center Latest ENSO Discussion from the Climate Prediction Center Drought Information from the US Drought Monitor Interactive GIS Mapping from NCEI (Anomalies/Rankings) Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) ? Account registration required NWS Forecast Maps from Western Region

? Cooler SSTs continue in the Nino 3.4 region aiding La Ni?a probabilities increasing to at or greater than 90% through the fall before giving way to increasing ENSO neutral probabilities through late winter into early spring.

? El Ni?o probabilities remain negligible until the late spring or summer of 2023.

Other Teleconnection Effects

? Current Multivariate MJO (RMM) index remains within the unit circle, indicating weak or inactive strength.

? RMM forecasts remain clustered in the unit circle heading into early October indicating little impacts with regard to MJO in the near term. This will allow a stronger atmospheric response to the ongoing La Ni?a.

Building a Weather-Ready Nation

For more info, contact: ray.wolf@

Click to evaluate this product

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