Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook
Housing and Mortgage Market Outlook
Department of Veterans Affairs Lenders Conference Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic SVP & Chief Economist
April 12, 2017
?2017 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary.
2017 Market: Less Affordability
1. Mortgage rates rise (but historically low) 2. Household composition increasingly diverse 3. Prices up 5% in 2017, rents up 3% 4. Originations: Purchase up, Refi down 5. Loan quality high (new credit `lower risk')
?2017 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary.
Short-term Interest Rates Heading Up
Federal funds target as of March 15, 2017: 0.75% to 1.00%
Federal funds target projected for December 31, 2017 (based on FOMC member projections):
Federal Funds Target Same as today 1.00% to 1.25% 1.25% to 1.50% 1.50% to 1.75% Higher than 1.75%
Number of FOMC Members 2 1 9 4 1
Source: Federal Open Market Committee projections released March 15, 2017 (individual FOMC participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of 2017).
?2017 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary.
Short-term Interest Rates Heading Up
Federal funds target as of March 15, 2017: 0.75% to 1.00%
Federal funds target projected for December 31, 2017 (based on FOMC member projections):
Federal Funds Target Same as today 1.00% to 1.25% 1.25% to 1.50% 1.50% to 1.75% Higher than 1.75%
Number of FOMC Members
2
1
9
Median
4
1
Source: Federal Open Market Committee projections released March 15, 2017 (individual FOMC participant's judgment of the appropriate level of the target federal funds rate at the end of 2017).
?2017 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary.
Mortgage Rates Heading Up
Rates are still historically low
Interest Rate on 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgages (percent) 7%
6%
5%
Great
4%
Recession
Forecast
Dec. 2017:
4.5%
3% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey?; forecast is an average of MBA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and IHS Markit latest projections.
?2017 CoreLogic, Inc. All rights reserved. Proprietary.
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