Seasonal Climate Forecast Nov. 2021 –Jan. 2022

Seasonal Climate Forecast August ? October 2024

Issued: July 18, 2024

Contact: ODF Lead Meteorologist Pete Parsons 503-945-7448 or peter.gj.parsons@odf.

ODA Team: Diana Walker; Andy Zimmerman; Jenn Ambrose; Taylor Harding ODF Team: Julie Vondrachek; Kristin Cody

El Ni?o vs La Ni?a

(SST Patterns in the Tropical Pacific Ocean)

Courtesy:

Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)

Animated (PowerPoint only) SSTs (top) / Anomalies (bottom)

El Ni?o has transitioned to ENSO-Neutral

Courtesy:

El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Current Status and Forecast

n The June Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was 0.0, reflecting the recent transition to ENSO-neutral conditions.

n The April ? June Oceanic Ni?o Index (ONI) fell to +0.4?C, which also reflects cooling of central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) into the ENSO-neutral range.

n NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) predicts continued cooling of central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean SSTs and a transition from ENSO-neutral to La Ni?a during the August ? October period.

Note: This "analog" forecast does not consider NOAA's ENSO forecast. It uses only historical and current ENSO conditions to find "analog years" that most-closely match the recent evolution of the ENSO state.



Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)

(1957-1958; 1965-1966; 1972-1973) La Ni?a

June 2024 SOI (0.0) reflects ENSO-neutral conditions

ENSO-neutral

El Ni?o

Top 3 June SOI analogs ranged from ENSO-neutral to La Ni?a

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