I
Country Report
(2006)
For the 39th Session of the Typhoon Committee
ESCAP/WMO
Manila, Philippines
4–9 December 2006
People’s Republic of China
I. Overview of Meteorological and Hydrological Conditions in 2006
1. Meteorological Assessment
From Oct. 1st 2005 to Oct. 31st 2006, 24 tropical cyclones (including tropical storms, severe tropical storms, typhoons, severe typhoons and super typhoons) formed over Western North Pacific and South China Sea (Figure. 1.1). Among them, 4 TCs formed from Oct. 1st to Dec. 31st in 2005 and 3 of them affected China coastal waters and didn’t land on China coastal areas. They were typhoon Kai-Tak (0521), tropical storm Tembin (0522) and typhoon Bolaven (0523).
In 2006, 20 tropical cyclones formed over Western North Pacific and South China Sea. The number was obviously less than the average (23.68) during the corresponding period from 1949 to 2005. And 12 of them developed into typhoons or beyond, which accounted for 60.0% of the total. The percentage was higher than the average (54.19%). During the same period, 2 TCs formed over South China Sea. The number was also obviously less than the average (4.06). Moreover, 7 TCs made landfalls over China coastal areas. 6 of 7 landing TCs were above tropical storms. They were severe typhoon Chanchu (0601), severe tropical storm Bilis (0604), typhoon Kaemi (0605), typhoon Prapiroon (0606), super typhoon Saomai (0608) and severe tropical storm Bopha (0609). The total landing number was slightly less than the average (about 6.73), but the percentage of landing (30.0%) TCs was more than the average (24.41%). Apart from these TCs, the tropical storm Jelawat (0602) was another landing event, which was weakened into a tropical depression at the time of landing. In addition, during the same period another 5 TCs affected China coastal waters, despite of the fact that they did not land on China coastal areas. They were super typhoon Ewiniar (0603), super typhoon Shanshan (0613), tropical storm nameless (06××), super typhoon Xangsane (0615) and super typhoon Cimaron (0619). As above mentioned, in total there were 12 TCs landed over China coastal areas or affected its waters from Jan. 1st to Oct. 31st in 2006.
[pic]
Figure.1.1 TC tracks over Western North Pacific and South China Sea from Oct. 1st 2005 to Oct. 31st 2006
◆ The Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones’ Activities in 2006
The characteristics for the tropical cyclones formed from Jan. 1st to Oct. 31st in 2006 are described as follows:
• Few Forming Number with Partly high Intensity
In 2006, 20 tropical cyclones formed over Western North Pacific and South China Sea. The number was obviously less than the average (23.68). 12 of them developed into typhoons or above, which accounts for 60.0% of the total. The percentage is more than the average (54.19%).
• TC Formation Tended to be More Westward in Terms of Source Region
In 2006, most of 20 TCs formed over Western North Pacific between east of Philippines and the Marshall Islands. TC source regions located westward relatively compared with the normal. 16 TCs formed at sea west of 150ºE, which account for 80.0% of the total and the percentage is lightly higher than the average (79.59%). Only 4 TCs developed at sea east of 150ºE. One of them was super typhoon Ioke (0612), which was a hurricane moved into the Western North Pacific from Central Pacific. Over the region, the number of TCs was less than the average. In addition, 2 TCs formed over South China Sea, over which TC was usually believed to be another source region with more frequent TC occurrence.
• The Concentrated Forming Time and Complicated Tracks
During this typhoon season, 18 TCs were formed from July to October 2006 and accounted for 90.0% of the total. The percentage was more than the average (85.89%). Moreover, during the first 10-day of August typhoon Marai (0607), super typhoon Saomai (0608) and severe tropical storm Bopha (0609) formed one after the other over Western North Pacific. In addition, severe tropical storm Wukong (0610) and Tropical Storm Sonamu (0611) formed simultaneously during the second 10-day of August. Because of the effect of Fujiwhara and the interactive effect among tropical cyclones, the tracks of these tropical cyclones became complicated. So it was found difficult to judge and forecast their tracks for operational warning.
• Landing TCs with a higher intensity
Out of 7 landing TCs, 4 reached typhoon category or beyond. The strongest one was super typhoon Saomai (0608) with the maximum winds of 60m/s near its center when landing over Zhejiang Province, and it was the most intense typhoon that hit China since 1949.
• Landing time concentrated in midsummer
From July 13th to August 10th, there were 5 TCs landed over China Coastal Areas. The fact was that there was a TC made landfall every six days during this period, the landing frequency was comparatively high. In September, no tropical cyclone landed over China. But there was more tropical cyclones landing over China at the same past time.
• The Earlier Landing Time with a Stronger Intensity
Typhoon Chanchu (0601) was the first tropical cyclone landing over China in 2006 and the first TC numbered this year. It landed over Raoping-Chenghai, Guangdong Province at 18:15UTC on May 17. Its landing time was 44 days earlier than the average. It was the typhoon that hit Guangdong Province earliest and also one of the most intense typhoons made landfall over China in May since 1949.
◆ Rainfall assessment for impact typhoons
There were totally 6 TCs whose landing intensities are over tropical storm categories made their landfalls over China and brought precipitation in land from Jan. to Sep. 2006. With regard to impacted area, severe tropical storm Bilis (0604) was the most important one, with a precipitation volume of 89.8km3, and the impacted area was 2,304,900km2.
In addition, Typhoon Prapiroon (0606) was the second important case during the period, with a precipitation volume being 72.4km3 and the impacted area reaching 1,988,800km2, which were smaller than those of Bilis.
[pic]
Figure.1.2 The estimated precipitation volumes and impacted areas of landing TCs from Jan. to Sep. 2006
2. Hydrological Assessment
In the flood period of 2006, there were no widespread, long-duration and high-intensity precipitation processes in China; so that there were no great floods happened in the large rivers. Under the influence of warm and humid air current and typhoon, several strong rainfall processes appeared in the southern part of the Yangtze River, and some areas of the South China, which led to great floods in the rivers of Xiangjiang, Beijiang and Minjiang rivers, and the floods occurred in some medium- and small-sized rivers exceeded the historical records in Hunan, Guangdong and Fujian. By the influence of local storms, record-breaking floods also occurred in some medium- and small-sized rivers in Northwest China, East China and upper stream of the Yangtze River. Otherwise, rainfall was smaller in the Yangtze River Basin. The lowest or secondary lowest water levels in the same period of the history were observed in the main stream of the Yangtze River and its tributaries of Jialingjiang and Hanjiang rivers, Dongting and Boyang lakes.
From Jan. to Sept. 2006, the accumulative inflow was smaller in the main China Rivers than the normal. The inflows were increased by 20% in the Xiang River and increased by 10% in the Ganjiang River. In comparison, the inflow was decreased by 40% in the upper stream of the Yangtze River, and decreased by 20% in its middle and lower reaches. During the period, the accumulative inflow only reached 225.381 billion m3; The inflow was decreased by 20-30% in the mid reaches of the Yellow River and by 20% in the lower reaches; The inflow was 30% less in the upper stream of the Huaihe River and by 20% in the middle reach; The inflow was reduced by 30% in the Songhua River and by 70% in Liaohe River; The inflow was even reduced by 90% in the Jumahe River, a tributary of the Haihe River. The accumulative inflow from Jan. to Sept. only reached 0.009 billion m3.
During the flood-prone period in 2006, the hydrology departments at various levels provided a lot of hydrologic information and flood forecasts for flood control and disaster reduce and water resources management. From Jun. 1st to Sept. 30th, Bureau of Hydrology, MWR, collected 1.08 million pieces of hydrological information, released 125 issues of hydrological information reports and 10 flood forecasts, which provided basis for estimating floods and disasters, and making decisions.
3. Socio- economic Assessment
In 2006, 6 TCs whose landing intensities are over tropical storm categories brought abundant precipitation to China, and abated the agricultural drought and impact of hot weather in the most southern area to middle and lower reaches Yangtze River and Southern China, and increased the reservoir storage. However, the violent gust, heavy rain and associated astronomical tides also brought about severe losses in the coastal areas in 2006. Comparing the disaster losses with those of the last 10 years, the economic losses caused by TCs and rain storm in China tend to be more serious in 2006.
According to the preliminary statistics, more than 71 million people and 28,900 km2 farmland were affected. 1,261 people were killed and 420 people were missing. 670 thousands houses destroyed and 1,360 thousands houses were damaged to various degrees. The direct economic losses were about 76.4 billion RMB Yuan, of which severe tropical storm Bilis (0604) and super typhoon Saomai (0608) made the most serious influence on China. 654 people died and 208 people missing by Bilis in Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang provinces. Its direct economic loss was estimated about 34.83 billion RMB Yuan. 456 people died and 110 missing by Saomai in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces. Its direct economic loss was estimated about 19.65 billion RMB Yuan
II. Meteorology
1. Progress in Member’s Regional Cooperation and Selected RCPIP Goals and Objectives
a. Hardware and/or Software Progress
◆ FY-2C Intensive Observation Mode
During the rainy season of this year, according to the demand of TCs’ analysis, NSMC (National Satellite Meteorological Center) switched to FY-2C intensive observation mode again, i.e. apart from 28 full-disc images everyday in the flood-prone season, additional 20 space-based observations over the north hemisphere were provided. Thus, 48 imageries (once half an hour) could be made available on a daily from FY-2C.
◆ Radar Observation Network
According to the national radar observation plan, 158 new generation Doppler radars named CINRAD will consist of China New Generation Doppler Radars Network. Up to now, 95 CINRAD radars have already established in China and succeeded in monitoring hail, rainstorm and typhoons.
During this typhoon season, some Doppler radars located at coastal areas took important roles in operationally monitoring Severe Tropical Storm Bilis (0604), Typhoon Kaemi(0605)，Typhoon Prapiroon (0606) and Super Typhoon Saomai (0608).
In May 2005, the Doppler radar located at Jiagedaqi, Heilongjiang also took an important role in monitoring a local forest fire and the rain and wind around the firing site.
Up to the end of 2006, 105 CINRAD radars will have been set up, and 10 CINRAD radars will be deployed in next year .
◆ Upper Air Sounding Observation
There’re 120 upper air sounding stations in China, 77 of them are using L band secondary radar sounding system. Thus the accuracy of upper air sounding in most of the stations in China reaches the same level as RS80 radiosonde of Vaisala. Meanwhile, CMA also will enhance the construction of wind profiler radar network and GPS/MET detecting network. By the end of 2006, there will be 15 wind profilers and 226 GPS/MET are put into operational use at the relative regions，which are deployed along the usual typhoon paths.
◆ Surface Observation
305 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) which were established under the Automatic Atmosphere Monitoring System project were put into operation from Jan. 1, 2006. Thus, about 2010 AWS operated by CMA has been put into operation.
In accordance with CMA’s operational and technical system restructuring plan, the CMA’s Composite Observing System which consists of 260 National Climate Observatories and 2400 National Meteorological Observing Stations and 30000 Regional Meteorological Observing Stations will be established in near future. 5 pilot stations of National Climate Observatories are under construction and will be put into operation in 1 Jan. 2007.
◆ Microwave TC Analysis System
In order to satisfy the demand of monitoring TCs in the sea, the National Satellite Meteorological Center (NSMC) has developed a microwave TC analysis system in 2006. It combined the atmospheric remote sensing technique with the 3-dimensional manifestation techniques etc. With the help of the microwave data, we can obtain the thermodynamic and cloud-rain structure of TCs and quantitative retrieval TCs’ intensity, rainfall and latent heat release, etc. These data and products have been extensively applied to the TCs’ consultative discussions and analyses, which are very helpful in TCs’ operational forecasts.
◆ Operational Run of Global Model for Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction
The GMTTP (Global Model for Tropical cyclone Track Prediction) was put into operational run this year. This system provides 120h track forecast and four times a day during typhoon season. The 24, 48 and 72h mean track errors for 2006 are 152km, 297km and 464km.
In addition, the ensemble prediction system for TC track and the new initialization scheme on the TC vortex is under development.
b. Implications to Operational Progress
NIL
c. Interaction with users, other Members, and/or other components
At RTH Beijing, the GTS link to New Delhi has been upgraded in December, 2005. The link, which used to operate at 9600bps with a leased circuit, has been replaced and upgraded by a FR link with a symmetric CIR of 8/8kbps. And the WMO FTP procedure is being used.
To collect ATOVS 1b data from RTH Tokyo, RTH Beijing upgraded the CIR for the incoming PVC of Beijing-Tokyo link from 48kbps to 96kbps in July 2006.
In March 2006, the internet connection for the timely exchange of GTS data was established between CMA and Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). Currently, CMA has accessed to BOM’s NWP products and observation data from the southern hemisphere from Melbourne, which has also received CMA’s model data on a real-time basis.
Since September, 2006, CMA has been routinely downloading the hourly METEOSAT images from DWD ftp server over Internet. And the data has been used in NMC’s forecast operations.
d. Training Progress
Nil
e. Research Progress
◆ TC Track Prediction
Several new methods were put into use in typhoon track prediction in the past year. A new method - BDA perturbing- was used in ensemble forecasting of typhoon tracks. This method produced a series bogus vortex through perturbing the initial position and intensity of typhoon based on Bogus Data Assimilation scheme. Some typhoon cases were chosen to test the validity of this new method. Results show that BDA perturbing method can improve the accuracy of track prediction as it is demonstrated in the cases with BDA scheme. Based on statistical-dynamic model of typhoon track prediction, a fitting method combining numerical variation assimilation combined with optimal control technique was adopted to retrieve the initial motion speed of a typhoon and the ambient forces (excluding the Corilos force). The analysis on calculation effects of various typhoon tracks demonstrates that the method may be a new approach for typhoon track predictions.
A typhoon track can be considered as a curve on a 2-dimention plane. According to the similarity deviation of two typhoon tracks, their numerical similarity and geometrical similarity can be estimated. Based on the principle of similitude deviation, a new algorithm is designed to calculate the similar degree between two typhoon tracks. Results show that the most similar target typhoon track can be retrieved from the historical typhoon data base with this new algorithm.
◆ Tropical Cyclone Structure
Application analysis of satellite, Doppler radar remote sensing data, surface intensive observation data and numerical simulation still are the main methods to explore tropical cyclone structure. For example, the 3-D structures of various particles in precipitation cloud system of typhoon (0302) could be investigated based on the data and imagers from TRMM satellite and precipitation radar. Combining Doppler radar successive detecting data surface intensive observation data, the spiral cloud zone, eye wall structure and mesoscale circulation of typhoon Rananim (0414) were studied and the intensity/structure change features between pre-landfall and post- landfall were compared. Moreover, small scale convective system, like tornado also can be explored effectively by Doppler radar. It is found that a tornado occurred in front area of the typhoon with strong vertical wind shear. A series of ambient condition, including humidity distribution of moist air in lower layer and dry air in middle level, strong vertical wind shear, orography etc., plays am important role in the tornado development.
Simulation of mesoscale numerical model is another way to study typhoon structure and its change. Using PSU/NCAR MM5 with 3 km grid horizontal spacing in the finest nested mesh. Typhoon Winnie (9711) was successful simulated in terms of track, intensity, TC eye and concentric eye walls. The dynamic and thermal structure of concentric eye walls was studied based on the model output. It is found that the concentric eye walls are asymmetric both in observation and simulation. The outer eye wall is associated with a maximum wind ring, a warm moist ring and a positive vorticity ring. The inner eye wall is related to a secondary maximum wind ring and warm moist ring. Upward motion dominates the whole inner eye-wall and the area above 2 km altitude of the outer eye wall. Downward motion is dominant inside the eye and its moat.
◆ Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Temperatures retrieved from NOAA-15 AMSU-A are used to develop an algorithm for estimating the intensity of TCs over the Western North Pacific. The variance R2 obtained by the algorithm is 76.9%, and the mean absolute error MAE (root-mean-square error, RMSE) is 5.6 (7.5) m s_1, all of which are comparable to the published results for Atlantic and Eastern Pacific TCs. In addition to the maximum temperature anomaly over the TC center, the height of the warm core, represented by the uppermost position of a certain temperature anomaly contour (1.0 and 0.5 K), is found to be another important predictor in the final equation. Both the jackknife method and an independent test has been conducted to verify the algorithm. Results show that R2 deteriorates slightly to 72.3% using the jackknife method, while the other three statistic, i.e., MAE, RMSE and standard deviation of residuals, increase by ~0.5–1 m s_1 in both the jackknife and independent datasets. Most of large underestimations occur for small but strong TCs, while significant overestimations are either due to the lag of an upper-level warm core following the weakening of the surface circulation, or due to upper-level warming ahead of the surface circulation development.
According to analysis of the 16-year TC intensity data from 3 forecast centers of Western North Pacific, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Tokyo (RSMC Tokyo), and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the results show that there are significant discrepancies (at 1% significance level) among the centers in TC intensity, with maximum difference for a same TC over 30m/s. The flight reconnaissance over TC can help reduce the discrepancy to some extent. A climate and persistency prediction model for TC intensity has been set up to study the impacts of different initial values from different forecast centers on the prediction of TC intensity. It is noted that the RMSE of a 4-year independent test is largest using data from JTWC, while smallest using data from RSMC Tokyo. Average absolute difference in 24 h intensity prediction is 2.5 m/s between CMA and RSMC Tokyo data, 4.0 m/s between CMA and JTWC data, with maximum difference reaching 2l m/s. Such a problem in the initial value increases the difficulty in intensity prediction of TCs over the Western North Pacific.
A statistical TC intensity prediction scheme for Western North Pacific (CSTIP) has been developed based on tropical cyclone samples over Western North Pacific whose intensity is stronger than 17.2 m/s from 1996 to 2002. Basing on the climatology and persistence information, STIP also entails the environmental and underlying surface information. The major potential predictors are as follows: the last 24-hour TC intensity and its changes, the last 24-hour TC center locations and its changes, the last 24-hour minimum distances between TC center and coastline, the last 24-hour TC moving speed, initial horizontal vertical shear, initial 200-hPa divergence, initial eddy flux convergence of momentum, initial temperature disturbance at high level, MPI and potential future intensity change (POT) at initial and forecast TC center location. All samples were divided into three groups based on initial TC center location: the eastern, southern (east to 120°E) and main region. Regression equations are designed for each region. The most important predictor is POT and the following is the minimum distance or its change between TC center and coastline for the three regions. In different region the main predictors are different. In addition to POT and distance predictors, other important predictors are the horizontal vertical shear for eastern region, 500-hPa height anomaly at TC center and zonal component of TC moving speed for southern region, the last 12 (or 18) hour TC intensity change and longitude of TC center for main region. STIP is tested independently using samples during 2004-2005. The real-time sea surface temperature, wind, height and temperature analysis fields on 1°latitude-longitude grid are obtained from NCEP/GFS global model. The forecast track data is derived from the official TC forecast track from CMA. It is found that the MAE of STIP in 24, 48 and 72-h prediction time are 4.6 m/s (411), 6.8 m/s (338) and 7.7 m/s (267) respectively (the numbers in the brackets denote the number of sample). Comparing different forecast region, the MAE of CSTIP in southern region is larger than that in the main region.
The effects of two environmental dynamical factors, namely, the transitional speed and vertical wind shear, on TC intensification, intensity, and the lifetime peak intensity were analyzed based on observations in the Western North Pacific during 1981-2003. In general, both the fast motion and strong vertical shear are negative to both TC intensification and the lifetime peak intensity. Both strongest TCs and TCs with rapid intensification rate are found only to occur in a narrow velocity range (3-8 m s-1), or under a condition with relatively weak vertical shear. The overwhelming majority of Western North Pacific TCs reach their lifetime peak intensity just prior to re-curvature where their environmental steering flow and vertical shear are both weak. The results show that few TCs intensified when they moved faster than 15 m s-1, or when their large-scale environmental vertical shear has been larger than 20 m s-1. The intensification rate of TCs has been found to increase with decreasing vertical shear while the majority of the weakening storms experience relatively strong vertical shear. Overall, strong vertical shear prohibits rapid intensification and most likely results in the weakening of TCs, much the same as the fast moving storm. Based on the statistical analysis, a new empirical maximum potential intensity (MPI) has been developed, which includes the combined negative effect of motion speed and vertical shear as the environmental dynamical control in addition to the positive contribution of SST and the outflow temperature as the thermodynamic control. The new empirical MPI can not only provide more accurate estimation of TC maximum intensity but also better explain the observed behavior of the TC maximum intensity and help understand the thermodynamic and environmental dynamical controls of TC intensity.
◆ Tropical Cyclone Genesis
The summer tropical cyclone formation is rarely concerned in the north Indian Ocean (NIO) and South China Sea (SCS). Little tropical cyclogenesis in the Arabian Sea (AS) occurs in summer, resulting from the relatively low SST and great vertical wind shear. During summer, active TCs form in the SCS, assembling in the northeast of this area, far from the eastern coast of Indochina and close to the western mountainous coast of Luzon. The near-surface setting with cyclonic vorticity, barotropical instability caused by the low-level jet, weak vertical wind shear, upper divergent flows, and orographic uplifting controls the TC formation in the SCS. Summer TC typically forms at the head of the Bay of Bengal (BoB), not close to the eastern mountainous coast of the BoB. Like the surface wind in the SCS, the southwesterly monsoon winds produce positive surface vorticity in the north of the BoB. The shear with relatively small magnitude is located at the head of the BoB. Additionally, the disturbances in the SCS can propagate westward by wave train and reach the head of the BoB in a trip of approximately 4-5 days, which is favorable for the tropical cyclogenesis. In summer, monsoon trough prevails at the head of the BoB and provides helpful condition to TC genesis. Although the mountainous regions of the eastern coast of the BoB are rainiest, inactive TC genesis occurs there because of the strong vertical wind shear and negative vorticity throughout the troposphere.
◆ Tropical Cyclone climatology
A set of typhoon climate prediction equations was set up by using several statistical methods such as multivariate regression, optimal subset regression and stepwise regression. The prediction of 2006 TC season was made and the result was that the number of TC over Western North Pacific is below normal and the number of TC landing China is around normal. The data reconstruction of the typhoon affecting the East China during 1450 -1949 from historical documents was completed.
◆ Numerical Assimilation Technique
• Application Study of Satellite Data Assimilation
The impacts of Satellite data assimilation on typhoon initialization and forecast are evaluated with respect to the cloud-derived winds. QuikSCAT sea surface winds and AMSU-A temperature data. Several sensitivity numerical experiments have been designed and conducted with different assimilation schemes, such as only winds, hereinafter referred to as single-assimilation, combined both derived winds and sea winds, hereinafter referred to as joint-assimilation, and bogus data assimilation (BDA). It is found that the “joint-assimilation” with both of the cloud-derived and QuikSCAT winds gave a better result than the “single-assimilation”. The “joint-assimilation” also presented comparable or even better performance than the BDA method in a number of case studies, which enhanced the confidence for eliminating the man-made vortex (BDA) in the Shanghai Operational Typhoon Numerical Model in a near future. A new technique named “Model-Constrained 3DVAR (MC-3DVAR) is proposed to improve the initialization and numerical forecast of typhoon. As a remarkable feature of MC-3DVAR, the overall model dynamic and thermodynamic constraint is considered as compared with that of the classical-3DVAR (3DVAR) in a common sense, while the computational cost is ignorable in comparison with that of the 4DVAR. Case studies of MC-3DVAR with AMSU-A temperature data proves to be successful and expected to be applicable in operational use.
• TC Bogus Technique
A bogus vortex with tilt vertical structure was used in numerical simulations on the track prediction of typhoon 9809. Comparisons of experiments results show that the simulated effects are superior to the one with barotropic bogus vortex. Accordingly, a new method of bogus vortex with tilt vertical structure is presented to improve typhoon bogus scheme.
• Adaptive or targeting observation
Adaptive or targeting observation is additional and targeting observation based on existing and fixed observing network for atmosphere on the impacted region. Dropsonde is one of the important observing instrument in adaptive or targeting observation. GRAPeS, the next generation of numerical weather prediction system of China was used to study the impacts of Dropsonde data on typhoon Dujuan (2003) prediction. It is demonstrated that the element forecasts are improved obviously with the Dropsonde data in numerical experiments, such as the track, the center location and the intensity prediction of typhoon.
• Sensitivity Study of Adaptive or Targeting Observation
Sensitivity analysis is based on the adaptive observation (Emanuel, 1998). In the support of typhoon adaptive observation, preliminary study was performed with the adjoint model of MM5 on the typhoon cases affecting East China. The particular features and coverage of analysis error, which corresponds closely to the performance of forecast was identified. In the sensitive area the above analysis error covers, error grows fastest, while the forecast is affected the most. In comparison with the satellite observation, the adjoint-sensitive method can correctly reproduce the temporal variation of the sensitive area.
◆ Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Mechanism
The extratropical transition process of typhoon 0108 (Toraji) and its heavy rainfall causes were analyzed using MM5. It has been found that frontogenesis enhances ageostrophic wind and forces the secondary frontal vertical circulation, resulting in the intensification of upward motion, which makes typhoon rainfall increase remarkably. Using a mesoscale air-sea coupled model, numerical experiments were performed on two typical typhoons to investigate the impacts of air-sea interaction on typhoon rainstorm. Results show that the interaction of air-sea would increase the minimum sea level pressure, decrease the amount of typhoon convective precipitation in later integrated period and change the distribution of convective rainfall distinctly. Interaction between air-sea presents a negative feedback mechanism on typhoon rainstorm through the descending of sea surface temperature near the high wind areas.
f. Other Cooperative/RCPIP Progress
Nil
2. Progress in Member’s Important, High-Priority Goals and Objectives
(towards the goals and objectives of the Typhoon Committee)
a. Hardware and/or Software Progress
◆ IBM HP Computer System
The IBM Cluster 1600 was delivered by IBM to the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) for operational use by the end of March 2005. The peak performance of the latest system is 21TFLOPS and the total number of processors on this system was 3248, which included 386 p655+ servers and 7 p690+ servers interconnected by 3 sets low latency high speed network also known as Federal Switch.
◆ Mobile Stations for Typhoon Surveillance
A mobile station for typhoon surveillance has been set up in the Spring by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI). Some new sounding instruments have been equipped, including an acoustic wind profiler from Germany, a GPS sounding from USA, a Sonic Anemometer/Thermometer, an automatic meteorological station, and a remote control camera. The acoustic wind profiler can survey temperature, relative humidity, and three-dimensional wind below 1000 m in the lower atmosphere. The GPS sounding is able to observe temperature, pressure, humidity, wind, etc., below 15-hPa level. The supersonic anemometer/thermometer is capable of measure three-dimensional wind and temperature in a selected location. The remote control camera can provide environment information. The real-time observed data can also be transferred to an appointed unit by a wireless.
◆ Upgrade of GRAPES_TCM
The STI operational typhoon numerical model GRAPES_TCM2.1 (GT2.1) has been upgraded to G RAPES_TCM2.6 (GT2.6). Numerical experiments were performed in simulation of TCs occurred in 2005. The lead time of prediction is prolonged from 48-h to 72-h. The comparison between GT2.1 and GT2.6 according to the 0-48h track prediction shows that the 48-h track error of the latter is 17 km less than that of the former, while slightly difference is shown in the early 0-24 h. Better performance of GT2.6 is evidently presented in the TC cases moving westward or Northwestward, the improvement is about 25 km. Within the area（130E-140E、10N-30N）of TC’s of majority passes, the 48h track error of GT2.6 is 30 km less than that of GT2.1. The 72-h track error of GT2.6 is 336 km, which is a feasible for operational use.
◆ Numerical Prediction System of Wind and Rainfall Associated with Landing Typhoon
A numerical prediction system with the horizontal resolution of 9km within the area of the East China was set up, focusing on wind and rainfall associated with Typhoon Landfall. To characterize the wind and rainfall structure in detail, the resolution is upgraded to 3 km for Shanghai area. The system is built upon WRFV2.1, which runs twice a day at 08BST and 20BST respectively. No bogus vortex is introduced during the typhoon initialization to avoid the destruction of the typhoon structure. The system is expected to make quantitative forecast on the coverage and intensity of typhoon-induced wind and heavy rainfall. Parallel runs of this system will be made in conjunction of the Shanghai Operational Typhoon Numerical Prediction Model to give more objective and efficient production.
◆ Update of Shanghai Typhoon Institute Tropical Cyclone Model (SHTM)
The updated SHTM with BDA (Bogus Data Assimilation) initialization technique has been put into operation in 2006. Until the mid October, it has forecasted 19 TCs with 24- and 48-hour forecasting for 114 and 88 times respectively, with an averaged error of 135.2 and 224.9 km accordingly.
◆ Application of the Improved Operational Wind and Wave Numerical Forecast System
The improved operational wind and wave numerical forecast system was established by Shanghai Typhoon Institute based on the hybrid wave model version 3 and a mesoscale atmospheric model. Statistics has shown high accuracy and skill in wind and wave forecasting. This system has been put into operation and was introduced to Shanghai Weather Center in the flood season of 2006.
b. Implications to Operational Progress
◆ Update of TC Retrieval System and Annual TC report
The TC data retrieval system covering the Western North Pacific region has been revised and upgraded. The historical environmental TC data and some new retrieval functions in the system have been added. Meanwhile, the interface operation becomes more friendly and convenient. We have renewed annual TC report whose content increases greatly. The added products include general situation for each TC, distribution figure of daily rainfall for each TC, disaster situation caused by a TC, selected satellite image and weather chart of each TC.
◆ New Satellite-Based Broadcasting System---DVB-S System
CMA is developing a new satellite-based broadcasting system, DVB-S system, for replacing the current PCVSAT system. A pilot system, which includes a hub station installed at the National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC) and some receiving stations installed at provincial centers，and supports the services of data broadcasting and multimedia program broadcasting, has been put into running since April, 2006. The total broadcasting rate for the pilot system is 3Mbps at present. Comparing with the current PCVSAT system, the new system gains the main advantages of higher data rates and lower costs for remote stations due to using standard DVB technology.
◆ Since December, 2005, CMA started distributing the cloud motion wind products derived from CMA's FY satellite and coded in BUFR format over GTS.
c. Interaction with users, other Members, and/or other components
◆ China’s First TV Weather Channel Launched
The first weather channel in China (CWTV) was launched on 18 May 2006, providing updated weather forecasts every ten minutes around the clock .
CWTV is a specialized TV channel, providing timely, authoritative and refined meteorological information and relevant services of practical use for people’s daily lives and their activities.
Following the advocacy of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO), CWTV is also oriented towards natural disaster preparedness and mitigation. Continuous coverage in the event of high impact or severe weather, such as typhoons, heavy rain, floods, and sand or dust storms will be high on the channel’s agenda.
The new channel presents and updates around-the-clock, the rolling programs: “Weather Report”, “Weather over China”, “World Weather”, “Significant Weather”, “Traffic Weather”, “7-day Weather Forecast”, “Weather & Life”, “Meteorological Knowledge”, “Weather & Tourism”, etc.
d. Training Progress
◆ Training Course on Application of the Next Generation Doppler Weather Radar
From October 2005 to July 2006, China Meteorological Administration Training Center (CMATC) has held 5 Training Courses on the application of the Next Generation Doppler Weather Radar in all; more than 200 trainees attended the courses. The training content mainly included the principles of the Next Generation Doppler Weather Radar, locating the typhoon center by the Radar, estimation of the intensity (wind speed), the echo characteristics of the convective weather on the Radar and the cases analysis, estimation of typhoon precipitation as well as the warning skills of the severe convective weather related to typhoon spiral rain band, etc.
◆ Training Course on the interpretation of the Meteorological Satellites Data
In January 2006, CMATC held a Training Course on the interpretation of the Meteorological Satellites Data with 56 participants. The main training content covered the basic principles of the Meteorological Satellites and the analysis of the satellite imagery, making weather forecast by using satellite data, the generation and application of SST data, the generation and application of TOVS data, the estimation of the locating and the intensity of Typhoon with satellite image, the interaction of Typhoon and the mid-latitude weather system, methods of estimating precipitation with satellite data, analysis and application of water vapor images, etc.
◆ Advanced Training Course for Chief Forecasters
From October to December 2006, CMATC held a Advanced Training Course for Chief Forecasters, 37 chief forecasters from CMA meteorological establishments at a provincial level took part in the event. They studied the Radar detection and warning of severe convective weather, analysis of satellite images, estimation of Typhoon precipitation, forecasts of torrential rains and severe convective weather, calculation of severe convection parameters, forecast of tropical cyclones, the small systems of heavy rain and severe convective weather forecast, the characteristics of Radar echoes in convective weather and the cases studies, etc.
◆ Training Course for Fresh Forecasters
From September to December 2006, CMATC held a Training Course for Fresh Forecasters, with 38 students in the class. The training contents include locating the center of Typhoon by use of Radar and satellite data, estimating the intensity (wind speed), analyzing satellite images, estimating typhoon precipitation, the interaction of Typhoon and the mid-latitude weather system, forecasting torrential rains and severe convective weather, forecasting tropical cyclones, the small systems of torrential rains and severe convective weather forecast, the echo characteristics of the Radar in convective weather and cases studies, etc.
e. Research Progress
◆ Tropical Cyclone Track
The correlation and composite analyses are carried out to study major factors affecting the track of tropical cyclones after their landfall in Eastern China. The mid-tropospheric steering flow is found dominating the movement of a TC even after its landfall, with the inertia and Coriolis force two other subordinates. A key region is discovered covering the east of China and Yellow Sea, in which the environmental flow significantly affects the movement of TCs making landfall in Eastern China. When the subtropical high in this region strengthens and extends westward, accompanied by northward shrink of the westerly trough, the TC tends to move westward after landfall and disappear inland. However, when the subtropical high in this region weakens and shrinks eastward, accompanied by southward push of the westerly trough, the TC tends to re-curve after landfall and re-enter the sea at a location to the north of the landfall point. The environment before the landfall of a TC has little impact on its post-landfall track, which is sensitive to the environmental change 12 – 24 hours after landfall. A 6-hour lag is found between the environmental change and the movement of a TC after landfall.
A new typhoon model named as GRAPES_TCM is applied to study the pre-landfall erratic track of Typhoon Haitang (2005), which hit China twice in mid-July in a process of making landfall in Taiwan and Fujian provinces consecutively. It predicts almost correctly the pre-landfall loop and sharp turn of Haitang and its asymmetric rainfall distribution. Haitang’s erratic track is well explained by the potential vorticity (PV) theory on tropical cyclone motion, with the typhoon center moving toward the area of maximum wave-number 1 (WN1) PV tendency most of the time. Among the terms contributing to the WN1 PV tendency, the horizontal advection of PV is dominant with the diabatic heating and residual terms also being not negligible. A sensitivity experiment is carried out with removal of the Taiwan terrain to determine its importance in the erratic track of Haitang and it is found that the basic erratic feature of Haitang’s track remains unchanged although it tends to have a larger loop and a weaker northward turn, which suggests that Taiwan terrain may not be a key factor here. The sudden change of Haitang’s moving direction is always accompanied by a newly-generated or re-intensified WN1 PV center in the southern semicircle, which circles around the TC center cyclonically afterwards and weakens in the north or northwestern part. A phase-lock WN1 PV forcing related to diabatic heating is proposed to be the major contributor, the importance of which is magnified as it is in phase with the WN1 horizontal advection of PV. The intrusion of mid-level warm and dry air, as well as the existence of a low-level southwesterly jet, is considered to be the main reasons for such a phase-lock of the diabatic heating forcing on the PV tendency field that finally results in the erratic track of Haitang.
◆ Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change
Typhoon disasters are directly related to its intensity change during landing process. Most typhoons usually dissipate after landfall while the others may sustain over land for a long time even re-intensify. A quasi geostrophic barotropic model was adopted to investigate the influence of topography and boundary layer on landing tropical cyclone intensity change. Results show that the effect of topography on typhoon intensity in not distinct. On the other hand, the boundary layer friction may be one of the important factors to decrease typhoon intensity rapidly. The sustention and intensification of typhoon Nina (1975) over land were simulated with MM5V3 and its bogus scheme. The results showed that the vertical transfer of the physical quantities of the boundary layer over saturated wet land would affect the structure, intensity and rainfall of a landing typhoon obviously. Fluxes of latent heat and sensible heat are favorable to tropical cyclone sustention and intensification, but the latent heat flux would play a major on tropical cyclone intensification and sustention of spiral rain-band. It is also affect the rainfall distribution. Flux of Kinetic energy would dissipate and fill up the tropical cyclone over land.
◆ Tropical Cyclone Structure and Dynamic and Thermodynamic Process
The sea surface roughness length used in most of numerical weather or climate models is generally based on the Charnock relation, which was validated only for wind speeds up to 25 m s-1. Any application to higher winds, such as in the models used for tropical cyclones, is an extrapolation, which predicts a monotonic increase of drag coefficient with the increase of wind speed. Latest observational and theoretical studies, however, show that this trend will break down at some high wind speed beyond which the drag coefficient does not increase or even decreases with increasing wind speed. In this study, a parameterization scheme for sea surface momentum roughness length, applicable for all wind regimes including high winds under tropical cyclone conditions, is constructed based on the latest measurements from Global Positioning System (GPS) dropsonde. It reproduces the observed regime transition, namely, an increase of the drag coefficient with the increase of wind speed up to 40 m s-1 followed by a decrease with further increase of wind speed. The effect of this parameterization on the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones is evaluated using a high-resolution, non-hydrostatic tropical cyclone model – TCM4. The results show that although the intensification rate is not affected by the use of the new scheme compared with the traditional extrapolation, the final intensity is increased by 10.5% (8.9%) in the maximum surface wind speed and by 8.1hPa (5.9hPa) increase in the minimum sea surface pressure drop with (without) dissipative heating. This intensity increase is found to be mainly due to the reduced frictional dissipation in the surface layer and with little to do with either the surface enthalpy flux or latent heat release in the eye-wall convection. The effect of the new surface roughness parameterization on the storm structure is found to occur only in the inner core region with the increase in tangential winds in the eye-wall and the increase in temperature anomalies in the eye compared to the traditional extrapolation. Consistent with previous findings, dissipative heating increases the maximum tropical cyclone intensity. We show that dissipative heating also affects the tropical cyclone inner core structure considerably. It acts to shift the eye-wall slightly inward and to reduce the slope of outward eye-wall tilt with height. Although the dissipative heating acts to enlarge the intensity increase due to the use of the new surface roughness parameterization, it reduces the difference in storm structure to some degree.
The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Typhoon Rananim (2004) at fine resolution (2-km grid spacing). The model is initialized with the objective analysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and with a model-generated bogus vortex incorporated. The simulated intensification, maintenance, landfall in China, and inner-core structure of the storm are all in good agreement with the best analysis and multifarious observations, with the landing point and time nearly coincidence with the observed. The model also captures reasonably well the features of surface winds, especially reproducing well the asymmetry of surface winds at different stages. The simulation depicts favorably the deep convection associated with Rananim, including the eye-wall features, and inner and outer spiral rain bands. The model-simulated radar reflectivity exhibits rich structures similar to the observed, comprising the echo-free eye, the asymmetry in eye-wall convection, and the shrinking of the eye-wall when the storm making landfall. The precipitation changes are captured well in the 72-h simulation. Of particular significance is that many simulated kinematics and thermodynamic structures in the inner core region compare favorably to previous observations and numerical simulations of tropical cyclones. As verified against the observations, the simulation also reproduces reasonably well the changes in surface winds and surface pressure near the storm center when Rananim making landfall.
◆ Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Mechanism
Using the Penn State University - NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5), a heavy rain event associated with a tropical depression (TD) on Aug 5 2001 in Shanghai is studied. It is found that a mesoscale high may be very important to the rain in that it induces convective instability near Zhejiang to produce a mesoscale cloud cluster. This mesoscale cloud cluster merges with the cloud cluster of the weakening TD in the end and the convective systems move into Shanghai area. It is also found that Hangzhou Bay is very important to the rain event.
◆ Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Quantitative Estimation
Considering the GMS-5 IR1 TBB features of landing typhoons and hourly rainfall intensity and its distribution feature, a preliminary method of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) on landing typhoon was established based on the works of Adler-Negri and Goldenberg et al. The ability of this method was tested on the rainfall of typhoon Utor (0104). Results show that QPE method can distinct convective and non-convective rainfall and reflect the asymmetric feature of typhoon precipitation though it can not predict the rainfall more than 15 mm/h well. Besides, the method also has a stronger ability in estimating the process rainfall of typhoon.
◆ Impacts of Global Warming on Typhoon Activity
More and more attentions are being paid on the impacts of global warming on typhoon activity. Based on the analysis of the Southern Hemisphere surface temperature and the activities of tropical cyclones over Western North Pacific, the relationship between global warming and the frequency and intensity change was investigated. It is found that the frequency of tropical cyclones in Western North Pacific would be decreased and the intensity may be weakened with the climatic warming in Southern Hemisphere. A possible mechanism is attributed to the weakening of cold wave from Southern Hemisphere under the global warming background.
The annual change features on frequency, intensity and location of typhoons, which made landfall in China were analyzed based on Western North Pacific tropical cyclone data and global surface temperature data from 1949 to 2002. Results demonstrate that the decreasing trend of the landfall frequency is not so remarkable comparing with the genesis frequency of Western North Pacific typhoons. It is found that the locations lean to north to the coastal areas of mid China.
f. Other Cooperative/RCPIP Progress
Nil.
3. Opportunities for Further Enhancement of Regional Cooperation
Nil.
III. Hydrology
1. Progress in Member’s Regional Cooperation and Selected RCPIP Goals and Objectives
a. Hardware and Software Progress
Since the workshop held, with title of “Living with Risk: Dealing with Typhoon-related Disasters as Part of the Integrated Water Resources Management”, in Seoul, the Public of Korea, in September 2004, China has taken active part in such projects as RCPIP(Regional Cooperative Program Implementation Plan) and DPP(Disaster Prevention and Preparedness). China took active part in two projects of Application of Flood Forecasting System in the Selected Areas and Evaluation of Hydrometric and Telecommunication Equipment, of which China had charge.
◆ Project of Application of Flood Forecasting System in Selected River Basins
According to the plan by Seoul Workshop, China has done as follows:
• Reviewed the reports on construction and application of flood forecasting systems submitted by various members in the workshop.
• Prepared the CD for installing Chinese flood forecasting system and the concerned manuals in English.
• Finished the first draft of the manual of flood forecasting system.
• Summarized future development and application of flood forecasting technology in China and offered the concerned report to the members for reference.
In the Macao Workshop, the representatives from the Ministry of Water Resources introduced the Chinese Hydrological Operational System, and issued manuals of Chinese hydrological information and forecasting and Chinese flood forecasting. The project will be continued to 2007 when China will submit the development manual of flood forecasting system.
◆ Project of Evaluation of Hydrometric and Telecommunication Equipment
Since 2002, this project has been implemented for 4 years. According to the reports and plans submitted by various members in Seoul Workshop, China last year organized to write the report of Evaluation of Hydrometric and Telecommunication Equipment.
Because there were only 3 countries providing the concerned information, the report was not written in detail. However, we can know from the report that Japan is advanced in hydrometric and telecommunication equipment, China and Malaysia have their own practical experience, and it is necessary for the other members to make their efforts in hydrometric and telecommunication equipment.
b. Implications to Operational Progress
Nil.
c. Interaction with users, other Members, and/or other components
China always takes active part in the cooperation with the international hydrology organizations, neighboring countries and members of Typhoon Committee as an important role. China has been exchanging and sharing the hydrologic data with other countries and organizations including Russia, Korea, Vietnam, India, Kazakhstan and Mekong Committee.
In order to strengthen hydrological information exchanging with neighboring countries, China took part in the local experiments of Flood Risk Maps and System of Mud-Rock Flow Warning and Forecasting, of which Japan had charge, and the local experiments of Manual of Reservoir Operation and Evaluation of Flood Forecasting Model, of which the Public of Korea had charge.
d. Training Progress
In order to quicken the project of application of flood forecasting system in selected river basins and popularize Chinese flood forecasting system, Bureau of Hydrology, Ministry of Water Resources, PRC, will hold an international training class of Chinese flood forecasting system in Beijing. ESCAP will sponsor the trainees from developing countries in international traveling expenses, the trainees from developed countries (such as Japan and the Public of Korea) will bear their own international traveling expenses, China will bear the training and board/lodging expenses in Beijing and also hope that this project would be held together with the training project of flood forecasting charged by Malaysia.
e. Research Progress
Nil.
f. Other Cooperative/RCPIP Progress
In 2006, China sent 3 representatives to Macao attending International Workshop on "Integrating activities of the hydrology, meteorology and DPP components of the Typhoon Committee into the related international frameworks on disaster risk management for better impacts and visibility" and actively joined in the discussions of hydrology work group and disaster preventing and reducing work group.
2. Progress in Member’s Important, High-Priority Goals and Objectives
(towards the goals and objectives of the Typhoon Committee)
a. Hardware and Software Progress
◆ Project of Flood Risk Maps
In recent years, China continuously does its work in the respect of flood risk maps and has achieved a success. Since 2005, the State Headquarters of Flood Control and Drought Relief has asked various river basin authorities to select 2-3 provinces as pilots to draw flood risk maps. The main objects of drawing flood risk maps are important rivers, reservoirs and flood storage areas. Meanwhile, a specific website has been put up to provide a platform for studying, discussing and exchanging experience in drawing flood risk maps.
◆ Project of Torrent and Mud-Rock Flow Forecasting and Warning System
In recent years, China continuously does its work in the respect of mud-rock flow and has achieved a success.
• Continuously perfect mud-rock flow forecasting in Xuanhan Region of Sichuan Province. It is expected that the newest forecasting technology from Japan will be used in the provinces of Fujian, Zhejiang and Hunan in future 5 years.
• Ministry of Water Resources, China Meteorological Administration, Ministry of Land and Resources, Ministry of Construction and State Environmental Administration have together finished the plan and design of the study on mud-rock flow and landslide monitoring technology, with main aim of building mud-rock flow and landslide monitoring system with higher and new technology combined with traditional technology for monitoring, building static and dynamic models for detecting mud-rock flow and landslide distortion trend, forecasting mud-rock flow and landslide, offering prevention measures to avoid and decrease the losses from mud-rock flow and landslide.
b. Implications to Operational Progress
◆ Standard Making
The new Standard of Hydrologic Information Coding has been formally used for a flood period in China. In order to suit for the development of automatic system of hydrologic data collection and transmission, the new protocols for data transmission are being made.
c. Interaction with users, other Members, and/or other components
Nil.
d. Training Progress
Nil.
e. Research Progress
Nil.
f. Other Cooperative/RCPIP Progress
Nil
3. Opportunities for Further Enhancement of Regional Cooperation
(including identification of other hydrological-related topics and opportunities, possible further exchange of information and priority needs for assistance)
◆ Have a good cooperation with the countries who are interested in the 2 projects that China is in charge of, especial Malaysia. For this, China has made a complete preparation.
◆ As a long-term cooperation initiative on a regional level, we need long-term and in-depth on-the-job training in addition to short-term technical training.
IV. Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (DPP)
1. Progress in Member’s Regional Cooperation and Selected RCPIP Goals and Objectives
a. Hardware and/or Software Progress
◆ Operational Warning on Revised Grade Standard of TCs
CMA organized a revision for China National Grade Standard of Tropical Cyclone from 2005 to the beginning of 2006. The revised standard has been put into operational TC forecasting and warning since Jun. 15 2006. The revised standard took an important role in strengthening operational tropical cyclone forecasting and warning, improvement in public and governmental awareness and measures on prevention and preparedness against tropical cyclones in China.
Table 4.1 The Revised Grade Standard of TCs
|Grade of Tropical Cyclone |Maximum Sustained |Beaufort Wind Scale |
| |2 minute Wind Speed | |
|Tropical Depression（TD） |10.8-17.1m/s |Force 6-7 |
|Tropical Storm（TS） |17.2-24.4m/s |Force 8-9 |
|Severe Tropical Storm (STS） |24.5-32.6m/s |Force 10-11 |
|Typhoon（TY） |32.7-41.4m/s |Force 12-13 |
|Severe Typhoon （STY） |41.5-50.9m/s |Force 13-14 |
|Super Typhoon（Super TY) |≥51.0M/S |≥ Force 15 |
◆ The System of Evaluating Disaster Related Tropical Cyclone
The disaster data caused by tropical cyclones from 1980 to 2004 have been collected and checked. Because of the price change and the imbalance of social-economic development between different regions, some disaster data such as the immediate economic loss can’t be compared with each other. The rate of immediate economic loss instead of the immediate economic loss is used here, which is equal to the immediate economic loss/GDP*100%. The reduced data have been added to the database. The old disaster evaluation guideline has been optimized and the standard of disaster evaluation has been determined. Based on the original computation method of disaster index, new disaster index -- index AQ and index STID have been defined, taking into consideration the rate of immediate economic loss. The forecasting models of the disaster caused by tropical cyclones have been established at national and provincial levels. The forecast factors are chosen from the wind and rain induced by TC, the landfall area and intensity of TC, the maintenance after landing, the moving speed of TC, etc. The correlation coefficients between the fitting value of the submerged farm, collapsed house, immediate economic loss and observed value are from 0.8 to 0.98, which indicates that the model has some forecast ability. Currently, the software about impact assessment of typhoon on society and economy is being developed in National Climate Center (NMC). In order to provide more useful information to relative departments for disaster mitigating and preventing, Meteorological services strengthen the report system at real time on the impact assessment of typhoon this year.
b. Implications to Operational Progress
Nil.
c. Interaction with users, other Members, and/or other components
◆ New Names for Typhoons Solicited
China marked the World Meteorological Day by asking people around the world to come up with new names for typhoons, as Longwang was retired from the traditional list of 140 names .
The campaign ended on 31 May and more than 34,000 people took part in it. Nezha, Haikui, Shuixian, Qilin and Wutong are the winning names as candidates for approval by the 39th session of the Typhoon Committee. Moreover, it also is an important way to publicize and disseminate the knowledge about prevention and preparedness against tropical cyclones to the public and promote the public awareness of tropical cyclones.
d. Training Progress
Nil.
e. Research Progress
◆ The 275th Xiangshan Science Conference: Scientific Issues on Landing Typhoon and Disaster Prevention and Reduction
The 275th Xiangshan Science Conference entitled 'Scientific Issues on Landing Typhoon and Disaster Prevention and Reduction' was held from 18 to 20 April 2006 at Xiangshan Hotel, Beijing, chaired by Prof. Chen Lianshou from Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, CMA, Prof. Wu Rongsheng from Nanjing University, Prof. Wang Angsheng from Chinese Academy of Sciences, CMA and Prof. Duan Yihong from Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA.
The Xiangshan Science Conference is a routinely-held high-level meeting sponsored by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and Chinese Academy of Sciences, aiming at exploring scientific fronts and promoting knowledge innovation. Over 40 experts from 20 domestic or overseas institutions attended the conference and had a thorough discussion on basic scientific issues and future directions of the theory and forecast techniques for landfall typhoons, theories for typhoon warning efficiency and reliability, and scientific issues related to typhoon disaster prevention and reduction.
f. Other Cooperative/RCPIP Progress
Nil.
2. Progress in Member’s Important, High-Priority Goals and Objectives
(towards the goals and objectives of the Typhoon Committee)
a. Hardware and/or Software Progress
◆ The Establishment of National Meteorological Disasters Monitoring, Forewarning and Evaluation Center of CMA
On May 26th 2006, National Meteorological Disasters Monitoring, Forewarning and Evaluation Center was established in CMA. Its main objectives will focus on such as reinforcements on monitoring, forewarning and evaluating meteorological disasters, establishments and perfection for meteorological disasters forewarning emergency mechanism, enhancements on capacities of monitoring, forewarning and evaluating meteorological disasters, improving in services for prevention and preparedness against meteorological disasters in different governmental departments. Its main responsibilities include the following:
← To be responsible for real-time monitoring the occurrence and development of the main meteorological disasters over China, Asia and the world.
← To be responsible for investigating, collecting and statistically analyzing the situation of the meteorological disasters, analyzing and evaluating its occurrence and influences, forecasting and forewarning the meteorological disaster possibly happening in the future.
← To be responsible for evaluating and estimating the influences of the meteorological disasters, and providing decision-making services for prevention and preparedness against disasters through synthetically scientific analyses.
← Organizing and coordinating the research project related to the meteorological disasters, enhancing the researches on the forming mechanism of the meteorological disasters, dynamics on meteorological disasters, mitigation policies and risk evaluation and so on.
← To be responsible for providing the technical training on the monitoring, forewarning and evaluating analysis related to meteorological disasters.
Moreover, it also is responsible for the analyses, evaluation and estimation about the emergency managements for meteorological disasters, pointing out some existing problems and summarizing the experiences and lessons in prevention and preparedness against meteorological disasters for improving in future DPP works. Up to now, it had given their first reports for all tropical cyclones landing over China coastal areas during this year.
◆ Construction about Safety Shelters against TC
Since this typhoon season, central and local governments have been planning to construct safety shelters in high risk regions over which typhoons often land, such as coastal areas in Zhejiang and Fujian provinces.
◆ Revision on Construction Standard for House
For the facts that the intensities of landing typhoon become more intensive within recent years, some local coastal governments have also been planning to revise on construction standard for public houses to prevent from destructive disasters to public houses.
b. Implications to Operational Progress
◆ Investigation for Disasters Related to Landing Typhoon
There are many facts that a great different degree in disasters or breakage induced by typhoons with different intensities and landing sites, especially in destructive degree by gale. And it is very important to realize the variation of disasters or loss related to typhoons with different levels. So an investigation for typhoons landing over China from 1996 to 2006 was initiated by CMA among operational departments or sectors concerned in Sep. 2006. The output would be a checklist describing the degree in disasters or loss related to different level typhoons. Up to now, it is still under development.
◆ Publication on Meteorological Disasters Yearbook of China
Meteorological Disasters Yearbook of China has been published every year since 2004. The Yearbooks collect and contain the main meteorological disasters took place in China in a past certain year such as typhoons, rainstorm and flood, drought, hail, tornadoes, dust storm, frozen disasters in low temperature, snowstorm, gales, dense fog, lighting strike, high temperature and heat wave and so on. The Yearbooks also include the analyses for their impacts on National Economy and information about severe meteorological disasters in the globe during the past certain year.
◆ Improvement in Typhoon Warning Issue System
Mobile phone messages have become a key tool for Chinese authorities who need to alert millions of villagers and fishermen during this year's unusually powerful typhoon season. In Fujian, authorities sent 18 million short messages service with storm information during five typhoons this year.
Moreover meteorological services at various levels have worked more closely with various sectors, such as media, communication and urban construction utilities in order to inform wider groups of the general public of the tracks and landing information of typhoons as well as relevant warning messages and preventive measures and suggestions through diversified media including radio, TV, websites, 96121 phone line, electronic display screens, and newspaper. Consequently, the general public is able to protect themselves and other people from disaster in a more consciously manner and the causalities would be greatly reduced.
c. Interaction with users, other Members, and/or other components
◆ Strengthening Governmental Role in DPP
Chinese authorities have been attaching importance to forecasting and warning information related to typhoon at all times. On the basis of exact forecasting and warning information, all level governments timely and rapidly make scientific decisions and arrangements for taking effective measures to prepare against and prevent typhoons with all societal resources. During this typhoon season, those local authorities of provinces affected by typhoons urgently and timely organzied population evacuation of 8.1458 million people in total. These measures effectively reduced casualtyies and mitigated losses induecd by typhoons to a minimum degree.
◆ Emergency Response Signal No. 1 on Super Typhoon Saomai
During the affecting time of Super Typhoon Saomai (0608), NMC (National Meteorological Center, CMA) made relatively exact forecasting and warning about potential landing site and severely serious impacts on coastal Southeast China for strong wind and heavy rain before Saomai landing over China. CMA later issued Emergency Response Signal No. 1 at 09:30UTC Aug. 10. NMC and all levels of meteorological bureaus timely took corresponding intensive observation and measures for tracking the Saomai’s potential trend. NMC also added detecting frequency and updated forecasting and warning information every half hour to all related organizations or departments. All levels of authorities both in Zhejiang and Fujian provinces timely organzied population evacuation of 1.6213 million people and over 70,000 fishermen in total return into some safety harbors to avoid strong gale caused by Saomai. These measures effectively mitigated casualtyies and properties losses.
d. Training Progress
Nil.
e. Research Progress
◆ The Mechanism Research on Disasters Related to Typhoon
Typhoon Rananim (0414) caused frequent landslides in coastal areas of East China, such as landslide in Zhangxi. Analysis indicates that under certain depth of cover layer, specific terrain and vegetation conditions, the conjunct effects of typhoon wind forcing and the eroding, softening and weight caused by typhoon rainstorm will make the landslide happen, which is different with the landslide under general rainfall.
◆ The Evaluation Method on Disasters Related to Typhoon
Moreover, a countrywide quantitative analysis and evaluation on typhoon disaster years were performed based on the activity features of typhoon over western North Pacific, social economic status and the situations of typhoon disasters in past twenty years.
f. Other Cooperative/RCPIP Progress
Nil.
3. Opportunities for Further Enhancement of Regional Cooperation
Nil
V. Typhoon that Impacted TC Members
1. Operational Forecast
From January to October in 2006, the 24h, 48h and 72h mean distance errors of subjective forecasts for tropical cyclones, which formed over Western North Pacific and South China Sea in National Meteorological Center (NMC) of CMA are about 127.7, 204.9 and 289.0km respectively (table 5.1). In the course of testing, we use real-time position of NMC as the basis of testing.
Table.5.1 Mean distance errors of prediction of tropical cyclones landed over China (km)
(Jan. 1st to Oct. 31st 2006, unit: km)
|Forecast time |24h |48h |72h |
|Mean distance errors |127.7 |204.9 |289.0 |
2. Characteristics of Landing Tropical Cyclones
As mentioned above, from Jan. 1st to Oct. 31st 2006, 20 tropical cyclones in total formed over the Western North Pacific and South China Sea. 6 TCs whose landing intensities are over tropical storm categories made their landfalls over China during this period (see table5.2).
Table.5.2. List of Tropical cyclones landing over China (Jan. 1st to Oct. 31st, 2006)
|TC Name/Number |Landing location |Time/Date |Maximum wind speed |Minimum SLP When |
| | | |when landing (m/s) |landing (hPa) |
|Chanchu (0601) |Raoping-Chenghai, Guangdong |18:15UTC,May.17 |35 |960 |
|Jelawat (0602) |Zhanjiang, Guangdong |23:40UTC Jun.28 |15 |998 |
|Bilis (0604) |Yilan, Taiwan province |15:00UTC,Jul.13 |30 |975 |
| |Xiapu, Fujian |04:50UTC,Jul.14 |30 |975 |
|Kaemi (0605) |Taidong, Taiwan province |15:45UTC, Jul.24 |40 |960 |
| |Jinjiang, Fujian |07:50UTC, Jul.25 |33 |975 |
|Prapiroon(0606) |Yangxi-Dianbai,Guangdong |11:20UTC,Aug.03 |33 |975 |
|Saomai(0608) |Cangnan, Zhejiang |09:25UTC, Aug.10 |60 |920 |
|Bopha (0609) |Taidong, Taiwan province |19:20UTC, Aug.08 |23 |990 |
Table 5.2 showed that the intensities of 6 TCs whose landing intensities are over tropical storm categories were relatively intense when they landed. Four of them were in typhoon and upwards of typhoon categories, one was severe tropical storm and one was tropical storm. Super Typhoon Saomai (0608) was the most severe tropical cyclones landed in 2006, its maximum wind speed near center reached 60m/s.
The following lists the characteristics for landing tropical cyclones.
• Landing time concentrated in midsummer
From July 13th to August 10th, there were 5 TCs landing over China Coastal Areas. The fact is that there is a TC landfall every six days during this period, the landing frequency is comparatively high. In September, no tropical cyclone landed over China. But there was more tropical cyclones landing over China at the same past time.
• Landing TCs with higher intensity
Out of 6 TCs whose landing intensities are over tropical storm categories, 4 TCs reach typhoon category or above. The strongest one is super Typhoon Saomai (0608) with the maximum winds of 60m/s near its center when landing over Zhejiang Province, and it is the most intense typhoon that hit China since 1949.
• The Earlier Landing Time with Stronger Intensity
Typhoon Chanchu (0601) is the first TC landing over China in 2006 and the first numbered TC this year. It landed over Raoping-chenghai, Guangdong Province at 18:15UTC on May 17. Its landing time was 44 days earlier than the average. It is the typhoon that hit Guangdong Province earliest and also one of the most intense typhoons that made landfall over China in May since 1949.
( Large Regions with Huge Disasters
More than 71 million people and 28,900 km2 farmland were affected by landing TCs in 2006. 1,261 people were killed and 420 people were missing. 670 thousands houses destroyed and 1,360 thousands houses were damaged. The direct economic losses were about 76.4 billion RMB Yuan.
VI. Resource Mobilization Activities
Nil.
VII. Report on Damage Caused By Cyclones, Floods and Drought
| |COUNTRY : |China |
PERIOD COVERED BY THIS REPORT
| |from : |1 |Oct. |2005 | |to : |30 |Sep. |2006 |
| | |(date, |month, |year) | | |(date, |month, |year) |
PREPARED AND SUBMITTED BY:
| | |
| | |
| |DATE PREPARED : |15 |Oct. |2006 |
| | |(date, |month, |year) |
INTRODUCTION
1. It was decided at the fourteenth session of the Typhoon Committee (Manila, November 1981) that information on damage caused by typhoons and floods should be compiled and sent to the Typhoon Committee Secretariat (TCS) before each annual session of the Typhoon Committee. This information shall consist of statistics on loss of human life, damage to houses, public facilities, agricultural products, etc.
2. At the fifth session of Management Board of the Typhoon Operational Experiment (TOPEX) (Tokyo, February 1982) UNDRO and LRCS were asked to co-operate in the preparation of a simple standard format for the region and make proposals for consideration by the Board at its sixth session.
3. The Board considered the proposed format at its sixth session (Bangkok, November 1982) and requested ESCAP and WMO in consultation with UNDRO and LRCS to revise the format with a view to incorporating more elaborately ESCAP long experience in flood statistics and to avoiding duplication with the ongoing efforts of ESCAP to improve disaster statistics.
4. Accordingly, this format was prepared for consideration at the third Planning Meeting for TOPEX (Tokyo, February 1993). The revised format was considered and adopted by the Meeting after some minor editorial amendments.
REPORT
1. This report should cover the total damage caused by typhoons and heavy rainfall, and associated storm-surges, floods, landslides, etc.
2. This report should be prepared by an official of the agency responsible for the disaster preparedness and relief in consultation with other agencies concerned.
* Such official should be designated by each member and reported to TCS beforehand.
FORMAT
1. This format is designed to aid compilation of data and information which are already collected in each country. In other words, it does not propose any change in the existing systems of disaster damage survey in the various countries.
2. If final official figures for the reporting period are not available, it is recommended that tentative data be reported with appropriate notations.
3. Although this format covers broad aspects of disasters and detailed data, if the country is not prepared to provide data on some of the items, those may be left blank. However, it is recommended that the country report provides data at least on vital items marked with an asterisk and enclosed thick lines which are regarded as basic elements in disaster statistics on typhoon damage.
4. Data processing involved in the estimation of damage costs require much time, therefore, if the data are still being processed at the time of reporting, it should be noted when such data will become available.
* = Applicable for the members of Typhoon Committee.
Noted
For consistency, please use the following necessary:
... data are not available or not separately reported
.. amount is negligible or nil
N/A item is not applicable
|GENERAL |Sequence No. |1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |
| | |0601 |0604 |0605 |0606 |0608 |0609 |
|Type of disasters | |CHANGCHU |BILIS |KAMEI |PRAPIROON |SAOMEI |BOPHA |
|Sequence number/code name of the typhoon and or type of disaster | | | | | | | |
|caused by it or by a combination of weather disturbances such as | | | | | | | |
|rainfall, strong winds, storm-surges, floods and landslides. | | | | | | | |
| | |18, MAY |13, JUL |24, JUL |3, AUG |10, AUG |09, AUG |
|Date or period of occurrence | | |14, JUL |25, HUL | | | |
| | |Guangdong |Fujian |Jiangxi |Guangdong |Zhejiang |Taiwan |
| | |Fujian |Zhejiang |Guangdong |Guangxi |Fujiang | |
| | |Zhejiang |Guangdong |Anhui |Hainan |Jiangxi | |
|Name of regions/areas seriously affected* | |Jiangxi |Hunan |Hunan | |Hubei | |
| | | |Jiangxi |Fujian | | | |
| | | |Guangxi |Guangxi | | | |
| | | |Shanghai |Hubei | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|HUMAN DAMAGE |Unit | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Dead and missing* |persons |36 |849 |111 |96 |588 | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Injured |persons | | | | | | |
|Homeless* |families |210400 |675200 |325400 |170600 |360200 | |
|Affected |persons |11118000 |31633000 |9452000 |11048000 |6950000 | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Total |persons | | | | | | |
1) Please specify other categories of disaster victims covered here e.g. assisted by emergency relief, activities, those whose normal activities are seriously disrupted.
Remarks:
|MATERIAL DAMAGE IN PHYSICAL TERMS |Sequence No. |1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |
| | | | | | | | |
|Houses and buildings |Unit | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Destroyed* |Units |15700 |353800 |143900 |37000 |123300 | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Damaged* |Units |34300 |468400 |156800 |171100 |531100 | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Affected* |Units | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Total* |Units | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Farmland | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Farmland |hectares |3203000 |13127000 |3301000 |6463000 |2663000 | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Agricultural Products | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Crops |tons | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Livestock |heads | | |4300 | |25900 | |
| |number | | | | | | |
|Fruit plants |hectares | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Others | | | | | | | |
2) Houses and buildings include public buildings and are classified into three groups: Those not able to be used without reconstruction enter into destroyed”, those which can be required enter into damaged” and others which were inundated damaged in minor parts or those fixtures and furniture were damaged enter into affected”.
3) Please specify other types of damage e.g. inundated marooned, evacuated.
4) Farmland affected are those buried, washed away, inundated and/or whose products were damaged.
5) If data are available for other products such as vegetables, marine products, forest products, please use this column.
Remarks:
| |Sequence No. |1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |
| | | | | | | | |
|Public works facilities |Unit | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Road |km | | |146 |649 |65 | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Bridge |sites | | |100 | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|River embankment |km | |47 |102 |9 | | |
| |hectares | | | | | | |
|Irrigation facilities |sites |205 |8362 |9623 |1714 |1204 | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Reservoir and dam |number | | | | | | |
| |number | | | | | | |
|Harbor and port |sites | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Other please specify | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Public Utilities | | | | | | | |
| |km | | | | | | |
|Railway |sites | | | | | | |
| |affected | | | | | | |
|Electric Supply |families | | | | | | |
| |sites (km) | |171 |314 |351 |263 | |
| |affected | | | | | | |
|Water Supply |families | | | | | | |
| |sites | | | | | | |
| |circuits | | | | | | |
|Telecommunication |sites (km) | |52 |7 |325 | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Other please specify | | | | | | | |
6) There are two types of classification methods in the public works facilities:
a) Classification in accordance with the nature of the service provided;
b) Classification in accordance with the administrative structure of the government. Although the format was prepared according to the former
classification, if necessary appropriate changes might be allowed.
7) Public utilities include both private owned and state owned facilities. Column of other can be used for the damage in airport, gas supply, etc.
| |Sequence No. |1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |
| | | | | | | | |
|Others |Unit | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Ships lost or damaged |number | | | | |2556 | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Landslide and collapse of slope |sites | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|MATERIAL DAMAGE IN MONETARY TERMS |Sequence |1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |
| | | | | | | | |
|Damage of houses and loss of private property* includes: | | | | | | | |
|houses and buildings for residential use, | | | | | | | |
|household furniture, appliances and possession, | | | | | | | |
|stored good and other assets of farmers’ and fishermen’s households| | | | | | | |
|Other | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Loss of agricultural production includes: | | | | | | | |
|crops, vegetables, fruits, etc. |ten thousand dollars|62150 |1750 |3625 |56425 |44075 | |
|livestock | | | | | | | |
|Other: Fisheries | | | | | | | |
8) Damage of houses and loss of private property includes damage to a) houses and buildings for residential use; b) household furniture, appliances and possessions; c) stored goods and other assets of farmers’ and fishermen households. Damage to shops and manufactures could be classified under item 34. Loss of industry, however, if such separation was not possible for small shops and home-industries, such damage could be included in this item with an appropriate note.
Damage costs can be estimated by means of surveys listing the number of houses and buildings, their floor area and extend of damage, priced according to the value of the building or per unit area of floor space. Damage to household articles and personal effects such as clothing, furniture, electric appliances, cars, etc. are included in this category. If information on the household articles of an average family is available; loss may be calculated by multiplying the number of affected families by their total properties and an assessed percentage of damage. Damage to stored goods and other assets of farmers’ and fishermen’s household can be assessed in a similar manner.
9) Loss of agricultural production includes damage to a) crops, vegetables, fruits, etc., b) livestock, c) marine products, d) forest products. Damage to agricultural products which had been stored in farmers’ houses or warehouses should be counted under item 32. Damage of houses and loss of private properties.
Crop damage can be estimated by multiplying the damaged crop area by the average loss per hectare and unit price of the crop, after considering the extent of damage to crops inundated and buried under debris. Loss of livestock can be estimated in the same manner by multiplying the head of stock lost by unit market price.
| |Sequence No. |1 |2 |3 |4 |5 |6 |
| | | | | | | | |
|Loss of industry |ten thousand dollars|10800 | |375 |13787.5 |7937.5 | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Loss of public work facilities includes items under III. MATERIAL |ten thousand dollars|12850 |7537.5 |4175 |8662.5 |4250 | |
|DAMAGE IN PHYSICAL TERMS | | | | | | | |
|road bridge, river embankment, etc., irrigation facility | | | | | | | |
|reservoir and dam, harbor and port, and public bridges | | | | | | | |
|rehabilitation cost of farmland at government expense | | | | | | | |
|Other | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Loss of public utilities includes items under III. MATERIAL DAMAGE | | | | | | | |
|IN PHYSICAL TERMS | | | | | | | |
|railway, electric supply, water supply, telecommunication | | | | | | | |
|Other | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | |
|Total estimated/counted damage cost, sum of items 32, 33, 34, 35, |ten thousand dollars|104200 |436000 |71162.5 |98262.5 |245687.5 | |
|36 | | | | | | | |
10) Loss of industry includes damage to buildings, factories, warehouses, machinery, stored good and other assets in factories and wholesale, retail and other service industries, but excludes agriculture, fishing and public utilities. Indirect losses due to suspension of routine activities are excluded here and if such data is available, please use column V. OTHER ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND DATA AVAILABLE.
Estimates of the damage incurred can be sought from the industries concerned.
11) Loss of public works facilities is the cost required for the following facilities at Government expense: a) road and bridges, b) flood control installations, c) agricultural land, d) irrigation and drainage installations, e) reservoirs and dams, f) harbor, fishing port and airport installations, g) erosion control and landslide structures, h) streets, urban sewerage system and other public works facilities.
12) Public utilities include both private owned and state owned facilities.
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