Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles
Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500
Presidential Cycles
Yardeni Research, Inc.
September 30, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306 jabbott@
Please visit our sites at blog.
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Stocks & Politics
1
First & Second Terms
2
Presidential Cycles
3-4
S&P 500 Index & P/E
5
Misc.
6-7
September 30, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Stocks & Politics
Figure 1.
4815
4015 3215
S&P 500 DURING SIX-MONTH PERIODS AROUND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS (weekly, ratio scale)
2415
1615
815
Sep
4815 4015
3215
2415
1615
815
3.5 -8.9 11.4 6.8 -0.7 0.5 -3.0 7.3 8.7 10.5 7.1 21.3 -18.3 9.0 -42.7 7.7 8.9
15
15
51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Note: Shaded areas in green (red) are when the S&P 500 is up (down) during the six months from September to February around presidential elections. Numbers above timeline are percentage changes over those six-month periods. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Figure 2.
6004
5004
FDR
4004
HST
3004
2004
DDE
JFK
RMN JEC
LBJ
GRF
S&P 500 INDEX* & PRESIDENTS
1004
BLUE DEMOCRATS vs. RED REPUBLICANS
(ratio scale)
RWR GHWB
WJC
GWB
BHO
6004
DJT
Sep
5004 4004
3004
2004
1004
285.6
118.7
78.7
3.5 26.3
220.9
203.0
-31.6
140.3 71.2
4
4
30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
* End-of-month daily data. Note: Blue (red) shades represents Democrats (Republicans) in White House. Data above timeline are percentage changes in S&P 500 for each shade. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 1 / September 30, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 3.
5004 4004 Roosevelt 3004
2004
First & Second Terms
Eisenhower Kennedy Nixon
Truman
Johnson Ford
Carter
Bush I
Bush II Obama
Reagan
Clinton
TrumpSep
5004 4004
3004
2004
1004
1004
S&P 500 INDEX* & PRESIDENTIAL FIRST TERMS
(ratio scale)
149.3
74.8 75.6
45.8 13.7
26.3 23.2
56.9 70.0
-8.2
57.9
4
4
30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
* End-of-month daily data through 8/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas represent first term of each president. Blue shade represents Democrats. Red shade represents Republicans. Data above timeline are percentage changes for each shade. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Figure 4.
4904
4204 3504
Roosevelt
2804
2104
1404
Eisenhower
Nixon
Reagan
S&P 500 INDEX* & PRESIDENTIAL SECOND TERMS
704
(ratio scale)
Clinton Bush II Obama
Sep
4904 4204
3504
2804
2104
1404
704
-38.4
24.5
-9.0
66.1
78.2 -25.5 52.2
4
4
30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
* End-of-month daily data through 8/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas represent second term of each president. Blue shade represents Democrats. Red shade represents Republicans. Data above timeline are percentage changes for each shade. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 2 / September 30, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Presidential Cycles
Figure 5.
44290033
3503
2803
S&P 500 INDEX* &
2103
FIRST YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now
1403
(average = 5.2%, ratio scale)
703
Sep 44290033 3503 2803 2103 1403
703
-11.9 46.6 -38.6 -17.9 30.7 10.3 -6.6 -14.3 23.1 9.1 -11.4 -17.4 -11.5 -9.7 26.3 27.3 7.1 31.0 -13.0 3.0 23.5 29.6 3
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20
* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas are the first years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the first year using daily price data. Source: Standard & Poor's.
3 25
Figure 6.
44290033 3503
2803
S&P 500 INDEX* &
2103
SECOND YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now
1403
(average = 4.8%, ratio scale)
703
Sep 44290033 3503 2803 2103 1403
703
-28.5 -5.9 25.2 12.4 -11.9 21.8 45.0 38.1 -11.8 -13.1 -0.1 -29.7 1.1 14.8 14.6 -6.6 -1.5 26.7 -23.4 13.6 12.8 11.4
3
3
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25
* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas are the second years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the second year using daily price data Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 3 / September 30, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Presidential Cycles
Figure 7.
44290033
3503
2803
S&P 500 INDEX* &
2103
THIRD YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now
1403
(average = 12.8%, ratio scale)
703
Sep 44290033 3503 2803 2103 1403
703
3 25
-47.1 41.4 -5.5 19.4 0.0 16.5 26.4 8.5 18.9 20.1 10.8 31.6 12.3 17.3 2.0 26.3 34.1 19.5 26.4 3.5 0.0 -0.7 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20
* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas are the third years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the third year using daily price data. Source: Standard & Poor's.
3 25
Figure 8.
44290033 3503
2803
S&P 500 INDEX* &
2103
FOURTH YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now
1403
(average = 5.7%, ratio scale)
703
Sep 44290033 3503 2803 2103 1403
703
3 25
-15.1 27.9 -15.3 13.8 -0.7 11.8 2.6 -3.0 13.0 7.7 15.8 19.1 25.8 1.4 12.4 4.5 20.3 -10.1 9.0 -38.5 13.4 9.5 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20
* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas are the fourth years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the fourth year using daily data. Source: Standard & Poor's.
3 25
Page 4 / September 30, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 9.
4850
4250
Kennedy
3650
Johnson
3050
(+69.6)
2450
1850
Nixon Ford (+1.3)
S&P 500 Index & P/E
Carter (+27.9)
Reagan Bush I (+229.7)
Clinton (+209.9)
Bush II (-40.0)
1250
S&P 500 INDEX* & PRESIDENTS' PARTIES (weekly, ratio scale)
650
Obama
Trump 9/24
4850 4250
(+140.3)
3650
3050
2450
1850
1250
650
50
50
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
* End-of-month daily data through August 31, 2016. Note: Shaded areas represent periods when one party holds the presidency. Blue shade represents Democrats. Red shade represents Republicans. Numbers in parenthesis show S&P 500 increase or decrease during each president. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Figure 10.
28
28
27 S&P 500 FORWARD P/E RATIO*
27
26 25 Carter
Reagan
Bush I
Clinton
Bush II
Obama
26 Trump 25
24
24
23
23
22
22
21
21
20
Sep 20
19
19
18
Average = 14.2
18
17
17
16
16
15
15
14
14
13
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
* Average monthly S&P 500 stock price index divided by S&P 500 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Page 5 / September 30, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 11.
33445050500000033333 2503 2003 1503 1003
503
Misc.
S&P 500 INDEX* & FIRST YEAR OF FIRST PRESIDENTIAL TERMS: 1928-now
(average = 6.4%, ratio scale)
Sep 33445050500000033333 2503 2003 1503 1003
503
-11.9 46.6
10.3 -6.6
23.1 9.1 -11.4 -11.5 -9.7
27.3 7.1
-13.0
23.5
3
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20
* End-of-month daily data through 12/31/2016. Note: Shaded areas are the first years of presidential terms. Data above timeline are percentage changes for the first year using daily price data. Source: Standard & Poor's.
3 25
Figure 12.
25
25
FDR Eisenhower Kennedy Nixon Carter Reagan
Clinton Bush II Obama Trump
Truman
Johnson Ford
Bush I
20
20
15
Aug 15
10
10
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT & PRESIDENTS
5
BLUE DEMOCRATS vs. RED REPUBLICANS
5
(120-month change)
0
0
-5
-5
46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Note: Blue (red) shades represents Democrats (Republicans) in White House. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Page 6 / September 30, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: S&P 500 Presidential Cycles
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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