Www.hoddereducation.co.uk



Volume 30, issue 3, February 2021US politicsThe 2020 US presidential electionHow to answer an Edexcel-style question on voting behaviour Evaluate the extent to which race, religion, gender and education play a significant role in the way people vote in US presidential elections, and the reasons for this.(30 marks)This potential exam question is drawn from the Edexcel specification and in particular Component 3, section 5.2.3, which states that you should be aware of the ‘Coalition of supporters for each party’. In considering these voters, one is asked ‘to consider how the following factors are likely to influence voting patterns and why; race, religion, gender and education. In doing so they must refer to a recent presidential election campaign (since 2000).’RaceYou are advised to restrict yourself to talking about the three largest groups: white (60%), black American (13.4%) and Hispanic (18%). White voters were found to favour the Republican candidate in 2020. This is in keeping with a trend that began in 1968. Republican policies appeal to many white voters regardless of their socioeconomic status. Many believe that the Republicans govern in their best interests. These white supporters are bothered by a progressive agenda touted by the Democrats and which they equate with bigger government and higher taxation. Trump’s ‘Keep America Great’ slogan played well with these voters. In 2016, Trump received 57% of the white vote in contrast to Hillary Clinton’s 37%. However, that margin was reduced from 20% to 17% in 2020. Many of the white voters who changed their vote to Democrat reside in swing states and played a role in Biden defeating Trump in these states. Surprisingly, perhaps, many appear to have been male voters.While Biden reduced the margin of white voter support for Republicans, Trump did the same in reducing the winning margins enjoyed by the Democrats in relation to major non-white groups. The Democratic margin in relation to black American voters still remained high, at 75%, but was the lowest in a presidential election since 2004. Trump increased his share of the black American vote from 8% in 2016 to 12% in 2020. Increased support among black American voters appears to have come mostly from male voters. A number of factors contributed to this. A ‘Black Voices for Trump’ campaign repeatedly and falsely claimed that Biden had called young black men ‘super predators’. However, some support for Trump from the black community came from voters who thought he was more likely to bring about economic prosperity and financial security.Trump also made inroads with sections of the Latino community, especially in Florida and Texas. This is a particularly complex group of voters as it is not homogenous but is made up of immigrants who were born in or who have ancestral links to such countries as Cuba, Mexico, Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Columbia and many more.Trump increased his share of the Latino vote in the 2016 election by 3% and the Latino Democratic margin of +33% was the lowest since the 2004 election. However, these gains made by Trump were offset by the loss of white voters, who make up a larger share of the electorate, as well as by the increased turnout by black American voters.Remember that it is important to answer the ‘why’ part of this question as well. For example, in explaining why Trump was able to attract an increased share of the Latino vote, one could refer to concerns raised by his campaign that a Biden-Harris ticket was a path towards socialism. This resonated with many Cuban-American and Venezuelan-American voters who reside in Florida. In Florida, Trump increased his share of the Hispanic vote by 11%, thus ensuring that the state stayed red.ReligionThe 2020 election result showed a softening of the important support of evangelicals and Catholics that was needed by Trump. Despite President Trump gifting these voting blocs three conservative justices on the Supreme Court and many more in the federal district courts, he haemorrhaged votes among these important groups of voters.Trump’s decline among evangelicals was moderate. Early indications are that he took approximately 77% of the evangelical vote. Despite the impressive figure, it is down on the previous election, where he obtained 81% of this vote share. In particular, many young evangelical voters were unfavourably disposed to Trump. Biden also made a strong play for the votes of this community, deploying evangelical language in an attempt to connect with them.Catholic support for Trump slipped below 50%, perhaps to as low at 47%. This can be contrasted with 2016, when he obtained 52% of the Catholic vote. Joe Biden is a committed Catholic and this may explain why some Catholics moved their vote. Biden, however, certainly did not experience the electoral support that the first and — until Biden — only ever Catholic president received, when John F. Kennedy obtained nearly 80% of the Catholic vote in 1960. However, the implications of Trump’s loss of these voters was key in his defeats in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.Jewish voters came out strong for Joe Biden. He secured 77% of the Jewish vote, considerably higher than the 71% that Hillary Clinton obtained in 2016. Trump only found support among 21% of Jewish voters. This surprised some, who expected him to improve on his 2016 tally after his efforts to secure the normalisation of relations between Israel and a number of neighbouring Arab states. However, the most important issues for Jewish voters were the coronavirus pandemic, climate change and healthcare. In light of this, it is unsurprising that the preferred candidate of many Jewish voters was Joe Biden.GenderIn the simplest analysis of gender voting, men are seen to be more likely to support Republicans and women are more likely to support the Democrats. In 2020, 53% of men voted for Trump, while 57% of women voted for Biden.The female vote is particularly important as women are more reliable voters. In the two previous elections of 2012 and 2016, women outvoted men by approximately 10 million ballots. While many white male voters have migrated to the Republican Party since the 1980s, more women have been supportive of the Democrats, whose policies and ideas are more in accord with the priorities of women.When gender and ethnicity are combined, a more complex picture emerges. In the 2020 election, 55% of white women voted for Trump, despite polling data suggesting that Biden was polling well with white women voters.EducationThe educational qualifications of many voters became a topic of hot discussion in 2016 as the educational divide was seen to be far greater than in previous elections. This trend continued in 2020. Fifty-five percent of voters with a university degree voted for Biden, and 42% voted for Trump. This is an increase on the 9% gap that Clinton enjoyed over Trump in 2016.There was no gap found between voters who do not have a university degree. However, if one adds race to the equation, then the picture changes, with 57% of white non-college voters found to support the Republican party.ConclusionIn summary, each of these categories are significant factors to consider when looking at how Americans vote. They are even more useful when combined. For example, when looking at the Hispanic vote, it is useful to add gender to the mix, where there are considerable differences in how Latinos and Latinas vote. Similarly, when looking at gender, and particularly how females vote, it becomes more useful to add race to the mix, as psephologists find different voting patterns between white and non-white voters. It should also be noted that there are other factors which are important to consider, particularly geography and age, when looking at voting behaviour in the USA.Take a look online at the Pew Research Center, which publishes detailed and trustworthy data and reporting pertaining to US elections and voting behaviour.Clare Stansfield is Head of Politics at Francis Holland School, LondonThis resource is part of Politics Review, a magazine?written for A-level students?by subject experts. To subscribe to the full magazine go to: ................
................

In order to avoid copyright disputes, this page is only a partial summary.

Google Online Preview   Download