Egg Markets Overview - Agricultural Marketing Service

Egg Markets Overview

A weekly publication of the USDA AMS Livestock and Poultry Program, Agricultural Analytics Division

May 28, 2021

Wholesale prices for cartoned shell eggs held steady through the week on moderate supplies and adequate offerings. Trading was slow to moderate. Wholesale prices for graded loose eggs weakened though the week as offerings became more available and supplies held at a comfortable level. The pace of trading has slowed. Prices for national trading of trucklot quantities of graded, loose, White Large shell eggs declined 2% (from $0.635 to $0.625 per dozen) with a soft undertone. The wholesale price on the New York market for Large cartoned shell eggs delivered to retailers was unchanged at $0.93 per dozen with a steady undertone. The Midwest wholesale price for Large, white, shell eggs delivered to warehouses was unchanged at $0.77 per dozen with a steady undertone. Prices paid to producers in the Midwest for Large cartoned shell eggs were unchanged at $0.58 per dozen. The California benchmark for Large shell eggs increased 12% (from $1.24 to $1.39 per dozen) with a steady undertone. Delivered prices on the California wholesale loose egg market rose 11% (from $0.918 to $1.017 per dozen) with a steady undertone.

Loose Shell Egg, Large, White, National Index (f.o.b. dock, cents per dozen)

270

2019

2020

2021

225

180

135

90

45

0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

week

Consumer demand for shell eggs continued to improve over the past week as an active retail promotional cycle provided some incentive to stimulate consumer buying. Demand is expected to soften over the Memorial Day weekend as consumers focus on outdoor grilling fare. Retail featuring of cage-free eggs has slowed following an extended period of activity. Grocers have promoted cage-free shell eggs at an active pace, averaging 163% in 2021 to-date over the same period last year and at an average ad price 17% lower. These efforts have been meeting with some measure of success if not subtly encouraging consumer acceptance of cage-free eggs by keeping price levels on sale at competitive levels.

U.S. Table Egg Demand (Shell Egg Demand Index)

40

2019

2020

2021

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

week

sale price per dozen faeature rate (100's)

Promotional activity for conventional shell eggs in retail outlets across the country falls sharply as the Memorial Day weekend arrives. The average ad price regains all of last week's loss, up 22% (from $0.86 to $1.05 per dozen) as grocers shift focus to outdoor grilling fare. Promotional activity for specialty shell eggs rises led by a robust campaign for nationally-branded, nutritionally-enhanced types. Feature activity for UEP-defined cage-free shell eggs took a less prominent role in store circulars this week and accounts for 17% of all shell egg types on feature. The average ad price increased 13% (from $2.33 to $2.63) and the average ad price spread between 12-packs of Large caged eggs and UEP cage-free eggs widened by $0.11 per dozen (7%) to a spread of $1.58.

The overall inventory of shell eggs declined 3% and the nation-wide inventory of Large eggs was down 4%. The inventory of Large eggs in the key Midwest production region declined by 9% as active retail promotions over the past cycle helped to clear stocks. The inventory share of Large class shell eggs was unchanged at a 49% share of all shell egg

Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division

Supermarket Cage-Free Shell Egg Featuring - LG Brown Cage-Free Shell Egg Ad Price vs. Feature Rate

Advertised prices to consumers by U.S. supermarkets for UEP-defined cage-free shell eggs $2.8

Feature Rate

Ad Price 100

$2.7

90

80

$2.6 70

$2.5

60

$2.4

50

40 $2.3

30

$2.2

20

$2.1

10

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

Egg Markets Overview

stocks on inventory at the start of the week. Stocks of cage-free eggs declined 2% as movement to support recent retail activity slowed. Breaking stock inventories declined 3% as breakers drew from owned stocks to offset reduced spot market offerings. Total table egg production for the week was unchanged from the prior week and is 3.5% over last year's level, about 7.8 million dozens more.

The wholesale price for breaking stock in the Central States held steady at $0.51 per dozen with a steady undertone. Offerings are light to moderate on moderate supplies with normal breaking schedules. Interest was moderate to good and trading was slow to moderate. The volume of eggs processed over the past week was down a half percent at a 30% share of weekly table egg production. Production of whole egg was down 4% while production of whites was up 5.5% and yolk production was up nearly 1%. Production of dried eggs increased 43% as levels returned to normal following scheduled maintenance. Inedible egg production declined 3%.

Wholesale prices for whole certified liquid whole eggs are not tested with a steady undertone. Offerings are light and trading is moderate. The wholesale price for frozen whole egg products was unchanged at $0.80 per pound and the price for liquid whites was unchanged at $0.71 per pound. The undertone is steady. Offerings and supplies are light to moderate for moderate to good demand. The pace of trading is moderate to active. Wholesale prices for dried eggs are unchanged with whole dried egg at $3.15 per pound; yolk at $2.35 per pound, and albumen at $4.95 per pound. The undertone is steady with light to moderate offerings and supplies. Demand is moderate to good and focused on contractual business. Trading is moderate to, at times, active.

According to NASS, the April monthly volume of frozen eggs in storage declined 10% from March, 45% under the April 2020 level. This is the lowest level of egg product stocks since 1916. Stocks of whole frozen egg increased 4% from last month and were 51% under year ago levels. The share of whole egg stocks gained 6% to a 43% of total frozen stocks. Stocks of frozen yolk decreased 13% during the month but were 35% of the year ago level. Stocks of frozen egg whites decreased 15%, 20% over last year. Stocks of unclassified eggs decreased 19% and their share of stocks declined 4% to 40% of all frozen egg products in storage.

Cage-free commitments as of May 2021 were about unchanged, requiring 66.7 billion cage-free eggs per year to meet 100% of needs from an approximate cage-free flock of 222 million hens (70% of the U.S. non-organic flock), indicating a shortage of 148 million hens from the current non-organic cage-free flock of 74.4 million hens. The lay rate for non-organic cage-free production is currently estimated at 82%.

Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division

Weekly Eggs Processed (30-dozen cases)

1.8

2019

2020

2021

1.7

million 30-dozen cases

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics

week

Eggs Processed Week-to-Week Change total share whole whites yolks dried inedible

-0.4% 0.0% -3.8% 5.5% 0.7% 43.0% -3.3%

pounds (millions)

Monthly Frozen Egg in Cold Storage (all types; end of the month)

48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20

Source: USDA AMS L&P Agricultural Analytics; NASS

2021 2020 2019

Cage-Free Flock (% of total U.S. flock as of May 2021)

35%

organic cage-free

30%

25%

% of US flock

20% 23.3%

15%

10%

5% 7.0%

0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Egg Markets Overview

Shell Eggs Market Price Comparisons

(as of May 28, 2021)

(National Index on a loose-egg basis, all other prices for cartoned eggs; LG White avg prices in cents per dozen)

sector markup

-7%

33%

5%

prior current

loose

carton

carton

carton

carton

62.5

58.0

77.0

81.0

105.0

National Index producer price delivered delivered store retail on ad

warehouse

door

Producer, warehouse, & store door = MW; retail no sale NY market; retail on sale Nat'l Retail Feature; loose eggs include minimal

U.S. Table Egg Layer Flock Estimates (layers by system in millions)

System Caged1 Cage-Free

May 2021

Flock

%

222.3 69.7%

96.7 30.3%

Organic Total Organic

22.3 7.0% 14.1 4.4%

Free-range

5.5 1.7%

Pastured

2.7 0.8%

Non-Organic Total Barn/Aviary

74.4 23.3% 69.6 21.8%

Free-range

2.8 0.9%

Pastured

2.1 0.7%

1 - battery and enriched systems Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division

Key Egg Markets Overview

Recent History

28-May % Change 21-May 14-May 7-May 30-Apr 23-Apr

SHELL EGGS (Large, White, conventional in cents per dozen)

National, Loose, (f.o.b. dock prices)

62.46

-2% 63.52 52.28 54.10 54.84 61.54

New York, Cartoned (price to retailers)

93.00

0% 93.00 93.00 93.00 94.00 102.00

Midwest, Cartoned (price dlvrd to warehouse)

77.00

0% 77.00 77.00 78.00 85.00 87.00

California, Cartoned, benchmark

139.00

12% 124.00 124.00 126.00 136.00 140.00

National Retail Shell Egg (dollars per dozen) Conventional, Large, White Cage-Free, Large, Brown/White

1.05

22% 0.86 1.09 1.11 1.00 1.14

2.63

13% 2.33 2.39 2.50 2.35 2.70

EGG PRODUCTS (f.o.b. dock prices; dollars per pound)

Central States Breaking Stock (delivered prices)

51.00

Whole Frozen Eggs

80.00

Whole Dried Eggs

3.15

Processed Share of Weekly Egg Production

29.8%

0% 0% 0% 0.0%

51.00 80.00

3.15 29.8%

50.00 80.00

3.15 30.2%

50.00 80.00

3.15 30.6%

49.00 81.00

3.15 29.1%

53.00 86.00

3.15 29.0%

SHELL EGG DEMAND INDICATOR (no units) Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics

-7.5

1.3 -8.8 -11.2 -14.2 -10.9 -10.2

Key Shell Egg Markets Snapshot - 2021

(Large, White, Conventional Shell Eggs in cents per dozen)

National, Loose, (f.o.b. dock prices) New York, Cartoned (price to retailers) Midwest, Cartoned (price dlvrd to warehouse) 1 California, Cartoned, benchmark Central States Breaking Stock (delivered prices) 1 Whole Frozen Egg Products (f.o.b. dock prices) Whole Dried Egg Products (f.o.b. dock prices) Natl Average Retail Ad Price - Conventional Natl Average Retail Ad Price - Cage-free2 Shell Egg Demand Indicator 1 mostly high; 2 non-organic

28-May 62.5 93.0 77.0 139.0 51.0 80.0 3.15 1.05 2.63 -7.5

Change -2% 0% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% 22% 13% 1.3

21-May 57.6 93.0 77.0 124.0 90.0 80.0 3.15 0.86 2.33 -8.8

2021 High 113.5 12-Mar 152.0 10-Mar 135.0 15-Mar 196.0 15-Mar 73.0 12-Mar 96.0 26-Mar 3.15 19-Mar 1.59 02-Apr 2.70 23-Apr 18.1 01-Jan

2021 Low 48.2 08-Jan 93.0 04-May 77.0 01-Jan 124.0 10-May 34.0 08-Jan 63.0 08-Jan 2.90 15-Jan 0.78 29-Jan 1.84 01-Jan -14.2 05-May

Egg Markets Overview

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