PDF Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 Trailing P/E Ratios
S&P 500 Trailing P/E Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
March 30, 2023
Dr. Edward Yardeni
516-972-7683 eyardeni@
Joe Abbott
732-497-5306 jabbott@
Mali Quintana
480-664-1333 aquintana@
Please visit our sites at blog.
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Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
Trailing P/E
1-5
March 30, 2023 / S&P 500 Trailing P/E Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Trailing P/E
Figure 1.
32
32
S&P 500 P/E RATIOS
S&P 500 P/Es
Trailing (using operating earnings)* (19.6)
28
Forward** (17.3)
28
24
24
20
Q4
20
Mar
16
16
12
12
8
8
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
* Using quarterly average of daily data for S&P 500 price index, and 4-quarter trailing operating earnings (I/B/E/S data). ** S&P 500 stock price index divided by S&P 500 12-month forward analysts' consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor's.
Figure 2.
50
S&P 500 P/E RATIOS
45
50
Capped at 45 due to extreme values
45
40
40
35
S&P 500 P/Es
35
Trailing (using reported earnings)* (22.3)
Forward** (17.3)
30
30
25
25
Q4
20
20
Mar
15
15
10
10
5
5
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
* Using 4-quarter trailing reported earnings. ** S&P 500 stock price index divided by S&P 500 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings.
Note: Shaded red areas denote S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor's.
Page 1 / March 30, 2023 / S&P 500 Trailing P/E Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Trailing P/E
Figure 3.
50
P/E RATIO FOR S&P 500 (Using Trailing Reported Earnings)*
50 Capped at 45 due to extreme values
40
40
30
30
Q4
20
20
10
10
0
0
35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
* Using 4-quarter trailing reported earnings. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Figure 4. The long view shows that trailing P/E not useful in market timing.
35
35
S&P 500 P/E BASED ON TRAILING EARNINGS*
Capped at 30 due to extreme values
30
30
25
25
Average = 16.1
Q4
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
* Using quarterly average of monthly data for S&P 500 price index and 4-quarter trailing reported earnings. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: Standard & Poor's.
Page 2 / March 30, 2023 / S&P 500 Trailing P/E Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Trailing P/E
Figure 5.
35
35
S&P 500 P/E BASED ON TRAILING EARNINGS vs CPI
30
Trailing P/E* (19.6)
30
CPI
(yearly percent change) (6.0)
25
25
20
Q4
20
15
15
10
10
Feb
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
* Using quarterly average of daily data for S&P 500 price index, and 4-quarter trailing reported earnings through Q4-1988, then operating earnings. Source: Standard & Poor's and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets.
Figure 6.
35
35
RULE OF 20: S&P 500 P/E BASED ON TRAILING EARNINGS vs CPI INFLATION
30
30
25
25
20
Q4
20
15
15
Feb
10
Trailing P/E* (19.6)
10
20 Minus CPI (yearly percent change) (14.0)
5
5
0
0
35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
* Using quarterly average of daily data for S&P 500 price index, and 4-quarter trailing reported earnings through Q3-1988, then operating earnings. Source: Standard & Poor's and Bureau of Economic Analysis. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets.
Page 3 / March 30, 2023 / S&P 500 Trailing P/E Ratios
Yardeni Research, Inc.
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