Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios

Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.

December 20, 2021

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683 eyardeni@

Joe Abbott

732-497-5306 jabbott@

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333 aquintana@

Please visit our sites at blog.

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Median Forward P/E: S&P 500 Forward P/E: Russell 2000 P/E & PEG: S&P 500 Trailing P/E P/E Forward P/E: Growth vs Value Miscellaneous

4 5 6 7 8-9 10-11 12-16

December 20, 2021 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 1.

30

30

28 FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES*

28

(daily)

26

26

24

22

S&P 500 LargeCap (20.9)

20

24

22 12/14

20

18

18

16

16

14

14

12

12

10

10

8

8

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

24

24

22

22

20

S&P 400 MidCap (15.9)

20

18

18

16

12/14

16

14

14

12

12

10

10

8

8

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

28

28

26

26

24

24

S&P 600 SmallCap (14.4)

22

22

20

20

18

18

16

16

14

12/14

14

12

12

10

10



8

8

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Blue shaded areas are correction declines of 10% to less than 20%. Yellow areas are bull markets. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor's.

Page 1 / December 20, 2021 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 2.

32

32

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500 INDEXES*

(weekly)

28

28

24

24

S&P 500 LargeCap (21.2)

12/10

20

20

16

16

12

12

8

8

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

24

24

20

S&P 400 MidCap (16.1)

20

16

12/10

16

12

12

8

8

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

28

28

24

24

S&P 600 SmallCap (14.8)

20

20

16

16

12/10

12

12



8

8

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Weekly stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets.

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor's.

Page 2 / December 20, 2021 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Figure 3.

28

28

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*

26

(daily)

26

24

S&P Forward P/Es

22

S&P 500 (20.8)

S&P 400 (15.8)

20

S&P 600 (14.4)

24

22 12/17

20

18

18

16

16

14

14

12

12

10

10



8

8

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Source: Standard & Poor's and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 4.

30

30

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES*

28

(weekly)

28

26

26

24

24

22

22

12/10

20

20

18

18

16

16

14

14

12

S&P 500 LargeCap (21.2)

12

S&P 400 MidCap (16.1)

10

S&P 600 SmallCap (14.8)

10



8

8

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 3 / December 20, 2021 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Median Forward P/E: S&P 500

Figure 5.

24

24

FORWARD P/E RATIO FOR S&P 500 (MEDIAN)

22

22

20

Oct

20

18

18

16

16

14

14

12

12

10

10

S&P 500 Median Forward P/E (19.8)

8

8



6

6

82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 6.

30

30

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P 500 (ACTUAL & MEDIAN)

25

25

Nov

20

20

15

15

10

10

S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio* (20.8)

S&P 500 Median Forward P/E (19.8)

5

5

78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 4 / December 20, 2021 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



Forward P/E: Russell 2000

Figure 7.

70

70

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR RUSSELL 2000*

(weekly)

P/E capped at 60 due to extreme values.

60

60

Russell 2000 (25.5)

Russell 2000 Growth (45.3)

Russell 2000 Value (17.6)

50

50

40

40

30

30

12/9

20

20



10

10

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 8.

40

FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR US SMALLCAP*

35

40

P/E capped at 35 due to extreme values.

35

Russell 2000 (25.5)

S&P 600 SmallCap (14.8)

30

30

25

12/9

25

20

20

15

15



10

10

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Price divided by 12-month (52-week) forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly data through December 2005, weekly thereafter. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 5 / December 20, 2021 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



P/E & PEG: S&P 500

Figure 9.

30

S&P 500 P/E

28

(using reported trailing earnings 1960-1978 forward earnings* 1979-present)

26

30 Latest (21.2) 28

26

24

24

22

22

12/9

20

20

18

18

16

16

14

14

12

12

10

10

8

8

6

6



4

4

60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates of S&P 500 operating earnings per share for current year and next year. Monthly from January 1979 through April 1994, then weekly. Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor's.

Figure 10.

2.50

2.50

S&P 500 VALUATION: PEG RATIO

2.25

2.25

2.00

2.00

PEG Ratio* (1.0)

1.75

1.75

1.50

1.50

1.25

Dec

1.25

1.00

1.00

12/2



.75

.75

95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

* Forward P/E divided by LTEG, which is 5-year forward consensus expected annual earnings growth. Monthly through 2005, then weekly. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv .

Page 6 / December 20, 2021 / Stock Market Briefing: Selected P/E Ratios

Yardeni Research, Inc.



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