WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050

WORLD AGRICULTURE TOWARDS 2030/2050

The 2012 Revision

PROOF COPY

Nikos Alexandratos and Jelle Bruinsma

Global Perspective Studies Team

ESA Working Paper No. 12-03 June 2012

Agricultural Development Economics Division Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

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World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision

Nikos Alexandratos and Jelle Bruinsma Global Perspective Studies Team

FAO Agricultural Development Economics Division

Abstract

This paper is a re-make of Chapters 1-3 of the Interim Report World Agriculture: towards 2030/2050 (FAO, 2006). In addition, this new paper includes a Chapter 4 on production factors (land, water, yields, fertilizers). Revised and more recent data have been used as basis for the new projections, as follows: (a) updated historical data from the Food Balance Sheets 1961-2007 as of June 2010; (b) undernourishment estimates from The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2010 (SOFI) and related new parameters (CVs, minimum daily energy requirements) are used in the projections; (c) new population data and projections from the UN World Population Prospects - Revision of 2008; (d) new GDP data and projections from the World Bank; (e) anew base year of 2005/07 (the previous edition used the base year 1999/01); (f) updated estimates of land resources from the new evaluation of the Global Agroecological Zones (GAEZ) study of FAO and IIASA; (g) updated estimates of existing irrigation, renewable water resources and potentials for irrigation expansion; and (h) changes in the text as required by the new historical data and projections.

Like the interim report, this re-make does not include projections for the Fisheries and Forestry sectors. Calories from fish are, however, included, in the food consumption projections, along with those from other commodities (e.g. spices) not analysed individually; and estimates of land under forest and in protected areas from the GAEZ are taken into account and excluded from the estimates of land areas suitable for crop production into which agriculture could expand in the future.

The projections presented reflect the magnitudes and trajectories we estimate the major food and agriculture variables may assume in the future; they are not meant to reflect how these variables may be required to evolve in the future in order to achieve some normative objective, e.g. ensure food security for all, eliminate undernourishment or reduce it to any given desired level, or avoid food overconsumption leading to obesity and related NonCommunicable Diseases.

Keywords: agricultural outlook, food demand, production growth, nutrition, crop production, global outlook, land use, irrigation demand, crop yields

JEL classification: FO1, O13, Q11, Q17, Q18, Q21, Q24, Q25

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Acknowledgements This paper was prepared by Nikos Alexandratos (Chapters 1, 2 and 3 and the related quantifications) and Jelle Bruinsma (Chapter 4) who also performed the underlying calculations except for the calculation of water requirements in irrigation which was performed by Jippe Hoogeveen. Comments by Kostas Stamoulis, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Piero Conforti, Seth Meyer and the provision of data and projections by the team that prepared the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook are gratefully acknowledged, as are comments on Chapter 4 by G?nther Fischer, Harrij van Velthuizen and Freddy Nachtergaele (on GAEZ), Jean-Marc Faur?s, Jacob Burke and Jippe Hoogeveen (on irrigation), Simon Mack (on livestock), Jan Poulisse, Harold van der Zande and Patrick Heffer (on fertilizers). The authors alone are responsible for any remaining errors. The opinions expressed in this paper are the authors' and do not necessarily reflect those of FAO. Citation Alexandratos, N. and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: the 2012 revision. ESA Working paper No. 12-03. Rome, FAO. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. In the presentation of statistical material, countries are, where appropriate, aggregated in the following main economic groupings: "Developed countries" (including the developed market economies or `Industrial countries' and the Transition countries) and "Developing countries". The designation "developed" and "developing" economies is intended for statistical convenience and does not necessarily express a judgement about the stage of development reached by a particular country

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Contents

CHAPTER 1 OVERVIEW ................................................................................................1

CHAPTER 2 PROSPECTS FOR FOOD AND NUTRITION ........................................24

2.1 The broad picture: historical developments and present situation............................24 2.1.1 Progress made in raising food consumption per person ............................24 2.1.2 The incidence of undernourishment ? past and present.............................27

2.2 The outlook for food and nutrition in the projections...............................................30 2.2.1 Demographics ............................................................................................30 2.2.2 Overall economy........................................................................................36 2.2.3 Food security outcomes .............................................................................38

2.3 Structural changes in the commodity composition of food consumption.................43 2.4 Concluding remarks ..................................................................................................51

ANNEX 2.1 India's Food Demand Projections in a Global Context................................53

CHAPTER 3 PROSPECTS FOR AGRICULTURE AND MAJOR COMMODITY GROUPS ............................................................................61

3.1 Aggregate agriculture: historical trends and prospects .............................................61 3.2 Cereals ...................................................................................................................67 3.3 Livestock commodities .............................................................................................75

3.3.1 Past and present .........................................................................................75 3.3.2 Prospects for the livestock sector...............................................................79 3.4 Oilcrops, vegetable oils and products .......................................................................85 3.4.1 Past and present .........................................................................................85 3.4.2 Prospects for the oilcrops sector ................................................................88 3.5 Roots, tubers and plantains .......................................................................................90 3.5.1 Past and present .........................................................................................90 3.5.2 Roots, tubers and plantains in the future....................................................91 3.6 Sugar ...................................................................................................................92

ANNEX 3.1 Biofuels and Climate Change in the Projections .......................................97

CHAPTER 4 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND NATURAL RESOURCE USE......................................................................................99

4.1 Production growth in agriculture ..............................................................................99 4.2 Crop production ......................................................................................................102

4.2.1 Sources of growth ....................................................................................103 4.2.2 Land with crop production potential........................................................106 4.2.3 Expansion of land in crop production......................................................111 4.2.4 Expansion of irrigated land......................................................................117 4.2.5 Irrigation water requirements and pressure on water resources ..............122 4.2.6 Crop yield growth ....................................................................................125 4.2.7 Fertilizer consumption .............................................................................132 4.3 Livestock production ..............................................................................................137

APPENDIX 1 Countries and Commodities Included in the Analysis.............................140

APPENDIX 2 Summary Note on Methodology..............................................................143

REFERENCES .................................................................................................................146

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Boxes

Box 1.1

Measuring the increase in aggregate agricultural production (all crop and livestock products) ....................................................................7

Box 2.1 Box 2.2 Box 2. 3

Measuring the incidence of undernourishment: the key role of the estimates of food available for direct human consumption ....................28 Countries with high population growth to 2050 and limited agricultural resources: an untenable combination? ......................................32 Population growth and global food demand.................................................33

Box 4.1 Box 4.2 Box 4. 3

Projecting land use and yield growth .........................................................105 Agro-ecological zone (AEZ) methodology ................................................108 Assumed levels of inputs and management................................................108

Tables

Table 1.1

Key Variables Beyond 2050.........................................................................21

Table 2.1 Table 2.2 Table 2.3 Table 2.4 Table 2.5

Table 2.6

Per capita food consumption (kcal/person/day) ...........................................25 Incidence of undernourishment, developing countries.................................27 Population data and projections....................................................................33 GDP assumptions and implied convergence indicators ...............................38 Changes in the commodity composition of food by major country groups ..............................................................................................49 Changes in the commodity composition of food, developing regions .........50

Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Table 3.3

Table 3.4 Table 3.5 Table 3.6 Table 3.7 Table A.3.1

Growth Rates of Demand and Production, percent p.a. ...............................66 Cereal balances, world and major country groups .......................................73 Net trade balances, wheat, rice, coarse grains, developing countries by region (million tonnes) ............................................................................74 Meat: aggregate production and demand......................................................78 Milk and Dairy Products (liquid milk equivalent)........................................79 Major oilcrops, world production.................................................................86 Net trade balances for oilseeds, oils and products (in oil equivalent) ..........87 World use of crops for biofuels........................................................................ 97

Table 4.1 Table 4.2 Table 4.3 Table 4.4 Table 4.5 Table 4.6 Table 4.7 Table 4.8 Table 4.9 Table 4.10 Table 4.11

Increases in population, calorie supply and agricultural production ..........100 Agricultural production growth rates (percent p.a.) ...................................101 Annual crop production growth (percent p.a.) ...........................................102 Sources of growth in crop production (percent) .........................................103 Sources of growth for major cereals in developing countries ....................104 Land with rain-fed crop production potential (world; million ha) .............109 Land with rain-fed crop production potential by region (million ha).........111 Total arable land in use: data and projections ............................................114 Arable land in use, cropping intensities and harvested land.......................116 Area equipped for irrigation .......................................................................119 Annual renewable water resources and irrigation water withdrawal..........124

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