Zacks Investment Research
July 14, 2006
Equity Research
Scott A. Jaggers, CFA
Bank of the Ozarks, Inc.
Current Recommendation
Prior Recommendation
Date of Last Change
Current Price (07/13/06)
Six-Month Target Price
155 North Wacker Drive
Chicago, IL 60606
(OZRK-NSDQ)
Hold
Sell
05/23/2006
$30.02
$32.00
OUTLOOK
OZRK hosted a conference call this morning after its
earnings release last night. Nothing in the call
changed our view relative to what we discussed in our
Note. Management did clarify that there have been no
bonus accruals so far in 2006. The quarter was solid
(EPS was $0.02 better than our estimate), but not
quite as strong as the headline implies. NII was below
our projections, owing to a 23 bp decrease in NIM.
The surprise came on the expense side, as expected
growth from new branches and new hires was not
evident. Our near-term estimates are little-changed,
while 07 is coming down marginally. Our price target
is falling in line with lower industry multiples overall.
We view the $0.40 annual dividend as secure.
SUMMARY DATA
52-Week High
52-Week Low
One-Year Return (%)
Beta
Average Daily Volume (sh)
$38.42
$30.02
-6.72
0.42
72,131
Below Avg.
Small-Growth
Banks-Southeast
82 of 105
Risk Level
Type of Stock
Industry
Zacks Rank in Industry
ZACKS ESTIMATES
Shares Outstanding (mil)
Market Capitalization ($mil)
Short Interest Ratio (days)
Institutional Ownership (%)
Insider Ownership (%)
17
$502
54.09
62
32
Annual Cash Dividend
Dividend Yield (%)
$0.40
1.33
(in millions of $)
2004
2005
2006
2007
Q1
(Mar)
18 A
21 A
24 A
25 E
Q2
(Jun)
20 A
22 A
23 A
28 E
Q3
(Sep)
21 A
23 A
24 E
29 E
Q4
(Dec)
20 A
23 A
25 E
31 E
Year
(Dec)
79 A
88 A
96 E
114 E
Q4
(Dec)
$0.42 A
$0.50 A
$0.53 E
$0.65 E
Year
(Dec)
$1.56 A
$1.88 A
$1.99 E
$2.36 E
Earnings Per Share
5-Yr. Historical Growth Rates
Sales (%)
Earnings Per Share (%)
Dividend (%)
17.6
32.8
31.7
P/E using TTM EPS
P/E using 2006 Estimate
P/E using 2007 Estimate
15.4
15.1
12.7
Zacks Rank
Revenue
4
(EPS is operating earnings before non recurring items)
2004
2005
2006
2007
Q1
(Mar)
$0.36 A
$0.44 A
$0.50 A
$0.53 E
Q2
(Jun)
$0.38 A
$0.46 A
$0.47 A
$0.57 E
Q3
(Sep)
$0.40 A
$0.48 A
$0.49 E
$0.61 E
Zacks Projected EPS Growth Rate - Next 5 Years %
Consensus Projected EPS Growth - Next 5 Years %
? Copyright 2006, Zacks Investment Research. All Rights Reserved.
14
OVERVIEW
Headquartered in Little Rock, AR, Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. (OZRK) is the holding company for statechartered Bank of the Ozarks. OZRK provides a range of retail and commercial banking services
through 56 full-service offices in Arkansas and three in Texas, plus three loan production offices in
Arkansas and North Carolina. OZRK continues to grow primarily through a de novo branching strategy
which it initiated in 1994. Expansion plans for 2006 include a record 12 new offices. Management is
clearly focused on growth, but with an eye toward profitability.
OZRK operates a fairly traditional banking model, deriving most of its revenue (79% in 2005) from
spread-based sources. The loan portfolio is somewhat focused on real estate (82% at March 31), with
the balance made up primarily of commercial / industrial, agricultural and consumer loans. The securities
portfolio has been relatively steady at 25-30% of average earning assets in recent years (30% in Q2),
which is a bit higher than necessary in our view, and helps explain the company s high returns. Noninterest-bearing and other low-cost deposits funded 33% of average earning assets in Q2, with time
deposits and borrowing funding 51% and 18%, respectively. At June 30, OZRK had $2.4 billion in
assets, $1.6 Bn in loans and leases, and $1.8 Bn in deposits.
RECENT NEWS
OZRK announced 2nd quarter results on July 13. Net income was $7.9 million, or $0.47 per diluted share
(two cents better than our estimate and a penny ahead of consensus). The quarter was relatively solid in
our view, but not quite as strong as the headline implies. Management had seemed to imply previously
that expense growth would be high, and we had attempted to adjust our forecast accordingly. In the end,
though, both compensation and non-comp expenses were down sequentially, more in line with where we
had been previously. Much of this year s spending is discretionary and lumpy, based on new branches
and new hires. Our thinking at this time is that related spending has likely just been postponed, not
eliminated, and we expect expense growth in each of the next two quarters. As for revenue, net interest
income came in below our projections, rising only 1.7% sequentially, as a 7.4% increase in average loans
was significantly offset by a 23 bp decrease in the margin (to 3.61%). Non-interest income was basically
in line, as was the provision. Our near-term estimates are virtually unchanged at this time, while 07
figures are coming down slightly.
Tax-equivalent net interest income increased by 1.7% sequentially (6.8% year-on-year) to
$19.1 Mn, as 7.0% growth in average earning assets and a longer quarter were partially offset by
a 23 bp drop in net interest margin (to 3.61%). Further margin deterioration remains a possibility,
though the magnitude should be less than in recent quarters (although we said the same thing
last quarter). Average loans and leases grew a strong 7.4% sequentially following their weakest
quarterly showing in several years in Q1. Average deposits were up 9.3% sequentially (25.0%
year-on-year), including nearly 8.5% growth in low-cost deposits. ROA and ROE fell noticeably
on a GAAP basis, after last quarter s shortfalls were masked by huge securities gains. Credit
quality remained outstanding, with net charge-offs annualizing at 0.09% in Q2 (down 1 bp
sequentially) and non-performing loans checking in at 0.18% of total loans (down 6 bps). Capital
remained solid, though tangible equity took a bit of a nosedive, falling 63 bps sequentially 5.9% of
tangible assets. No detail was provided, but the culprit was most likely unrealized securities
losses (the portfolio remains large at 30% of average earning assets in Q2).
VALUATION
OZRK currently trades at 14.4 times the consensus forward estimate (versus 15.9x at the time of our last
full report), in line with the peer group median (vs. a 5% premium at that time). The premium is higher
Zacks Investment Research
Page 2
versus its southeastern peers, which have a lower expected growth rate (8.0% vs. 10%) and now trade at
a median of 13.8 times forward estimates (vs. 14.3 x in mid-April). On a price-to-book basis, the shares
trade at a 42% premium to the peer median, vs. a 61% premium previously.
Current pricing continues to look interesting on a P/E-to-growth (PEG) basis, using the consensus
forward estimate and our own long-term growth rate (no consensus LTGR is currently available).
OZRK s P/E-to-growth (PEG) ratio on this basis is 1.03, a 29% discount to the 1.45 median for the peer
group (vs. a 25% discount previously). On a price-to-book basis, however, the 42% premium looks fair
given an ROE 55% above median (and falling).
The quantitative Zacks Rank for OZRK is currently 4 (down from 3 on April 12), indicating some
likelihood for downward pressure on the shares over the near term. Short interest remains extremely
high at 54.1 days, though down from 59.5 days previously.
Industry Comparables (small-cap banks)
P/E using
trailing 12
mo EPS
P/E using 5 yr Avg Return on Return on
4 qtr Est trailing P/E
Equity
Assets
Price/
Book
OZRK
15.4
14.4
17.1
22.3
1.57
3.28
median
average
high
low
16.2
16.9
25.0
10.1
14.4
14.8
21.1
7.9
16.7
17.0
21.4
13.9
14.4
15.7
26.8
6.6
1.33
1.34
2.12
0.72
2.31
2.44
4.23
1.44
Next 3-5 Yr
Est EPS
Gr rate
Div Yield
1.3
10.0
11.3
18.5
6.0
2.0
2.0
4.9
-----
Our new $32 target assumes that the shares will trade at 3.34 projected book value six months out,
which also equates to 13.6 times our own forward estimate at that time. Combined the dividend, this
equates to a 7.3% expected total return over the period.
BULL STORY
OZRK remains a growth story among the banking universe, generating consistent growth in both revenue
and earnings in recent years. The majority of this growth has come from its de novo branching strategy
(embarked on in 1994). OZRK opened six new branches in 2005, expanded another, and replaced two
temporary facilities with permanent ones. Management intends to continue this strategy in 2006, adding
as many as 12 new offices (and replacing two more temporary facilities), three of which have been
opened year-to-date.
De novo branching is often an expensive way to grow, but OZRK has managed to grow tremendously in
recent years while improving the firm s cost structure at the same time, with the efficiency ratio reaching a
new record as recently as Q4. Management continues to reiterate its focus on profitable growth. This is
often a stated goal, but OZRK remains a fairly rare example of demonstrable success. ROA and ROE
remain well ahead of the peer medians, at roughly 1.55% and 22% over the last 12 months, respectively.
Both loan growth and deposit growth improved significantly in Q2, with average balances up 23.2% and
25%, respectively, year-over-year. As was noted on the Q4 call, deposit strategy has turned more
aggressive, and we might expect deposit growth rates in the mid-teens to low 20s (matching their general
expectation for loan growth), with some related pressure on the margin. Variable rate loans remain a
growing component of OZRK s portfolio, continuing to improve its rate positioning at the margin. Credit
quality remains solid, with non-performing loans representing 0.18% of total loans at June 30, and an
allowance equating to 5.5 times NPAs and 1.12% of total loans.
Zacks Investment Research
Page 3
BEAR STORY
We believe that P/B generally acts as a constraining factor for the shares (typically among the highest
P/B of all the small-cap banks we track), which could easily trade higher on a PEG basis. Given the
lower ROE in Q2 and probably throughout 2006, we think that the decline in P/B was justified, though we
expect it to be more stable going forward.
Margin compression also remains a concern (for all the banks) in the near future. Compression
continued in Q2, exceeding even the magnitude of the Q1 decline, with NIM falling another 23 bps
sequentially to 3.61%. The primary culprit was again management s deposit initiative, as a number of
deposit products were re-priced in late January. A flat yield curve and stiff competition certainly did not
help. Further margin deterioration remains a possibility, though the magnitude should be less than in
recent quarters (although we said the same thing last quarter).
Concentration risk is also significant to OZRK. One example of this is in credit risk. OZRK saw
significant deterioration in credit quality in late 2004 (with non-performing loans more than doubling as a
percent of total loans during the course of one quarter) on the back of a single credit relationship. While
not indicative of a downward trend, it highlights an aspect of concentration risk that exists in smaller
institutions. OZRK faces other forms of concentration risk, in our view, with 80% of revenue from net
interest income, 80% of loans based on real estate, and 95% of branches in Arkansas.
PROJECTED INCOME STATEMENT & BALANCE SHEET
Bank of the Ozarks, Inc.
Income Statement and Balance Sheet
(Dollars in millions, except EPS data)
Net interest income
Non-interest income
Net revenue (not FTE)
Loan loss provisions
Non-interest expense
Income taxes & other
Zacks adjusted income
before NRI
GAAP net income
Diluted EPS before NRI
Reported EPS
Loans & leases
Investment securities
Total assets
Deposits
Other liabilities
Shareholders' equity
Zacks Investment Research
12/02
40
12
52
4
25
9
12/03
49
17
66
4
32
10
12/04
61
18
79
3
38
12
12/05
69
19
88
2
40
14
12/06 E
74
22
96
3
45
15
12/07 E
90
23
114
5
51
18
14
14
0.92
0.92
20
20
1.24
1.24
26
26
1.56
1.56
31
31
1.88
1.88
34
34
1.99
1.99
40
40
2.36
2.36
718
232
1,036
790
173
73
909
364
1,387
1,062
226
98
1,135
435
1,727
1,380
226
121
1,371
574
2,135
1,592
394
149
1,730
740
2,710
2,050
500
160
2,080
910
3,270
2,540
540
190
Page 4
HISTORICAL ZACKS RECOMMENDATIONS
DISCLOSURES
The analysts contributing to this report do not hold any shares of OZRK. Zacks EPS and revenue forecasts are not consensus
forecasts. Additionally, the analysts contributing to this report certify that the views expressed herein accurately reflect the analysts personal
views as to the subject securities and issuers. Zacks certifies that no part of the analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendation or views expressed by the analyst in the report. Additional information on the securities mentioned in this
report is available upon request. This report is based on data obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to
accuracy and does not purport to be complete. Because of individual objectives, the report should not be construed as advice designed to meet
the particular investment needs of any investor. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change. This report is not to be construed as an
offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities herein mentioned. Zacks or its officers, employees or customers may have a
position long or short in the securities mentioned and buy or sell the securities from time to time. Zacks uses the following rating system for the
securities it covers. Buy- Zacks expects that the subject company will outperform the broader U.S. equity market over the next one to two
quarters. Hold- Zacks expects that the company will perform in line with the broader U.S. equity market over the next one to two quarters. SellZacks expects the company will under perform the broader U.S. Equity market over the next one to two quarters. The current distribution of
Zacks Ratings is as follows on the 1128 companies covered: Buy- 21.5%, Hold- 73.9%, Sell 4.5%. Data is as of midnight on the business day
immediately prior to this publication.
Zacks Investment Research
Page 5
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