PDF Africa's Next Automotive Hub - PwC
PwC Nigeria Automotive Industry
ng
Africa's Next Automotive Hub
30%
New vehicles were sold to retail customers i.e individual or home unit purchasers, in 2014.
63%
Nigerian households cannot afford to own a car without some kind of support.
70%
New cars sold will be manufactured or assembled in Nigeria by 2050
ng
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Contents
Evolution of Nigeria's Automotive Industry
6
PwC Projections: 2015-2050
9
The Current Situation
19
The Nigeria new vehicle market
21
The Nigeria used vehicle market
26
Vehicle manufacturing and assembly
30
in Nigeria
Outlook, Challenges and Opportunities
33
Total car sales
410,000
Source: PwC Analysis
81 Motorisation Rate Number of passenger cars per 1000 inhabitants
Source: World Bank, PwC Analysis
Ratio of new cars to used cars on Nigerian roads
1
New car
Source: PwC Analysis
131
Used cars
Number of companies granted license to assemble
35
The Punch Newspaper 29 September 2015
Sales Ratio Used Cars:New Cars
75%:25%
Source: MINACs' data, UN Comtrade, PwC Analysis
Total number of cars on the road
14million
Source: WHO, PwC Analysis
Age Distribution: Used Cars
0-5 years 11%
6-11 years
26%
12-18 years
19+ years
13%
Source: FRSC, PwC Analysis
50%
Import Tariff on FBU, SKD and CKD respectively
75%:10%:0%
Source: NADDC Next
PwC Scenario at a glance
2015 Scenario 1
Imported Used
(Also known as Tokunbo)
335,000
Imported New
(Includes grey imports)
90,840
Assembled/ Manufactured New 30,200
Total Number of Cars (PwC analysis, most recent value is WHO estimate as at 2011)
14,460,000
Nigerian Used 144,000
2050 Scenario 1
Imported Used
(Also known as Tokunbo)
0 Imported New
762,900
Assembled/ Manufactured New 6,866,000
Total Number of Cars
69,160,000
Nigerian Used 30,140,000
Previous
PwC Nigeria Automotive Industry
5
2050 Scenario 2
Imported Used
(Also known as Tokunbo)
0
Imported New
Total Number of Cars
40,400,000
462,500
Assembled/ Manufactured New 4,162,000
Nigerian Used 18,270,000
2050 Scenario 3
Imported Used
(Also known as Tokunbo)
0 Imported New
600,900
Assembled/ Manufactured New 1,803,000
Total Number of Cars
27,310,000
Nigerian Used 9,494,000
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Evolution of Nigeria's Automotive Industry
Table of Content
PwC Nigeria Automotive Industry
7
Evolution of Nigeria's Automotive Industry
Nigeria has the potential to become the hub of Africa's automotive industry. Home to an estimated 170 million people, over 40 million of who are in the growing middle class, the continent's largest economy is increasingly seen as an attractive destination for investors across all sectors. The largely import dependent automotive industry has become the focus of this attention in recent times.
Golden Age: 1960s ? 1980s The Nigerian Auto Industry has for years been largely import driven although this has not always been the case. In the early 1960s, private companies such as the UAC, Leventis, SCOA and R.T. Briscoe pioneered Completely Knocked Down (CKD) or Semi-Knocked Down (SKD) auto assembly in the country. Subsequently in the 1970s and 1980s, the Federal Government also set up state-owned plants across the country via agreements with European Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM): Peugeot Nigeria Limited (PAN), Styer Nigeria Limited and National Truck Manufacturers (NTM) in the North of Nigeria; Volkswagen of Nigeria Limited (VON) and Leyland Nigeria Limited in the South, Anambra Motor Manufacturing Company (ANAMMCO) in the East.
Decline: 1990s - 2013 Unfortunately, as the country became more dependent on oil, the local auto industry capacity utilisation reduced significantly. In a bid to jumpstart the auto industry, the National Automotive Council (NAC) was established in 1990 with a mandate to facilitate the production of components and vehicles. This policy and other future attempts by government failed to revive the automobile industry resulting in the government divesting its interest in Peugeot and Volkswagen. Following the privatisation exercise between 2001 and 2005, these companies lost their exclusive right to government tenders leading to a gradual end of assembling in the country.
Previous
8 assembly plants with a combined capacity of 168,500
Pre-1980
Utilisation of assembly plants drops to approximately. 10% - 20%
Government privatises its stake in VON and PAN
1990s
2005
Infrequent production continues. Assembly is non existent
Two years after the auto policy is implemented, three assembly plants have begun CKD production
2010
2015
Next
Evolution of Nigeria's Automotive Industry
The new policy has attracted a number of top brands, with three already commencing assembly in Nigeria as at 2015
Kick Start In order to harness the potential, the Nigerian government in 2013 announced a new national automotive policy, the National Automotive Industry Development Plan (NAIDP), which seeks to discourage vehicle importation and encourage local production. The NAC (Nigeria Automotive Council) now the NADDC (National Automotive Design and Development Council) seeks to ensure timely execution of the provisions of the policy as part of its mandate to revitalise the auto industry.
Industry experts believe that Nigeria's potential annual new-car market could be as high as One million. However, it currently sits at about 56,000 in a used vehicle dominated market. The National Automotive Design and Development Council (NADDC) estimates annual imports at about 400,000 vehicles (100,000 new and 300,000 used), valued at about US$3.45bn. Local
production capacity is about 100,000, but utilisation has over the years dropped to less than 15%. The NADDC believes the automotive industry, which currently employs around 2,600 workers, has the potential to generate 70,000 direct jobs and 210,000 indirect ones.
The new policy has attracted a number of top brands, with three already commencing assembly in Nigeria as at 2015. Also, 30 other brands have signed commitments with technical partners and obtained licenses to assemble passenger cars, sports utility vehicles(SUVs), buses and trucks in the country.
Information for this report was obtained through interviews, consumer surveys, mystery shopping and analysis of data from the Nigeria Customs Service, Federal Road Safety Commission, Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority, Lagos Concession Company, Minacs and United Nation Comtrade.
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Table of Content
PwC Nigeria Automotive Industry
9
PwC Projections: 2015 -2050 The potential in the road ahead
Tokunbo cars will become non-existent as a direct result of local production by 2044
Given the intent shown by the Nigerian government, PwC developed growth projections for the Nigerian automotive industry. The growth projections highlight the potential of the industry and present three different scenarios for the industry till 2050.
In these scenarios, growth is measured in term of car sales and we have assumed it to be dependent on GDP. As a result we use PwC's The World in 2050, a report that forecasts economic growth for 32 of the largest economies in the world, for the period 2014 ? 50.
Researching the relationship between GDP and car sales for other emerging countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia, we discovered
that generally, there was a direct relationship between new car sales growth rate and GDP growth rate.
We project that with continued government support, the Nigeria auto industry will begin actual manufacturing with components sourced from within, potentially generating over 6 million new cars locally by 2050. Imported used vehicles popularly referred to as Tokunbo cars will become non-existent as a direct result of local production.
This projected growth requires sustained and effective investment in the auto industry made only possible by the government implementing political, economic and legal policies that create a suitable environment for such investment.
Road Ahead
New Cars
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Used Cars
Manufacturing
Manufacturing
Manufacturing Manufacturing
Current Situation
Projections
Evolution
Road Ahead
Next
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